China has started retaliating for the sanctions imposed on its import of critical technology like chip-producing machinery from ASML, restricting the export of minerals including galium, germanium and antimony.

This is a very good short summary:

Who is to blame ?

Anarchistbear said:

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China in the US are joined at the hip. Apple exemplifies this and will lobby and win concessions from Trump as will others. Business wooo carry the day both sides

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How much will Trump expect to be paid for said concessions?




I mean, That's why he's in this game.
As example, he previously was against TikTok, but now clearly sees an opening to extract some more "concessions".

It's so obvious it's laughable. Maybe he can parlay Tiktok into a $2B investment fund for Don Jr, adjusting Apple related tariffs into a $2B investment fund for Eric.

What will Tiffany and Baron get?

Quote:

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Two weeks before the Supreme Court is set to hear oral arguments over TikTok's future, President-elect Donald Trump has asked the justices to delay a Jan. 19 deadline for the app to be sold to a new owner or face a ban in the U.S.

An amicus brief filed by Trump's nominee to be solicitor general, John Sauer, is asking the court to grant a stay delaying the deadline so that the incoming president can work out a "negotiated resolution" that would save the app.


The filing casts Trump as someone who "alone possesses the consummate dealmaking expertise, the electoral mandate, and the political will to negotiate a resolution to save the platform while addressing the national security concerns expressed by the Government."

Trump originally tried to ban TikTok in his first term, but has since reversed course, vowing during the 2024 presidential campaign to "save" the app.

---

Oh, gee. I wonder why he's flipped his stance on TikTok.
Well, hell, it's written right there in the briefing! "Dealmaking"!
Pfft. He wants to wet his beak.
"Supreme Court, make me the new arbiter here. Voters made me the arbiter on everything from 2025-2028, but that's not enough, gimme the old 2024 stuff, too. I'm sure I can make some money off that."

Six months after leaving the White House, Jared Kushner secured a $2 billion investment from a fund led by the Saudi crown prince, a close ally during the Trump administration, despite objections from the fund’s advisers about the merits of the deal. https://t.co/FDlmrzvYdw pic.twitter.com/OHfyPVHsHN

— The New York Times (@nytimes) April 10, 2022

In actuality, Saudi concerns were Pre negotiated when the arms sale deal went through, and when the Kashoggi embassy assassination investigation was quieted down.

Some data points from the video:

-China's share of world production was 6% in 2000, rising to 50% in 2030.

-China's trade surplus with the US is $340 billion.

-Share of exports to the US as percentage of China's GDP: 8% in 2007, 2.3% in 2024.

Cal88 said:

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China has started retaliating for the sanctions imposed on its import of critical technology like chip-producing machinery from ASML, restricting the export of minerals including galium, germanium and antimony.

This is a very good short summary:

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Sounds like a great time to get ourselves from China then.

Cal88 said:

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China has started retaliating for the sanctions imposed on its import of critical technology like chip-producing machinery from ASML, restricting the export of minerals including galium, germanium and antimony.

This is a very good short summary:

---

My hunch:
He's been spending years trying to market Chinese manufactured stuff available for export, and then discovers that if he provides these "dispatches" he can get a bunch more eyeballs on his biz.

Great strategy.

Unless Apple receives an exemption, they will obviously get clobbered by a Trump tariff on China.

There goes that 37% gross profit margin.

DiabloWags said:

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Unless Apple receives an exemption, they will obviously get clobbered by a Trump tariff on China.

There goes that 37% gross profit margin.

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Samsung managed to outsource primarily to India and Vietnam, unlike Apple who wasn't as successful "friendshoring" in those countries. Probably because the Koreans haven't given up on production altogether and still have large factories at home.

concordtom said:

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Cal88 said:

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China has started retaliating for the sanctions imposed on its import of critical technology like chip-producing machinery from ASML, restricting the export of minerals including galium, germanium and antimony.

This is a very good short summary:

---

My hunch:
He's been spending years trying to market Chinese manufactured stuff available for export, and then discovers that if he provides these "dispatches" he can get a bunch more eyeballs on his biz.

Great strategy.

