Stanford (8-2)

5,888 Views | 43 Replies | Last: 5 mo ago by Schroeder71
Schroeder71
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I have not seen the Cardinal perform so far this season. I analyzed everything and noticed that Stanford has had some inexplicable happenings going on. My question simply is which version of Stanford will Cal see tomorrow afternoon in Palo Alto.
2025-26 Stanford Women's Basketball Combined Stats.pdf - Stanford Cardinal - Official Athletics Website

Stanford opened the season undefeated (7-0), outscoring opponents by approximately twenty points. As a matter of fact, none of those opponents even reached sixty points vs the Cardinal defense. Then, something*changed.* Stanford has had three consecutive tight games in which they have only been able to score 62 points. At a Las Vegas Tournament, they lost 66-62 to Florida Gulf Coast. Stanford rebounded the 2nd day and outlasted Colorado State, 62-60. The final game was a heartbreaking loss at home against SEC power, Tennessee. The Vols squeaked out a 65-62 victory in front of 4499 in Palo Alto.

The 7-0 version of the team had a relatively easy schedule, and the Cardinal took care of business. If Stanford returns to form and outscores their opposition by 19.7 ppg (72.9-53.2), Cal will likely lose. The Cardinal has not played for 11 days due to finals. They have had time to think about things and attempt to regroup for tomorrow against Cal. If the Cardinal continues to perform in a malaise like they did recently, the Bears have a shot at an upset. Cal lost two in row to SEC teams but played well in their last two wins.

Women's Basketball 2025-26 - Stanford Cardinal - Official Athletics Website

I will quickly review HC Kate Paye's eight player rotation and her team's strengths and weaknesses. I will predict an outcome and point out what Charmin Smith's charges will have to accomplish to come out on top.

The starting lineup is led by 6-2 junior PF Nunu Agara (#3). She is a physical warrior. Agara is both tops in scoring (15.8) & rebounding (8.8). She is very dangerous on the offensive boards with 3.4 per game. Courtney Ogden is a 6-1 junior SF/wing that typically registers 7.3 points per contest. Their starting center is 6-3 frosh, Lara Somfai, rated the #12 prep nationally (ESPN). She is 3rd in scoring (10.7 points) + 2nd in rebounding with 8.6. The Aussie is tops in blocked shots w/9. Another highly regarded freshman, 5-10 SG Hailee Swain (#2), is fourth in offensive production (9.2). She is rated by ESPN as the #8 prospect in the country. The job of point guard is once again filled by 5-7 junior Talana Lepolo. She missed last season due to injury. The former Carondolet star adds 4.9 points to the cause and averages 2.9 assists per game. Lepolo is 2nd in treys (9) and 3rd in steals (14) on the team.

The crucial sixth "man" is 5-9 junior combo guard, Chloe Clardy (#13), who averages 30 minutes on the floor. She is a catalyst that makes positive things happen for the Cardinal. She is the team's 2nd offensive threat with 11.9 points and generates 2.8 assists/g. Clardy is clutch. She is 2nd in three-pointers made w/14. On defense, Chloe averages 2 steals as well. These six players all play 21 to 30.5 minutes. Two others play spot minutes to complete the rotation. Mary Ashley Stevenson is a 6-2 junior PF who averages 4.3 points & 4.5 boards. Frosh 6-5 center, Alex Eschmeyer, is rated #21 nationally and puts up 4.3 points and 3.9 rebounds. She's second in blocked shots w/8.

I noticed some changes on this 2025-26 team as compared to recent Stanford squads. The one strength that they still possess is height and rebounding prowess. The Cardinal usually has two inside post players in the game at the same time in Agara & Somfai. This a big reason why they out-board their opposition 41.8 to 28.5 or by a margin of 13.3. Cal must counter is some fashion to stay close. The changes in the character of the Stanford team seems to be in ball-handling and outside shooting. Under Tara van Derveer, they used to generate between 15-20 assists. Now-it's closer to 15. The Cardinal used to be a volume three-point shooting team and often make double-digit treys. This year the team is making only 5.3. The two freshmen that are in the starting lineup have horrific shooting percentages from long distance. If Cal can double up the Stanford threes tomorrow and out-assist the home team, the Bears have a shot.

Since Cal swept Stanford last season, I have a feeling that the teams will split this year. My prediction is the home team emerges on top, 67-65, in the ACC opener. Hopefully-I'll be wrong, but I should be more accurate in the next "Battle of the Bay" in Berkeley
Woodacre
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So far, good enough…Cal 15, Stanford 13, end of 1st. Taylor's been hot.
smh
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Woodacre said:

So far, good enough…Cal 15, Stanford 13, end of 1st. Taylor's been hot.

thru the first quarter, who'd a guessed, bears were never behind

[ late add, oh yeah, mostdef Hexed us, sorrry ]
annarborbear
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Bad day to have Walker off her shooting game inside. Will have to play Ojukwu more minutes.
kc1121
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getting some fortunate 2nd chance points.
Schroeder71
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Lulu picks up two fouls in 1st quarter. Stanford missed a half dozen layups in initial quarter. Sakima Walker missed a cripple. Bears up 2 at end of first period.

