Baseball regionals chances?

10,351 Views | 101 Replies | Last: 3 mo ago by oskidunker
eastcoastcal
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With the L to SJSU, is that it? Pretty much barring a pac-12 conference tournament championship, are we out? Saw baseball america's NCAA tournament predictions and we're not projected in the field. Was hoping if we won out we'd have a shot
Ccajon2
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Nope. They're out. Too many bad losses. Boston College, getting swept by ALL the AZ schools. Yeah they swept Oregon st. Then lost two to furds. Lost to SJS too. Look at there pitching stats: they don't have a single player with more then 5 wins. No decent starting pitching. Worst coach in the Power 5 too. Also virtually no fan base. But really just go look at the pitching stats, then tell me if they are deserving of a regional bid.
Ccajon2
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Another thing I don't like about this team, or the coach. Take a look at the schedule between Feb 21 and March 10. There are 11 games. Wow Cal wins 9 of them, including sweeps of UConn, and UCLA. On March 1 they go to Las Vegas, and lose to Massey rated #74 Ohio st. 9-4 then go to Summerlin on 3/3 and get clobbered by future ACC comrade #69 Pittsburgh 19-7. Hmmm ..what happened here both teams are ranked well below Cal, and aren't historically good programs. Probably that the boys just had a good old time in Lost Wages. I think the selection committee looks at results like that, and asks, why do they deserve to play in a regional. Another thing is the team hasn't won a conference title in 60 years. (I'm telling that to East Coast Cal, he probably doesn't know that.)
coachdeke
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The bracketologists don't agree. I saw Cal making the tourney in one forecast and among the first four out in another last week. I would think if they won there last four and won a couple in the Pac 12 tournament, they're in. If they win 3 of the last four and go 2-2 in the Pac 12 tournament, Cal would eek in. They just doing enough not to make it currently.
Ccajon2
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coachdeke said:

The bracketologists don't agree. I saw Cal making the tourney in one forecast and among the first four out in another last week. I would think if they won there last four and won a couple in the Pac 12 tournament, they're in. If they win 3 of the last four and go 2-2 in the Pac 12 tournament, Cal would eek in. They just doing enough not to make it currently.


Probably right CD. That Oregon St. Sweep goes a long way towards getting them in. 4-5 more wins should do it. Still not a fan of Neu though. He's not much of a recruiter, with classes rated in the 60s, one over 100, and one unrated. If Ian May were available, would have 40+ wins by now.
Shocky1
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https://bearinsider.com/forums/2/topics/110786/replies/2333995
Baller4
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Ccajon2 said:

coachdeke said:

The bracketologists don't agree. I saw Cal making the tourney in one forecast and among the first four out in another last week. I would think if they won there last four and won a couple in the Pac 12 tournament, they're in. If they win 3 of the last four and go 2-2 in the Pac 12 tournament, Cal would eek in. They just doing enough not to make it currently.


Probably right CD. That Oregon St. Sweep goes a long way towards getting them in. 4-5 more wins should do it. Still not a fan of Neu though. He's not much of a recruiter, with classes rated in the 60s, one over 100, and one unrated. If Ian May were available, would have 40+ wins by now.
He is not right, While watching the replay, after attending the game last night. Wes Clemons and Roxy were talking about, how can a team with 30 wins, be on the bubble. This conference will get 5 teams in to a regional.U of A or OSU will win the Pac tourney, unless they coast it knowing they are in and don't need the tourney. That means if Neu does not win the Pac tourney, he will be on vacation in June like he has been for 6 out of the 7 years he has been running this program. One UOP mid-week game was enough. Neu does not play for a regional, he has been playing to get into the tournament. That is the problem. You all talked about pitching stats. Pitching was better when Flemmer was coach. He ran him off for some reason. This is Neu's expertise, but he brought someone else in to take the blame for his lack of ability!!! This new PC will be gone after this year. Sad, but probably the program will be gone, since Neu took Cal baseball out of the conversation for the past 7 years!
SFCALBear72
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The third game against San Jose State was underwhelming. Going for the sweep and the Bears acted like they didn't care. Two out of three was "good enough" for them. No, it's not. Every game counts!
coachdeke
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"Bad losses" are not nearly as bad as in other sports. Good teams lose to poor teams regularly, unlike football and basketball.
MoragaBear
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Staff
If Cal sweeps UW at home Thurs-Sat, they're almost definitely in. 2 of 3 with a couple tourney wins may do it, too.

Flemer wasn't the answer. When several players came to him for help, the answers were pitch better and figure it out per several parents.

Incidentally, this is the best hitting team I remember since following Cal baseball.
calbearinamaze
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Looking only at raw*** batting average, CAL is now at .290. We have to go back to 2011 (.292) to top that.
2010 at .318 really stands out.


https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/stats/college~2010~20008/


NOTE: CAL's current number of homeruns (72) is the most going back to 2000.