---

He hasn't plugged his business to date, but he only started vlogging last year. He is closing in on 100K subs, putting out short/dense high-quality content at a high rate. He is based in Qingdao in northern China (aka Tsingtao, the former German concession, famous abroad for its beer brand) and works at a trailer manufacturer there, not sure if he's part owner of that business. He's an Army vet and a former investment banker/analyst.

His last video is pretty informative on the car market, apparently 75% of US consumers can't afford a new car. Domestic auto makers have focused on the higher end market which is now eroding, while the Chinese are focusing on the lower and mid-priced markets, which is growing very fast worldwide.

I also learned that Mexico was the 2nd largest auto exporter in the world behind Japan (gracias NAFTA), until recently when China overtook both countries.

Yes
I'm one of those subs.
He does a great job.

My comment about him was rooted in the following.
He prepares his talks well. Points made are concise, well organized, and supported by articles. He's not just talking off the top of his head. I imagine he has queues set up to the side of the lens.

So, then, why all the prep time?
Usually people have an incentive as motive. So, I was deducing that it's helping his business.
Yes, I looked it up very briefly.

Not a lot more analysis on my part than that.

If you like his takes, then did you watch the Ray Dalio "changing world order" presentation I posted elsewhere?
Perhaps it was in my "say goodbye to the dollar" thread.

Guys like Diablo see the status quo as invincible. Nothing lasts forever. Not even Rome.




I had an uncle tell me, perhaps it was late 90's, that he had moved a large portion of his portfolio into cash. Then he said, everyone (whether bull or bear) is right, it's merely just a matter of timing.

The long term view says he missed out on all those gains of 98 and 99. Then March 2000 came. Then he missed the subsequent run up to 2007. Then the next big fall.
And it goes on.

If you back out to Ray Dalio scale, those are bumps in the bigger theme. This Inside China fellow is speaking to that.
Dalio says usually the shift from one leader to another happens at a point of large conflict, and up to that point the old power makes moves to cling and prolong.

Our military interventions are representative, as is the printing of currency, as everyone does.

There is no currency backed by anything other than the promise of the government to repay. All are "fiat".
What will replace if one or multiple break? Crypto? Good? The strongest remaining alternative?

All I know is that $35T is an insane amount which we will never repay. Something's gotta give.

Meanwhile, China is winning the production game. US is good for entertainment and, as one commenter said, "ambulance chasers". But there's no real value in that. It's like Charlie Sheen va Martin Sheen in Wall Street. One lived high on the hog off the production of others. The other produced. Yes, the world needs efficient capital markets, but after a point where's the real value?

concordtom said:

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If you like his takes, then did you watch the Ray Dalio "changing world order" presentation I posted elsewhere?
Perhaps it was in my "say goodbye to the dollar" thread.

Guys like Diablo see the status quo as invincible. Nothing lasts forever. Not even Rome.




I had an uncle tell me, perhaps it was late 90's, that he had moved a large portion of his portfolio into cash. Then he said, everyone (whether bull or bear) is right, it's merely just a matter of timing.

The long term view says he missed out on all those gains of 98 and 99. Then March 2000 came. Then he missed the subsequent run up to 2007. Then the next big fall.
And it goes on.

If you back out to Ray Dalio scale, those are bumps in the bigger theme. This Inside China fellow is speaking to that.
Dalio says usually the shift from one leader to another happens at a point of large conflict, and up to that point the old power makes moves to cling and prolong.

Our military interventions are representative, as is the printing of currency, as everyone does.

There is no currency backed by anything other than the promise of the government to repay. All are "fiat".
What will replace if one or multiple break? Crypto? Good? The strongest remaining alternative?

All I know is that $35T is an insane amount which we will never repay. Something's gotta give.

Meanwhile, China is winning the production game. US is good for entertainment and, as one commenter said, "ambulance chasers". But there's no real value in that. It's like Charlie Sheen va Martin Sheen in Wall Street. One lived high on the hog off the production of others. The other produced. Yes, the world needs efficient capital markets, but after a point where's the real value?

