2019-2020 NCAA WOMEN'S SWIMMING & DIVING POWER RANKINGS: DECEMBER EDITION#5: NC STATE WOLFPACK (-1)
No team has appeared to have as much long course/short course split focus this fall as NC State, which sent a lot of its top stars to U.S. Open last week. Even with that split focus, NC State is fifth in the Swimulator. The key is going to be getting
Ky-Lee Perry back on track. The standout sprinter didn't compete much this fall and has been off her mid-season bests from a year ago. -JA
#4: TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (+2)
Erika Brown is on fire, there's no doubt about it. Can UT climb into the top three? Certainly; the key may lie in
Kaitlin Harty returning to full form in the backstroke. -KO
Tennessee has consistently impressed this fall, and they rank #3 in the Swimulator.
Erika Brown was a high school mid-distance freestyler; could she return to her roots with the 200 free over the 100 fly this spring? The former event is much more wide open than the latter, and Brown currently leads the nation. -JA
#3: VIRGINIA CAVALIERS (-)
Those medley relays are something special. UVA has a swimmer ranked in the top 8 in current Swimulator projections in all but five events, and they have a projected scorer in all but one. Swimmer to watch:
Abby Richter, who scored 5 NCAA points last year but is projected at 13 currently after lifetime-bests in the 200 fly (1:55.32) and 400 IM (4:10.88) at mid-season). -JA
Kate Douglass won't stop impressing.
Paige Madden is an absolute force.
Morgan Hill is a relay hero. But the real kicker is the UVA medley relays, which are, excuse my French, simply disgusting right now. The depth could come through to make it interesting with the Bay Area teams, but we haven't quite seen it yet. -KO
#2: STANFORD CARDINAL (-1)
I've been a pretty hardline Stanford truther this year, but I'm a lot less confident than I've been, based on how Cal swam at mid-season. A key reason I'm keeping Stanford at #1? Current Swimulator projections have two of five Stanford relays outside of scoring range, and I just don't see that happening at NCAAs. -JA
I'm tentative to put Stanford down a notch, but while they will almost certainly exude much more power come March, one luxury will not be afforded to this team: a truly elite sprint freestyler. When they lost Simone Manuel, Taylor Ruck stepped up to the plate; can anyone replace Ruck, though? It doesn't look like it yet. And the sprint strokers will need to pick it up to compete with the advancements we're seeing in events like the 100 fly and 100 back. -KO
#1: CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS (+1)The Cal women are the only team over 300 on the current Swimulator projections at 354.5, and while things will inevitably shift over the back-half of the season, this isn't one team's meet to lose anymore. In an effort not to try to leave too much to 'how things will end up shaking out,' Cal looks the best right now. To look back to historical context, though, they definitely have more in the tank. -KO
Cal is making a strong push for top team status. They've got the runaway best sprinter in the field, and that's going to count for a lot on relays come March. -JA