Over the years early polls have tended to indicate more popularity for certain candidates than turns out to be the case during elections. Why is this?
I believe it has to do with advertising and messaging.
For example, as popular and powerful as Trump seems, the opposition hasn't even begun to advertise and message against him. With so much potential ammunition against Trump and any extremist politics that can be used in advertising, it is only a matter of time until public opinion shifts. Yes the media shapes public opinion, but the supposed populism of Donald Trump is partly a product of the way that Republicans tend to insolate themselves from any news that isn't extreme right wing propaganda.
That won't be as easy to do with advertising. If you don't believe me then just look at what happened in both 2022 when it seemed that there was going to be a red wave until carefully crafted advertising put the issue of abortion front and center.
It is true that most Republicans will still support Trump. But, to win battleground states Republicans and Trump will need opposition and independent voters to have poor turnout. There are plenty of ways for advertisers to galvanize those other voters to come to the polls and vote against Trump. More so than in 2022.
I would say that these advertisers will save their money until they have a better idea of who the nominees will be. And it is still unclear on who that will be. But come next summer, whatever poll results have shown until then, will start to show a pretty steady blueshift, even if very unpopular Biden is the nominee. So those that are being scared into thinking Trump will win because of polls need to take a step back and grasp what the process of influencing public opinion actually involves.
I believe it has to do with advertising and messaging.
For example, as popular and powerful as Trump seems, the opposition hasn't even begun to advertise and message against him. With so much potential ammunition against Trump and any extremist politics that can be used in advertising, it is only a matter of time until public opinion shifts. Yes the media shapes public opinion, but the supposed populism of Donald Trump is partly a product of the way that Republicans tend to insolate themselves from any news that isn't extreme right wing propaganda.
That won't be as easy to do with advertising. If you don't believe me then just look at what happened in both 2022 when it seemed that there was going to be a red wave until carefully crafted advertising put the issue of abortion front and center.
It is true that most Republicans will still support Trump. But, to win battleground states Republicans and Trump will need opposition and independent voters to have poor turnout. There are plenty of ways for advertisers to galvanize those other voters to come to the polls and vote against Trump. More so than in 2022.
I would say that these advertisers will save their money until they have a better idea of who the nominees will be. And it is still unclear on who that will be. But come next summer, whatever poll results have shown until then, will start to show a pretty steady blueshift, even if very unpopular Biden is the nominee. So those that are being scared into thinking Trump will win because of polls need to take a step back and grasp what the process of influencing public opinion actually involves.
