SoCal fires thread

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BearGoggles
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In reply to DiabloWags • 11:45a, 1/14/25
DiabloWags said:
BearGoggles said:


I have a family member in the insurance industry and they have shared that Corelogic specifically identified the Palisades as a huge fire risk and so advised the insurance companies. Corelogic figured it out. Why didn't the governmental agencies who are the so called "experts"? Or did the governmental agencies know and not take appropriate actions.

Either way, it is ultimately up to the government agencies to plan for these types of fires, not to mention earthquakes and other foreseeable (if rare) events. If we have a 8.0 earthquake, will it be acceptable for the City to tell us the infrastructure was not designed to withstand that? Of course not. We know these events happen and the primary role of government is to plan for and address these events.

As I previously posted, it's interesting to note that after the NorCal fires of 2018, Michael Wara at the Climate and Energy Policy Program at Stanford was asked by the State Senate to develop financial models for a Wildfire Fund for catastrophic fires in three areas of the state:

Moraga/Orinda
Los Altos Hills
Pacific Palisades

He estimated that a megafire burning every single home down in the Palisades were somewhere around $30 Billion, without factoring post-pandemic inflation rates and inflated reconstruction costs.

The insurance companies figured it out a long long time ago.
That's why the FAIR Plan emerged from the State back in the 1960's to insure riot-scarred LA neighborhoods.

An insurance that isn't all that great and terribly expensive.
But it does exist.

In Pacific Palisades alone, the FAIR plan insures nearly $6 Billion worth of property, based on September 2024 data.
This is a number that is more than all but 4 communities in California.

I've read that across the state the total value of FAIR-insured properties was $458 Billion, triple the total insured value in 2020.





The FAIR policies provide very basic coverage and I believe there are limits on the amount of coverage that can be purchased (like $2-3M)

There are reports FAIR is underfunded/insolvent. How is FAIR backstopped? My understanding is that there is a surcharge to other insurance policies . . . but I'm not sure about that. In any event, FAIR cannot/should not be the long term solution.
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DiabloWags
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In reply to BearGoggles • 12:07p, 1/14/25
BearGoggles said:
DiabloWags said:
BearGoggles said:


I have a family member in the insurance industry and they have shared that Corelogic specifically identified the Palisades as a huge fire risk and so advised the insurance companies. Corelogic figured it out. Why didn't the governmental agencies who are the so called "experts"? Or did the governmental agencies know and not take appropriate actions.

Either way, it is ultimately up to the government agencies to plan for these types of fires, not to mention earthquakes and other foreseeable (if rare) events. If we have a 8.0 earthquake, will it be acceptable for the City to tell us the infrastructure was not designed to withstand that? Of course not. We know these events happen and the primary role of government is to plan for and address these events.

As I previously posted, it's interesting to note that after the NorCal fires of 2018, Michael Wara at the Climate and Energy Policy Program at Stanford was asked by the State Senate to develop financial models for a Wildfire Fund for catastrophic fires in three areas of the state:

Moraga/Orinda
Los Altos Hills
Pacific Palisades

He estimated that a megafire burning every single home down in the Palisades were somewhere around $30 Billion, without factoring post-pandemic inflation rates and inflated reconstruction costs.

The insurance companies figured it out a long long time ago.
That's why the FAIR Plan emerged from the State back in the 1960's to insure riot-scarred LA neighborhoods.

An insurance that isn't all that great and terribly expensive.
But it does exist.

In Pacific Palisades alone, the FAIR plan insures nearly $6 Billion worth of property, based on September 2024 data.
This is a number that is more than all but 4 communities in California.

I've read that across the state the total value of FAIR-insured properties was $458 Billion, triple the total insured value in 2020.





The FAIR policies provide very basic coverage and I believe there are limits on the amount of coverage that can be purchased (like $2-3M)

There are reports FAIR is underfunded/insolvent. How is FAIR backstopped? My understanding is that there is a surcharge to other insurance policies . . . but I'm not sure about that. In any event, FAIR cannot/should not be the long term solution.

