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The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

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bearister
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Does anyone here have commentary on these allegations regarding Aleksey Navalny?


1. Political and Electoral Barring

Disqualification from Elections:
The Russian state systematically blocked Navalny from registering political parties or running for public office. Most notably, the Central Election Commission barred him from running against Vladimir Putin in the 2018 presidential election, citing past criminal convictions that international observers deemed politically fabricated.

Banning of Organizations:
In June 2021, a Moscow court designated Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) and his regional headquarters as "extremist organizations." This effectively outlawed his political network, forced his closest allies into exile, and made anyone who worked with or donated to the group subject to severe criminal prosecution.

2. State-Sponsored Poisonings and Physical Attacks

The 2020 Novichok Poisoning:
On August 20, 2020, Navalny was poisoned with the military-grade nerve agent Novichok while traveling in Siberia. An independent investigation by Bellingcat and The Insider definitively linked the assassination attempt to a specialized chemical weapons unit of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB).

Prior Chemical Attacks:
In 2017, an attacker threw zelyonka (a brilliant green antiseptic dye) mixed with a harmful chemical into Navalny's face outside his office, leaving him with permanent partial blindness in one eye. In 2019, while serving a brief jail sentence, he suffered an acute, mysterious severe allergic reaction that his personal doctors concluded was the result of exposure to an unknown toxic agent.

3. Fabricated Criminal Charges and Arbitrary Detention

Repeated Short-Term Arrests: Throughout the 2010s, authorities routinely detained Navalny before or during anti-corruption rallies, subjecting him to dozens of administrative jail terms (usually lasting 15 to 30 days) to disrupt his organizing capabilities.

The Kirovles and Yves Rocher Cases:
The state fabricated several financial embezzlement cases against Navalny and his brother, Oleg. The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) later ruled these trials unfair and politically motivated.

Immediate Arrest Upon Return (2021):
After surviving the Novichok attack and undergoing medical treatment in Germany, Navalny flew back to Moscow on January 17, 2021. He was immediately detained at the airport for allegedly violating the parole terms of his suspended sentence while he was in a coma abroad.

4. Severe Sentence Stacking and Maximum-Security Isolation

Once in state custody, the judiciary sequentially escalated his prison sentences to ensure he would remain jailed indefinitely:

2021:
Sentenced to 2.5 years for the parole violation.
2022:
Sentenced to 9 years for fraud and contempt of court.
2023:
Sentenced to 19 years in a maximum-security facility on charges of creating an "extremist community."

Punitive Solitary Confinement:
Prison authorities subjected Navalny to psychological and physical torture, placing him in a tiny solitary punishment cell (SHIZO) over 300 times during his final three years. He was systematically denied adequate medical care, proper nutrition, and contact with his legal team.

5. Final Exile to the Arctic and Death in Custody

Transfer to the "Polar Wolf" Colony: In December 2023, the state transferred Navalny to the IK-3 penal colony in Kharp, a remote facility located north of the Arctic Circle known for its brutal conditions. This effectively cut him off from public scrutiny and his legal defense.

Death in Custody (February 2024): On February 16, 2024, the Russian prison service announced that Alexei Navalny had died at the age of 47. International leaders, human rights organizations, and Navalny's widow, Yulia Navalnaya, hold Vladimir Putin directly responsible for his death, viewing it as the culmination of the state's decade-long campaign to eliminate him.




1. Political and Electoral Barring

Disqualification from Elections: The Russian state systematically blocked Navalny from registering political parties or running for public office. Most notably, the Central Election Commission barred him from running against Vladimir Putin in the 2018 presidential election, citing past criminal convictions that international observers deemed politically fabricated.
Banning of Organizations: In June 2021, a Moscow court designated Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) and his regional headquarters as "extremist organizations." This effectively outlawed his political network, forced his closest allies into exile, and made anyone who worked with or donated to the group subject to severe criminal prosecution.

2. State-Sponsored Poisonings and Physical Attacks

The 2020 Novichok Poisoning: On August 20, 2020, Navalny was poisoned with the military-grade nerve agent Novichok while traveling in Siberia. An independent investigation by Bellingcat and The Insider definitively linked the assassination attempt to a specialized chemical weapons unit of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB).
Prior Chemical Attacks: In 2017, an attacker threw zelyonka (a brilliant green antiseptic dye) mixed with a harmful chemical into Navalny's face outside his office, leaving him with permanent partial blindness in one eye. In 2019, while serving a brief jail sentence, he suffered an acute, mysterious severe allergic reaction that his personal doctors concluded was the result of exposure to an unknown toxic agent.

