The ECONOMY Part Deux

27,958 Views | 397 Replies | Last: 1 day ago by BearlySane88
DiabloWags
How long do you want to ignore this user?
So much for being the hottest country in the world right now.

movielover
How long do you want to ignore this user?
High energy prices, taxes, USMCA ending.

BLOOMBERG […] "KPMG Canada said on Tuesday that 42 per cent of Canadian manufacturing companies indicated they have or are considering moving production to the United States. Of those considering relocating, 77 per cent expect to make the transition within the next two years.

[…] the issues go beyond the trade situation though, with Canada needing to create a competitive environment for manufacturers to grow."
DiabloWags
How long do you want to ignore this user?
That's really not a surprise.

86% of Canadian manufacturers operate beyond Canada.
61% say their business depends on access to the U.S. market.
DiabloWags
How long do you want to ignore this user?





Criteria: Infrastructure, Economy, Workforce, Quality of Life, Cost of Doing Business, Tech & Innovation

Top States for Business in America 2026: Full rankings
DiabloWags
How long do you want to ignore this user?
DiabloWags
How long do you want to ignore this user?
"It's not levered ETFs that keep you awake at night," says Alex Altmann head of equity strategies at Barclays.

"What keeps you awake at night is that you [might] have a structural impairment to equities that effectively no economist on the planet has a cell in their econometric model that says 20% impairment to the S&P, that basically destroys, let's just call it, around about $16 trillion of wealth.

So let's just say that's half of US GDP, right? And that is an instant impairment to US consumption. It's your recession straight out the gate."

The explosion in levered ETFs may be one of the more extreme results of increased retail participation in the stock market recently. But when 34% of US wealth is in stocks, the market isn't just reflecting economic reality, it's shaping it.
Cal88
How long do you want to ignore this user?
movielover said:

High energy prices, taxes, USMCA ending.

BLOOMBERG […] "KPMG Canada said on Tuesday that 42 per cent of Canadian manufacturing companies indicated they have or are considering moving production to the United States. Of those considering relocating, 77 per cent expect to make the transition within the next two years.

[…] the issues go beyond the trade situation though, with Canada needing to create a competitive environment for manufacturers to grow."

Dems winning the midterms might change the dynamic? This being said, the Canadian dollar is at a decades low. Trudeau really did them in by restricting their fossil fuel production, they would have raked it in with the Persian Gulf about to blow up and Europe needing to replace Russian gas, Carney is trying to right their ship there.
movielover
How long do you want to ignore this user?
They just inked a deal with Germany's ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems to buy up to 12 submarines. The EU will try to help Canada, unsure where Alberta independence sits.

PAC-10-BEAR
How long do you want to ignore this user?
DiabloWags said:

So much for being the hottest country in the world right now.

dajo9
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Good discussion about growing wealth inequality. This guy points out that we don't need to raise taxes, we need to change who pays taxes.

tequila4kapp
How long do you want to ignore this user?
dajo9 said:

Good discussion about growing wealth inequality. This guy points out that we don't need to raise taxes, we need to change who pays taxes.



The billionaire class he discusses (in the UK) is 4,000 people in a nation of nearly 70,000,000.

The UKs annual budget is 1.4 Trillion. If the UK billionaire class was taxed at 100% they could fund their annual budget just under 3 times.

He makes a lot of conclusions that fall in the correlation not causation category.

It is interesting how he explained that he created his wealth as an investor but in the next segment says the only certain way to do it is to have a rich dad.

And finally, it appears he is flat out factually wrong about some things. He claimed the UK had more growth in the 50s, 60s and 70# when the government owned more. Per this data that does not appear to be correct.

tequila4kapp
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Cal88
How long do you want to ignore this user?
tequila4kapp said:

dajo9 said:

Good discussion about growing wealth inequality. This guy points out that we don't need to raise taxes, we need to change who pays taxes.



The billionaire class he discusses (in the UK) is 4,000 people in a nation of nearly 70,000,000.

The UKs annual budget is 1.4 Trillion. If the UK billionaire class was taxed at 100% they could fund their annual budget just under 3 times.

He makes a lot of conclusions that fall in the correlation not causation category.

It is interesting how he explained that he created his wealth as an investor but in the next segment says the only certain way to do it is to have a rich dad.

And finally, it appears he is flat out factually wrong about some things. He claimed the UK had more growth in the 50s, 60s and 70# when the government owned more. Per this data that does not appear to be correct.