It caps at $3 million.

It has a 3% market share in the state and has become the insurer of FIRST resort, not last resort for many.

The problem here is that last Summer, State Insurance Commissioner Ricard Lara cut a deal with participants in the FAIR Plan that would allow for losses suffered by the state's insurer of last resort to be recouped by surcharges on residential and commercial insurance policies statewide in an "extreme worst case scenario."

As the program is structured, insurance companies are on the hook up to $1 Billion to pay (residential) claims if the FAIR Plan runs through its reserves, reinsurance and catastrophic bonds.

Above $1 Billion, they are allowed to get BAILED OUT by the policyholder for half of what they are assessed via a temporary surcharge. Some consumer watchdog groups say that that could wind-up being a $1,000 bill for every homeowner in the state, and more.

Check out this video from this morning on KPIX News:

Californians could face insurance surcharges if Los Angeles fire claims deplete FAIR Plan - CBS San Francisco




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DiabloWags
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12:07p, 1/14/25
Homeowners would not be surcharged for commercial losses only holders of commercial policies would be. The agreement also allows insurers to temporarily surcharge policyholders for 100% of claims in excess of those amounts with the approval of the insurance commissioner.

"It's outrageous and outside the law for the insurance commissioner to force consumers to bail out home insurance companies and then call that consumer protection," said Carmen Balber, executive director of Los Angeles-based Consumer Watchdog.

FAIR Plan insurance reforms blasted as an industry 'bailout' - Los Angeles Times
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movielover
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1:57p, 1/14/25
I just read about 11,000 acres in the Big Sur area being off limits to grazing to protect a special butterfly.
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Big C
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In reply to movielover • 2:14p, 1/14/25
movielover said:
I just read about 11,000 acres in the Big Sur area being off limits to grazing to protect a special butterfly.

I bet what's special about it is that it's a trans butterfly. And it should be allowed to use any bathroom in Big Sur!
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oski003
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In reply to Big C • 2:32p, 1/14/25
Big C said:
movielover said:
I just read about 11,000 acres in the Big Sur area being off limits to grazing to protect a special butterfly.

I bet what's special about it is that it's a trans butterfly. And it should be allowed to use any bathroom in Big Sur!


Will all those bathrooms have tampons?
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movielover
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2:55p, 1/14/25
Schellenberger says 50% of fires in LA prior to PP set by drug users (aka homeless).
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movielover
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In reply to oski003 • 2:56p, 1/14/25
Can't a butterfly outwit a slow-moving cow?
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oski003
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In reply to movielover • 4:04p, 1/14/25
movielover said:
Can't a butterfly outwit a slow-moving cow?


I am pretty sure you are joking, but the concern here is maintaining the type of habitat where the butterfly can live and thrive. This may not jive with grazing lands. Perhaps the two can intersect. I would have to know more. We can't develop all land. There is a balance.
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Big C
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In reply to oski003 • 4:26p, 1/14/25
oski003 said:
Big C said:
movielover said:
I just read about 11,000 acres in the Big Sur area being off limits to grazing to protect a special butterfly.

I bet what's special about it is that it's a trans butterfly. And it should be allowed to use any bathroom in Big Sur!


Will all those bathrooms have tampons?

Little tiny ones, I hope. And the trans butterflies should receive gender affirming care and be able to play on both the male and female butterfly sports teams. Oh, and be able to choose their butterfly pronouns!
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Anarchistbear
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In reply to DiabloWags • 4:36p, 1/14/25
DiabloWags said:
BearGoggles said:
DiabloWags said:
BearGoggles said:


I have a family member in the insurance industry and they have shared that Corelogic specifically identified the Palisades as a huge fire risk and so advised the insurance companies. Corelogic figured it out. Why didn't the governmental agencies who are the so called "experts"? Or did the governmental agencies know and not take appropriate actions.

