Brutal.

bear2034 said:

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SBGold said:

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https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/04/politics/video/lichtman-harris-prediction-trump-election-digvid

Dude is never wrong

VOTE BLUE

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I am not joking when I say this is one of the greatest clips I've ever seen on a cable news show.

Cenk completely destroys Alan Lichtman by pointing out that his keys to the White House were wrong and Lichtman responds by accusing him of blasphemy.😂pic.twitter.com/4G1YF3cxTy

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) November 19, 2024

The great Cenk Uygur said the dude (Prof. Allan Lichtman) was wrong to his face.

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The professor has more intelligence and historical knowledge than all those other knobs combined.

sycasey said:

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I never put much stock in Lichtman or his keys, and one silver lining of this election is that it can finally bury his "method" once and for all.

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How many books did he say he had published?? He got more notoriety off that 10 for 10 streak than all his books.

And then he gets it wrong and is called out of it and claims blasphemy, and how dare someone embarrass him on tv like that.

I always thought it was lame how he would sit there beaming with that big smile and air of confidence as interviewers would ask him who is going to win the election. Now that the script has flipped, he's really lost his reputation, I imagine.

Meanwhile, Piers Morgan is just sitting back there, relishing the cat fight. What a clown.

This is where our public disc of serious matters has gone. To the clown shows.

Ironically, Lichtman's 13 keys still held up in this election, the problem was his political bias in assessing them. For example, he has "strong long-term economy" and "major foreign or military success" as true:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House#Lichtman's_prediction_record_(1984%E2%80%93present)

concordtom said:

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sycasey said:

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I never put much stock in Lichtman or his keys, and one silver lining of this election is that it can finally bury his "method" once and for all.

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How many books did he say he had published?? He got more notoriety off that 10 for 10 streak than all his books.

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The 10 of 10 streak was already pretty questionable. He predicted Gore would beat Bush in 2000, but when that didn't happen he claimed that his "keys" really only predicted the popular vote.

But then when he predicted Trump would beat Hillary in 2016, no mention of how he really "lost" that prediction because of the popular vote. He was always trying to have it both ways.

sycasey said:

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concordtom said:

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sycasey said:

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I never put much stock in Lichtman or his keys, and one silver lining of this election is that it can finally bury his "method" once and for all.

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How many books did he say he had published?? He got more notoriety off that 10 for 10 streak than all his books.

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The 10 of 10 streak was already pretty questionable. He predicted Gore would beat Bush in 2000, but when that didn't happen he claimed that his "keys" really only predicted the popular vote.

But then when he predicted Trump would beat Hillary in 2016, no mention of how he really "lost" that prediction because of the popular vote. He was always trying to have it both ways.

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Do you have a source for this? I'm not trying to die on any hill for the professor, but he's always stated that his keys have nothing to do with the popular vote.

concordtom said:

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sycasey said:

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I never put much stock in Lichtman or his keys, and one silver lining of this election is that it can finally bury his "method" once and for all.

---

How many books did he say he had published?? He got more notoriety off that 10 for 10 streak than all his books.

And then he gets it wrong and is called out of it and claims blasphemy, and how dare someone embarrass him on tv like that.

I always thought it was lame how he would sit there beaming with that big smile and air of confidence as interviewers would ask him who is going to win the election. Now that the script has flipped, he's really lost his reputation, I imagine.

Meanwhile, Piers Morgan is just sitting back there, relishing the cat fight. What a clown.

This is where our public disc of serious matters has gone. To the clown shows.

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He has quite a few books. I've never read any but I do have two on order from the library. He does seem riled up lately and I don't know why he goes on these "shows" with these idiots. Check out his podcast. He's a wealth of knowledge and gives a lot of interesting political and historical insights.

GoOskie said:

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sycasey said:

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concordtom said:

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sycasey said:

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I never put much stock in Lichtman or his keys, and one silver lining of this election is that it can finally bury his "method" once and for all.

---

How many books did he say he had published?? He got more notoriety off that 10 for 10 streak than all his books.

---

The 10 of 10 streak was already pretty questionable. He predicted Gore would beat Bush in 2000, but when that didn't happen he claimed that his "keys" really only predicted the popular vote.

But then when he predicted Trump would beat Hillary in 2016, no mention of how he really "lost" that prediction because of the popular vote. He was always trying to have it both ways.

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Do you have a source for this? I'm not trying to die on any hill for the professor, but he's always stated that his keys have nothing to do with the popular vote.

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House#Lichtman's_prediction_record_(1984%E2%80%93present)

Quote:

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Lichtman argues that in 2000, the keys predicted the winner of the popular vote, which Gore indeed won. In his 1988 book The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency, Lichtman defined his model as predicting the outcome of the popular vote.

