The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

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movielover
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6:46p, 8/8/25
Newsweek: Negotiations or Deals Trump Administration Has Worked On

Armenia and Azerbaijan (August)
Thailand and Cambodia (July)
Israel and Iran (June)
Rwanda and Democratic Republic of the Congo (June)
India and Pakistan (May)
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bear2034
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7:38p, 8/8/25
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In reply to movielover • 8:27p, 8/8/25
movielover said:
Putin visiting the USA is a big change.

The Biden administration supported an International Criminal Court arrest warrant.

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movielover
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In reply to bear2034 • 9:10a, 8/9/25
bear2034 said:


Yup. The Drone President got a Nobel Peace Prize before his seat WH was even warm. Ridiculous.
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Cal88
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11:07a, 8/9/25
There is a real chance of this war being settled with an "Istanbul Plus" type of agreement with the following Russian demands being met:
-Neutrality for Ukraine, no NATO membership or involvement on Ukrainian soil
-the 4 oblasts currently occupied by Russia recognized as Russian territories by the US.*
-Russian restored as one of the official languages in Ukraine, and minority rights put in place
-Return of $300 billion Russian assets seized

The Russians want all of the oblast territories, including parts of Kherson and Zaporizhie oblasts that they don't hold yet. That could be subject to negotiation.

The other negotiation point might be to allocate part of the $300 billion to Ukrainian reconstruction.

Trump is also negotiating Iran, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria with Putin, wanting concessions for Israel. He is also negotiating on behalf of Israel for Netanyahu.
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movielover
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In reply to Cal88 • 11:51a, 8/9/25
And what if NATO and Zelensky don't buy in?

We can cut off funding. I saw a report that we're rerouting military supplies to our stockpile.

Might POTUS use a new Russia-USA trade agreement and Russia supplying us with 'rare earth materials' as a big beautiful bonus? Maybe Russia mines the new territories, and gives Ukraine a small piece.
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Anarchistbear
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12:08p, 8/9/25
No way does the EU agree unless there is a combined military deterrent in Ukraine
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movielover
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12:37p, 8/9/25
"The answer to the Ukrainian territorial question already is in the Constitution of Ukraine. No one will deviate from thisand no one will be able to. Ukrainians will not gift their land to the occupier," Zelenskyy.
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sonofabear51
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10:48p, 8/9/25
So, whose country is it then? Zelenskiy not allowed? What a crock!!

F turnip, and F putin. They can go rot together.
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movielover
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10:04a, 8/10/25
Two new voices discuss Russia / Ukraine/ USA. The host is a Norwegian academic / politician, the guest an American w military experience.

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movielover
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10:48a, 8/10/25
Finally?

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movielover
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1:15p, 8/10/25
Don't forget the eastern provinces in Ukraine voted to leave after years of oppression by the Ukraine regime.

Some argue this has been a war of liberation, not conquest.
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bearister
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In reply to movielover • 2:35p, 8/10/25
movielover said:


Some argue this has been a war of liberation, not conquest.


I would be interested in seeing the list of names that have argued that. We will reserve slot # 1 on that list for Col. Macgregor. 2nd position secured by Tulsi Gabbard.
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sycasey
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In reply to movielover • 6:32p, 8/10/25
movielover said:
Some argue this has been a war of liberation, not conquest.

LOL, okay.

When did this vote happen and was it before or after Russia started occupying those provinces?
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movielover
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6:54p, 8/10/25
Ukraine a client state?



Time to end NATO?

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movielover
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11:26a, 8/12/25
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movielover
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11:32a, 8/12/25


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Cal88
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In reply to movielover • 11:58a, 8/12/25
movielover said:


Quote:
'Russians are a warring nation. They have fought many wars. My friend said that Russia is strong because they just keep fighting. They defeated Hitler. We did too. And they defeated Napoleon. You know, they've been doing this for a very long time.

I asked a very smart person, whom some like and some don't. Viktor Orban. I asked, "So can Ukraine defeat Russia?" He looked at me as if I had asked a stupid question. He said, "Russia is a huge country. And they fought to live. They fight that's what they do." He also said, "China beats you with trade, and Russia with war. That was a very interesting statement."