Either way, it is ultimately up to the government agencies to plan for these types of fires, not to mention earthquakes and other foreseeable (if rare) events. If we have a 8.0 earthquake, will it be acceptable for the City to tell us the infrastructure was not designed to withstand that? Of course not. We know these events happen and the primary role of government is to plan for and address these events.

As I previously posted, it's interesting to note that after the NorCal fires of 2018, Michael Wara at the Climate and Energy Policy Program at Stanford was asked by the State Senate to develop financial models for a Wildfire Fund for catastrophic fires in three areas of the state:

Moraga/Orinda
Los Altos Hills
Pacific Palisades

He estimated that a megafire burning every single home down in the Palisades were somewhere around $30 Billion, without factoring post-pandemic inflation rates and inflated reconstruction costs.

The insurance companies figured it out a long long time ago.
That's why the FAIR Plan emerged from the State back in the 1960's to insure riot-scarred LA neighborhoods.

An insurance that isn't all that great and terribly expensive.
But it does exist.

In Pacific Palisades alone, the FAIR plan insures nearly $6 Billion worth of property, based on September 2024 data.
This is a number that is more than all but 4 communities in California.

I've read that across the state the total value of FAIR-insured properties was $458 Billion, triple the total insured value in 2020.





The FAIR policies provide very basic coverage and I believe there are limits on the amount of coverage that can be purchased (like $2-3M)

There are reports FAIR is underfunded/insolvent. How is FAIR backstopped? My understanding is that there is a surcharge to other insurance policies . . . but I'm not sure about that. In any event, FAIR cannot/should not be the long term solution.

It caps at $3 million.

It has a 3% market share in the state and has become the insurer of FIRST resort, not last resort for many.

The problem here is that last Summer, State Insurance Commissioner Ricard Lara cut a deal with participants in the FAIR Plan that would allow for losses suffered by the state's insurer of last resort to be recouped by surcharges on residential and commercial insurance policies statewide in an "extreme worst case scenario."

As the program is structured, insurance companies are on the hook up to $1 Billion to pay (residential) claims if the FAIR Plan runs through its reserves, reinsurance and catastrophic bonds.

Above $1 Billion, they are allowed to get BAILED OUT by the policyholder for half of what they are assessed via a temporary surcharge. Some consumer watchdog groups say that that could wind-up being a $1,000 bill for every homeowner in the state, and more.

Check out this video from this morning on KPIX News:

Californians could face insurance surcharges if Los Angeles fire claims deplete FAIR Plan - CBS San Francisco






$3 million per unit- won't cover a lot in the Palisades

$1 billion is penny ante in this fire.

So if it is down to homeowners bailing them out- the question of why and what terms should be relevant- at least if this was a democracy
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chazzed
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In reply to movielover • 4:38p, 1/14/25
movielover said:
I just read about 11,000 acres in the Big Sur area being off limits to grazing to protect a special butterfly.
Hey everybody, movielover writes that there is an unknown source about some restriction being placed on grazing. We should all be outraged at the wokeness. (It is wokeness, right?)
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Anarchistbear
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4:41p, 1/14/25
Cattle aren't native. Deport the mother$krs
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movielover
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In reply to Anarchistbear • 7:30p, 1/14/25
Anarchistbear said:
Cattle aren't native. Deport the mother$krs


They're legal immigrants.

And are we talking about the actual possibly displaced butterflies, or are you down low referring to the butterfly vibrator, which I hear is fire.
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movielover
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7:53p, 1/14/25
Seasoned veterans question LAFD planning and tactics. This aligns with what my LEO suggested - why weren't there more resources on hand beforehand?

LATimes: L.A. fire officials could have put engines in the Palisades before the fire broke out. They didn't

"As the Los Angeles Fire Department faced extraordinary warnings of life-threatening winds, top commanders decided not to assign for emergency deployment roughly 1,000 available firefighters and dozens of water-carrying engines in advance of the fire that destroyed much of the Pacific Palisades and continues to burn, interviews and internal LAFD records show.