3. Fabricated Criminal Charges and Arbitrary Detention

Repeated Short-Term Arrests: Throughout the 2010s, authorities routinely detained Navalny before or during anti-corruption rallies, subjecting him to dozens of administrative jail terms (usually lasting 15 to 30 days) to disrupt his organizing capabilities.
The Kirovles and Yves Rocher Cases: The state fabricated several financial embezzlement cases against Navalny and his brother, Oleg. The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) later ruled these trials unfair and politically motivated.
Immediate Arrest Upon Return (2021): After surviving the Novichok attack and undergoing medical treatment in Germany, Navalny flew back to Moscow on January 17, 2021. He was immediately detained at the airport for allegedly violating the parole terms of his suspended sentence while he was in a coma abroad.

4. Severe Sentence Stacking and Maximum-Security Isolation

Once in state custody, the judiciary sequentially escalated his prison sentences to ensure he would remain jailed indefinitely:
2021: Sentenced to 2.5 years for the parole violation.
2022: Sentenced to 9 years for fraud and contempt of court.
2023: Sentenced to 19 years in a maximum-security facility on charges of creating an "extremist community."
Punitive Solitary Confinement: Prison authorities subjected Navalny to psychological and physical torture, placing him in a tiny solitary punishment cell (SHIZO) over 300 times during his final three years. He was systematically denied adequate medical care, proper nutrition, and contact with his legal team.

5. Final Exile to the Arctic and Death in Custody

Transfer to the "Polar Wolf" Colony: In December 2023, the state transferred Navalny to the IK-3 penal colony in Kharp, a remote facility located north of the Arctic Circle known for its brutal conditions. This effectively cut him off from public scrutiny and his legal defense.
Death in Custody (February 2024): On February 16, 2024, the Russian prison service announced that Alexei Navalny had died at the age of 47. International leaders, human rights organizations, and Navalny's widow, Yulia Navalnaya, hold Vladimir Putin directly responsible for his death, viewing it as the culmination of the state's decade-long campaign to eliminate him.
“Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside”
—Jim Morrison

“I love Cal deeply, by the way, what are the directions to The Portal from Sproul Plaza?”
Anarchistbear
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sycasey said:

Anarchistbear said:

Europe is dying, the unrest in France and other places underscores this. Rise of nativism, anti- immigration, more money into arms, less into reviving moribund economies. The future is bleak. This stupid war needs to stop. Deal with Putin- end sanctions, buy his gas at a reasonable price. Negotiate.

The war does need to end, but IMO you don't do this by essentially giving away the store to Putin right from the start. He has no reason to make any concessions at that point.

Any negotiations without the Ukrainians at the table are also a non-starter, IMO. That negotiation will not be seen as legitimate, not by Ukraine, not by Europe, not even by the American people. Anything you try to impose on Ukraine will just be viewed with resentment by the populace and leave simmering local tension. Some people in the West see this as a proxy war. They don't.


It might end like Korea which technically is still at war but with lines frozen. Ukraine should certainly be part of the negotiations since Russia has been thwarted. Security guarantees will be the tricky part. Ukraine will never be admitted to NATO.

It's a European problem not a US one- nothing at stake for us.
dajo9
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Anarchistbear said:

sycasey said:

Anarchistbear said:

Europe is dying, the unrest in France and other places underscores this. Rise of nativism, anti- immigration, more money into arms, less into reviving moribund economies. The future is bleak. This stupid war needs to stop. Deal with Putin- end sanctions, buy his gas at a reasonable price. Negotiate.

The war does need to end, but IMO you don't do this by essentially giving away the store to Putin right from the start. He has no reason to make any concessions at that point.

Any negotiations without the Ukrainians at the table are also a non-starter, IMO. That negotiation will not be seen as legitimate, not by Ukraine, not by Europe, not even by the American people. Anything you try to impose on Ukraine will just be viewed with resentment by the populace and leave simmering local tension. Some people in the West see this as a proxy war. They don't.