At intermission, Cardinal leads 34-31. They have their quota of threes (5) in the 1st half. Bears have made only one. Stanford has connected on 8 assists already! Cal only has 3 assists.

Cal has three players providing all of the offense: Barnes 10, Sheppard 9 & Ojukwu 8. Nobody else had more than 2 points. Two key scorers, Twidale & Maul, are scoreless. Walker & Morris have one basket. Puff is 1-7 from the floor.

Cal needs to diversify the offense and hit some treys if they want to stay in this game. GO BEARS!
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The Aussie starts the second half with two quick buckets vs Walker. She has outscored her 9-2 and outrebounded her, 9-2. We need Sakima to step up or substitute Naya.

Mid-way thru the 3rd, game is tied 46-46! Barnes, Lulu & Walker coming to life. Cal is sharing the ball w/ four assists already. Puff & Maul also contribute to 55-52 rally at the end of third quarter. Naya Ojukwu has zero fouls so she is available to make things happen down the stretch.

Cardinal is lucky & good during 12-2 run in fourth quarter! Bears have missed layups by Maul (2), Sheppard & Ojukwu. Stanford runs away from Cal and triumphs, 78-69. Twidale fouls out in 17 minutes with only 1 trey.

Ogden is Cardinal MVP with 25 points. She entered the game averaging 7.3 ppg. Stanford hit 8 treys while averaging 5.3 coming in. Ball-handling superior to their stats w/ 13 assists and only 6 turnovers. Cal only lost the rebound battle by 2 (42-40). Maul & Ojukwu grabbed 10 & 6, respectively.
CalFanatic
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What a way to end the 3rd! Great job, Puff!
HoopDreams
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Really like Maul's D
HoopDreams
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Puff at buzzer!
kc1121
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on a few minute delay?

that Puff layup was nice.
CalFanatic
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Can't make anything right now in the 4th. Not looking good for us.

Back to back Stanford 3's. 12-0 Furd run.
kc1121
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The one that banked in hurt...

and then the clardy buzzer beater...
CalFanatic
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Need Twidale to get back to form. 5 points on 1-5 shooting (in only 17 minutes) is not going to do it for us this year.
HoopDreams
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Lulu's 4th foul was horrendous call, and her 5th was very questionable…. Should have been no call
Woodacre
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Only 7 turnovers so far. Cal's gotten much better.
gwashburn14
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Hadn't watched much Stanford this season, thought from this game Ogden was its leading scorer. She averages 7.3 points per game. Her production, some of the fortunate threes and Cal unable to hit threes of its own was the difference here. Cal shot 37 percent and did not execute well after taking that 57-52 lead. Tough loss.
HoopDreams
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Walker had a strong game although only 2 rebounds. Great to see her back to the basket game develop as a go to player now

Does Naya possibly have another season with a waiver for her first season where she only played 4 games? (did she get injured?)
annarborbear
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Great effort. But Lulu going 1-5 and Puff 4-15 is a problem, and needs some new approach. Puff setting Lulu up for more and better shots would be a better strategy.
polarbear
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They are going to have to win games like this, Vanderbilt, Auburn, and Missouri if they want to have a winning season much less a NCAA tournament invite. I think last year's team would have won all four and now we have U$C coming up!
ethan0l
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I am enjoying watching this team grow. I don't want to be so sanguine as the other poster who said we're a WNIT team, but I wonder if that is a more realistic view of things.

I should say, Sakima and Puff look like very different players from the beginning of the season. If they keep improving that absolutely gives us significant upside. On the other hand, unless Lulu finds her shot and returns to her 2024-2025 form, that definitely hampers our chances to close out strong and make the NCAA.

I know we're a young team, so that's exciting long term but I do wish we were firing on more cylinders right now.
smh
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polarbear said:

.. and now we have U$C coming up!

oh yeah, and i hear their coach is pretty smart too something

fingers crossed refs serve us some home cooking, as they did down on the farm, esp towards the end
Shocky1
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https://instagr.am/p/DSQr635kgi2
stanford cardinals 78
california golden bears 69

good news: continued ball security development/limiting wasted possessions with less ill advised 1 handed passes (particularly cross court thru traffic) & moving screens with only 7 turnovers against a +1 athletic opponent with length

bad news: failing to play together (just like with michelle & gabby last season basically wasting abigor's special interior post defensive gifts & protecting onyiah from foul trouble) sakima (13 points with 2 boards in 25 minutes) & naya (an unreal 9 points with 6 boards in only 15 minutes) on the court at the same time, what happens if ojuwku's minutes are doubled with the TWIN TOWERS controlling the paint??

them FUN bears (8-4) battle the lindsay gottlieb (who is widely flexible/innovative along with being a dynamic fundraiser & at some point will win a national championship) #16 ranked usc trojans (7-3) next sunday at chase arena in san francisco
3Cats4CAL
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So far Lulu is a major disappointment this year and Puff can't excel like in high school due to more elite competition and due to her height disadvantage; Maybe there's a reason why the top tier schools don't recruit the real short players... Donez doesn't score much and zero production from Langarita like previous years. On the plus side, most of the other newer players like Sheppard, Barnes, Ojukwu, Maul and Walker are playing well and at Walker isn't foul prone like Michelle was last year. Can't blame Coach Smith with what she has to work with.
Strykur
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3Cats4CAL said:

Can't blame Coach Smith with what she has to work with.