***Unadjusted for opponents' pitching

GO BEARS!!!
MoragaBear
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calbearinamaze said:


Looking only at raw*** batting average, CAL is now at .290. We have to go back to 2011 (.292) to top that.
2010 at .318 really stands out.


https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/stats/college~2010~20008/


NOTE: CAL's current number of homeruns (72) is the most going back to 2000.

***Unadjusted for opponents' pitching

GO BEARS!!!
I was at the CWS in 2011 when they pulled off the surprise wins at the regional and super regional. Hopefully they've got some more surprises in store this season. Lots of talent in the freshman class, especially if the highly-touted pitchers can come into their own.
eastcoastcal
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MoragaBear said:

If Cal sweeps UW at home Thurs-Sat, they're almost definitely in. 2 of 3 with a couple tourney wins may do it, too.

Flemer wasn't the answer. When several players came to him for help, the answers were pitch better and figure it out per several parents.

Incidentally, this is the best hitting team I remember since following Cal baseball.
Great to hear!! Lets get it done boys!
JimSox
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10-3 win over Washington tonight.
89Bear
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JimSox said:

10-3 win over Washington tonight.
Nice!! Fingers remained crossed. I love watching the college baseball playoffs. Having the Bears in it makes it so much better obviously.
philbert
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calbearinamaze
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All 5 Udub runs in the fourth to put them ahead 5 - 0.


Baseball vs Washington on 5/17/2024 - Box Score - California Golden Bears Athletics (calbears.com)


GO BEARS!!!
JimSox
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calbearinamaze said:



All 5 Udub runs in the fourth to put them ahead 5 - 0.


Baseball vs Washington on 5/17/2024 - Box Score - California Golden Bears Athletics (calbears.com)


GO BEARS!!!


Yeah. Six straight hits off Ian May. Seems like he's still not right after his surgery.
But after that Cal pitchers gave up essentially nothing in seven plus innings.
calbearinamaze
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JimSox said:



I have to agree on May.......

Stasiowski has been really, really good.

5 wins and 4 saves, ERA of 2.10.



GO BEARS!!!
MoragaBear
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Staff
If Cal beats UW today and Utah beats SC, Cal win finish tied for 4th with ASU and Utah with better records than both, though in that scenario, they'd still be seeded 6th in the P12 tourney.


OBear073akaSMFan
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No score yet. Cal had their cchance bottom of 3rd , 1st and 3rd no out. Couldn't get the runner in.
philbert
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Let's go!


Alkiadt
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OBear073akaSMFan said:

No score yet. Cal had their cchance bottom of 3rd , 1st and 3rd no out. Couldn't get the runner in.
.

Bears sweep with another walk off extra inning game. I hope they will make the NCAA's as they've had a strong showing the last month or so.
OBear073akaSMFan
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Terrific win. Had to unfortunately leave after bottom of 7th with a 2-1 lead. Wow lots happened after I left but happy they swept. Lomavita had lots of chances to blow the game wide open but wasn't his day. Think ump was giving them a wide strike zone. Bears need to win at least 1 or 2 games in the playoff to increase their chances.
coachdeke
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They should be in, but 1 or 2 in the tournament would certainly help. Selection is Monday morning May 27.
JimSox
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So if I read this right, Cal will be in a pool with Oregon State and Stanford. Do you think we need to win at least one of those games to get into a regional?
BearSD
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My guess would be that the Bears have to win the Pac-12 tournament and get the conference's (last in any sport) automatic bid to get into the NCAA tournament.

Cal's RPI before today's games was 65. With at least 16 low-rated conferences getting automatic bids, a team probably has to be in the RPI top 50 at a minimum to have a good chance of being selected as an at-large team. Baseball America's latest projection, made before this weekend's games, projects the Bears as the 8th team out. I'm not sure that a sweep of a weak Washington team moves the Bears up significantly.
MoragaBear
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BearSD said:

My guess would be that the Bears have to win the Pac-12 tournament and get the conference's (last in any sport) automatic bid to get into the NCAA tournament.

Cal's RPI before today's games was 65. With at least 16 low-rated conferences getting automatic bids, a team probably has to be in the RPI top 50 at a minimum to have a good chance of being selected as an at-large team. Baseball America's latest projection, made before this weekend's games, projects the Bears as the 8th team out. I'm not sure that a sweep of a weak Washington team moves the Bears up significantly.

Highly doubt winning the tourney is a prerequisite. Not with the way they ended their season or the sweep over OSU. A win or two should secure it.
Alkiadt
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MoragaBear said:

BearSD said:

My guess would be that the Bears have to win the Pac-12 tournament and get the conference's (last in any sport) automatic bid to get into the NCAA tournament.