Looks like Orban set Trump straight on the real nature and outcome of the Ukraine war, so he's likely to go into the negotiations with Putin with much more realistic and pragmatic starting points. Trump was also likely briefed on current happenings along the border, the situation is becoming increasingly untenable for the Ukrainian army.

Trump will have to pull the plug on Ukraine for Kiev to come to a realistic starting point though:
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movielover
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In reply to Cal88 • 1:51p, 8/12/25
A third war where?

NATO / USA / CIA lost the war; Ukraine lost 1.8 million men, plus desserters and millions of evacuees. Historians allege this goes back to the fall of the USSR, and Globalists and the USA goal of creating a hegemony while also breaking Russia into pieces for their $50 Trillion in natural wealth.

In defense of Zelensky, he probably has AZOV guards on him and his family 24 / 7, and a pack of hyenas skimming 50% off of everything which enters the country. Some of that stops w a peace deal.
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Cal88
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In reply to movielover • 8:47p, 8/12/25
movielover said:
A third war where?

NATO / USA / CIA lost the war; Ukraine lost 1.8 million men, plus desserters and millions of evacuees. Historians allege this goes back to the fall of the USSR, and Globalists and the USA goal of creating a hegemony while also breaking Russia into pieces for their $50 Trillion in natural wealth.

In defense of Zelensky, he probably has AZOV guards on him and his family 24 / 7, and a pack of hyenas skimming 50% off of everything which enters the country. Some of that stops w a peace deal.


Russia's natural ressource wealth is much more than $50 Trillion, more like $75 Trillion. In addition to this, they also have a large sector of heavy industry and primary/transformation industry (steel, aluminum, fertilizer, lumber, concrete etc). If left alone to develop, Russia will become the wealthiest country in Europe by a wide margin, it is a natural superpower.



Zelensky's close guard is reportedly run by British SAS, so he does have to maintain a fairly belligerent line, as the Brits are the biggest proponents of this conflict in Europe.

By third war, Zelensky means a war down the line to follow the ongoing one, which is the second war, the first one being the ATO ("Anti-Terrorist Operation") which the post-Maidan regime conducted against the Donbas rebels. That war was officially ended with the Minsk Agreements, though the Ukrainians broke the ceasefire on many occasions, notably with sporadic bombing of the city of Donetsk, capital of the Donbas.

Of course the second war was the SMO ("Special Military Operation") started by Russia in late Feb. 22 as a preemptive response to Kiev having massed 60,000 troops to wipe out the Donbas rebels.

The idea of the third war is for Ukraine to rebuild its forces in 5 to 10 years after a long ceasefire in a vain attempt to reconquer Crimea and the 4 eastern oblasts.

The one good thing about Zelensky talking about the third war here is that it establishes from the horses mouth that the current war is not the first one, and that the conflict really started in 2014.
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Cal88
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9:47p, 8/12/25
Some good news, the message is now getting to the neocons, they now realize they have to end the war now lest Russia completely overrun Ukraine.


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movielover
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In reply to Cal88 • 10:13p, 8/12/25
I probably read more broadly than most Americans - most aren't even tuned into the war - yet I am no expert. [Insert DiabloWags insult.]

This said, I've noticed the past month or two that light-in-the-loafers LG is viewed very poorly. Many view him as a hopeless warmonger. [Insert another DiabloWags insult.] More people seem specifically on to LG. I wonder if that has played a role. Or maybe he just doesn't want to be on the losing side.

Colonel MacGregor has turned on Trump, as has low-lQ-dog-barking Scott Ritter. Hey, Trump ain't perfect.

But he's the only major figure I can see who wants to stop the killing. NATO / CIA want blood, and to avoid a humiliating defeat. I can't figure out the toothless decaying EU: few weapons or personnel, money doesn't match their mouth, but trying to run the show. Maybe still butthurt a Yank Conservative is running the show. These are the intelligent Green ignoramuses who shut down Green nuclear power!

