dajo9 said:
The Fed has the option to bury the economy. Instead I think they should aim for the win.
How many times does a report have to come in better than expected before you adjust your models? pic.twitter.com/4S7Yb8dD2Q
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) June 2, 2023
Dark Brandon is crushing it pic.twitter.com/w0L8xCzIW8
— Andrew Bates (@AndrewJBates46) August 7, 2022
The US is in the grip of a factory-building boom as government incentives to spur domestic manufacturing drive a wave of investment https://t.co/ISk1xvtZvb
— Bloomberg (@business) June 2, 2023
It's a mixed economy, don't you think?concordtom said:
Interesting new thread because if one were to listen to certain outlets (Trump, et al) the economy is completely in the crapper.
tequila4kapp said:It's a mixed economy, don't you think?concordtom said:
Interesting new thread because if one were to listen to certain outlets (Trump, et al) the economy is completely in the crapper.
Employment numbers are great. But inflation, actual wages, etc are opposite.
Lemme repeat over and over: The economic vibe doesn't match our economic reality. pic.twitter.com/a8OJouJ0Fq
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) June 1, 2023
dajo9 said:The media is presenting a negative vibe of the economy that doesn't match the reality most people are experiencing. Corporate news always trashes the economy when a Democrat is President.tequila4kapp said:It's a mixed economy, don't you think?concordtom said:
Interesting new thread because if one were to listen to certain outlets (Trump, et al) the economy is completely in the crapper.
Employment numbers are great. But inflation, actual wages, etc are opposite.
Job Numbers Have NOT Grown But The Double Counting Has - E.J. Antoni pic.twitter.com/Q7W2vOqN24
— Grace Chong πΊπΈ (@gc22gc) June 3, 2023
BearHunter said:dajo9 said:The media is presenting a negative vibe of the economy that doesn't match the reality most people are experiencing. Corporate news always trashes the economy when a Democrat is President.tequila4kapp said:It's a mixed economy, don't you think?concordtom said:
Interesting new thread because if one were to listen to certain outlets (Trump, et al) the economy is completely in the crapper.
Employment numbers are great. But inflation, actual wages, etc are opposite.Job Numbers Have NOT Grown But The Double Counting Has - E.J. Antoni pic.twitter.com/Q7W2vOqN24
— Grace Chong πΊπΈ (@gc22gc) June 3, 2023
It's a mixed jobs report due to the double counting of jobs.
Are more people taking on multiple jobs than previously?dajo9 said:
Lol
You sound like hard core lefties during the GWB Presidency. Same claims.
BearHunter said:Are more people taking on multiple jobs than previously?dajo9 said:
Lol
You sound like hard core lefties during the GWB Presidency. Same claims.
Are more small business closing and people finding new work than previously?
dajo9 said:BearHunter said:Are more people taking on multiple jobs than previously?dajo9 said:
Lol
You sound like hard core lefties during the GWB Presidency. Same claims.
Are more small business closing and people finding new work than previously?
Are you upset about the Biden jobs boom?
BearHunter said:dajo9 said:BearHunter said:Are more people taking on multiple jobs than previously?dajo9 said:
Lol
You sound like hard core lefties during the GWB Presidency. Same claims.
Are more small business closing and people finding new work than previously?
Are you upset about the Biden jobs boom?
Tech is laying off thousands and the yield curve is inverted, screaming recession.
Every time the Household Survey and Payroll Survey get out of sync, fans of the party out of power start chirping about it. I remember it well from Democrats when GWB was President.tequila4kapp said:
This source provides this context for the jobs reports. This is an area I do not know about. Two questions: 1) is this factually correct? 2) has it always been this way or are these practices newer?
https://mishtalk.com/economics/another-big-jobs-blowout-are-the-numbers-believable-or-will-there-be-revisions
Household Survey vs. Payroll Survey
The payroll survey (sometimes called the establishment survey) is the headline jobs number, generally released the first Friday of every month. It is based on employer reporting.
The household survey is a phone survey conducted by the BLS. It measures unemployment and many other factors.
If you work one hour, you are employed. If you don't have a job and fail to look for one, you are not considered unemployed, rather, you drop out of the labor force.
