China has started retaliating for the sanctions imposed on its import of critical technology like chip-producing machinery from ASML, restricting the export of minerals including galium, germanium and antimony.

This is a very good short summary:

Who is to blame ?

Anarchistbear said:

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China in the US are joined at the hip. Apple exemplifies this and will lobby and win concessions from Trump as will others. Business wooo carry the day both sides

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How much will Trump expect to be paid for said concessions?




I mean, That's why he's in this game.
As example, he previously was against TikTok, but now clearly sees an opening to extract some more "concessions".

It's so obvious it's laughable. Maybe he can parlay Tiktok into a $2B investment fund for Don Jr, adjusting Apple related tariffs into a $2B investment fund for Eric.

What will Tiffany and Baron get?

Quote:

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Two weeks before the Supreme Court is set to hear oral arguments over TikTok's future, President-elect Donald Trump has asked the justices to delay a Jan. 19 deadline for the app to be sold to a new owner or face a ban in the U.S.

An amicus brief filed by Trump's nominee to be solicitor general, John Sauer, is asking the court to grant a stay delaying the deadline so that the incoming president can work out a "negotiated resolution" that would save the app.


The filing casts Trump as someone who "alone possesses the consummate dealmaking expertise, the electoral mandate, and the political will to negotiate a resolution to save the platform while addressing the national security concerns expressed by the Government."

Trump originally tried to ban TikTok in his first term, but has since reversed course, vowing during the 2024 presidential campaign to "save" the app.

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Oh, gee. I wonder why he's flipped his stance on TikTok.
Well, hell, it's written right there in the briefing! "Dealmaking"!
Pfft. He wants to wet his beak.
"Supreme Court, make me the new arbiter here. Voters made me the arbiter on everything from 2025-2028, but that's not enough, gimme the old 2024 stuff, too. I'm sure I can make some money off that."

Six months after leaving the White House, Jared Kushner secured a $2 billion investment from a fund led by the Saudi crown prince, a close ally during the Trump administration, despite objections from the fund’s advisers about the merits of the deal. https://t.co/FDlmrzvYdw pic.twitter.com/OHfyPVHsHN

— The New York Times (@nytimes) April 10, 2022

In actuality, Saudi concerns were Pre negotiated when the arms sale deal went through, and when the Kashoggi embassy assassination investigation was quieted down.

Some data points from the video:

-China's share of world production was 6% in 2000, rising to 50% in 2030.

-China's trade surplus with the US is $340 billion.

-Share of exports to the US as percentage of China's GDP: 8% in 2007, 2.3% in 2024.

Cal88 said:

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China has started retaliating for the sanctions imposed on its import of critical technology like chip-producing machinery from ASML, restricting the export of minerals including galium, germanium and antimony.

This is a very good short summary:

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Sounds like a great time to get ourselves from China then.

Cal88 said:

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China has started retaliating for the sanctions imposed on its import of critical technology like chip-producing machinery from ASML, restricting the export of minerals including galium, germanium and antimony.

This is a very good short summary:

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My hunch:
He's been spending years trying to market Chinese manufactured stuff available for export, and then discovers that if he provides these "dispatches" he can get a bunch more eyeballs on his biz.

Great strategy.

Unless Apple receives an exemption, they will obviously get clobbered by a Trump tariff on China.

There goes that 37% gross profit margin.

DiabloWags said:

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Unless Apple receives an exemption, they will obviously get clobbered by a Trump tariff on China.

There goes that 37% gross profit margin.

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Samsung managed to outsource primarily to India and Vietnam, unlike Apple who wasn't as successful "friendshoring" in those countries. Probably because the Koreans haven't given up on production altogether and still have large factories at home.

concordtom said:

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Cal88 said:

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China has started retaliating for the sanctions imposed on its import of critical technology like chip-producing machinery from ASML, restricting the export of minerals including galium, germanium and antimony.

This is a very good short summary:

---

My hunch:
He's been spending years trying to market Chinese manufactured stuff available for export, and then discovers that if he provides these "dispatches" he can get a bunch more eyeballs on his biz.

Great strategy.

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He hasn't plugged his business to date, but he only started vlogging last year. He is closing in on 100K subs, putting out short/dense high-quality content at a high rate. He is based in Qingdao in northern China (aka Tsingtao, the former German concession, famous abroad for its beer brand) and works at a trailer manufacturer there, not sure if he's part owner of that business. He's an Army vet and a former investment banker/analyst.

His last video is pretty informative on the car market, apparently 75% of US consumers can't afford a new car. Domestic auto makers have focused on the higher end market which is now eroding, while the Chinese are focusing on the lower and mid-priced markets, which is growing very fast worldwide.

I also learned that Mexico was the 2nd largest auto exporter in the world behind Japan (gracias NAFTA), until recently when China overtook both countries.

Yes
I'm one of those subs.
He does a great job.

My comment about him was rooted in the following.
He prepares his talks well. Points made are concise, well organized, and supported by articles. He's not just talking off the top of his head. I imagine he has queues set up to the side of the lens.

So, then, why all the prep time?
Usually people have an incentive as motive. So, I was deducing that it's helping his business.
Yes, I looked it up very briefly.

Not a lot more analysis on my part than that.

If you like his takes, then did you watch the Ray Dalio "changing world order" presentation I posted elsewhere?
Perhaps it was in my "say goodbye to the dollar" thread.