Trump has to work around our corrupt CIA who want to save face and the UniParty MIC, and may add a dramatic new angle if the USA and Russia start doing business together. They despise Trump. My DC friend claims to be an Independent but can't stand him - a former politician and now DC prof, who is shockingly uninformed. Imagine President Trump securing a 6th peace deal in 9 months. Sploddy heads.
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movielover
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10:58p, 8/12/25
Reportedly four significant population centers are crumbling under pressure: Kupiansk, Siversk, Konstantinivka, and Prokovsk - pre-war population 85,000. Ukrainian defense lines around and within the city have broken down. Russian forces are already in the city. Supply and exit routes to the north and west are barely passable.

A secondary defensive line is reportedly 20 mikes to the rear, but Ukrainian forces unlikely to fall back.
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movielover
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7:57a, 8/13/25
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Cal88
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In reply to movielover • 9:30a, 8/13/25
movielover said:


That guy Amuse is way off his rocker, Germany producing more weapons now than in 1943?? They produced 11,000 tanks and 20,000 airplanes in 1943! This is a really poor attempt at journalism.
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movielover
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In reply to Cal88 • 10:06a, 8/13/25
Can we pay Zelensky in confiscated cartel blow?

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Cal88
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In reply to movielover • 10:22a, 8/13/25
Trump is in a conundrum, he can threaten to pull out US military support to Ukraine but that would accelerate the current Russian advances and Ukraine's loss would then be entirely blamed on him, that is why Zelensky is putting out these non-starters. Likely outcome is nothing gets accomplished in Alaska, and the Russians keep attriting the Ukrainian army and advancing slowly.

Next step might be the US pushing for elections in Ukraine.
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movielover
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In reply to Cal88 • 11:12a, 8/13/25
Agreed. Some suggest if Russia advances past the current defensive lines, there's a lot of open ground til the next fortifications.

Even if President Trump secures a peace deal the next six months, it seems likely to restart after he departs.

Recently heard a prognosticator say in December of 2021 Biden, in a call w Putin, agreed to no offensive weapons in Ukraine.

Then the infamous rambling Jan. 19th press conference where gaffe-prone Biden let out a whopper: Russia, he suggested, would face but minor consequences if it restrained itself to a "minor incursion" into Ukraine.

Then in early Feb of 2022, Blinken replied, "WE didn't agree to that [no offensive weapons] ... we can talk about how many, but there is no ban."
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Cal88
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In reply to movielover • 12:05p, 8/13/25
Good reminder about a key event before the start of the Russian invasion, Russia wanted no NATO enlargement into Ukraine as a key condition.



The great majority of Ukrainians want a negotiated settlement with Russia, so the way out is to have elections there. Zelensky is a highly unpopular figure in Ukraine.

Quote:
Poll: 69% of Ukrainians Want Negotiated End to War as Soon as Possible
By Dave DeCamp, Antiwar.com, August 10, 2025

Just 24% of Ukrainians want to keep fighting, a near complete reversal of public opinion since 2022.
Gallup released a new poll on Thursday that found 69% of Ukrainians favor a negotiated end to the war with Russia as soon as possible, while just 24% want to keep fighting until "victory," a near complete reversal of public opinion from when Russia invaded more than three years ago.
When Gallup first asked the question to Ukrainians in 2022, it found 72% wanted to continue fighting and just 22% wanted a negotiated settlement. As the war progressed, the number of Ukrainians who favored a peace deal increased, and it became a majority for the first time when Gallup released a poll in November 2024, finding that 52% wanted negotiations to end the conflict.



https://worldbeyondwar.org/poll-69-of-ukrainians-want-negotiated-end-to-war-as-soon-as-possible/
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movielover
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In reply to Cal88 • 12:18p, 8/13/25
I think it was Mearsheimer that recently said Trump needs to acknowledge and communicate our role, how we got here, before providing possible solutions. Most Americans probably don't recall the implosion of the USSR, our promises, arms treaties we pulled out of, Minsk I, Minsk II, 2014, the Civil War, etc. Trump wants to stop the killing, but either he or his team don't want to bring the public along. Or the MIC doesn't want the sunlight.
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DiabloWags
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5:13p, 8/13/25
Growth in the Russian economy is stalling. Oil revenues have slumped. The budget deficit has widened to the largest in more than three decades. Inflation and interest rates remain painfully high. Behind the walls of the country's banks, some insiders are sounding alarms about a looming debt crisis.

