Well, looks like the polls of a tied race were pretty much right! No significant over performance by either side (and yes, my not-so-confident prediction of such was wrong.
Official BearInsider Election Day Thread
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Last: 53 min ago by bear2034
Cal88 said:dimitrig said:Cal88 said:
Looks like Trump has won Florida.
Kamala needs to do really well in the rust belt to pull this off.
Remember when Florida was a swing state?
What happened demographically?
Trump doing a lot better with Latinos across the board, also gaining with Blacks, and ironically losing with some White demographics (Boomers, suburban).
Trump also had less white male voters in 2020 compared to 2016.
Plan C will involve Jamie Raskin and the certification of the election.bearister said:
I say if Harris loses, Biden declares the Election fraudulent and Harris refuses to certify the Election.
bear2034 said:Cal88 said:dimitrig said:Cal88 said:
Looks like Trump has won Florida.
Kamala needs to do really well in the rust belt to pull this off.
Remember when Florida was a swing state?
What happened demographically?
Trump doing a lot better with Latinos across the board, also gaining with Blacks, and ironically losing with some White demographics (Boomers, suburban).
Trump also had less white male voters in 2020 compared to 2016.
Kamala is ahead in VA because of the White suburbans in the north of the state.
Missed that. I was responding to you're earlier post when you said he wasn't.dimitrig said:BearGoggles said:It weird that to you this is all about Harris underperforming and not about Trump performing better. Trump has done massively better with Latinos, black men, and even suburban women (losing by less). BIden/Harris policies are unpopular.dimitrig said:tequila4kapp said:
We have a long way to go
Not really.
Trump is doing what he needs to do to win.
Harris +3 in Scranton. Joe was +8. She hasn't overperformed anywhere really. She doesn't need to but if Trump overperforms everywhere, like he seems to be doing, he will be President.
The exit polls are not good with a majority of first time voters saying they voted for Trump which is quite surprising.
In the last election, it was the absentee ballots counted later that changed the early results and they were predicted to be (and were) largely Democrat.
Does anyone know how those were tabulated this time?
In terms of absentee/mail in ballots, there is a variation. In some states, those are counted ahead of time/first. in others last. But the biggest difference is that in 2020, the dems had a MASSIVE MASSIVE MASSIVE advantage in the number of mail in votes, mostly because Trump stupidly told his voters not to use them.
This time, the republicans also went all in on collecting mail in votes, particularly in Penn, Arizona and Nevada. There won't be the same mail in surge for dems, which is why the NY Times and others will make a call if the margin remains wide for Trump.
I said right in my post that Trump is overperforming
Latino men are breaking for Trump by a 10-point margin (54-44), according to the NBC News Exit Poll. In 2020, Biden won them by a 23-point margin (59-36).
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) November 6, 2024
Harris is up 25 points with Latino women, down from Biden’s 39-point advantage in 2020.
👉🏻 https://t.co/0hxqFmBc4U pic.twitter.com/b2mvaIFMTu
tequila4kapp said:yes, but the blue wall is still there for Harrisdimitrig said:tequila4kapp said:
We have a long way to go
Not really.
Trump is doing what he needs to do to win.
Harris +3 in Scranton. Joe was +8. She hasn't overperformed anywhere really. She doesn't need to but if Trump overperforms everywhere, like he seems to be doing, he will be President.
The exit polls are not good with a majority of first time voters saying they voted for Trump which is quite surprising.
In the last election, it was the absentee ballots counted later that changed the early results and they were predicted to be (and were) largely Democrat.
Does anyone know how those were tabulated this time?
More like thin blue line
My own prediction is she would win MI, WI, PA, and MN but lose every other so-called swing state
That can still happen.
However, it would seem more promising if she had cut into Trump's margins in red states. She did not and Trump won some Dem strongholds in red states (like Miami). That's not a good trend. She is also underperforming in college towns she needed to be killing it.
Her campaign has absolutely no margin now. If she wins it will be by the same razor thin margins Trump won in 2016.
