TSLA a hard pass

11,080 Views | 150 Replies | Last: 5 days ago by BearlySane88
oski003
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SBGold said:

oski003 said:

Lucid isn't a real competitor to Tesla.

I had a friend in the past 4 months switch from a Tesla to a Lucid. Hmmmm


My mom switched from a Jeep to a Kia. Hmmmm
DiabloWags
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wifeisafurd said:

Here we are in May and stock price is about the same as it was when this thread started, despite profits being down. The market, in general, has gone up despite all the disruptions from tariffs and Trump's war, so Tesla has not been exactly a winner for the portfolio. Elon has terminated production of his iconic S class and the X (a mistake IMO) in order to fund a shift toward AI/robotics over traditional car manufacturing. Elon is expanding Cybertruck production because we need more cars that we don't want to park next to, expanding Full Self-Driving which may be the future, and developing the Optimus robot which who knows. Bottom line is investors seem to think Elon still is good at predicting the future and are sticking with him.

Now if you want to a really high risk proposition, there is Lucid, with significant net losses and horrible cash burn, that likely won't make it to 2027 unless the get another bail out from the Saudi Royals. Nice to see my progressive friends love supporting the Saudi's car (which is a good luxury EV).


Not a fan of Lucid given that you have to use a touchscreen just to turn on the windshield wipers.
And that's just for starters.

But given Tesla's eyewatering valuation, a small "stumble" on the way to the FSD and Robot business plan would clearly affect the share price in a negative manner.

Let's not forget that we are talking about a company that trades at a whopping 296x this year's earnings and 192x 2026 numbers.
Aunburdened
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DiabloWags said:

Will always be an ICE guy.

I'm surprised to see you support ICE
DiabloWags
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Aunburdened said:

DiabloWags said:

Will always be an ICE guy.

I'm surprised to see you support ICE

Apparently, you're not well versed when it comes to engines.

Internal
Combustion
Engine
SBGold
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Aunburdened said:

DiabloWags said:

Will always be an ICE guy.

I'm surprised to see you support ICE

It's not ICE it's NICE
wifeisafurd
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DiabloWags said:

wifeisafurd said:

Here we are in May and stock price is about the same as it was when this thread started, despite profits being down. The market, in general, has gone up despite all the disruptions from tariffs and Trump's war, so Tesla has not been exactly a winner for the portfolio. Elon has terminated production of his iconic S class and the X (a mistake IMO) in order to fund a shift toward AI/robotics over traditional car manufacturing. Elon is expanding Cybertruck production because we need more cars that we don't want to park next to, expanding Full Self-Driving which may be the future, and developing the Optimus robot which who knows. Bottom line is investors seem to think Elon still is good at predicting the future and are sticking with him.

Now if you want to a really high risk proposition, there is Lucid, with significant net losses and horrible cash burn, that likely won't make it to 2027 unless the get another bail out from the Saudi Royals. Nice to see my progressive friends love supporting the Saudi's car (which is a good luxury EV).


Not a fan of Lucid given that you have to use a touchscreen just to turn on the windshield wipers.
And that's just for starters.

But given Tesla's eyewatering valuation, a small "stumble" on the way to the FSD and Robot business plan would clearly affect the share price in a negative manner.

Let's not forget that we are talking about a company that trades at a whopping 296x this year's earnings and 192x 2026 numbers.

yea, the valuation seems absurdly high. Tech companies (and Tesla seems more tech company than car company) command high valuations primarily due to their immense potential for rapid, scalable growth, recurring revenue models drive by IP protection generated monopolies. Let's face it, pick the right one you can win so big the losers don't matter. that much.
DiabloWags
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Tesla investors pan latest number of EV deliveries in Q2.
Despite a blowout 480,126

SBGold
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It's a trash product
BearlySane88
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SBGold said:

It's a trash product


Except it's not. I understand your hatred for Elon but it's clouding your analysis of Tesla, as it does many.
oski003
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BearlySane88 said:

SBGold said:

It's a trash product


Except it's not. I understand your hatred for Elon but it's clouding your analysis of Tesla, as it does many.


Teslas are excellent cars at great prices. Their technology is generally better than Saudi Arabia owned Lucid at a much better price point. Lucid loses billions of dollars each year.
DiabloWags
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If I went the EV route, I would most likely choose Rivian.
The R2 is a great value.

Is the Rivian R2 America's next great SUV?

The Most Detailed Review Of The Rivian R2 You Will Ever Read - The Autopian

BearlySane88
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DiabloWags said:

If I went the EV route, I would most likely choose Rivian.
The R2 is a great value.