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Good points, I think Dalio's take on fiat currencies/economic empires is well taken. There is little question in my mind that China is in the process of eclipsing the American empire. As many historians and analysts have pointed out, their decline in the past two centuries was a historical aberration. They are 4 times as large, have four millennia of civilization and are run by shrewd and efficient leaders.

What's less clear is the timing, circumstances and mechanisms by which that change is going to occur, we're in a classic Thucydides Trap transition.

If war is a requirement for one reserve currency to be replaced with another then how would that take place in world where both the U.S. and China possess the ultimate weapon, nuclear weapons?

Maybe the U.S. loses dominance without any shots fired. Maybe the U.S. becomes incorporated into a new world order where the dominant force isn't a single nation state but rather, a conglomeration of nation states using a new global reserve currency, a digital currency.

#Bitcoin is the next world reserve currency, whether you like it or not. pic.twitter.com/Vod7j1CJyz

— Vivek⚡️ (@Vivek4real_) May 6, 2024

Why would a winner agree to a new third currency they can't control?

Why would a dethroned power agree to anything else?

The moment the US dollar is threatened by crypto is the moment it gets outlawed. Unless the regnant authority is thinking about their own balance sheet rather than the nation's.

bear2034 said:

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If war is a requirement for one reserve currency to be replaced with another then how would that take place in world where both the U.S. and China possess the ultimate weapon, nuclear weapons?

Maybe the U.S. loses dominance without any shots fired. Maybe the U.S. becomes incorporated into a new world order where the dominant force isn't a single nation state but rather, a conglomeration of nation states using a new global reserve currency, a digital currency.

#Bitcoin is the next world reserve currency, whether you like it or not. pic.twitter.com/Vod7j1CJyz

— Vivek⚡️ (@Vivek4real_) May 6, 2024

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War is not required for the replacement to happen, it's more that the current power cycles through its stages and experiences economic stagnation while the upstart new power surges. The period carries a high risk of war because the old power wants to prevent the rising power of becoming the leading economy by military means while it still can, as there is a time lag between economic/industrial rise and military prowess. Greek historian Thucydides documented this phenomenon with the rise of Athens threatening Sparta's hegemony over the Mediterranean realm, that was the classic case of that trap.

Analysis of the more recent historical cases of Thucydides traps (some of the cases are a bit strained IMO):



Also the Chinese are going to roll out their own CBDC. Perhaps governments have been tolerating bitcoin because it can be seen as a pilot program that will pave the way to customer adoption of their central bank-issued digital currencies (CBDCs).

What happens if the hard drive where your digital currency is stolen, the server farm is bombed?

What if country A blows up all the server farms or disrupts the connection lines?

Good luck with that.

Bitcoin and other crypto currencies are stored on the blockchain located on the internet where it copies and spreads the code across the network. As long as the internet is running somewhere in the world, the coins are safe.

bear2034 said:

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Bitcoin and other crypto currencies are stored on the blockchain located on the internet where it copies and spreads the code across the network. As long as the internet is running somewhere in the world, the coins are safe.

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Should be OK until the Sun hits us with the next Carrington Event.

Some people will blue star anything.

movielover said:

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Chapman_is_Gone said:

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What are movielover's favorite movies released between 1989 and 1995?

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Cinema Paradiso (in Italian), Lean on Me, Bronx Tale, Dead Poets, Brother from Another Planet, Sex, Lies, and Videotape, Rudy, Schindler's List, Hoop Dreams, Once Were Warriors, The Game are good starting points.

To Watch: Hollywood Schuffle.

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You should stick to these kind of posts.
What did you like most about the game. Please provide your analysis of what you think the Director is trying to express to the audience.

I'll pass. I forgot Jungle Fever.

China kicking the West's butt

Jan 20
Kevin McCarthy just said in regards to China, that throughout history there are 16 times when the #2 power surpassed the #1 power, and only 4 times did it occur without a war happening.

Can you name the 4 times and the 16 times?



ChatGPT:
Kevin McCarthy's reference appears to be derived from the "Thucydides Trap," a concept popularized by political scientist Graham Allison in his book *Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?* The idea suggests that when a rising power (like China) threatens to displace a ruling power (like the United States), it often leads to war. According to Allison's analysis, out of 16 historical cases of such power transitions over the past 500 years, 12 ended in war, and 4 were resolved peacefully.