Fox calls Ohio Senate seat for Moreno (R) over incumbent Brown. R's definitely take back Senate, will be at at least 52
Cal88 said:
Can someone talk Tom and SBGold off the ledge?
SB Gold no posts since 4:12 PM?
Has Tom left for Portugal?
bear2034 said:Plan C will involve Jamie Raskin and the certification of the election.bearister said:
I say if Harris loses, Biden declares the Election fraudulent and Harris refuses to certify the Election.
The margin is too wide this time around.
Nate Silver blamed voter fatigue from SBGold spamming the internet for Kamala underperforming.
From CNN:
Look in Pennsylvania now, there are 23 counties where 95%+ of the vote is in. Trump needs to do 1.2 points better than last time around to win statewide. In the counties where 95% of the vote is in, he's doing 2.5 points better than his 2020 total.
You win the internet tonight. LMAO.Cal88 said:bear2034 said:Plan C will involve Jamie Raskin and the certification of the election.bearister said:
I say if Harris loses, Biden declares the Election fraudulent and Harris refuses to certify the Election.
The margin is too wide this time around.
Nate Silver blamed voter fatigue from SBGold spamming the internet for Kamala underperforming.
I am going out on a limb and projecting Harris wins California.
Call me Nostradamus
I am not surprised Republicans are making gains but I am surprised so many millions of Americans are willing to vote for Trump.
As a Japanese CEO said regarding a potential Trump victory:
Why do you want to watch a rerun of a bad show?
dimitrig said:
I am not surprised Republicans are making gains but I am surprised so many millions of Americans are willing to vote for Trump.
As a Japanese CEO said regarding a potential Trump victory:
Why do you want to watch a rerun of a bad show?
2020 was safe normal guy > mean tweets
2024 may be ****ty policies / bad 4 years < unlikeable president
BOMBSHELL: @realDonaldTrump is +36 among Hispanics in Michigan since the 2020 election.
— Steve Guest (@SteveGuest) November 6, 2024
Trump is winning the Latino vote in Michigan with 60% of the votes vs. Kamala with just 35% of the votes. pic.twitter.com/8oxigJWjAZ
Recent assessment from the NYT
Shifts from 2020:
Shifts from 2020:
FOX: Harris campaign no longer speaking to media
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 6, 2024
Scheming?
tequila4kapp said:dimitrig said:
I am not surprised Republicans are making gains but I am surprised so many millions of Americans are willing to vote for Trump.
As a Japanese CEO said regarding a potential Trump victory:
Why do you want to watch a rerun of a bad show?
2020 was safe normal guy > mean tweets
2024 may be ****ty policies / bad 4 years < unlikeable president
It isn't that Trump is unlikeable. He is dangerous.
He can't tell fact from fiction. He has no respect for the institutions in this country. He gives power to anyone who kisses his ass no matter the consequences. He is a terrible judge of character. He admires America's enemies.
Does Elon Musk get to do anything he wants now?
I am glad I live in California both because I am more insulated from his crap and also because I can't imagine living in a place surrounded by people who think it is a good idea to vote a twice-impeached criminal octogenarian into the highest office in the land AFTER witnessing what happened the FIRST TIME!
🚨JUST IN: FOX News reporting that AP Votecast projects Trump winning a STAGGERING 23% of Black Men nationwide.
— Western Lensman (@WesternLensman) November 6, 2024
WATTERS: “A defeat for the mainstream media who's just destroyed Donald Trump as a racist for all these years."
WOW. pic.twitter.com/wve6T2JSER
CNN reports they sent out a memo basically saying "All is well, it was always going to be tight, see you tomorrow"bear2034 said:FOX: Harris campaign no longer speaking to media
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 6, 2024
Scheming?
Yes, we understand that's what many on the board believe. I'm saying in a national election where most people aren't political junkies like us on this thread it more or less comes down to my characterizationdimitrig said:
It isn't that Trump is unlikeable. He is dangerous.
***
I can't imagine living in a place surrounded by people who think it is a good idea to vote a twice-impeached criminal octogenarian into the highest office in the land.