Looking for Job Openings on Jooble or Monster or in the want ads does not count as "looking for a job". You need an actual interview or send out a resume.
These distortions artificially lower the unemployment rate, artificially boost full-time employment, and artificially increase the payroll jobs report every month.
-
Divergences
Once again we see a divergence between jobs and employment. Past divergences have resolved in the direction of jobs. One of these sets likely won't.
March employment level: 158,458,000.
April employment level: 158,105,000.
May employment level: 158,426,000.
June employment level: 158,111,000.
July employment level: 158,290,000.
That's five months of heading nowhere or down. The employment change since March is -168,000.
Synopsis Since March
Employment -168,000
Jobs +1,680,000
Sometimes I can't tell if you lack basic reading comprehension or if you are just innately an *******. I unblocked you in hope that I might get an actual answer to the question I posed - STATING THAT I DO NOT HAVE KNOWLEDGE IN THIS AREA - you know, TRYING TO LEARN. But apparently that is too much to ask. Back to Blocking you.dajo9 said:Every time the Household Survey and Payroll Survey get out of sync, fans of the party out of power start chirping about it. I remember it well from Democrats when GWB was President.tequila4kapp said:
This source provides this context for the jobs reports. This is an area I do not know about. Two questions: 1) is this factually correct? 2) has it always been this way or are these practices newer?
https://mishtalk.com/economics/another-big-jobs-blowout-are-the-numbers-believable-or-will-there-be-revisions
Household Survey vs. Payroll Survey
The payroll survey (sometimes called the establishment survey) is the headline jobs number, generally released the first Friday of every month. It is based on employer reporting.
The household survey is a phone survey conducted by the BLS. It measures unemployment and many other factors.
If you work one hour, you are employed. If you don't have a job and fail to look for one, you are not considered unemployed, rather, you drop out of the labor force.
Looking for Job Openings on Jooble or Monster or in the want ads does not count as "looking for a job". You need an actual interview or send out a resume.
These distortions artificially lower the unemployment rate, artificially boost full-time employment, and artificially increase the payroll jobs report every month.
-
Divergences
Once again we see a divergence between jobs and employment. Past divergences have resolved in the direction of jobs. One of these sets likely won't.
March employment level: 158,458,000.
April employment level: 158,105,000.
May employment level: 158,426,000.
June employment level: 158,111,000.
July employment level: 158,290,000.
That's five months of heading nowhere or down. The employment change since March is -168,000.
Synopsis Since March
Employment -168,000
Jobs +1,680,000
Bottom line - 2 surveys. 1 showing big jobs numbers and 1 showing 3.7% unemployment. But keep digging. I'm sure you'll find something that confirms your biases.
tequila4kapp said:Sometimes I can't tell if you lack basic reading comprehension or if you are just innately an *******. I unblocked you in hope that I might get an actual answer to the question I posed - STATING THAT I DO NOT HAVE KNOWLEDGE IN THIS AREA - you know, TRYING TO LEARN. But apparently that is too much to ask. Back to Blocking you.dajo9 said:Every time the Household Survey and Payroll Survey get out of sync, fans of the party out of power start chirping about it. I remember it well from Democrats when GWB was President.tequila4kapp said:
This source provides this context for the jobs reports. This is an area I do not know about. Two questions: 1) is this factually correct? 2) has it always been this way or are these practices newer?
https://mishtalk.com/economics/another-big-jobs-blowout-are-the-numbers-believable-or-will-there-be-revisions
Household Survey vs. Payroll Survey
The payroll survey (sometimes called the establishment survey) is the headline jobs number, generally released the first Friday of every month. It is based on employer reporting.
The household survey is a phone survey conducted by the BLS. It measures unemployment and many other factors.
If you work one hour, you are employed. If you don't have a job and fail to look for one, you are not considered unemployed, rather, you drop out of the labor force.
Looking for Job Openings on Jooble or Monster or in the want ads does not count as "looking for a job". You need an actual interview or send out a resume.
These distortions artificially lower the unemployment rate, artificially boost full-time employment, and artificially increase the payroll jobs report every month.
-
Divergences
Once again we see a divergence between jobs and employment. Past divergences have resolved in the direction of jobs. One of these sets likely won't.
March employment level: 158,458,000.
