My prediction for New Year's Day is UNC 70, Cal 60. I watched the Tarheels game last Monday @. Boston College. This year's team is quite a bit different than last year's group that defeated the Bears in Berkeley, 65-52.
UNC played a seven-player rotation to solve Cal at Haas. The Bears are 24-1 at home with the only loss coming at the hands of the Tarheels. Four of those seven that played between 16-36 minutes have graduated. They were primarily a defensive team that was offensively challenged. This year's contingent of ten players is much deeper, faster and athletic. UNC 2025-26 is an offensive team first and not as good on defense. UNC has a trio of 6-1 guards which is going to make life difficult for Cal's shorter guards.
2025-26_Combined_Stats.pdf
North Carolina has three losses this year to ranked teams: at #2 Texas, at #3 UCLA and an overtime loss at home to #22 Louisville. Texas turned the tide by forcing 20+ turnovers, UCLA dominated the rebounding and inside scoring & Louisville won a close rebounding battle to escape with a squeaker.
North Carolina (19-4,7-3 ACC) -vs- California (18-4,6-3 ACC)
Last season, UNC dominated the boards 38-28 and held Cal's offense to 52 points. Only Ioanna Krimili (20) and Michelle Onyiah (14) were able to score regularly, combining for 65% of the team's offense. Krimili nailed 4 treys and Onyiah converted 6-7 field goals inside. Lulu Twidale was stopped cold, only able to make one trey in nine shot attempts for 3 points. She also committed 5 TOs. Kayla Williams was also held to one basket for 2 points. Marta Suarez went 4 of 14 for 8 points. It was a defensive game. Neither team scored twenty points in a single quarter (see box score).
This year both teams have suffered considerable personnel turnover. UNC plays seven guards/wings & three frontcourt players. Of the newbies, two are freshmen guards and two are soph transfers (one guard and a power forward). The Tarheel's offense is explosive now racing up and down the court. They score 20+ points in most quarters, and they average approximately 80 points. UNC has outscored their opponents by 24 ppg! As the tv announcers kept saying, this group of players are much better shooters than last year's crew.
2025-26 Women's Basketball Roster - University of North Carolina Athletics
I will review their player rotation. Their two centers are 6-4 & 6-5. Cierra Toomey has taken a major step forward as the 6-4 soph starter. She leads the team in rebounds w/ 7.1 and is 2nd in scoring w/ 11.3. Toomey is also tops in shot blocks with 23 in 15 games. The other front court starter is a 6-2 senior transfer from Louisville, Nyla Harris. She is 2nd in rebounding w/ 6.0 and fifth in offense w/ 9.9 points. In the game I watched, she got out to lead a couple fast breaks for baskets.
Their backcourt is loaded with solid ball-handlers. A nice addition has been 5-10 soph starting PG, Elina Aarnisalo, from Finland. She is a transfer from UCLA. She appears to be a solid all-around player. She is tied for 3rd in points w/ 10.9 and is second in both assists (41) & steals (21). Her teammate that is tied with her for 10.9 ppg comes off of the bench. She is a 6-1 frosh guard who is a deadeye three-point shooter. Her name is Nyla Brooks. She launches bombs from deep and hits 44% (36-81). The #6 offensive threat is soph SG, Lanie Grant, with 8.9 points per contest. She hit 10 points in Berkeley as a freshman. Lanie is second in treys w/ 23!
The other two starting guards are 5-10 senior PG Indya Nivar and 5-7 junior wing Reniya Kelly. Nivar transferred from Stanford two years ago and leads her team in scoring (11.8 points), assists (53) & steals (48)! Kelly exploded on offense at Cal w/ 16 points to lead UNC. She hit 7-15 from the field. She exploited a soft spot in the Bear's defense with pull-up jumpers from 10-12 feet around the foul line. Kelly is virtually automatic with that jump shot. There are two more talented young guards that have tallied double figures in recent games. Both stand 6-1. Frosh SG Taliyah Henderson and soph wing Laila Hull. They are dangerous.
North Carolina has much more size, depth and talent than does Cal. The Tarheels are superior in every statistical category when compared to the Bears. They hit 9.1 threes per game. They force 19.4 TOs, etc. My prediction assumes that the quality of both defenses will hold each team ten points below their season averages. I hope that I have overestimated UNC. Happy New Year!
