Cal has a major problem now against good teams. Duke has provided a blueprint on how to shutdown Cal's offense. The Bears have lost 3 out of 6 games and almost certainly will go down again tomorrow at Notre Dame. With that 6th defeat, Cal will drop out of the top 25. I'm predicting the outcome to be 80-60. The Fighting Irish are 11-0 at home. The only two competitive games were victories over Texas and UConn by 10 & 11 points, respectively. ND lost two games in a tournament in the Cayman Islands early in the season. Their overall record is 20-2 and they're ranked #3 in the nation.

2024-2025 California Women's Basketball (PDF) - California Golden Bears Athletics

Clemson upset Cal in their 1st ACC road game by 11 points. The Bears were able to run their offense but simply suffered a cold shooting night. The Bears hit 4 out of 20 three pointers with Ioanna Krimili making 3. The other three shooters that regularly make treys [ Lulu Twidale, Marta Suarez & Kayla Williams] went 0-3 each. As a result, the Bears scored a season low of 58 points.

The Bears have actually played amazingly well this season. Their defense improved 8-9 points per game as compared to last season. Believe it or not, the most that any team has scored against Cal this season to date is 78 points. It was the infamous lost to Michigan State in Palm Springs. The Bears were in control 60-48 after three quarters but folded like a suitcase in the final stanza, 30-12. Cal's initial loss of the season was that 78-72 debacle.

If one reviews Cal's games, the team usually has scored in the seventies or eighties. The team average was 78+ for most of the season. If the Bears can run their offense, they win. However, when they cannot, they lose. Cal traveled to Chapel Hill, North Carolina to meet Duke on January 16th. The Blue Devils emphasize defense first. Their players were faster than Cal's personnel. The Bears could not pass easily or even hand the ball off to one another coming off of screens. Duke held Cal to 20 points below their season low and humiliated them, 72-38.

Since then, when the Bears were able to execute their offense, they have won. However, North Carolina shut down the offense and defeated Cal in Berkeley, 65-52. Last Thursday night, a very athletic and fast Louisville team had too much depth and forced Cal into 23 turnovers in a 70-63 loss in front of 7000 rabid fans.

WBB-Season-6.pdf

Notre Dame is a bad matchup for Cal. The Fighting Irish have the best backcourt in the country and have a roster loaded with size and athleticism. Cal averaged more than 10 threes per game for a while, but it has now been reduced to only 7.8 treys. ND averages 7.9. They outrebound their opposition by ten. However, the key to their victory tomorrow will be their ability to force more than 20 turnovers against Cal. The Fighting Irish annihilated Stanford by 49 points last Thursday. They forced the Cardinal into a season high of 29 TOs.

In summary, I cannot think of any stat that Notre Dame cannot win tomorrow. This is the reason that I am not going to go through the player breakdowns like I normally do. Maybe if ND allows Cal to run their offense, they can stay within 15 points like GA Tech did. Unfortunately, I doubt that is a likely outcome. GO BEARS!

Cal has an offense?

Bears fundamentals are lacking. ND very good, but Bears making so many mistakes this late in the season is not good.

Cal players sometimes just need to shoot when they drive deep into the paint… maybe draw a foul

ND has super offensive but we are getting better shots than against Syracuse so we have a shot

Like playing an all-star team. They are strong at every position and bought in on the defensive end as well.

Last foul was a flop but ND is a scoring machine and we have to have Michelle on the floor to have any type of interior defense and rebounding (ND has 6 offensive rebounds, many of which were lucky)

Bears do not lean into their drives and take the contact. So often they lob up their drives, layups, and post shots hopefully but with no commitment to take a foul or get the ball up off the glass. Airballs and undirected shots instead. ND on the other hand is going hard to the glass and leaning into their shots.

Not to harp, but the ND entry passes reach their teammate in ideal position...unlike Cal passes that the past few games are either too high, hit the basket, or just put their teammate in a bad spot.

ND playing like a scrimmage now.

We've played some good teams the past few weeks, but that does not explain away our deteriorating performances. We are not peaking and right now a post season run does not look likely.

Great observation

blungld said:

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Bears do not lean into their drives and take the contact. So often the lob up their drives, layups, and post shots hopefully but with no commitment to take a foul or get the ball up off the glass. Airballs and undirected shots instead. ND on the other hand is going hard to the glass and leaning into their shots.

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ND is a buzz saw

will be in NC game

Maybe ucla/ND

It's a slaughter.

ND dishing some Jason Kiddesque passes.

They are not only shedding our defense but they are making difficult shots from all over the court

I think we should mix in some of our bench players as this is not good for our starters confidence…

Notre Dame's guards are elite. I could easily see the Fighting Irish winning it all.

Cal scored more points than Stanford and held ND to fewer points than Stanford

So there's that

Was hoping Cal would be more competitive but it gets totally discombobulated against elite teams. Suarez had nine turnovers and that just can't happen. Charmin may have to bench players who are careless with ball but something has to change with the turnovers or Cal will get eliminated in the first round of the tournament.

Stanford is playing without their top player, Nunu Agara.