This graph does actually confirm that the growth rate is slowing down over time, because a constant growth rate would have resulted in geometric growth, not linear.
ProBonoBear415
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Cal88 said:

tequila4kapp said:

And finally, it appears he is flat out factually wrong about some things. He claimed the UK had more growth in the 50s, 60s and 70# when the government owned more. Per this data that does not appear to be correct.

https://f5s-img.s3.amazonaws.com/008/37/57/375786cc8e4e7c4bd82268edabf4c3bb581c23e6_176199_u1718.jpg


This graph does actually confirm that the growth rate is slowing down over time, because a constant growth rate would have resulted in geometric growth, not linear.


Correct.

It's the rate of change of growth that accurately backs his statement.
Not the cumulative growth of GDP
tequila4kapp
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Cal88 said:

tequila4kapp said:

dajo9 said:

Good discussion about growing wealth inequality. This guy points out that we don't need to raise taxes, we need to change who pays taxes.



The billionaire class he discusses (in the UK) is 4,000 people in a nation of nearly 70,000,000.

The UKs annual budget is 1.4 Trillion. If the UK billionaire class was taxed at 100% they could fund their annual budget just under 3 times.

He makes a lot of conclusions that fall in the correlation not causation category.

It is interesting how he explained that he created his wealth as an investor but in the next segment says the only certain way to do it is to have a rich dad.

And finally, it appears he is flat out factually wrong about some things. He claimed the UK had more growth in the 50s, 60s and 70# when the government owned more. Per this data that does not appear to be correct.




This graph does actually confirm that the growth rate is slowing down over time, because a constant growth rate would have resulted in geometric growth, not linear.
A liberal arts guy is over his skis with this so help me out… but there was linear growth during the 50s, 60 and 70s too, so the graph still disproves the original claim just in a different way, right (ie, there wasn't 'extra growth' during the government ownership years)?
cal83dls79
How long do you want to ignore this user?
tequila4kapp said:

Cal88 said:

tequila4kapp said:

dajo9 said:

Good discussion about growing wealth inequality. This guy points out that we don't need to raise taxes, we need to change who pays taxes.



The billionaire class he discusses (in the UK) is 4,000 people in a nation of nearly 70,000,000.

The UKs annual budget is 1.4 Trillion. If the UK billionaire class was taxed at 100% they could fund their annual budget just under 3 times.

He makes a lot of conclusions that fall in the correlation not causation category.

It is interesting how he explained that he created his wealth as an investor but in the next segment says the only certain way to do it is to have a rich dad.

And finally, it appears he is flat out factually wrong about some things. He claimed the UK had more growth in the 50s, 60s and 70# when the government owned more. Per this data that does not appear to be correct.




This graph does actually confirm that the growth rate is slowing down over time, because a constant growth rate would have resulted in geometric growth, not linear.
A liberal arts guy is over his skis with this so help me out… but there was linear growth during the 50s, 60 and 70s too, so the graph still disproves the original claim just in a different way, right (ie, there wasn't 'extra growth' during the government ownership years)?
measure the slope of the slope and put that on a graph which would be called the derivative
Priest of the Patty Hearst Shrine
dajo9
How long do you want to ignore this user?
tequila4kapp said:

dajo9 said:

Good discussion about growing wealth inequality. This guy points out that we don't need to raise taxes, we need to change who pays taxes.



The billionaire class he discusses (in the UK) is 4,000 people in a nation of nearly 70,000,000.

The UKs annual budget is 1.4 Trillion. If the UK billionaire class was taxed at 100% they could fund their annual budget just under 3 times.

He makes a lot of conclusions that fall in the correlation not causation category.

It is interesting how he explained that he created his wealth as an investor but in the next segment says the only certain way to do it is to have a rich dad.

And finally, it appears he is flat out factually wrong about some things. He claimed the UK had more growth in the 50s, 60s and 70# when the government owned more. Per this data that does not appear to be correct.



Every billionaire is a policy error. I think the argument that taxing wealth won't completely solve the problem is a red herring. Taxing wealth will improve fiscal deficits, improve community, and push down asset prices like housing. Additionally, as has been pointed out the chart shows growth rates were higher (in the UK and the US) before we adopted supply side policies.
dajo9
How long do you want to ignore this user?
This chart shows a small downward trend in GDP growth rates for the UK

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ihyp/pn2
Cal88
How long do you want to ignore this user?
tequila4kapp said:

Cal88 said:

tequila4kapp said:

dajo9 said:

Good discussion about growing wealth inequality. This guy points out that we don't need to raise taxes, we need to change who pays taxes.