UNC played a seven-player rotation to solve Cal at Haas. The Bears are 24-1 at home with the only loss coming at the hands of the Tarheels. Four of those seven that played between 16-36 minutes have graduated. They were primarily a defensive team that was offensively challenged. This year's contingent of ten players is much deeper, faster and athletic. UNC 2025-26 is an offensive team first and not as good on defense. UNC has a trio of 6-1 guards which is going to make life difficult for Cal's shorter guards.
2025-26_Combined_Stats.pdf
North Carolina has three losses this year to ranked teams: at #2 Texas, at #3 UCLA and an overtime loss at home to #22 Louisville. Texas turned the tide by forcing 20+ turnovers, UCLA dominated the rebounding and inside scoring & Louisville won a close rebounding battle to escape with a squeaker.
North Carolina (19-4,7-3 ACC) -vs- California (18-4,6-3 ACC)
Last season, UNC dominated the boards 38-28 and held Cal's offense to 52 points. Only Ioanna Krimili (20) and Michelle Onyiah (14) were able to score regularly, combining for 65% of the team's offense. Krimili nailed 4 treys and Onyiah converted 6-7 field goals inside. Lulu Twidale was stopped cold, only able to make one trey in nine shot attempts for 3 points. She also committed 5 TOs. Kayla Williams was also held to one basket for 2 points. Marta Suarez went 4 of 14 for 8 points. It was a defensive game. Neither team scored twenty points in a single quarter (see box score).
This year both teams have suffered considerable personnel turnover. UNC plays seven guards/wings & three frontcourt players. Of the newbies, two are freshmen guards and two are soph transfers (one guard and a power forward). The Tarheel's offense is explosive now racing up and down the court. They score 20+ points in most quarters, and they average approximately 80 points. UNC has outscored their opponents by 24 ppg! As the tv announcers kept saying, this group of players are much better shooters than last year's crew.
2025-26 Women's Basketball Roster - University of North Carolina Athletics
I will review their player rotation. Their two centers are 6-4 & 6-5. Cierra Toomey has taken a major step forward as the 6-4 soph starter. She leads the team in rebounds w/ 7.1 and is 2nd in scoring w/ 11.3. Toomey is also tops in shot blocks with 23 in 15 games. The other front court starter is a 6-2 senior transfer from Louisville, Nyla Harris. She is 2nd in rebounding w/ 6.0 and fifth in offense w/ 9.9 points. In the game I watched, she got out to lead a couple fast breaks for baskets.
Their backcourt is loaded with solid ball-handlers. A nice addition has been 5-10 soph starting PG, Elina Aarnisalo, from Finland. She is a transfer from UCLA. She appears to be a solid all-around player. She is tied for 3rd in points w/ 10.9 and is second in both assists (41) & steals (21). Her teammate that is tied with her for 10.9 ppg comes off of the bench. She is a 6-1 frosh guard who is a deadeye three-point shooter. Her name is Nyla Brooks. She launches bombs from deep and hits 44% (36-81). The #6 offensive threat is soph SG, Lanie Grant, with 8.9 points per contest. She hit 10 points in Berkeley as a freshman. Lanie is second in treys w/ 23!
The other two starting guards are 5-10 senior PG Indya Nivar and 5-7 junior wing Reniya Kelly. Nivar transferred from Stanford two years ago and leads her team in scoring (11.8 points), assists (53) & steals (48)! Kelly exploded on offense at Cal w/ 16 points to lead UNC. She hit 7-15 from the field. She exploited a soft spot in the Bear's defense with pull-up jumpers from 10-12 feet around the foul line. Kelly is virtually automatic with that jump shot. There are two more talented young guards that have tallied double figures in recent games. Both stand 6-1. Frosh SG Taliyah Henderson and soph wing Laila Hull. They are dangerous.
North Carolina has much more size, depth and talent than does Cal. The Tarheels are superior in every statistical category when compared to the Bears. They hit 9.1 threes per game. They force 19.4 TOs, etc. My prediction assumes that the quality of both defenses will hold each team ten points below their season averages. I hope that I have overestimated UNC. Happy New Year!