It might end like Korea which technically is still at war but with lines frozen. Ukraine should certainly be part of the negotiations since Russia has been thwarted. Security guarantees will be the tricky part. Ukraine will never be admitted to NATO.

It's a European problem not a US one- nothing at stake for us.


Security guarantees are meaningless. Russia and America guaranteed Ukraine's independence and borders when they gave up their nukes. Putin broke that agreement.

Never give up your nukes.
Anarchistbear
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dajo9 said:

Anarchistbear said:

sycasey said:

Anarchistbear said:

Europe is dying, the unrest in France and other places underscores this. Rise of nativism, anti- immigration, more money into arms, less into reviving moribund economies. The future is bleak. This stupid war needs to stop. Deal with Putin- end sanctions, buy his gas at a reasonable price. Negotiate.

The war does need to end, but IMO you don't do this by essentially giving away the store to Putin right from the start. He has no reason to make any concessions at that point.

Any negotiations without the Ukrainians at the table are also a non-starter, IMO. That negotiation will not be seen as legitimate, not by Ukraine, not by Europe, not even by the American people. Anything you try to impose on Ukraine will just be viewed with resentment by the populace and leave simmering local tension. Some people in the West see this as a proxy war. They don't.


It might end like Korea which technically is still at war but with lines frozen. Ukraine should certainly be part of the negotiations since Russia has been thwarted. Security guarantees will be the tricky part. Ukraine will never be admitted to NATO.

It's a European problem not a US one- nothing at stake for us.


Security guarantees are meaningless. Russia and America guaranteed Ukraine's independence and borders when they gave up their nukes. Putin broke that agreement.

Never give up your nukes.


The Europeans can plant nukes there. They're the ones who feel threatened. Obama was right, not our conflict.
dajo9
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Anarchistbear said:

dajo9 said:

Anarchistbear said:

sycasey said:

Anarchistbear said:

Europe is dying, the unrest in France and other places underscores this. Rise of nativism, anti- immigration, more money into arms, less into reviving moribund economies. The future is bleak. This stupid war needs to stop. Deal with Putin- end sanctions, buy his gas at a reasonable price. Negotiate.

The war does need to end, but IMO you don't do this by essentially giving away the store to Putin right from the start. He has no reason to make any concessions at that point.

Any negotiations without the Ukrainians at the table are also a non-starter, IMO. That negotiation will not be seen as legitimate, not by Ukraine, not by Europe, not even by the American people. Anything you try to impose on Ukraine will just be viewed with resentment by the populace and leave simmering local tension. Some people in the West see this as a proxy war. They don't.


It might end like Korea which technically is still at war but with lines frozen. Ukraine should certainly be part of the negotiations since Russia has been thwarted. Security guarantees will be the tricky part. Ukraine will never be admitted to NATO.

It's a European problem not a US one- nothing at stake for us.


Security guarantees are meaningless. Russia and America guaranteed Ukraine's independence and borders when they gave up their nukes. Putin broke that agreement.

Never give up your nukes.


The Europeans can plant nukes there. They're the ones who feel threatened. Obama was right, not our conflict.


Obama sent substantial military and financial aid. He was also President before Russia tried to conquer Kiev.
Anarchistbear
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dajo9 said:

Anarchistbear said:

dajo9 said:

Anarchistbear said:

sycasey said:

Anarchistbear said:

Europe is dying, the unrest in France and other places underscores this. Rise of nativism, anti- immigration, more money into arms, less into reviving moribund economies. The future is bleak. This stupid war needs to stop. Deal with Putin- end sanctions, buy his gas at a reasonable price. Negotiate.

The war does need to end, but IMO you don't do this by essentially giving away the store to Putin right from the start. He has no reason to make any concessions at that point.

Any negotiations without the Ukrainians at the table are also a non-starter, IMO. That negotiation will not be seen as legitimate, not by Ukraine, not by Europe, not even by the American people. Anything you try to impose on Ukraine will just be viewed with resentment by the populace and leave simmering local tension. Some people in the West see this as a proxy war. They don't.


It might end like Korea which technically is still at war but with lines frozen. Ukraine should certainly be part of the negotiations since Russia has been thwarted. Security guarantees will be the tricky part. Ukraine will never be admitted to NATO.

It's a European problem not a US one- nothing at stake for us.