Vlad's war machine economy is in trouble.
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Cal88
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In reply to DiabloWags • 7:41p, 8/13/25
DiabloWags said:
Growth in the Russian economy is stalling. Oil revenues have slumped. The budget deficit has widened to the largest in more than three decades. Inflation and interest rates remain painfully high. Behind the walls of the country's banks, some insiders are sounding alarms about a looming debt crisis.

Vlad's war machine economy is in trouble.




Russia's debt to GDP ratio is under 20%, the lowest of any larger industrialized country, they can afford to rack up some debt, especially since they are loaded with resources and have reserves. They can balance their deficit with just a small fraction of these reserves.

Quote:
Russia raised the 2025 budget deficit estimate to 1.7% of gross domestic product in April from 0.5% after reducing the energy revenue forecast by 24%, expecting a prolonged period of low oil prices.

State spending on national defence was hiked by a quarter in 2025 to 6.3% of GDP, the highest since the Cold War, as the country continued its war in Ukraine, now in its fourth year.

The government is planning to tap its fiscal reserves for 447 billion roubles, or about one-tenth of its liquid assets, to balance the budget in 2025. The Finance Ministry is planning another revision of the budget in autumn.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russia-budget-deficit-reaches-2025-target-level-17-gdp-first-half-year-2025-07-07/

As well, the Ruble sits just below 80/USD right now, which is the same as pre-war levels. The Russians can balance their budgets by simply devaluating the Ruble slightly, which would raise their Ruble proceeds from oil and gas sales on the USD-denominated international oil market.

The war of attrition in Ukraine is well past the midway point, it is not going to last several more years. The economic factor is way overstated. The human factor is far more important, Russia having incurred around 125k KIAs in the 3+ years of this war.
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oski003
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In reply to Cal88 • 7:45p, 8/13/25
Cal88 said:
DiabloWags said:
Growth in the Russian economy is stalling. Oil revenues have slumped. The budget deficit has widened to the largest in more than three decades. Inflation and interest rates remain painfully high. Behind the walls of the country's banks, some insiders are sounding alarms about a looming debt crisis.

Vlad's war machine economy is in trouble.




Russia's debt to GDP ratio is under 20%, the lowest of any larger industrialized country, they can afford to rack up some debt, especially since they are loaded with resources and have reserves. They can balance their deficit with just a small fraction of these reserves.

Quote:
Russia raised the 2025 budget deficit estimate to 1.7% of gross domestic product in April from 0.5% after reducing the energy revenue forecast by 24%, expecting a prolonged period of low oil prices.

State spending on national defence was hiked by a quarter in 2025 to 6.3% of GDP, the highest since the Cold War, as the country continued its war in Ukraine, now in its fourth year.

The government is planning to tap its fiscal reserves for 447 billion roubles, or about one-tenth of its liquid assets, to balance the budget in 2025. The Finance Ministry is planning another revision of the budget in autumn.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russia-budget-deficit-reaches-2025-target-level-17-gdp-first-half-year-2025-07-07/

As well, the Ruble sits just below 80/USD right now, which is the same as pre-war levels. The Russians can balance their budgets by simply devaluating the Ruble slightly, which would raise their Ruble proceeds from oil and gas sales on the USD-denominated international oil market.

The war of attrition in Ukraine is well past the midway point, it is not going to last several more years. The economic factor is way overstated. The human factor is far more important, Russia having incurred around 125k KIAs in the 3+ years of this war.


This is unfortunately true. Nice job coming in with facts Cal88.
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movielover
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6:30a, 8/14/25
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bear2034
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In reply to Cal88 • 2:58p, 8/14/25
Cal88 said:
Russia's debt to GDP ratio is under 20%, the lowest of any larger industrialized country, they can afford to rack up some debt, especially since they are loaded with resources and have reserves. They can balance their deficit with just a small fraction of these reserves.

And kudos to Turkey, Australia, Estonia, and especially Kuwait!
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