It's year 7
BearBint
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Strykur said:

3Cats4CAL said:

Can't blame Coach Smith with what she has to work with.

It's year 7

Can't blame her for Covid, either, or for the rather sudden switch of transfers from sit-for-a-season to immediate play. Nor for NIL. I wouldn't want to be an NCAA coach right now, in the midst of student-athletes becoming employees, and amateur athletics a business. I think Tara got out at the right time.
"Don't get distracted, myself. Don't get distracted." Self-talk from a young relative
Shocky1
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^ wrong, charmin recruited tiny guards her first couple of seasons that couldn't defend anybody, the existing players from the gottlieb era of recruiting didn't want to play for her like forbes when she wuz hired as head coach despite knowing her as an assistant coach, the revolving door of assistant coaches which had negatively impacted recruiting & her introverted personality which is not well suited to fundraising for nil dollars

it's year 7, charmin's results are 100% due to her decision making & this season she is wasting the talents of naya by stubbornly refusing to play her with sakima on the court at the same time just like she wasted the spectacular interior defensive talents of gabby last season by refusing to play her with michelle at the same time

smith is a good person but not an adaptable innovative head coach
RedlessWardrobe
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In fairness to Charmin, she was expecting to have Gabby this year to go along with Sakima and Naya.

What is still unclear is whether Naya's minutes are being limited due to strategy or Naya's health. If Naya has the ability to go 30 minutes then I would agree with Shocky - why not use some of those minutes and have Sakima and Naya on the court at the same time? But if it's a health issue that's limiting Naya's playing time, my guess is Charmin feels that Naya needs to be used when Sakima is resting. With all due respect to Claudia, she is just not cutting it this season.
ClayK
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I thought I recorded this game -- is there anywhere I can watch it?
smh
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ClayK said:

I thought I recorded this game -- is there anywhere I can watch it?

just in case re-tried yesterday's espn streaming link, but no soap. sorry Clay
HairOfTheBear
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ClayK said:

I thought I recorded this game -- is there anywhere I can watch it?

ACC Digital Network online (FREE on YouTube) only has the highlights and the condensed game versions. The full version usually takes a full 24 hours or so before going up.

Here is the Condensed Game from the ACC:




Pro tip: If one selects subscribe (it's free) the ACC Digital Network will be really easy to find when you are looking for ACC sports highlight and games. They do a much better job of getting games online than we ever experienced with the almost non existent PAC 12 Network.

I also love that they do condensed game versions in addition to full game, especially when trying to watch another team where I don't really wanna listen or watch "everything". Kind of a quick way to scout.
Shocky1
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redless, there's very little transparency re: the wbb program (which is a major factor in building a fanbase & nil level donors), if naya can't play 30 minutes then charmin should make that clear, right??

u don't get to wish for players returning, u got wut u got, and the reality is that in gabby's time in berkeley it wuz wasted by smith's inability to get her best players on the floor at the same time with TWIN TOWERS

michelle's foul problems usually occurred on dumb azz away from the ball lower body banging with opposing 5's, if she could've slid to the 4 she would've been defending more athletic less physical post players which would've mitigated her foul issues

tara played 2 posts all the time that played championship tough interior defense limiting buckets around the rim that also dominated the boards, charmin has not figured this out yet & perhaps if she would seek counsel from her mentor we might see sakima and naya on the floor together in the future
3Cats4CAL
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But if you play Sakima and Naya at the same time you risk both piling up fouls at the same time and who do you use as a backup sub? We don't have a reliable third sub in for that position like Tara would have.
RedlessWardrobe
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Shocky, I absolutely agree with you about the transparency of Cal WBB. At this point I don't think Charmin would be "giving anything away" if she was clearer about Naya's health. And again, to echo your other point about marketing - how the Cal athletic department cannot capitalize on the constantly growing interest in Women's basketball, especially considering the Valykyries immediate success and interest, is beyond me.
annarborbear
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Winning is needed to draw crowds. But an enjoyable game day experience is needed to get them to come back. Our marketing people appear to talk among themselves rather than to actual customers.
RedlessWardrobe
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3Cats4CAL said:

But if you play Sakima and Naya at the same time you risk both piling up fouls at the same time and who do you use as a backup sub? We don't have a reliable third sub in for that position like Tara would have.

While your concern is valid, the reality is that any player in WCB should be able to play 30 minutes without commiting more than 4 fouls maximum. While Naya is more prone to foul (1 in every 5.5 minutes), Sakima is not (1 foul in every 10.5 minutes). And it stands to reason that if Naya was on the court more often with Sakima, her foul ratio would actually drop. Also, playing them together doesn't mean they have to be on and off the court simultaneosly the whole time. Their minutes can be "staggered" in a rotation in which there is a combination of overlapping and a few minutes of individual time on the court.
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