Security guarantees are meaningless. Russia and America guaranteed Ukraine's independence and borders when they gave up their nukes. Putin broke that agreement.

Never give up your nukes.


The Europeans can plant nukes there. They're the ones who feel threatened. Obama was right, not our conflict.


Obama sent substantial military and financial aid. He was also President before Russia tried to conquer Kiev.


"As regards the two-year-old conflict between Ukraine and Russia, the president said Ukraine is a core interest for Moscow, in a way that it is not for the United States. He noted that, since Ukraine does not belong to NATO, it is vulnerable to Russian military domination, and that "we have to be very clear about what our core interests are and what we are willing to go to war for."
movielover
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Anarchistbear said:

sycasey said:

Anarchistbear said:

Europe is dying, the unrest in France and other places underscores this. Rise of nativism, anti- immigration, more money into arms, less into reviving moribund economies. The future is bleak. This stupid war needs to stop. Deal with Putin- end sanctions, buy his gas at a reasonable price. Negotiate.

The war does need to end, but IMO you don't do this by essentially giving away the store to Putin right from the start. He has no reason to make any concessions at that point.

Any negotiations without the Ukrainians at the table are also a non-starter, IMO. That negotiation will not be seen as legitimate, not by Ukraine, not by Europe, not even by the American people. Anything you try to impose on Ukraine will just be viewed with resentment by the populace and leave simmering local tension. Some people in the West see this as a proxy war. They don't.


It might end like Korea which technically is still at war but with lines frozen. Ukraine should certainly be part of the negotiations since Russia has been thwarted. Security guarantees will be the tricky part. Ukraine will never be admitted to NATO.

It's a European problem not a US one- nothing at stake for us.


Actually, the transvestite comedian wants:
1. Our money for weapons, and government
2. Money to rebuild
3. Our forces and men to provide protection; why can't Europe handle that, too many cheese eaters?
4. Ongoing graft payments (see #1)

*Note: Congress assigned no Inspector General to our hundreds of Billions transferred
dajo9
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Anarchistbear said:

dajo9 said:

Anarchistbear said:

dajo9 said:

Anarchistbear said:

sycasey said:

Anarchistbear said:

Europe is dying, the unrest in France and other places underscores this. Rise of nativism, anti- immigration, more money into arms, less into reviving moribund economies. The future is bleak. This stupid war needs to stop. Deal with Putin- end sanctions, buy his gas at a reasonable price. Negotiate.

The war does need to end, but IMO you don't do this by essentially giving away the store to Putin right from the start. He has no reason to make any concessions at that point.

Any negotiations without the Ukrainians at the table are also a non-starter, IMO. That negotiation will not be seen as legitimate, not by Ukraine, not by Europe, not even by the American people. Anything you try to impose on Ukraine will just be viewed with resentment by the populace and leave simmering local tension. Some people in the West see this as a proxy war. They don't.


It might end like Korea which technically is still at war but with lines frozen. Ukraine should certainly be part of the negotiations since Russia has been thwarted. Security guarantees will be the tricky part. Ukraine will never be admitted to NATO.

It's a European problem not a US one- nothing at stake for us.


Security guarantees are meaningless. Russia and America guaranteed Ukraine's independence and borders when they gave up their nukes. Putin broke that agreement.

Never give up your nukes.


The Europeans can plant nukes there. They're the ones who feel threatened. Obama was right, not our conflict.


Obama sent substantial military and financial aid. He was also President before Russia tried to conquer Kiev.


"As regards the two-year-old conflict between Ukraine and Russia, the president said Ukraine is a core interest for Moscow, in a way that it is not for the United States. He noted that, since Ukraine does not belong to NATO, it is vulnerable to Russian military domination, and that "we have to be very clear about what our core interests are and what we are willing to go to war for."


I agree with all of that. None of us wants America to go to war over Ukraine.
bearister
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After someone responds to my Navalny query (https://bearinsider.com/forums/6/topics/107414/replies/2764464)maybe they can share their reflections on Clumsy Russians Falling out of Buildings Syndrome:


Notable Fatal Falls (20222025)

Vladimir Shkliarov (November 2024): A world-famous principal ballet dancer with the Mariinsky Theatre The Moscow Times, he plunged to his death from a 5th-floor balcony.