The billionaire class he discusses (in the UK) is 4,000 people in a nation of nearly 70,000,000.

The UKs annual budget is 1.4 Trillion. If the UK billionaire class was taxed at 100% they could fund their annual budget just under 3 times.

He makes a lot of conclusions that fall in the correlation not causation category.

It is interesting how he explained that he created his wealth as an investor but in the next segment says the only certain way to do it is to have a rich dad.

And finally, it appears he is flat out factually wrong about some things. He claimed the UK had more growth in the 50s, 60s and 70# when the government owned more. Per this data that does not appear to be correct.




This graph does actually confirm that the growth rate is slowing down over time, because a constant growth rate would have resulted in geometric growth, not linear.

A liberal arts guy is over his skis with this so help me out… but there was linear growth during the 50s, 60 and 70s too, so the graph still disproves the original claim just in a different way, right (ie, there wasn't 'extra growth' during the government ownership years)?


UK GDP growth in the 70s declined, that's why cumulative growth (or the nominal GDP) is linear.

Contrast the UK GDP graph above with the US below, the geometric nature and is more clear because growth in the last few decades is higher than that of the UK:





movielover
How long do you want to ignore this user?
My understanding is that 20K millionaires left the UK last year; and if the UK were a US state, it's average income would rank it 51st. Take out London, and its even worse. Meanwhile, they're importing hundreds of thousands of illiterate immigrants yearly to massively expand the welfare rolls.
cal83dls79
How long do you want to ignore this user?
movielover said:

My understanding is that 20K millionaires left the UK last year; and if the UK were a US state, it's average income would rank it 51st. Take out London, and it's even worse. Meanwhile, they're importing hundreds of thousands of illiterate immigrants yearly to massively expand the welfare rolls.
I'm sure with the new posting rules that this will get full fact checking and validation
Priest of the Patty Hearst Shrine
Eastern Oregon Bear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Cal88 said:

tequila4kapp said:

Cal88 said:

tequila4kapp said:

dajo9 said:

Good discussion about growing wealth inequality. This guy points out that we don't need to raise taxes, we need to change who pays taxes.



The billionaire class he discusses (in the UK) is 4,000 people in a nation of nearly 70,000,000.

The UKs annual budget is 1.4 Trillion. If the UK billionaire class was taxed at 100% they could fund their annual budget just under 3 times.

He makes a lot of conclusions that fall in the correlation not causation category.

It is interesting how he explained that he created his wealth as an investor but in the next segment says the only certain way to do it is to have a rich dad.

And finally, it appears he is flat out factually wrong about some things. He claimed the UK had more growth in the 50s, 60s and 70# when the government owned more. Per this data that does not appear to be correct.




This graph does actually confirm that the growth rate is slowing down over time, because a constant growth rate would have resulted in geometric growth, not linear.

A liberal arts guy is over his skis with this so help me out… but there was linear growth during the 50s, 60 and 70s too, so the graph still disproves the original claim just in a different way, right (ie, there wasn't 'extra growth' during the government ownership years)?


UK GDP growth in the 70s declined, that's why cumulative growth (or the nominal GDP) is linear.

Contrast the UK GDP graph above with the US below, the geometric nature and is more clear because growth in the last few decades is higher than that of the UK:




Differences in the two graphs for the X axis (time) and Y axis (money) makes a meaningful comparison difficult or at least complicated and somewhat subjective.
BearlySane88
How long do you want to ignore this user?
cal83dls79 said:

movielover said:

My understanding is that 20K millionaires left the UK last year; and if the UK were a US state, it's average income would rank it 51st. Take out London, and it's even worse. Meanwhile, they're importing hundreds of thousands of illiterate immigrants yearly to massively expand the welfare rolls.
I'm sure with the new posting rules that this will get full fact checking and validation


My understanding is that 20K millionaires left the UK last year:
The widely cited Henley & Partners / New World Wealth report projected a net loss of about 16,500 millionaires in 2025, the largest net millionaire outflow of any country that year.

if the UK were a US state, it's average income would rank it 51st:
This claim has circulated widely and is based on comparing GDP or income per capita between the UK and U.S. states at market exchange rates. On that particular metric, the UK does indeed come out below every U.S. state, including Mississippi, in some recent comparisons.