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Cal88 said:

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Ironically, Lichtman's 13 keys still held up in this election, the problem was his political bias in assessing them. For example, he has "strong long-term economy" and "major foreign or military success" as true:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House#Lichtman's_prediction_record_(1984%E2%80%93present)

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strong long-term economy is true

major foreign or military success. He seemed to waffle on this one quite a bit.

GoOskie said:

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Cal88 said:

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Ironically, Lichtman's 13 keys still held up in this election, the problem was his political bias in assessing them. For example, he has "strong long-term economy" and "major foreign or military success" as true:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House#Lichtman's_prediction_record_(1984%E2%80%93present)

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strong long-term economy is true

major foreign or military success. He seemed to waffle on this one quite a bit.

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This is the big problem with the keys . . . several of them are very subjective judgments.

Lichtman likes to argue that his method is better than looking at polls, but honestly, most of the elections he "called" were pretty easy to call if you just looked at polls. On the only close ones (2000, 2016, 2024), he is at best 2 for 3, at worst 1 for 3 (depending on how you interpret the popular vote vs. electoral college wins). Not that impressive.

sycasey said:

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GoOskie said:

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sycasey said:

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concordtom said:

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sycasey said:

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I never put much stock in Lichtman or his keys, and one silver lining of this election is that it can finally bury his "method" once and for all.

---

How many books did he say he had published?? He got more notoriety off that 10 for 10 streak than all his books.

---

The 10 of 10 streak was already pretty questionable. He predicted Gore would beat Bush in 2000, but when that didn't happen he claimed that his "keys" really only predicted the popular vote.

But then when he predicted Trump would beat Hillary in 2016, no mention of how he really "lost" that prediction because of the popular vote. He was always trying to have it both ways.

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Do you have a source for this? I'm not trying to die on any hill for the professor, but he's always stated that his keys have nothing to do with the popular vote.

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House#Lichtman's_prediction_record_(1984%E2%80%93present)

Quote:

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Lichtman argues that in 2000, the keys predicted the winner of the popular vote, which Gore indeed won. In his 1988 book The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency, Lichtman defined his model as predicting the outcome of the popular vote.

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Hmm. Thanks for the link. I'll have to look into his work a bit more.

GoOskie said:

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sycasey said:

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concordtom said:

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sycasey said:

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I never put much stock in Lichtman or his keys, and one silver lining of this election is that it can finally bury his "method" once and for all.

---

How many books did he say he had published?? He got more notoriety off that 10 for 10 streak than all his books.

---

The 10 of 10 streak was already pretty questionable. He predicted Gore would beat Bush in 2000, but when that didn't happen he claimed that his "keys" really only predicted the popular vote.

But then when he predicted Trump would beat Hillary in 2016, no mention of how he really "lost" that prediction because of the popular vote. He was always trying to have it both ways.

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Do you have a source for this? I'm not trying to die on any hill for the professor, but he's always stated that his keys have nothing to do with the popular vote.

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In the video he says it himself: I would say I'm really 10-10 not 9-10...

sycasey said:

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concordtom said:

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sycasey said:

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I never put much stock in Lichtman or his keys, and one silver lining of this election is that it can finally bury his "method" once and for all.

---

How many books did he say he had published?? He got more notoriety off that 10 for 10 streak than all his books.

---

The 10 of 10 streak was already pretty questionable. He predicted Gore would beat Bush in 2000, but when that didn't happen he claimed that his "keys" really only predicted the popular vote.

But then when he predicted Trump would beat Hillary in 2016, no mention of how he really "lost" that prediction because of the popular vote. He was always trying to have it both ways.

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Ha!
Thx for sharing. I didn't know that.
Totally fits, though. I mean, I think I would be embarrassed to continually show up advertising that I KNOW who is going to win because, well, look at my secret formula! Pfft. Ha.

GoOskie said:

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Cal88 said:

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Ironically, Lichtman's 13 keys still held up in this election, the problem was his political bias in assessing them. For example, he has "strong long-term economy" and "major foreign or military success" as true:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House#Lichtman's_prediction_record_(1984%E2%80%93present)

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strong long-term economy is true

major foreign or military success. He seemed to waffle on this one quite a bit.

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Perhaps Litman has missed the boat on the economic issue because he failed to take into account the possibility that a crazy man would be able to convince the nation that a really good economy was not good actually. That is a sort of brainwashing we have not seen before and which he could not have included in his model.