Mikhail Rogachev (October 2024): The former Vice President of the defunct oil giant Yukos. His body was discovered in an apartment yard after he fell from a 10th-story Moscow apartment window.

Valentina Bondarenko (July 2024):
A prominent Russian economist and researcher who died after falling from her apartment window in Moscow Latintimes.

Natalia Larina (May 2024):
A former Russian judge who reportedly fell from a high-rise window.

Vladimir Egorov (December 2023):
A local politician and member of the ruling United Russia party Newsweek. He fell from a 3rd-floor window in Tobolsk.

Kristina Baikova (June 2023):
A 28-year-old executive and vice president at Loko-Bank. She suffered a fatal fall from an 11th-floor window of her Moscow apartment.

Artyom Bartenev (June 2023):
A federal judge who fell from a 12th-floor apartment window in Kazan.

Marina Yankina (February 2023):
A high-ranking defense official who headed the financial department of the Western Military District. Her body was found below a 16th-floor window of a high-rise building in St. Petersburg.

Pavel Antov (December 2022):
A wealthy sausage tycoon and local politician who had previously criticized Russia's strikes on Ukraine. He plunged from a hotel terrace/window while traveling in Rayagada, India.

Grigory Kochenov (December 2022): The creative director of the IT company Agima, who died after a fall from his balcony in Nizhny Novgorod.

Anatoly Gerashchenko (September 2022):
The former head of the Moscow Aviation Institute. He died after falling down a height of multiple stairs inside the institute's headquarters.

Ravil Maganov (September 2022): Chairman of Lukoil, Russia's second-largest oil company (which had publicly called for an end to the Ukraine war). He fell from a 6th-floor window of Moscow's Central Clinical Hospital.

Dan Rapoport (August 2022):
A Latvian-born, Russian-American investment banker and vocal critic of Vladimir Putin. He died after falling from a 9-story apartment building in Washington, D.C.

Earlier Historic Cases

Alexander "Sasha" Kagansky (December 2020):
A prominent biologist working on cellular frameworks and therapies Newsweek. He fell from a 14th-floor apartment window in St. Petersburg under disputed circumstances.

Nikolai Gorokhov (March 2017 - Survived):
The lawyer for the family of deceased whistleblower Sergei Magnitsky Amnesty. He survived a severe fall from a 5th-floor window just a day before he was due to present new evidence in court.

Ivan Safronov (March 2007):
A well-known Russian military journalist who wrote about systemic military corruption and illicit Russian arms sales to the Middle East. He died after plummeting from a 5th-floor staircase window in his Moscow apartment building.



“Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside”
—Jim Morrison

“I love Cal deeply, by the way, what are the directions to The Portal from Sproul Plaza?”
movielover
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No one claims Putin is a Saint. You don't think our CIA takes out people weekly?

We know who starts more wars, not even close.
dajo9
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movielover said:

No one claims Putin is a Saint. You don't think our CIA takes out people weekly?

We know who starts more wars, not even close.


Instant deflection
Cal88
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dajo9 said:

movielover said:

No one claims Putin is a Saint. You don't think our CIA takes out people weekly?

We know who starts more wars, not even close.


Instant deflection

When we triple tap girl schools, we don't get the moral high ground.
sycasey
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movielover said:

No one claims Putin is a Saint. You don't think our CIA takes out people weekly?

We know who starts more wars, not even close.

It's bad when we do it, and it's bad when he does it. In Ukraine he did it.
sycasey
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Once again I question Trump's loyalties here.

Cal88
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Trump wants to end the Ukraine war in order to focus on Iran. There is also a quid pro quo attempt with Russia, as in, we'll give you Ukraine if you stay out of Iran.

Trump's primary allegiance is to Israel, hence the Iran war and continued focus on Iran.

Good summary of the EU's focus on Russia from UMass economist Richard Wolff (caption: "Why would Europe want to destroy itself economically?" )

bearister
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movielover said:

No one claims Putin is a Saint. You don't think our CIA takes out people weekly?

We know who starts more wars, not even close.


As I have stated before, you could spend hours researching a White Paper caliber argument on an issue, post it here, and the BI Russian/Trump fan response is a flippant throw away line or two that took 30 seconds of thought.

The beauty of AI is I can spend that same 30 seconds finding a laundry list of substantive facts on an issue that never, ever, is rebutted other than the boilerplate weaksauce lazy boy response that it is AI drivel.

“Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside”
—Jim Morrison

“I love Cal deeply, by the way, what are the directions to The Portal from Sproul Plaza?”
sycasey
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Cal88 said:

Trump wants to end the Ukraine war in order to focus on Iran. There is also a quid pro quo attempt with Russia, as in, we'll give you Ukraine if you stay out of Iran.

And as I say, Trump is fooling himself if he thinks doing this stuff is going to end the war. Ukraine doesn't want to be given away.
Cal88
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sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

Trump wants to end the Ukraine war in order to focus on Iran. There is also a quid pro quo attempt with Russia, as in, we'll give you Ukraine if you stay out of Iran.

And as I say, Trump is fooling himself if he thinks doing this stuff is going to end the war. Ukraine doesn't want to be given away.

They have already "given away" over 1.5 million men, and lost more than half their population since the 90s.

The great majority of Ukrainians want to stop the bleeding through a negotiated settlement with Russia.

Putin is going to push for an Istanbul Plus formula next year as the Donbas campaign comes close to an end, Russia keeps the 4 oblasts already annexed, Ukraine out of NATO, neutral, equal rights for Russian speakers. The alternative being 1-3 more years of war and 4 more oblasts annexed including Odessa, Kharkov, Sumy and possibly Dnipro, and another million Ukrainian soldiers dead. There are no other alternatives and no military path to a Ukrainian victory.
sycasey
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Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

Trump wants to end the Ukraine war in order to focus on Iran. There is also a quid pro quo attempt with Russia, as in, we'll give you Ukraine if you stay out of Iran.

And as I say, Trump is fooling himself if he thinks doing this stuff is going to end the war. Ukraine doesn't want to be given away.

They have already "given away" over 1.5 million men, and lost more than half their population since the 90s.

And yet they are still fighting. Don't give me the "Ukrainians want to give up" stuff. I've seen what it looks like when you have an unmotivated army, it's called Afghanistan after America left and the Taliban rolled right in. Ukrainians clearly want to fight for their sovereignty and any negotiated settlement will have to include that or there is likely to be more fighting. Even if Russia had managed to topple the government on their first advance there would have just been long-term guerrilla warfare and resistance from Ukrainians who don't want to be under the Russian thumb.

Again: you're fooling yourselves if you think peace can just be imposed on Ukraine.
sycasey
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Trump is just getting this stuff fed to him by Putin, I'm guessing. This is idiocy:

bearister
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Trump: "Russia is a great power. Ukraine is not."

America is a great power. Iran is not. How is that going?
“Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside”
—Jim Morrison

“I love Cal deeply, by the way, what are the directions to The Portal from Sproul Plaza?”
sycasey
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bearister said:

Trump: "Russia is a great power. Ukraine is not."

America is a great power. Iran is not. How is that going?

On that score:

sycasey
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Dumbest guy in the Senate speaks up again:

Cal88
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Zelensky getting the memo?

sycasey
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Cal88 said:

Zelensky getting the memo?



I don't want to hear anyone talking about how Ukraine is the obstacle to peace now.
Cal88
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We might at the very least have a good starting point for a serious negotiation process. Good news!
sycasey
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Cal88 said:

We might at the very least have a good starting point for a serious negotiation process. Good news!

This "starting point" is at least a year old. It's nothing new.



The problem is that Ukraine wants security guarantees in exchange for giving up land (so they don't get invaded again) and Putin doesn't.
sycasey
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When I think of great humanitarians, I think of Vladimir Putin.

Cal88
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sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

We might at the very least have a good starting point for a serious negotiation process. Good news!

This "starting point" is at least a year old. It's nothing new.



The problem is that Ukraine wants security guarantees in exchange for giving up land (so they don't get invaded again) and Putin doesn't.


The Russians want regime change in Ukraine, borders are less important than having a neutral Ukraine next door, along the Austrian or Finnish post-war model.

Zelenski's statement is an admission of Ukraine/NATO inability to reconquer annexed territories and their increasing difficulties in holding the line, with the last Donbas defensive network of Kramatorsk now being close to the frontline.