"Fire officials chose not to order the firefighters to remain on duty for a second shift last Tuesday as the winds were building which would have doubled the personnel on hand and staffed just five of more than 40 engines that are available to aid in battling wildfires, according to the records obtained by The Times, as well as interviews with LAFD officials and former chiefs with knowledge of city operations....

"...No extra engines had been placed in the Palisades, where the fire broke out about 10:30 a.m. on Jan. 7, officials said. The department pre-positioned nine engines to the San Fernando Valley and Hollywood that were already on duty,..."

"..."The plan you're using now for the fire you should have used before the fire," said former LAFD Battalion Chief Rick Crawford. "It's a known staffing tactic a deployment model....

"But others maintain that the more defenses the department had in place, the better the prospects of corralling the fire when it was small, no matter the speed and behavior of the winds. They cited an LAFD operations publication that states, "Our first-alarm brush response is based on a 'hit it hard and fast' concept. … If it is a high-hazard day, (fire) companies will be pre-deployed." "

"..."Every fire starts the size of a match head," said Crawford, who is now emergency and crisis management coordinator for the U.S. Capitol. "

https://www.aol.com/news/l-fire-officials-could-put-025142808.html
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Cal88
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9:06p, 1/14/25
There are nearly 70 CL-415s sitting idle in European hangars right now. If there were any serious leaders in LA, Sacramento or DC, they would have been on the phone with Madrid, Paris, Rome or Athens begging to have those planes fly from Europe to CA, which they can do in less than 48hrs.

8 tons of water dumped every 5 minutes over half a dozen targets, around the clock. on day 3 or 4 of this fire... Total gamechanger.

But the water bomber story gets worse.

California could have had 10 Russian jet-powered Be-200 water bombers at a steep discount at the turn of the century when Russia was broke. These jets that can also scoop up water by skimming the surface of a lake or ocean have nearly twice the capacity of the CL-415s. They are designed to fight large summer forest fires across Siberia, which demand high speed to cover large distances and high water capacity.







Russia offered to help CA once again in December 2017 while a very bad fire raged around Santa Barbara (Thomas Fire), at a time of the year when Russia was already covered with snow, and that offer was summarily rebuffed.



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calpoly
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In reply to oski003 • 9:16p, 1/14/25
oski003 said:
Big C said:
movielover said:
I just read about 11,000 acres in the Big Sur area being off limits to grazing to protect a special butterfly.

I bet what's special about it is that it's a trans butterfly. And it should be allowed to use any bathroom in Big Sur!


Will all those bathrooms have tampons?
Dude you are creepy. Get a life.
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Eastern Oregon Bear
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In reply to Cal88 • 10:14p, 1/14/25
Cal88 said:
There are nearly 70 CL-415s sitting idle in European hangars right now. If there were any serious leaders in LA, Sacramento or DC, they would have been on the phone with Madrid, Paris, Rome or Athens begging to have those planes fly from Europe to CA, which they can do in less than 48hrs.

8 tons of water dumped every 5 minutes over half a dozen targets, around the clock. on day 3 or 4 of this fire... Total gamechanger.

But the water bomber story gets worse.

California could have had 10 Russian jet-powered Be-200 water bombers at a steep discount at the turn of the century when Russia was broke. These jets that can also scoop up water by skimming the surface of a lake or ocean have nearly twice the capacity of the CL-415s. They are designed to fight large summer forest fires across Siberia, which demand high speed to cover large distances and high water capacity.







Russia offered to help CA once again in December 2017 while a very bad fire raged around Santa Barbara (Thomas Fire), at a time of the year when Russia was already covered with snow, and that offer was summarily rebuffed.