NVBear78 said:

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concordtom said:

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GoOskie said:

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Cal88 said:

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Ironically, Lichtman's 13 keys still held up in this election, the problem was his political bias in assessing them. For example, he has "strong long-term economy" and "major foreign or military success" as true:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House#Lichtman's_prediction_record_(1984%E2%80%93present)

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strong long-term economy is true

major foreign or military success. He seemed to waffle on this one quite a bit.

---

Perhaps Litman has missed the boat on the economic issue because he failed to take into account the possibility that a crazy man would be able to convince the nation that a really good economy was not good actually. That is a sort of brainwashing we have not seen before and which he could not have included in his model.

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A "really good economy" for who? Certainly not for the average person or for young people seeking jobs. It helps to get information from someplace other than "the view" or MSNBC. Try the grocery store or the gas pump.

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If only those garbage people weren't so stupid, they'd be able to see how great things are for them. Truly amazing how many elitists are so certain they know what's best for the little people.

The 2016 election showed how out of touch the coastal elites are. And to be clear, that applies to elites in both parties. Both the republican and democrat establishment never saw Trump coming - I put myself in that category as I thought Trump had no chance of winning in 2016.

The interesting thing is how did the establishment folks and coastal elites react to 2016? Did they recognize their bubble and adjust their thinking? Did they seek to understand why a populate message was resonating in so many places? Or did they double down and insist that Trump and his supporters are stupid/bad/evil?

NVBear78 said:

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concordtom said:

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GoOskie said:

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Cal88 said:

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Ironically, Lichtman's 13 keys still held up in this election, the problem was his political bias in assessing them. For example, he has "strong long-term economy" and "major foreign or military success" as true:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House#Lichtman's_prediction_record_(1984%E2%80%93present)

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strong long-term economy is true

major foreign or military success. He seemed to waffle on this one quite a bit.

---

Perhaps Litman has missed the boat on the economic issue because he failed to take into account the possibility that a crazy man would be able to convince the nation that a really good economy was not good actually. That is a sort of brainwashing we have not seen before and which he could not have included in his model.

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A "really good economy" for who? Certainly not for the average person or for young people seeking jobs. It helps to get information from someplace other than "the view" or MSNBC. Try the grocery store or the gas pump.

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Thx, but I might suggest Fred as a good source. I passed my series 7 and 63 license exams with flying colors 30 years ago.

BearGoggles said:

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NVBear78 said:

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concordtom said:

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GoOskie said:

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Cal88 said:

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Ironically, Lichtman's 13 keys still held up in this election, the problem was his political bias in assessing them. For example, he has "strong long-term economy" and "major foreign or military success" as true:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House#Lichtman's_prediction_record_(1984%E2%80%93present)

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strong long-term economy is true

major foreign or military success. He seemed to waffle on this one quite a bit.

---

Perhaps Litman has missed the boat on the economic issue because he failed to take into account the possibility that a crazy man would be able to convince the nation that a really good economy was not good actually. That is a sort of brainwashing we have not seen before and which he could not have included in his model.

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A "really good economy" for who? Certainly not for the average person or for young people seeking jobs. It helps to get information from someplace other than "the view" or MSNBC. Try the grocery store or the gas pump.

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If only those garbage people weren't so stupid, they'd be able to see how great things are for them.

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Lots to comment on here. Starting with this.
How great things are is actually a matter of perspective. I have my theories, stated on these pages before.

If you talked to any of your long deceased ancestors, invited them to a day in 2024, they'd be incredibly thrilled.
You have both indoor heating AND plumbing? Shocking!
You have a "car" that takes you wherever you want to go? And it has its own hvac system? Incredible!
What is this global communication device in your pocket?
Look at all the fresh fruits and vegetables in your local grocery store. (I remember shopping in DC in 1982, as recent as the 80's, produce quality stank compared to California's. But now the distribution situation is much better.)
I could direct your attention to Fred's long term charts of inflation, interest rates, unemployment rate, or any broad market stock index…. It's all very very handsome.
Enjoy your visit with your ancestors. Ask them about war and disease, their daily workload of chores or labor, and their standard of living.

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Truly amazing how many elitists are so certain they know what's best for the little people.

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I know, but someone's got to do it, right?


Actually, in seriousness, this is what MAGA leaders think, and we will soon see what reign of terror they bring down upon us.

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The 2016 election showed how out of touch the coastal elites are. And to be clear, that applies to elites in both parties. Both the republican and democrat establishment never saw Trump coming - I put myself in that category as I thought Trump had no chance of winning in 2016.

The interesting thing is how did the establishment folks and coastal elites react to 2016? Did they recognize their bubble and adjust their thinking? Did they seek to understand why a populate message was resonating in so many places? Or did they double down and insist that Trump and his supporters are stupid/bad/evil?

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And just what was that message??
I'll set my arrogance aside for a moment and say I never got it!