Is the Rivian R2 America's next great SUV?

The Most Detailed Review Of The Rivian R2 You Will Ever Read - The Autopian




ChatGPT says you'd be making the wrong choice. Probably fueled by your dislike of Elon.

Safety
Winner: Tie (slight edge to Tesla for crash-test data)

Technology
Winner: Tesla

Driver Assistance
Winner: Tesla (capability)

Performance
Winner: Tesla

Interior
Winner: Rivian

Charging
Winner: Tesla

Reliability
Winner: Tesla





DiabloWags
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Another cool story.
The R2 just came out.

Rivian (RIVN) Starts R2 Deliveries As It Builds Out 5G And Charging Partnerships

Your personal attack is also noted.
As is your failure to recall that I have repeatedly said that I am not an EV guy.

My Porsche Macan GTS is currently at the Port of Emden waiting to get on a ship to Benicia.
It's not a Macan EV.

Thanks.



BearlySane88
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DiabloWags said:

Another cool story.
The R2 just came out.

Rivian (RIVN) Starts R2 Deliveries As It Builds Out 5G And Charging Partnerships

Your personal attack is also noted.
As is your failure to recall that I have repeatedly said that I am not an EV guy.

My Porsche Macan GTS is currently at the Port of Emden waiting to get on a ship to Benicia.
It's not a Macan EV.

Thanks.






How could anyone fail to recall you're an ICE guy, you've posted it many, many times. There was no failure but let me recap the convo for you so you can understand why I posted what I posted.

Recap:
You posted that you'd buy a Rivian if you were to go the EV route. I posted a response that says Tesla is better in almost every aspect.

P.S. we know about your Macan. It's totally cool to be excited about something you purchase, I just made a relatively large purchase for myself and I'm stoked. When you talk about it a lot though, people stop being as excited for you.
DiabloWags
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BearlySane88 said:


Recap:

You posted that you'd buy a Rivian if you were to go the EV route. I posted a response that says Tesla is better in almost every aspect.



I clearly posted about the Rivian R2.
It just came out. Thus, your Ai comparison with Tesla is meaningless given that it has nothing to do with the R2.
BearlySane88
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DiabloWags said:

BearlySane88 said:


Recap:

You posted that you'd buy a Rivian if you were to go the EV route. I posted a response that says Tesla is better in almost every aspect.



I clearly posted about the Rivian R2.
It just came out. Thus, your Ai comparison with Tesla is meaningless given that it has nothing to do with the R2.



My analysis compared the companies as a whole, all models.
DiabloWags
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BearlySane88 said:

DiabloWags said:

BearlySane88 said:


Recap:

You posted that you'd buy a Rivian if you were to go the EV route. I posted a response that says Tesla is better in almost every aspect.



I clearly posted about the Rivian R2.
It just came out. Thus, your Ai comparison with Tesla is meaningless given that it has nothing to do with the R2.



My analysis compared the companies as a whole, all models.


Thanks for admitting that the comparison you provided has nothing to do with the Rivian R2.
I'm glad that you were finally able to clarify that.
BearlySane88
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DiabloWags said:

BearlySane88 said:

DiabloWags said:

BearlySane88 said:


Recap:

You posted that you'd buy a Rivian if you were to go the EV route. I posted a response that says Tesla is better in almost every aspect.



I clearly posted about the Rivian R2.
It just came out. Thus, your Ai comparison with Tesla is meaningless given that it has nothing to do with the R2.



My analysis compared the companies as a whole, all models.


Thanks for admitting that the comparison has nothing to do with the Rivian R2.
I'm glad that you were finally able to clarify that.



Except I didn't. I said all models. The R2 has been out for over a month, that would be included in all models.
DiabloWags
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BearlySane88 said:

DiabloWags said:

BearlySane88 said:

DiabloWags said:

BearlySane88 said:


Recap:

You posted that you'd buy a Rivian if you were to go the EV route. I posted a response that says Tesla is better in almost every aspect.



I clearly posted about the Rivian R2.
It just came out. Thus, your Ai comparison with Tesla is meaningless given that it has nothing to do with the R2.



My analysis compared the companies as a whole, all models.


Thanks for admitting that the comparison has nothing to do with the Rivian R2.
I'm glad that you were finally able to clarify that.



Except I didn't. I said all models. The R2 has been out for over a month, that would be included in all models.


FACT:

I spoke specifically about the Rivian R2 and claimed it was a great value.
Nothing that you posted negates what I said about the R2 which starts at $50,000

The R2 just came out so (for starters) any Ai analysis about reliability would not apply to the R2.
This should be obvious to anyone.