April employment level: 158,105,000.
May employment level: 158,426,000.
June employment level: 158,111,000.
July employment level: 158,290,000.
That's five months of heading nowhere or down. The employment change since March is -168,000.
Synopsis Since March
Employment -168,000
Jobs +1,680,000
Bottom line - 2 surveys. 1 showing big jobs numbers and 1 showing 3.7% unemployment. But keep digging. I'm sure you'll find something that confirms your biases.
dajo9 said:BearHunter said:dajo9 said:BearHunter said:Are more people taking on multiple jobs than previously?dajo9 said:
Lol
You sound like hard core lefties during the GWB Presidency. Same claims.
Are more small business closing and people finding new work than previously?
Are you upset about the Biden jobs boom?
Tech is laying off thousands and the yield curve is inverted, screaming recession.
Yes, the Fed has caused the yield curve to scream recession. All the more reason why the Biden jobs boom is impressive.
Why are you rooting against America?
The Latest Jobs Numbers Seem ImpressiveβUntil You Look Closer https://t.co/6aWUlqzvyS
— Heritage Foundation (@Heritage) September 10, 2022
Why the hell would anyone listen to this crook?BearHunter said:dajo9 said:The media is presenting a negative vibe of the economy that doesn't match the reality most people are experiencing. Corporate news always trashes the economy when a Democrat is President.tequila4kapp said:It's a mixed economy, don't you think?concordtom said:
Interesting new thread because if one were to listen to certain outlets (Trump, et al) the economy is completely in the crapper.
Employment numbers are great. But inflation, actual wages, etc are opposite.Job Numbers Have NOT Grown But The Double Counting Has - E.J. Antoni pic.twitter.com/Q7W2vOqN24
— Grace Chong πΊπΈ (@gc22gc) June 3, 2023
It's a mixed jobs report due to the double counting of jobs.
What "service/wage inflation"??calbear93 said:dajo9 said:Here we go, the mighty jobs day thread!
— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) May 5, 2023
253,000 new jobs, another really strong jobs report!
So we are now:
33.8m jobs = 16 yrs Clinton, Obama
12.7m jobs = 27 months Biden
1.9m jobs = 16 yrs Bush, Bush, Trump 1/ pic.twitter.com/mcNmYCBLki
Aren't we trying to bring up the unemployment rate to slow down the service/wage inflation that remains sticky? We don't want a double dip inflation. As such, wouldn't the FED be less inclined to ease anytime soon as long as unemployment remains low with inflation still higher than target?
BearHunter said:dajo9 said:BearHunter said:Are more people taking on multiple jobs than previously?dajo9 said:
Lol
You sound like hard core lefties during the GWB Presidency. Same claims.
Are more small business closing and people finding new work than previously?
Are you upset about the Biden jobs boom?
Tech is laying off thousands and the yield curve is inverted, screaming recession.
That's some crystal ball he has! If he already can accurately foresee the June and July employment numbers, he should be using that crystal ball on the stock market or Las Vegas.tequila4kapp said:
This source provides this context for the jobs reports. This is an area I do not know about. Two questions: 1) is this factually correct? 2) has it always been this way or are these practices newer?
https://mishtalk.com/economics/another-big-jobs-blowout-are-the-numbers-believable-or-will-there-be-revisions
Household Survey vs. Payroll Survey
The payroll survey (sometimes called the establishment survey) is the headline jobs number, generally released the first Friday of every month. It is based on employer reporting.
The household survey is a phone survey conducted by the BLS. It measures unemployment and many other factors.
If you work one hour, you are employed. If you don't have a job and fail to look for one, you are not considered unemployed, rather, you drop out of the labor force.
Looking for Job Openings on Jooble or Monster or in the want ads does not count as "looking for a job". You need an actual interview or send out a resume.
These distortions artificially lower the unemployment rate, artificially boost full-time employment, and artificially increase the payroll jobs report every month.
-
Divergences
Once again we see a divergence between jobs and employment. Past divergences have resolved in the direction of jobs. One of these sets likely won't.
March employment level: 158,458,000.
April employment level: 158,105,000.
May employment level: 158,426,000.
June employment level: 158,111,000.
July employment level: 158,290,000.
That's five months of heading nowhere or down. The employment change since March is -168,000.