Take out London, and it's even worse:
Most regions outside London have noticeably lower productivity and incomes than London itself, so excluding London reduces the UK's average economic output further

The rest is an opinion on why the UK is allowing high levels of immigration, not really fact checkable.
Cal88
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Yes the longer the period, the clearer the geometric/nonlinear nature of the curve.

But a linear GDP curve is indicative of a steady decline in the rate of GDP growth, which is confirmed here:

cal83dls79
How long do you want to ignore this user?
BearlySane88 said:

cal83dls79 said:

movielover said:

My understanding is that 20K millionaires left the UK last year; and if the UK were a US state, it's average income would rank it 51st. Take out London, and it's even worse. Meanwhile, they're importing hundreds of thousands of illiterate immigrants yearly to massively expand the welfare rolls.
I'm sure with the new posting rules that this will get full fact checking and validation


My understanding is that 20K millionaires left the UK last year:
The widely cited Henley & Partners / New World Wealth report projected a net loss of about 16,500 millionaires in 2025, the largest net millionaire outflow of any country that year.

if the UK were a US state, it's average income would rank it 51st:
This claim has circulated widely and is based on comparing GDP or income per capita between the UK and U.S. states at market exchange rates. On that particular metric, the UK does indeed come out below every U.S. state, including Mississippi, in some recent comparisons.

Take out London, and it's even worse:
Most regions outside London have noticeably lower productivity and incomes than London itself, so excluding London reduces the UK's average economic output further

The rest is an opinion on why the UK is allowing high levels of immigration, not really fact checkable.
you have a lot of research ahead of you. Are you sure you want to do this?
Priest of the Patty Hearst Shrine
GrinandBearit
How long do you want to ignore this user?
cal83dls79 said:

movielover said:

My understanding is that 20K millionaires left the UK last year; and if the UK were a US state, it's average income would rank it 51st. Take out London, and it's even worse. Meanwhile, they're importing hundreds of thousands of illiterate immigrants yearly to massively expand the welfare rolls.

I'm sure with the new posting rules that this will get full fact checking and validation

This is in direct violation of the new board rules.

Rule 1: This is a personal attack which includes cute attempts to insult someone without being explicit.

Cal88
How long do you want to ignore this user?
BearlySane88 said:

cal83dls79 said:

movielover said:

My understanding is that 20K millionaires left the UK last year; and if the UK were a US state, it's average income would rank it 51st. Take out London, and it's even worse. Meanwhile, they're importing hundreds of thousands of illiterate immigrants yearly to massively expand the welfare rolls.

I'm sure with the new posting rules that this will get full fact checking and validation


My understanding is that 20K millionaires left the UK last year:
The widely cited Henley & Partners / New World Wealth report projected a net loss of about 16,500 millionaires in 2025, the largest net millionaire outflow of any country that year.

if the UK were a US state, it's average income would rank it 51st:
This claim has circulated widely and is based on comparing GDP or income per capita between the UK and U.S. states at market exchange rates. On that particular metric, the UK does indeed come out below every U.S. state, including Mississippi, in some recent comparisons.


Take out London, and it's even worse:
Most regions outside London have noticeably lower productivity and incomes than London itself, so excluding London reduces the UK's average economic output further

The rest is an opinion on why the UK is allowing high levels of immigration, not really fact checkable.


You have to be careful using average incomes and average wealth when comparing countries, because in the US the values at the very top are much higher, which skews the average higher. I would use medians instead.

For instance, the US ranks near the top of the world in average wealth, but median wealth in the US is not even in the top 25:



As well when you compare salaries and wealth between the US and other western countries, it does not account for the very high difference in the cost of healthcare, education etc.
cal83dls79
How long do you want to ignore this user?
GrinandBearit said:

cal83dls79 said:

movielover said:

My understanding is that 20K millionaires left the UK last year; and if the UK were a US state, it's average income would rank it 51st. Take out London, and it's even worse. Meanwhile, they're importing hundreds of thousands of illiterate immigrants yearly to massively expand the welfare rolls.

I'm sure with the new posting rules that this will get full fact checking and validation

This is in direct violation of the new board rules.

Rule 1: This is a personal attack which includes cute attempts to insult someone without being explicit.


so inquiry about enforcing the new rules is in fact breaking the rules? Signed, never been suspended.