Who knew there were water bombers with intercontinental flight ranges!
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movielover
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In reply to Cal88 • 10:37p, 1/14/25
Tied for Post of the Day.
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oski003
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In reply to Eastern Oregon Bear • 1:37a, 1/15/25
Eastern Oregon Bear said:
Cal88 said:
There are nearly 70 CL-415s sitting idle in European hangars right now. If there were any serious leaders in LA, Sacramento or DC, they would have been on the phone with Madrid, Paris, Rome or Athens begging to have those planes fly from Europe to CA, which they can do in less than 48hrs.

8 tons of water dumped every 5 minutes over half a dozen targets, around the clock. on day 3 or 4 of this fire... Total gamechanger.

But the water bomber story gets worse.

California could have had 10 Russian jet-powered Be-200 water bombers at a steep discount at the turn of the century when Russia was broke. These jets that can also scoop up water by skimming the surface of a lake or ocean have nearly twice the capacity of the CL-415s. They are designed to fight large summer forest fires across Siberia, which demand high speed to cover large distances and high water capacity.







Russia offered to help CA once again in December 2017 while a very bad fire raged around Santa Barbara (Thomas Fire), at a time of the year when Russia was already covered with snow, and that offer was summarily rebuffed.



Who knew there were water bombers with intercontinental flight ranges!


Government employees certainly have trouble thinking outside the box. They seem to wake up each morning saying to themselves, "Just don't do anything that stands out. Make no waves. Protect job, keep head down, and just skate through."
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Eastern Oregon Bear
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In reply to oski003 • 2:36a, 1/15/25
oski003 said:
Eastern Oregon Bear said:
Cal88 said:
There are nearly 70 CL-415s sitting idle in European hangars right now. If there were any serious leaders in LA, Sacramento or DC, they would have been on the phone with Madrid, Paris, Rome or Athens begging to have those planes fly from Europe to CA, which they can do in less than 48hrs.

8 tons of water dumped every 5 minutes over half a dozen targets, around the clock. on day 3 or 4 of this fire... Total gamechanger.

But the water bomber story gets worse.

California could have had 10 Russian jet-powered Be-200 water bombers at a steep discount at the turn of the century when Russia was broke. These jets that can also scoop up water by skimming the surface of a lake or ocean have nearly twice the capacity of the CL-415s. They are designed to fight large summer forest fires across Siberia, which demand high speed to cover large distances and high water capacity.







Russia offered to help CA once again in December 2017 while a very bad fire raged around Santa Barbara (Thomas Fire), at a time of the year when Russia was already covered with snow, and that offer was summarily rebuffed.



Who knew there were water bombers with intercontinental flight ranges!


Government employees certainly have trouble thinking outside the box. They seem to wake up each morning saying to themselves, "Just don't do anything that stands out. Make no waves. Protect job, keep head down, and just skate through."
Fire fighting is WAY outside the scope of my job, so I haven't paid much attention to the specs of water bombing aircraft. I'm not denying it's possible to fly that plane from Europe to the US. It just looks unlikely to have large enough fuel tanks for the trip. Maybe with stops in Iceland and Newfoundland. But I fully admit I haven't looked into the capabilities of that plane. I was just expressing my surprise. I hope I'm allowed to do that.
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Cal88
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In reply to Eastern Oregon Bear • 5:12a, 1/15/25
I guess you've answered your own question.
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Eastern Oregon Bear
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In reply to Cal88 • 5:25a, 1/15/25
Cal88 said:
I guess you've answered your own question.
Notice the exclamation mark? I didn't ask a question. You and 003 really need to work on your reading comprehension.
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DiabloWags
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6:11a, 1/15/25
Gotta "rake" those forests in LA like the Orange Man said.

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going4roses
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6:21a, 1/15/25
Smh
This disaster is showing America for what it is...
"Nothing feels better to a coward than to watch a brave guy fall..."
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Cal88
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In reply to Eastern Oregon Bear • 6:22a, 1/15/25
Eastern Oregon Bear said:
Cal88 said:
I guess you've answered your own question.
Notice the exclamation mark? I didn't ask a question. You and 003 really need to work on your reading comprehension.