BearlySane88
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DiabloWags said:

BearlySane88 said:

DiabloWags said:

BearlySane88 said:

DiabloWags said:

BearlySane88 said:


Recap:

You posted that you'd buy a Rivian if you were to go the EV route. I posted a response that says Tesla is better in almost every aspect.



I clearly posted about the Rivian R2.
It just came out. Thus, your Ai comparison with Tesla is meaningless given that it has nothing to do with the R2.



My analysis compared the companies as a whole, all models.


Thanks for admitting that the comparison has nothing to do with the Rivian R2.
I'm glad that you were finally able to clarify that.



Except I didn't. I said all models. The R2 has been out for over a month, that would be included in all models.


FACT:

I spoke specifically about the Rivian R2 and claimed it was a great value.
The R2 just came out so (for starters) any Ai analysis about reliability would not apply to the R2.





Once again, I compared the two companies and their models together as a whole. Feel free to run your own analysis of the R2 and its Tesla competitor.
DiabloWags
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BearlySane88 said:

DiabloWags said:

BearlySane88 said:

DiabloWags said:

BearlySane88 said:

DiabloWags said:

BearlySane88 said:


Recap:

You posted that you'd buy a Rivian if you were to go the EV route. I posted a response that says Tesla is better in almost every aspect.



I clearly posted about the Rivian R2.
It just came out. Thus, your Ai comparison with Tesla is meaningless given that it has nothing to do with the R2.



My analysis compared the companies as a whole, all models.


Thanks for admitting that the comparison has nothing to do with the Rivian R2.
I'm glad that you were finally able to clarify that.



Except I didn't. I said all models. The R2 has been out for over a month, that would be included in all models.


FACT:

I spoke specifically about the Rivian R2 and claimed it was a great value.
The R2 just came out so (for starters) any Ai analysis about reliability would not apply to the R2.





Once again, I compared the two companies and their models together as a whole. Feel free to run your own analysis of the R2 and its Tesla competitor.


I will leave that up to you.
Thanks.

wifeisafurd
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Chinese manufactures are expanding in plug in hybrids and cutting back on EVAs. Not a good sign for an EVA maker like Tesla, Rivian, Lucid, etc. Apparently in the overall world market EVA growth is decking where PHVAs ae seeing the growth. Expect some drop outs from the EVA market.
DiabloWags
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No doubt about it.
This is why VW (and everyone else in EV land) is having issues.

Of course, the Trump tariffs and elimination of the EV tax credit didn't help either.
Last December, VW shuttered its plant in Dresden after 22 years.

Zwickau is their flagship EV plant.

Although VW's Executive Board has yet to approve the "proposal" it would appear that "consolidation" is in the cards.
Surely there will be huge opposition by the labor union.

The Company is still targeting annual production of 9 million units.

VW could cut 100,000 jobs and close 4 factories in a radical shake-up | Electrek



oski003
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DiabloWags said:

BearlySane88 said:

DiabloWags said:

BearlySane88 said:

DiabloWags said:

BearlySane88 said:


Recap:

You posted that you'd buy a Rivian if you were to go the EV route. I posted a response that says Tesla is better in almost every aspect.



I clearly posted about the Rivian R2.
It just came out. Thus, your Ai comparison with Tesla is meaningless given that it has nothing to do with the R2.



My analysis compared the companies as a whole, all models.


Thanks for admitting that the comparison has nothing to do with the Rivian R2.
I'm glad that you were finally able to clarify that.



Except I didn't. I said all models. The R2 has been out for over a month, that would be included in all models.


FACT:

I spoke specifically about the Rivian R2 and claimed it was a great value.
Nothing that you posted negates what I said about the R2 which starts at $50,000

The R2 just came out so (for starters) any Ai analysis about reliability would not apply to the R2.
This should be obvious to anyone.




The R2 that is available now STARTS at 58K. They also have very low production on it. They have a long way to ramp up to have it generally available at a 50K price. I agree that Rivian is a better value than Lucid.
DiabloWags
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Yes, starting at $57,990 now.
And estimated starting at $44,990 in 2027.

Like I previously posted before someone attacked me with an "EDS" remark, this is a "great value".
If I was an EV guy I would definitely consider the R2.

That having been said, the lease price is a turn off.

Rivian's New R2 SUV Is Here. Fans Are Already Balking at the Lease Price. - WSJ

The write-up in the WSJ last weekend by Dan Neil was terrific.



Rivian R2 Electric SUV: Price, Range & Features
oski003
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DiabloWags said:

Yes, starting at $57,990 now.
And estimated starting at $44,990 in 2027.