Cal's RPI before today's games was 65. With at least 16 low-rated conferences getting automatic bids, a team probably has to be in the RPI top 50 at a minimum to have a good chance of being selected as an at-large team. Baseball America's latest projection, made before this weekend's games, projects the Bears as the 8th team out. I'm not sure that a sweep of a weak Washington team moves the Bears up significantly.

Highly doubt winning the tourney is a prerequisite. Not with the way they ended their season or the sweep over OSU. A win or two should secure it.


Agree. They've gone 18-4 in their last 22 games that included that OSU sweep. I can't believe the committee can overlook that.
BearSD
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MoragaBear said:

BearSD said:

My guess would be that the Bears have to win the Pac-12 tournament and get the conference's (last in any sport) automatic bid to get into the NCAA tournament.

Cal's RPI before today's games was 65. With at least 16 low-rated conferences getting automatic bids, a team probably has to be in the RPI top 50 at a minimum to have a good chance of being selected as an at-large team. Baseball America's latest projection, made before this weekend's games, projects the Bears as the 8th team out. I'm not sure that a sweep of a weak Washington team moves the Bears up significantly.

Highly doubt winning the tourney is a prerequisite. Not with the way they ended their season or the sweep over OSU. A win or two should secure it.
Hope you're right. Though I don't have any faith in the tournament committee to do their homework and look beyond power rankings for teams that are not in the SEC.
JimSox
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JimSox said:

So if I read this right, Cal will be in a pool with Oregon State and Stanford. Do you think we need to win at least one of those games to get into a regional?


Nope. I read it wrong. Washington and Arizona. First game against Washington, the team we just swept.
udaman1
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Fwiw i cant find any current ncaa regional projections with Cal being listed any higher than the last team in "NEXT FOUR OUT".
But hey! Just as long as the SEC gets 9 teams in plus some school called "high point' , am I right, gang?!
BearSD
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9 SEC teams? Ha. They want more, more, more.

Baseball America wants to put 11 SEC teams (out of 14) into the NCAA baseball tournament. They have Cal as the 5th team out, as of May 21.
D1Baseball has our Bears as the 3rd team out. These guys also put 11 SEC teams in the NCAA tournament.
Baller4
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MoragaBear said:

BearSD said:

My guess would be that the Bears have to win the Pac-12 tournament and get the conference's (last in any sport) automatic bid to get into the NCAA tournament.

Cal's RPI before today's games was 65. With at least 16 low-rated conferences getting automatic bids, a team probably has to be in the RPI top 50 at a minimum to have a good chance of being selected as an at-large team. Baseball America's latest projection, made before this weekend's games, projects the Bears as the 8th team out. I'm not sure that a sweep of a weak Washington team moves the Bears up significantly.

Highly doubt winning the tourney is a prerequisite. Not with the way they ended their season or the sweep over OSU. A win or two should secure it.
Sweep means nothing when you lose the next series to Stanford. The UOP wins don't do anything when it comes to RPI. They will need to win the tournament. The Pac has always been screwed when it comes to selection. The second year OSU won the NC. As I recall, Cal had a better record and took the series agains OSU and Stanford, who took their series agains OSU. Cal was passed for a selection to a regional. They will take the top 3 teams as it stands now. ASU has the same record and has the sweep of Cal. ASU has the series win agains U of A, and Cal was swept. RPI is what kills everything. It will be interesting if this program even has a chance when it comes to the ACC. Same with Stanford. RPI should be thrown out. All the colleges in this area will not help Cal or Stanford in RPI for the ACC.
Alkiadt
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Baller4 said:

MoragaBear said:

BearSD said:

My guess would be that the Bears have to win the Pac-12 tournament and get the conference's (last in any sport) automatic bid to get into the NCAA tournament.

Cal's RPI before today's games was 65. With at least 16 low-rated conferences getting automatic bids, a team probably has to be in the RPI top 50 at a minimum to have a good chance of being selected as an at-large team. Baseball America's latest projection, made before this weekend's games, projects the Bears as the 8th team out. I'm not sure that a sweep of a weak Washington team moves the Bears up significantly.

Highly doubt winning the tourney is a prerequisite. Not with the way they ended their season or the sweep over OSU. A win or two should secure it.
Sweep means nothing when you lose the next series to Stanford. The UOP wins don't do anything when it comes to RPI. They will need to win the tournament. The Pac has always been screwed when it comes to selection. The second year OSU won the NC. As I recall, Cal had a better record and took the series agains OSU and Stanford, who took their series agains OSU. Cal was passed for a selection to a regional. They will take the top 3 teams as it stands now. ASU has the same record and has the sweep of Cal. ASU has the series win agains U of A, and Cal was swept. RPI is what kills everything. It will be interesting if this program even has a chance when it comes to the ACC. Same with Stanford. RPI should be thrown out. All the colleges in this area will not help Cal or Stanford in RPI for the ACC.


ASU just lost to Stanford….
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