NC called for Trump
People will get what they vote for.
sycasey said:
People will get what they vote for.
Joe Biden 🔥 🔥 pic.twitter.com/XkSv0aPt4E
— The Rabbit Hole (@TheRabbitHole84) November 6, 2024
tequila4kapp said:Yes, we understand that's what many on the board believe. I'm saying in a national election where most people aren't political junkies like us on this thread it more or less comes down to my characterizationdimitrig said:
It isn't that Trump is unlikeable. He is dangerous.
***
I can't imagine living in a place surrounded by people who think it is a good idea to vote a twice-impeached criminal octogenarian into the highest office in the land.
Did they see what he did to Roe v. Wade?
Did they see January 6th?
Aren't they tired of him being part of every news cycle for the last four years? Do people really want to see MORE of him? Why isn't there any Trump fatigue? I can't wait until he dies and I hope it is soon so that we never have to hear about him again.
We know what Trump did in office. Why not see what someone else (R or D) has to offer?
What about Trump appeals to low income uneducated white people and why are there so many of those people in America to begin with?
You are blind to to the fact (and it is a fact) that lots of people simply don't see it this way. Many people view Harris/Dems as the more dangerous and authoritarian threat.dimitrig said:tequila4kapp said:dimitrig said:
I am not surprised Republicans are making gains but I am surprised so many millions of Americans are willing to vote for Trump.
As a Japanese CEO said regarding a potential Trump victory:
Why do you want to watch a rerun of a bad show?
2020 was safe normal guy > mean tweets
2024 may be ****ty policies / bad 4 years < unlikeable president
It isn't that Trump is unlikeable. He is dangerous.
He can't tell fact from fiction. He has no respect for the institutions in this country. He gives power to anyone who kisses his ass no matter the consequences. He is a terrible judge of character. He admires America's enemies.
Does Elon Musk get to do anything he wants now?
I am glad I live in California both because I am more insulated from his crap and also because I can't imagine living in a place surrounded by people who think it is a good idea to vote a twice-impeached criminal octogenarian into the highest office in the land AFTER witnessing what happened the FIRST TIME!
Trump obeyed court orders (Biden/Harris did not - e.g., student loan caseds).
Trump did not attack the first amendment and seek to control/censor social media and de-platform political opponents (Biden/Harris did).
Trump did not prosecute HRC or for that matter, Hunter Biden or other dem politicians. The Biden DOJ and other Dem prosecutors have prosecuted Trump and lots of his team, often (not always) under the very thinnest and questionable grounds.
Harris and her crew covered for a clearly diminished Biden all while telling us he was fine.
Harris/Biden/Dems opened the border, often hiding their policies to import "asylum" seekers.
This is not a fulsome defense of Trump. He is in fact bad in many respects. It is to point out that you have no ability to see the other side's point of view. And in the end, because both candidates are awful, it comes down to voting for the candidate that has the policies you prefer. That is the reality. And on that front, Harris' policies are TERRIBLY unpopular and out of step.
You do live in the California bubble. It has broken your ability to understand how things work in other places.
With memories is 2020…at midnight EST Trump is up between 2.5 and 5 points in MI, GA, PA, WI
Here's my take: there's been kind of an anti-inbumbency wave across most of the liberal democracies in recent years and the Democrats this time just couldn't swim against that tide. Looked like it might happen because Trump is not a very popular figure, but not quite.dimitrig said:tequila4kapp said:Yes, we understand that's what many on the board believe. I'm saying in a national election where most people aren't political junkies like us on this thread it more or less comes down to my characterizationdimitrig said:
It isn't that Trump is unlikeable. He is dangerous.
***
I can't imagine living in a place surrounded by people who think it is a good idea to vote a twice-impeached criminal octogenarian into the highest office in the land.
Did they see what he did to Roe v. Wade?
Did they see January 6th?
Aren't they tired of him being part of every news cycle for the last four years? Do people really want to see MORE of him? Why isn't there any Trump fatigue? I can't wait until he dies and I hope it is soon so that we never have to hear about him again.