Cal gave up 13 more points today (91) than it has in any other game this season. This is the second slaughter this year with Notre Dame and Duke obliterating Cal by 39 & 34 points, respectively. Bears do not have talent like ND's 7 McDonald's All-Americans on their roster. As a matter of fact, Cal currently has zero. Marta Suarez was a turnover machine out there with 9 of the team's 21. I saw very little defense being played by the Bears. Ioanna Krimili's three-point shots were not close.

Cal needs to focus on the next two home games versus Boston College & Syracuse. Both teams are 4-8 in the ACC. Boston College is 13-12 while Syracuse is 10-13 on the season. The Bears must climb into 20-win territory
and build their resume for the post season for the highest seed possible.

No. 21 Cal Unable To Upset No. 3 Notre Dame - California Golden Bears Athletics

Who put this headline up? I also disagree with Charmin Smith's comments about how her team could play at Notre Dame's elite level but could not sustain it for forty minutes. The Fighting Irish outscored the Bears by approximately 20 points in each half.

As things change in college sports, it is interesting that ESPN predicts that only five former PAC12 teams will now make the tournament this year. Oregon State and Washington State are long gone and Stanford, Arizona, Washington and Colorado are also apparently out of the picture, along with Arizona State,

annarborbear said:

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As things change in college sports, it is interesting that ESPN predicts that only five former PAC12 teams will now make the tournament this year. Oregon State and Washington State are long gone and Stanford, Arizona, Washington and Colorado are also apparently out of the picture, along with Arizona State,

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ucla should be a 1 seed, and I think usc will be a 2 seed

cal maybe a 5 or 6

This is how NET rating works
Interesting is margin of victory ... only a factor if you win or lose by 10 or more (I think this is reasonable and glad they don't award wins of 20+ which just encourages the wrong things) and I'm sure coaches are conscious of this.

We've only lost by 10+ twice (to duke and UNC):

Key Components of NET Rating:


1. Game Results:
Win or loss, home or away, and strength of opponent matter. Winning games is essential, but who you beat and where you beat them plays a big role.

2. Strength of Schedule:
The strength of opponents faced (both non-conference and conference) is a critical component.

3. Game Location:
Wins on the road are given more weight than home wins.
Similarly, home losses may hurt a team more than road losses.

4. Scoring Margin (Limited to 10 Points Max):
Margin of victory or defeat is capped at 10 points per game.
This means that winning by 20 points or 40 points won't matter more than winning by 10 points.
The purpose of the cap is to prevent teams from "running up the score" to artificially boost their rating.

5. Offensive and Defensive Efficiency:
Efficiency metrics measure how well a team scores and prevents scoring per possession.
NET incorporates offensive efficiency (points per possession scored) and defensive efficiency (points per possession allowed), rewarding teams that dominate on both ends of the court.

6. Quad Wins System:
Wins and losses are categorized into four "Quadrants" based on the location of the game and opponent strength:
Quad 1: Home vs. Top 30, Neutral vs. Top 50, Away vs. Top 75
Quad 2: Home vs. 31-75, Neutral vs. 51-100, Away vs. 76-135
Quad 3: Home vs. 76-160, Neutral vs. 101-200, Away vs. 136-240
Quad 4: Home vs. 161+, Neutral vs. 201+, Away vs. 241+
Wins in Quad 1 and 2 games carry much more weight than wins in Quad 3 and 4.

more on NET:

Differences Between Men's and Women's NET


1. Components & Transparency:
For men's basketball, the NET originally included two main components: adjusted net efficiency and team value index (TVI). The NCAA has become less specific about these public breakdowns in recent years, but men's NET generally emphasizes efficiency (offense/defense per possession) and game location.

Women's basketball NET is believed to incorporate a wider variety of performance metrics, possibly including additional factors like offensive/defensive rebounds or turnovers. However, the exact formula is less publicly detailed.

2. Historical Weight in Selection:
The men's selection committee historically puts a heavier emphasis on Quad 1 wins when comparing bubble teams.
Women's selection tends to be more holistic, looking beyond just Quad wins and efficiency, possibly weighing head-to-head results and conference standing more prominently.

3. Strength of Schedule Importance:
In women's basketball, strength of schedule is a critical factor due to discrepancies in power conferences compared to mid-majors.
The men's committee also values strength of schedule, but Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins carry even more weight.

In the complicated world of NET, we are now rated #35. Only one of the six ACC teams left on our schedule, Georgia Tech, has a higher NET ranking than we do. Not sure what it all means, but we probably can't climb much higher given that schedule.

annarborbear said:

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In the complicated world of NET, we are now rated #35. Only one of the six ACC teams left on our schedule, Georgia Tech, has a higher NET ranking than we do. Not sure what it all means, but we probably can't climb much higher given that schedule.

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fortunately 4 home games and only 2 road games left

just need to win, especially at home

HoopDreams said:

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annarborbear said:

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As things change in college sports, it is interesting that ESPN predicts that only five former PAC12 teams will now make the tournament this year. Oregon State and Washington State are long gone and Stanford, Arizona, Washington and Colorado are also apparently out of the picture, along with Arizona State,

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ucla should be a 1 seed, and I think usc will be a 2 seed

cal maybe a 5 or 6

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UCLA and USC both picked up key portal transfers from other declining former PAC12 members. I guess this will continue as players follow wins, championships, national recognition and related increasing NIL.