### The 4 Peaceful Transitions:

1. **United States surpassing the United Kingdom (late 19th/early 20th century):**
- The U.S. rose as an economic and military power, but the transition was peaceful due to shared cultural ties, democratic systems, and cooperation during global conflicts like World War I and II.

2. **United Kingdom surpassing the Netherlands (18th century):**
- Britain overtook the Dutch Republic as the dominant trading and colonial power without a direct war for supremacy, though broader European conflicts were ongoing.

3. **United States surpassing the Soviet Union (Cold War, 20th century):**
- The U.S. became the world's sole superpower following the peaceful collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

4. **Brazil surpassing Portugal (early 19th century):**
- Brazil declared independence in 1822 and transitioned into a dominant power in the region, surpassing its colonial ruler without a direct war between the two.

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### The 12 Cases That Led to War:

1. **Sparta vs. Athens (5th century BCE):** The Peloponnesian War resulted from Athens' rise, threatening Sparta's dominance in ancient Greece.
2. **Rome vs. Carthage (3rd century BCE):** The Punic Wars saw Rome defeat Carthage to dominate the Mediterranean.
3. **Ming China vs. Mongol Yuan Dynasty (14th century):** The Ming dynasty replaced the declining Mongols after extensive conflict.
4. **Spain vs. Portugal (15th-16th centuries):** Struggles over colonial dominance led to conflicts, though treaties like Tordesillas mitigated broader war.
5. **France vs. Spain (16th-17th centuries):** The Habsburg-Valois rivalry led to wars as France challenged Spain's dominance in Europe.
6. **Netherlands vs. Spain (16th century):** The Eighty Years' War resulted in Dutch independence and their rise as a maritime power.
7. **France vs. Britain (17th-18th centuries):** A series of wars (e.g., Seven Years' War) culminated in Britain's rise over France as the dominant global power.
8. **Germany vs. Britain (19th-20th centuries):** Germany's rise led to World War I and II.
9. **Japan vs. Russia (early 20th century):** The Russo-Japanese War marked Japan's emergence as a great power.
10. **Japan vs. U.S. (early-mid 20th century):** Japan's attempt to dominate the Pacific led to World War II.
11. **Soviet Union vs. Germany (20th century):** The Nazi-Soviet conflict during World War II reshaped European dominance.
12. **U.S. vs. Japan and Germany (20th century):** World War II marked the transition to U.S. global leadership.

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The Thucydides Trap isn't an inevitability but a framework for analyzing rising tensions. Whether the U.S. and China can avoid conflict depends on political decisions and cooperation in managing the competition.

^Already covered on this page https://bearinsider.com/forums/6/topics/125236/replies/2451627

Cal88 said:

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^Already covered on this page https://bearinsider.com/forums/6/topics/125236/replies/2451627

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Oh, wow!
I knew Kevin McCarthy was from California, but I didn't know he read BearInsider!

Lol
You watched the Inside China Business guy!l!

I was like, "wow!! They have other new AI - this space is going to get interesting faster than I thought!"

Cal88 said:

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concordtom said:

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Lol
You watched the Inside China Business guy!l!

I was like, "wow!! They have other new AI - this space is going to get interesting faster than I thought!"

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A lot of people covered that story, that was a very big deal this month, Schmidt was very impressed. But yeah, the Inside China Business guy is on top of things.

The other big deal, a quasi Sputnik moment, was the public unveiling in China of the first two 6th generation fighter jets in the world, they are now ahead in military jet technology. The equivalent program in the US, the NGAD, is still a decade away.

In 2015, China launched an ambitious industrial policy plan named "Made in China 2025".

The plan has been a massive success. China has become a global leader in five key technology areas, and is competitive in several others. pic.twitter.com/pDctZ056tg

— Jostein Hauge (@haugejostein) December 23, 2024

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China continually lies about the capability of the military equipment they bring out. I would not believe anything they tell you. 6th gen is a meaningless qualifier by the way, it's just a way these military industries try to sell their stuff.