Guys like Diablo see the status quo as invincible. Nothing lasts forever. Not even Rome.




I had an uncle tell me, perhaps it was late 90's, that he had moved a large portion of his portfolio into cash. Then he said, everyone (whether bull or bear) is right, it's merely just a matter of timing.

The long term view says he missed out on all those gains of 98 and 99. Then March 2000 came. Then he missed the subsequent run up to 2007. Then the next big fall.
And it goes on.

If you back out to Ray Dalio scale, those are bumps in the bigger theme. This Inside China fellow is speaking to that.
Dalio says usually the shift from one leader to another happens at a point of large conflict, and up to that point the old power makes moves to cling and prolong.

Our military interventions are representative, as is the printing of currency, as everyone does.

There is no currency backed by anything other than the promise of the government to repay. All are "fiat".
What will replace if one or multiple break? Crypto? Good? The strongest remaining alternative?

All I know is that $35T is an insane amount which we will never repay. Something's gotta give.

Meanwhile, China is winning the production game. US is good for entertainment and, as one commenter said, "ambulance chasers". But there's no real value in that. It's like Charlie Sheen va Martin Sheen in Wall Street. One lived high on the hog off the production of others. The other produced. Yes, the world needs efficient capital markets, but after a point where's the real value?

concordtom said:

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If you like his takes, then did you watch the Ray Dalio "changing world order" presentation I posted elsewhere?
Perhaps it was in my "say goodbye to the dollar" thread.

Guys like Diablo see the status quo as invincible. Nothing lasts forever. Not even Rome.




I had an uncle tell me, perhaps it was late 90's, that he had moved a large portion of his portfolio into cash. Then he said, everyone (whether bull or bear) is right, it's merely just a matter of timing.

The long term view says he missed out on all those gains of 98 and 99. Then March 2000 came. Then he missed the subsequent run up to 2007. Then the next big fall.
And it goes on.

If you back out to Ray Dalio scale, those are bumps in the bigger theme. This Inside China fellow is speaking to that.
Dalio says usually the shift from one leader to another happens at a point of large conflict, and up to that point the old power makes moves to cling and prolong.

Our military interventions are representative, as is the printing of currency, as everyone does.

There is no currency backed by anything other than the promise of the government to repay. All are "fiat".
What will replace if one or multiple break? Crypto? Good? The strongest remaining alternative?

All I know is that $35T is an insane amount which we will never repay. Something's gotta give.

Meanwhile, China is winning the production game. US is good for entertainment and, as one commenter said, "ambulance chasers". But there's no real value in that. It's like Charlie Sheen va Martin Sheen in Wall Street. One lived high on the hog off the production of others. The other produced. Yes, the world needs efficient capital markets, but after a point where's the real value?

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Good points, I think Dalio's take on fiat currencies/economic empires is well taken. There is little question in my mind that China is in the process of eclipsing the American empire. As many historians and analysts have pointed out, their decline in the past two centuries was a historical aberration. They are 4 times as large, have four millennia of civilization and are run by shrewd and efficient leaders.

What's less clear is the timing, circumstances and mechanisms by which that change is going to occur, we're in a classic Thucydides Trap transition.

If war is a requirement for one reserve currency to be replaced with another then how would that take place in world where both the U.S. and China possess the ultimate weapon, nuclear weapons?

Maybe the U.S. loses dominance without any shots fired. Maybe the U.S. becomes incorporated into a new world order where the dominant force isn't a single nation state but rather, a conglomeration of nation states using a new global reserve currency, a digital currency.

#Bitcoin is the next world reserve currency, whether you like it or not. pic.twitter.com/Vod7j1CJyz

— Vivek⚡️ (@Vivek4real_) May 6, 2024

Why would a winner agree to a new third currency they can't control?

Why would a dethroned power agree to anything else?

The moment the US dollar is threatened by crypto is the moment it gets outlawed. Unless the regnant authority is thinking about their own balance sheet rather than the nation's.

bear2034 said:

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If war is a requirement for one reserve currency to be replaced with another then how would that take place in world where both the U.S. and China possess the ultimate weapon, nuclear weapons?

Maybe the U.S. loses dominance without any shots fired. Maybe the U.S. becomes incorporated into a new world order where the dominant force isn't a single nation state but rather, a conglomeration of nation states using a new global reserve currency, a digital currency.

#Bitcoin is the next world reserve currency, whether you like it or not. pic.twitter.com/Vod7j1CJyz

— Vivek⚡️ (@Vivek4real_) May 6, 2024

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War is not required for the replacement to happen, it's more that the current power cycles through its stages and experiences economic stagnation while the upstart new power surges. The period carries a high risk of war because the old power wants to prevent the rising power of becoming the leading economy by military means while it still can, as there is a time lag between economic/industrial rise and military prowess. Greek historian Thucydides documented this phenomenon with the rise of Athens threatening Sparta's hegemony over the Mediterranean realm, that was the classic case of that trap.

Analysis of the more recent historical cases of Thucydides traps (some of the cases are a bit strained IMO):



Also the Chinese are going to roll out their own CBDC. Perhaps governments have been tolerating bitcoin because it can be seen as a pilot program that will pave the way to customer adoption of their central bank-issued digital currencies (CBDCs).