We know what Trump did in office. Why not see what someone else (R or D) has to offer?
What about Trump appeals to low income uneducated white people and why are there so many of those people in America to begin with?
I suspect Biden or another Dem nominee probably would have gotten caught in the same wave, short of some kind of extraordinarily charismatic guy like Obama.
Either side can still win, but here’s what turned out to be bullshit - a Kamala Harris landslide. I knew I shouldn’t have believed all the optimistic Democrats who were buried in their delusional bubble. Here’s a lesson Democrats will never learn - people hate the establishment!
— Cenk Uygur (@cenkuygur) November 6, 2024
No real word on the House.
Rs up in WI, MI, MT, PA Senate races; they may get to upwards of 55.
Rs up in WI, MI, MT, PA Senate races; they may get to upwards of 55.
In PA and WI they are likely to count the mail-in vote late (just like in 2020) which probably brings those margins down a bit. Maybe even saves some of the Senate candidates. Doesn't look like enough to overcome on the Presidential level though.
Yes, this is around the time ballot counting was stopped.tequila4kapp said:
With memories is 2020…at midnight EST Trump is up between 2.5 and 5 points in MI, GA, PA, WI
Dems are surprisingly still in okay shape for the House. Their candidates have been outrunning Kamala. Surprising amount of ticket-splitting.
sycasey said:Here's my take: there's been kind of an anti-inbumbency wave across most of the liberal democracies in recent years and the Democrats this time just couldn't swim against that tide. Looked like it might happen because Trump is not a very popular figure, but not quite.dimitrig said:tequila4kapp said:Yes, we understand that's what many on the board believe. I'm saying in a national election where most people aren't political junkies like us on this thread it more or less comes down to my characterizationdimitrig said:
It isn't that Trump is unlikeable. He is dangerous.
***
I can't imagine living in a place surrounded by people who think it is a good idea to vote a twice-impeached criminal octogenarian into the highest office in the land.
Did they see what he did to Roe v. Wade?
Did they see January 6th?
Aren't they tired of him being part of every news cycle for the last four years? Do people really want to see MORE of him? Why isn't there any Trump fatigue? I can't wait until he dies and I hope it is soon so that we never have to hear about him again.
We know what Trump did in office. Why not see what someone else (R or D) has to offer?
What about Trump appeals to low income uneducated white people and why are there so many of those people in America to begin with?
I suspect Biden or another Dem nominee probably would have gotten caught in the same wave, short of some kind of extraordinarily charismatic guy like Obama.
Totally. Agree. Country needs to change.
Donald Trump ain't going to be the one to drive change people want. He wants to take us backwards.
Maybe give the youngish woman a chance?
Thing is… like I said before… Kamala is too associated with Biden. When given a chance to say what she would do differently she said she couldn't think of a thing. That killed her campaign. Killed it.
That was her chance to talk about how she had all these great ideas to lower inflation and deal with illegal immigration and so on. The things people want the government to help with.
And on Israel/Gaza, too, she was too wishy washy and that has always been her problem.
She was my Senator here in California and I can't remember anything she did of note. No Feinstein for sure. I am not even really sure why Biden chose her as his VP. To appeal to black voters?
I think she is a lot more capable than she is given credit for but the criticism that she won't take a stance on complex issues is valid. Either you support political amnesty for everyone requesting it or you don't. You support Israel as a great ally of the US or you don't. She is so afraid to offend any constituents but never really figured out who hers were. A proper primary campaign would have helped refine her messaging on that regard.
Trump never built that wall. Mexico certainly didn't pay for it. It didn't matter. It was a powerful metaphor for a vision (a frightening one I might add) Trump had.
And am I the only one who feels that Trump has been in office for the last four years sort of directing his capos from prison? Sometimes I wondered where the hell our actual President (or Vice President - to be fair not her role) was to keep him in line. Biden's administration seemed mostly ineffectual like the Steward of Gondor.
We need a real leader. 80 year old Trump lining his pockets and paying retribution for personal slights ain't it.
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