You said:

"Who knew there were water bombers with intercontinental flight ranges!"

sarcastically deriding the notion that CL-415 could fly across the Atlantic. You were wrong.
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DiabloWags
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In reply to going4roses • 6:31a, 1/15/25
going4roses said:
Smh
This disaster is showing America for what it is...

Yeah, we should have been able to prevent those 60 mph winds.
Shame on America.

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movielover
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In reply to going4roses • 8:10a, 1/15/25
going4roses said:
Smh
This disaster is showing America for what it is...


These disasters are showing what long-term Progressive leadership cause, nationally and locally.

Newsom inherited the 5th largest economy in the world, on the Pacific, strategically located near Asia, abundant natural resources, amazing weather, and they screw it up beyond belief.

Open border, which the drug cartels run, over 200,000 inhabiting open-air drug bazaars (aka homeless), cities turned into literal Mad Max zones, slow-speed train to nowhere, unable to meet basic needs of water and fire protection. $24 Billion spent on drug bazaars, unaccounted. $1B no-bid contract for face masks to China.

DEI Fire leader blames potential victims caught in fires, $750,000 LADWP DEI CEO leaves #1 reservoir empty during an EXTREME DANGER off-the-charts weather event. Governor overstates fire suppression work by 600%, while the LA Mayor takes routine pleasure trips to Paris and Africa. The State with desert and Mediterranean climates essentially ends all standard suppression activities for decades, causing fires to grow in size and insurance companies to move out.

Is Newsoms drinking problem under control?
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DiabloWags
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In reply to movielover • 8:15a, 1/15/25
And yet California remains the world's 5th largest economy in the WORLD with $3.8 Trillion GDP.
That's twice as much as Cal88's Mother Russia.





California Remains the World's 5th Largest Economy | Governor of California

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DiabloWags
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In reply to movielover • 8:25a, 1/15/25
movielover said:


Is Newsoms drinking problem under control?

Is yours?
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movielover
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In reply to DiabloWags • 8:47a, 1/15/25
DiabloWags said:
movielover said:


Is Newsoms drinking problem under control?

Is yours?


I never publicly stated I had a problem. Shouldn't he unload his booze empire?
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DiabloWags
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In reply to movielover • 8:53a, 1/15/25
movielover said:
DiabloWags said:
movielover said:


Is Newsoms drinking problem under control?

Is yours?


I never publicly stated I had a problem. Shouldn't he unload his booze empire?

Why should he sell PlumpJack Winery?

Is English a second language for you?

I don't know of anyone that calls a winery a "booze" empire.

Booze Definition & Meaning - Merriam-Webster
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movielover
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In reply to DiabloWags • 8:58a, 1/15/25
Balboa Cafe, MatrixFillmore Bar, etc.
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Eastern Oregon Bear
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In reply to Cal88 • 9:58a, 1/15/25
Cal88 said:
Eastern Oregon Bear said:
Cal88 said:
I guess you've answered your own question.
Notice the exclamation mark? I didn't ask a question. You and 003 really need to work on your reading comprehension.

You said:

"Who knew there were water bombers with intercontinental flight ranges!"

sarcastically deriding the notion that CL-415 could fly across the Atlantic. You were wrong.
OK, I give. You know more about what I am thinking than I do. I yield the punctuation battle to you. Just let me clear my dead and wounded from the field of battle.

Your family must be so proud of you.

Gotta go, my argument about how angels can dance on the head of a pin is heating up. I say it's 42.
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chazzed
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In reply to DiabloWags • 10:28a, 1/15/25
DiabloWags said:
movielover said:


Is Newsoms drinking problem under control?

Is yours?
He may be knocking them back with Hegseth at this moment.
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