The question is, will the Uniparty and MIC scuttle this attempt at peace and extend the war for another year or two? There are some realists in DC and in the Pentagon who might be pushing for a deal to cut their losses in an unwinnable war. Also the economic pressure on the EU is mounting, with austerity policies leading to riots that threaten to flare all over W. Europe.
sycasey
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Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

We might at the very least have a good starting point for a serious negotiation process. Good news!

This "starting point" is at least a year old. It's nothing new.



The problem is that Ukraine wants security guarantees in exchange for giving up land (so they don't get invaded again) and Putin doesn't.


The Russians want regime change in Ukraine, borders are less important than having a neutral Ukraine next door, along the Austrian or Finnish post-war model.

Zelenski's statement is an admission of Ukraine/NATO being unable to reconquer annexed territories and increasing difficulties in holding the line, with the last Donbas line of Kramatorsk now being the next big frontline theater.

The question is, will the Uniparty and MIC scuttle this attempt at peace and extend the war for another year or two? There are some realists in DC and in the Pentagon who might be pushing for a deal to cut their losses in an unwinnable war.

Russia shouldn't get to decide who governs Ukraine either. That just sets them up as a de facto vassal state. I doubt that's going to fly. If Russia couldn't take Kiev they don't get that.

Both sides have had difficulty in holding the line, so freezing at the current line makes some sense. The question is how to ensure it stays that way. Also what happens to the people who are there now? Do they get to relocate to Ukraine proper if they choose?
Cal88
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sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

We might at the very least have a good starting point for a serious negotiation process. Good news!

This "starting point" is at least a year old. It's nothing new.



The problem is that Ukraine wants security guarantees in exchange for giving up land (so they don't get invaded again) and Putin doesn't.


The Russians want regime change in Ukraine, borders are less important than having a neutral Ukraine next door, along the Austrian or Finnish post-war model.

Zelenski's statement is an admission of Ukraine/NATO being unable to reconquer annexed territories and increasing difficulties in holding the line, with the last Donbas line of Kramatorsk now being the next big frontline theater.

The question is, will the Uniparty and MIC scuttle this attempt at peace and extend the war for another year or two? There are some realists in DC and in the Pentagon who might be pushing for a deal to cut their losses in an unwinnable war.

Russia shouldn't get to decide who governs Ukraine either. That just sets them up as a de facto vassal state. I doubt that's going to fly. If Russia couldn't take Kiev they don't get that.

Both sides have had difficulty in holding the line, so freezing at the current line makes some sense. The question is how to ensure it stays that way. Also what happens to the people who are there now? Do they get to relocate to Ukraine proper if they choose?


The Russians would be satisfied with a moderate, pro-peace government in Kiev, the current one is a nationalist anti-Russian government that views all Russian aspects as undesirable, banning Russian language etc.

It is Ukraine that is having difficulty holding the line, by their own admission recently with the statement of monthly losses exceeding 27,000 men. The cities of Zaporizhe, Kherson, Sumy and Kharkov will be near the frontline soon, Ukraine has a lot to lose, and they have severe manpower issues going forward, they are on the verge of having the war come home due to the relentless pressure from these losses.

sycasey
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Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

We might at the very least have a good starting point for a serious negotiation process. Good news!

This "starting point" is at least a year old. It's nothing new.



The problem is that Ukraine wants security guarantees in exchange for giving up land (so they don't get invaded again) and Putin doesn't.


The Russians want regime change in Ukraine, borders are less important than having a neutral Ukraine next door, along the Austrian or Finnish post-war model.

Zelenski's statement is an admission of Ukraine/NATO being unable to reconquer annexed territories and increasing difficulties in holding the line, with the last Donbas line of Kramatorsk now being the next big frontline theater.

The question is, will the Uniparty and MIC scuttle this attempt at peace and extend the war for another year or two? There are some realists in DC and in the Pentagon who might be pushing for a deal to cut their losses in an unwinnable war.

Russia shouldn't get to decide who governs Ukraine either. That just sets them up as a de facto vassal state. I doubt that's going to fly. If Russia couldn't take Kiev they don't get that.

Both sides have had difficulty in holding the line, so freezing at the current line makes some sense. The question is how to ensure it stays that way. Also what happens to the people who are there now? Do they get to relocate to Ukraine proper if they choose?


The Russians would be satisfied with a moderate, pro-peace government in Kiev, the current one is a nationalist anti-Russian government that views all Russian aspects as undesirable, banning Russian language etc.