*id be more concerned about people's interpretation of these graphs
Priest of the Patty Hearst Shrine
BearlySane88
How long do you want to ignore this user?
cal83dls79 said:

BearlySane88 said:

cal83dls79 said:

movielover said:

My understanding is that 20K millionaires left the UK last year; and if the UK were a US state, it's average income would rank it 51st. Take out London, and it's even worse. Meanwhile, they're importing hundreds of thousands of illiterate immigrants yearly to massively expand the welfare rolls.
I'm sure with the new posting rules that this will get full fact checking and validation


My understanding is that 20K millionaires left the UK last year:
The widely cited Henley & Partners / New World Wealth report projected a net loss of about 16,500 millionaires in 2025, the largest net millionaire outflow of any country that year.

if the UK were a US state, it's average income would rank it 51st:
This claim has circulated widely and is based on comparing GDP or income per capita between the UK and U.S. states at market exchange rates. On that particular metric, the UK does indeed come out below every U.S. state, including Mississippi, in some recent comparisons.

Take out London, and it's even worse:
Most regions outside London have noticeably lower productivity and incomes than London itself, so excluding London reduces the UK's average economic output further

The rest is an opinion on why the UK is allowing high levels of immigration, not really fact checkable.
you have a lot of research ahead of you. Are you sure you want to do this?


I put it into ChatGPT to show that movie was pretty much on point with his facts. Any other research you are welcome to do and share with the group.
GrinandBearit
How long do you want to ignore this user?
cal83dls79 said:

GrinandBearit said:

cal83dls79 said:

movielover said:

My understanding is that 20K millionaires left the UK last year; and if the UK were a US state, it's average income would rank it 51st. Take out London, and it's even worse. Meanwhile, they're importing hundreds of thousands of illiterate immigrants yearly to massively expand the welfare rolls.

I'm sure with the new posting rules that this will get full fact checking and validation

This is in direct violation of the new board rules.

Rule 1: This is a personal attack which includes cute attempts to insult someone without being explicit.



so inquiry about enforcing the new rules is in fact breaking the rules? Signed, never been suspended.

Where was the inquiry? You made a statement meant to troll Movielover, as you all do regularly, about the validity of what he posts. You didn't post this on anyone else's post but Movies' for a specific reason.
BearlySane88
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Cool chart. Of course, all data is malleable depending on the way you use it or frame it. I stated what metric was being used, fully aware there are other metrics that can be used also.
cal83dls79
How long do you want to ignore this user?
BearlySane88 said:

cal83dls79 said:

BearlySane88 said:

cal83dls79 said:

movielover said:

My understanding is that 20K millionaires left the UK last year; and if the UK were a US state, it's average income would rank it 51st. Take out London, and it's even worse. Meanwhile, they're importing hundreds of thousands of illiterate immigrants yearly to massively expand the welfare rolls.
I'm sure with the new posting rules that this will get full fact checking and validation


My understanding is that 20K millionaires left the UK last year:
The widely cited Henley & Partners / New World Wealth report projected a net loss of about 16,500 millionaires in 2025, the largest net millionaire outflow of any country that year.

if the UK were a US state, it's average income would rank it 51st:
This claim has circulated widely and is based on comparing GDP or income per capita between the UK and U.S. states at market exchange rates. On that particular metric, the UK does indeed come out below every U.S. state, including Mississippi, in some recent comparisons.

Take out London, and it's even worse:
Most regions outside London have noticeably lower productivity and incomes than London itself, so excluding London reduces the UK's average economic output further

The rest is an opinion on why the UK is allowing high levels of immigration, not really fact checkable.
you have a lot of research ahead of you. Are you sure you want to do this?


I put it into ChatGPT to show that movie was pretty much on point with his facts. Any other research you are welcome to do and share with the group.
this was the bit that I was interested in:

"Meanwhile, they're importing hundreds of thousands of illiterate immigrants yearly to massively expand the welfare rolls"
Priest of the Patty Hearst Shrine
oski003
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Fyi, for those wondering...

In Alabama, the average household income is approximately $88,898, while the median household income stands at $63,999. The UKs numbers are near $40K.

Also, around 813,000 people immigrate to the UK each year.
tequila4kapp
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Now factor in local, federal and VAT taxes.
dajo9
How long do you want to ignore this user?
oski003 said:

Fyi, for those wondering...

In Alabama, the average household income is approximately $88,898, while the median household income stands at $63,999. The UKs numbers are near $40K.

Also, around 813,000 people immigrate to the UK each year.

The comparison is not exactly apples to apples. In the UK the government / employer pays for healthcare and retirement pension. They also get 28 paid vacation days.
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.