Like I previously posted before someone attacked me with an "EDS" remark, this is a "great value".
If I was an EV guy I would definitely consider the R2.

That having been said, the lease price is a turn off.

Rivian's New R2 SUV Is Here. Fans Are Already Balking at the Lease Price. - WSJ

The write-up in the WSJ last weekend by Dan Neil was terrific.



Rivian R2 Electric SUV: Price, Range & Features



I am very skeptical they will have a model generally available in 2027 for 45K. They do need to pump their stock price though as they lose more than 3.5 billion per year.
DiabloWags
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I believe that Tesla had the same problem back in 2016
They burned through a lot of cash too.
Typical of an EV start up.

Will Tesla Burn Through Its Remaining Cash?
oski003
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DiabloWags said:

I believe that Tesla had the same problem back in 2016
They burned through a lot of cash too.
Typical of an EV start up.

Will Tesla Burn Through Its Remaining Cash?



And the $35,000 model 3 didn't premier until 2019 and was quickly phased out for more expensive higher trim models. Rivian isn't magically going to mass produce 45K R2's and have them available in 2027. It ain't happening.
SBGold
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What was with your personal attack
On me and Wags though?
SBGold
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I've drive multiple Teslas in the past and they are trash. Every owner I know that has had one for more than a year talks about how poor the construction is.

Not for me, and that personal attack was not appreciated
DiabloWags
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oski003 said:

DiabloWags said:

I believe that Tesla had the same problem back in 2016
They burned through a lot of cash too.
Typical of an EV start up.

Will Tesla Burn Through Its Remaining Cash?



And the $35,000 model 3 didn't premier until 2019 and was quickly phased out for more expensive higher trim models. Rivian isn't magically going to mass produce 45K R2's and have them available in 2027. It ain't happening.


You should short the stock then.

oski003
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DiabloWags said:

oski003 said:

DiabloWags said:

I believe that Tesla had the same problem back in 2016
They burned through a lot of cash too.
Typical of an EV start up.

Will Tesla Burn Through Its Remaining Cash?



And the $35,000 model 3 didn't premier until 2019 and was quickly phased out for more expensive higher trim models. Rivian isn't magically going to mass produce 45K R2's and have them available in 2027. It ain't happening.


You should short the stock then.




Nah, the short was when it was originally listed a $130 five years ago. The stock has already plummeted. People who bought then have lost 85% of their money. I have more faith in Rivian surviving then Lucid.
oski003
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SBGold said:

I've drive multiple Teslas in the past and they are trash. Every owner I know that has had one for more than a year talks about how poor the construction is.

Not for me, and that personal attack was not appreciated


Weird. Every owner I have talked to loves their Tesla although there were some minor issues in the first production run of Model 3s nine years ago. We have a Model 3, three of my neighbors have Model Y's, and another has a Model X. My daughter's friend is about to come over. Her dad drives a Model X.
DiabloWags
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oski003 said:

SBGold said:

I've drive multiple Teslas in the past and they are trash. Every owner I know that has had one for more than a year talks about how poor the construction is.

Not for me, and that personal attack was not appreciated


Weird. Every owner I have talked to loves their Tesla although there were some minor issues in the first production run of Model 3s nine years ago. We have a Model 3, three of my neighbors have Model Y's, and another has a Model X. My daughter's friend is about to come over. Her dad drives a Model X.


I know that there are a lot of Tesla owners (such as Dajo) who clearly were NOT happy with the way that Elon slashed prices and basically crippled the re-sale value of their vehicles. Can't imagine how poor the "trade-in" value is.
I would never own a Tesla. Only lease.


oski003
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DiabloWags said:

oski003 said:

SBGold said:

I've drive multiple Teslas in the past and they are trash. Every owner I know that has had one for more than a year talks about how poor the construction is.

Not for me, and that personal attack was not appreciated


Weird. Every owner I have talked to loves their Tesla although there were some minor issues in the first production run of Model 3s nine years ago. We have a Model 3, three of my neighbors have Model Y's, and another has a Model X. My daughter's friend is about to come over. Her dad drives a Model X.


I know that there are a lot of Tesla owners (such as Dajo) who clearly were NOT happy with the way that Elon slashed prices and basically crippled the re-sale value of their vehicles. Can't imagine how poor the "trade-in" value is.
I would never own a Tesla. Only lease.





That's fine. We have had our Model 3 for 8 years and have gotten great value. We weren't asleep when Musk repeatedly stated his goals a long time ago that Tesla was to provide an inexpensive EV for the masses.
 
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