If the Ukrainians think that a government has been imposed upon them by Russia it will not be seen as legitimate and we'll just be right back to all this again. Russia does not get to decide who governs Ukraine.
Cal88
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sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

We might at the very least have a good starting point for a serious negotiation process. Good news!

This "starting point" is at least a year old. It's nothing new.



The problem is that Ukraine wants security guarantees in exchange for giving up land (so they don't get invaded again) and Putin doesn't.


The Russians want regime change in Ukraine, borders are less important than having a neutral Ukraine next door, along the Austrian or Finnish post-war model.

Zelenski's statement is an admission of Ukraine/NATO being unable to reconquer annexed territories and increasing difficulties in holding the line, with the last Donbas line of Kramatorsk now being the next big frontline theater.

The question is, will the Uniparty and MIC scuttle this attempt at peace and extend the war for another year or two? There are some realists in DC and in the Pentagon who might be pushing for a deal to cut their losses in an unwinnable war.

Russia shouldn't get to decide who governs Ukraine either. That just sets them up as a de facto vassal state. I doubt that's going to fly. If Russia couldn't take Kiev they don't get that.

Both sides have had difficulty in holding the line, so freezing at the current line makes some sense. The question is how to ensure it stays that way. Also what happens to the people who are there now? Do they get to relocate to Ukraine proper if they choose?


The Russians would be satisfied with a moderate, pro-peace government in Kiev, the current one is a nationalist anti-Russian government that views all Russian aspects as undesirable, banning Russian language etc.

If the Ukrainians think that a government has been imposed upon them by Russia it will not be seen as legitimate and we'll just be right back to all this again. Russia does not get to decide who governs Ukraine.

At the very least, the Russians will be able to veto a Kiev government that is anti-Russian, they will keep fighting until that condition is fulfilled. They have the military and economic upper hand.
sycasey
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Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

We might at the very least have a good starting point for a serious negotiation process. Good news!

This "starting point" is at least a year old. It's nothing new.



The problem is that Ukraine wants security guarantees in exchange for giving up land (so they don't get invaded again) and Putin doesn't.


The Russians want regime change in Ukraine, borders are less important than having a neutral Ukraine next door, along the Austrian or Finnish post-war model.

Zelenski's statement is an admission of Ukraine/NATO being unable to reconquer annexed territories and increasing difficulties in holding the line, with the last Donbas line of Kramatorsk now being the next big frontline theater.

The question is, will the Uniparty and MIC scuttle this attempt at peace and extend the war for another year or two? There are some realists in DC and in the Pentagon who might be pushing for a deal to cut their losses in an unwinnable war.

Russia shouldn't get to decide who governs Ukraine either. That just sets them up as a de facto vassal state. I doubt that's going to fly. If Russia couldn't take Kiev they don't get that.

Both sides have had difficulty in holding the line, so freezing at the current line makes some sense. The question is how to ensure it stays that way. Also what happens to the people who are there now? Do they get to relocate to Ukraine proper if they choose?


The Russians would be satisfied with a moderate, pro-peace government in Kiev, the current one is a nationalist anti-Russian government that views all Russian aspects as undesirable, banning Russian language etc.

If the Ukrainians think that a government has been imposed upon them by Russia it will not be seen as legitimate and we'll just be right back to all this again. Russia does not get to decide who governs Ukraine.

At the very least, the Russians will be able to veto a Kiev government that is anti-Russian, they will keep fighting until that condition is fulfilled. They have the military and economic upper hand.

And I say again: if they try to impose a new government that the population sees as illegitimate, there will not be lasting peace. This would be like Israel trying to install a new Palestinian Authority that they approved of and calling that new version of Palestine a free country. Not gonna work.

Your continued glazing of Russia's prospects is noted, though.
movielover
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Is Zelenskyy sincere, or is this another ploy to reload and regroup.

Most of Western Europe is already suffering civil unrest, add in even higher energy prices and / or limited energy deliveries? Not good. Russia recently hammered a few dozen energy targets, and bridges, in the Kiev region. No Patriot missiles available, and suspect track record.

Meanwhile, China, Russia and USA may propose their own peace plan. Notice: no meddling anti-peace EU.

I still say, hit some Kiev Bentley dealerships. Great PR.
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