Synopsis Since March
Employment -168,000
Jobs +1,680,000
DiabloWags said:BearHunter said:dajo9 said:BearHunter said:Are more people taking on multiple jobs than previously?dajo9 said:
Lol
You sound like hard core lefties during the GWB Presidency. Same claims.
Are more small business closing and people finding new work than previously?
Are you upset about the Biden jobs boom?
Tech is laying off thousands and the yield curve is inverted, screaming recession.
Once again, you demonstrate that you have NO CLUE what you're talking about.
FACT: The yield curve has been INVERTED FOR A FULL YEAR and there's been no Recession.
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (T10Y2Y) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)
Do you know why genius???
BearHunter said:DiabloWags said:BearHunter said:dajo9 said:BearHunter said:Are more people taking on multiple jobs than previously?dajo9 said:
Lol
You sound like hard core lefties during the GWB Presidency. Same claims.
Are more small business closing and people finding new work than previously?
Are you upset about the Biden jobs boom?
Tech is laying off thousands and the yield curve is inverted, screaming recession.
Once again, you demonstrate that you have NO CLUE what you're talking about.
FACT: The yield curve has been INVERTED FOR A FULL YEAR and there's been no Recession.
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (T10Y2Y) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)
Do you know why genius???
Bro, you can take comfort in knowing that Janet Yellen taught at Cal and she has NO CLUE what she's doing or talking about.
QUESTION: Historically, what is the average time between the onset of the inverted yield curve and the beginning of a recession?
What did Grace Chong do to you?GoOskie said:Why the hell would anyone listen to this crook?BearHunter said:dajo9 said:The media is presenting a negative vibe of the economy that doesn't match the reality most people are experiencing. Corporate news always trashes the economy when a Democrat is President.tequila4kapp said:It's a mixed economy, don't you think?concordtom said:
Interesting new thread because if one were to listen to certain outlets (Trump, et al) the economy is completely in the crapper.
Employment numbers are great. But inflation, actual wages, etc are opposite.Job Numbers Have NOT Grown But The Double Counting Has - E.J. Antoni pic.twitter.com/Q7W2vOqN24
— Grace Chong πΊπΈ (@gc22gc) June 3, 2023
It's a mixed jobs report due to the double counting of jobs.
BearHunter said:Job Numbers Have NOT Grown But The Double Counting Has - E.J. Antoni pic.twitter.com/Q7W2vOqN24
— Grace Chong πΊπΈ (@gc22gc) June 3, 2023
It's a mixed jobs report due to the double counting of jobs.
BearFarce said:
It's a mixed jobs report due to the double counting of jobs.
BearFarce said:
Are more people taking on multiple jobs than previously?
DiabloWags said:BearHunter said:
It's a mixed jobs report due to the double counting of jobs.
So Trump was bragging about black unemployment being super low because of double-counting?
Is that what his Administration was doing?
BearFarce said:
Bro, you can take comfort in knowing that Janet Yellen taught at Cal and she has NO CLUE what she's doing or talking about.
DiabloWags said:Youre a moron.BearFarce said:
Bro, you can take comfort in knowing that Janet Yellen taught at Cal and she has NO CLUE what she's doing or talking about.
Or do you actually believe that the Dow Jones rose 700 POINTS on Friday because of "double-counting" in the employment report?
This weeks changing definition of recession:
— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) June 5, 2023
'Full-Employment Recession' pic.twitter.com/J22KW5miho
BearFarce said:
Bro, this looks like Wall Street Journal font.
The question isn't if jobs were double counted, the question is by how much?
DiabloWags said:Congratulations.BearFarce said:
Bro, this looks like Wall Street Journal font.
The question isn't if jobs were double counted, the question is by how much?
You just posted an article that has absolutely NOTHING to do with the rate of employment, let alone your "double counting" narrative. Never mind conflating GDP with GDI.
Let's be honest.
Youre Dumber than Dumb.
tequilla4kapp said:
This is a area I do not know about.
Joe Biden is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful president I've ever known in my life. pic.twitter.com/GTOZ5cjoZw
— Trekkie Bill π #STLV2023 (@trekkiebill) June 3, 2023
I don't think you ever worked in a corporation where pricing decisions are made.cbbass1 said:What "service/wage inflation"??calbear93 said:dajo9 said:Here we go, the mighty jobs day thread!
— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) May 5, 2023
253,000 new jobs, another really strong jobs report!
So we are now:
33.8m jobs = 16 yrs Clinton, Obama
12.7m jobs = 27 months Biden
1.9m jobs = 16 yrs Bush, Bush, Trump 1/ pic.twitter.com/mcNmYCBLki
Aren't we trying to bring up the unemployment rate to slow down the service/wage inflation that remains sticky? We don't want a double dip inflation. As such, wouldn't the FED be less inclined to ease anytime soon as long as unemployment remains low with inflation still higher than target?
That's not what's driving Inflation & increases in the CPI. Over 50% of CPI increases are due to price gouging by producers with pricing power.
The inflation leads the wage increases, not the other way around.
calbear93 said:I don't think you ever worked in a corporation where pricing decisions are made.cbbass1 said:What "service/wage inflation"??calbear93 said:dajo9 said:Here we go, the mighty jobs day thread!
— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) May 5, 2023
253,000 new jobs, another really strong jobs report!
So we are now:
33.8m jobs = 16 yrs Clinton, Obama
12.7m jobs = 27 months Biden
1.9m jobs = 16 yrs Bush, Bush, Trump 1/ pic.twitter.com/mcNmYCBLki
Aren't we trying to bring up the unemployment rate to slow down the service/wage inflation that remains sticky? We don't want a double dip inflation. As such, wouldn't the FED be less inclined to ease anytime soon as long as unemployment remains low with inflation still higher than target?
That's not what's driving Inflation & increases in the CPI. Over 50% of CPI increases are due to price gouging by producers with pricing power.
The inflation leads the wage increases, not the other way around.
No, the low employment rate and job hopping for better pay created an unprecedented increase in compensation for employees, especially in the technology fields. If you have ever worked for a public company, you understand the importance of operating margin and earnings. The way to protect margins when there is a spike in compensation is to raise prices. You can say executives should not raise prices but instead allow earnings to deteriorate. Well, then the shareholders would sell, the stock would plummet, and directors will find other leaders. And if you are against all this, then stop investing in the markets and put money in a savings account because your investment in pensions funds (who invest in hedge funds) and in mutual funds are driving this behavior.
Well, that is misleading. Market will not bear random price increases because there will be someone who can do it better and more efficiently if it is not a production cost driven price increasedajo9 said:calbear93 said:I don't think you ever worked in a corporation where pricing decisions are made.cbbass1 said:What "service/wage inflation"??calbear93 said:dajo9 said:Here we go, the mighty jobs day thread!
— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) May 5, 2023
253,000 new jobs, another really strong jobs report!
So we are now:
33.8m jobs = 16 yrs Clinton, Obama
12.7m jobs = 27 months Biden
1.9m jobs = 16 yrs Bush, Bush, Trump 1/ pic.twitter.com/mcNmYCBLki
Aren't we trying to bring up the unemployment rate to slow down the service/wage inflation that remains sticky? We don't want a double dip inflation. As such, wouldn't the FED be less inclined to ease anytime soon as long as unemployment remains low with inflation still higher than target?
That's not what's driving Inflation & increases in the CPI. Over 50% of CPI increases are due to price gouging by producers with pricing power.
The inflation leads the wage increases, not the other way around.
No, the low employment rate and job hopping for better pay created an unprecedented increase in compensation for employees, especially in the technology fields. If you have ever worked for a public company, you understand the importance of operating margin and earnings. The way to protect margins when there is a spike in compensation is to raise prices. You can say executives should not raise prices but instead allow earnings to deteriorate. Well, then the shareholders would sell, the stock would plummet, and directors will find other leaders. And if you are against all this, then stop investing in the markets and put money in a savings account because your investment in pensions funds (who invest in hedge funds) and in mutual funds are driving this behavior.
Corporations will charge what the market bears. They don't wait for costs to increase if they can raise prices, they'll raise prices. There is a lot of data supporting profits driven inflation, which is simply prices going up faster than input costs.
https://www.axios.com/2023/05/18/once-a-fringe-theory-greedflation-gets-its-due
