BREAKING: SpaceX, $SPCX, officially surpasses Microsoft to become the 4th largest public company in the world, now worth $2.95 trillion. pic.twitter.com/wKWPkrLtLu

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 16, 2026

SpaceX current price = $155
Up 15% from the IPO
Down 29% from the high of $219

Looks like the institutional buyers are up and the retail investors are getting crushed. Early investors of SpaceX will be allowed to sell some shares in a little over a month.

Got added to the Nasdaq-100 yesterday on the close.
$800 Billion of index buying.

Inititial index weight will be less than 1%

Got hammered down to $149 today after the buying.

concordtom said:

---

IPO price was set after the market closed on Thursday, June 11 at $135/share. This is the price paid by IPO participants, including institutional investors and any insiders or existing shareholders who were allocated shares in the offering.

* The stock began trading on Nasdaq under ticker SPCX on Friday morning, June 12.
* The opening trade (first tick) was $150/share.


* First-day high: about $175-176 per share.

* First-day close: $160.95 per share, up about 19% from the IPO price.

Monday, 2nd day of public trading =
Low 168.36
Hi 192.95
Close 192.5

---

Friday July 31 close: 108.37
That's down 19.7% from the insider IPO.
Or down 27.7% from first exchange "tick".
Or down 32.6% from the first day close.
Or down 51.97% from all time high of 225.64.

I guess by now lots of insiders have already been able to get out.

Based on the IPO filings, only about 5% of SpaceX's total equity was initially released as freely tradable public shares.



SpaceX adopted an unusual, staggered lockup schedule instead of the traditional single 180-day lockup. The goal was to avoid a massive one-day flood of insider selling.

The schedule is roughly:

* After Q2 2026 earnings (August 4, 2026): Up to 20% of eligible locked shares become saleable.
* 70 days after the IPO: About 7% more unlocks. (August 21)
* 90 days: Another ~7%. (September 10)
* 105 days: Another ~7%. (September 25)
* 120 days: Another ~7%. (October 12)
* 135 days: Another ~7%. (October 26)
* After Q3 2026 earnings: An additional 28% becomes eligible. (Early November)
* 180 days (December 8, 2026): All remaining shares subject to the standard lockup become freely tradable.

There was also a performance-based provision:

* If the stock traded 30% above the $135 IPO price (about $175.50) under specified conditions, an additional ~10% of locked shares could be released early.

Elon Musk's lockup

Musk agreed to a much longer restriction:

* 366-day lockup, ending around June 12, 2027.
* His shares are not eligible for the early staggered release program.

Because only about 5% of the company was initially tradable, each unlock meaningfully increases the public float. Investors are watching these dates closely because they can increase selling pressure if many employees or early investors choose to realize gains.


Under the IPO prospectus, the first tranche becomes eligible for sale on or after the second full Nasdaq trading day following the earnings release, which means Thursday, August 6 is the earliest those shares can be sold.

Given the unusually small initial public float (about 5%), both the earnings report and the Aug. 6 unlock could have a significant effect on the stock price.

OdontoBear66 said:

---

Bot some at the open at a high price....Limited shares just to own in my wife's IRA....Gave tons of rah-kah to the kids and grandkids that grandma is more with it than them...Lost 10/share first day but she's looking good now...Bot a bit more today...Elevator drop and bye bye....All fun at our age.

Bettin' on the man. He is brilliant and SPCX will do just fine.

---

SpaceX down about 44% from the day of this post and down about 28% from it's entry into NASDAQ. The insiders will be making bank but not as much as they hoped. The initial tranche of shares can be sold after earnings are released in August.

DiabloWags said:

---

Got added to the Nasdaq-100 yesterday on the close.
$800 Billion of index buying.

Inititial index weight will be less than 1%

Got hammered down to $149 today after the buying.

---

In my experience as an index fund manager, it was incredibly early to add a new stock to a major index. I thought they used to have to have a track record.

So I checked.

Nasdaq100
Old IPO rule: 310 months seasoning
New fasttrack rule: 15 trading days

S&P 500
Old IPO rule: 12 months trading + profitability
New fasttrack rule: Immediate eligibility.
Despite their rule change, S&P HAS NOT YET ADDED SpaceX.

Russell 1000/3000
Old IPO rule: Annual June reconstitution only
New fasttrack rule: 5 trading days.
SpaceX's IPO landed just before the June cutoff, so it was automatically swept into the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 during the annual reconstitution.


So, forced buying occurred on these days, but otherwise it's been Down Down Down. And more shares available for sale are being released soon. THIS IS STRUCTURALLY NOT A GOOD STORY!!

IPO date: June 12, 2026
Nasdaq100 Inclusion July 7
Russell 1000/3000 inclusion June 28

concordtom said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

Got added to the Nasdaq-100 yesterday on the close.
$800 Billion of index buying.

Inititial index weight will be less than 1%

Got hammered down to $149 today after the buying.

---

In my experience as an index fund manager, it was incredibly early to add a new stock to a major index. I thought they used to have to have a track record.

So I checked.

Nasdaq100
Old IPO rule: 310 months seasoning
New fasttrack rule: 15 trading days

S&P 500
Old IPO rule: 12 months trading + profitability
New fasttrack rule: Immediate eligibility

Russell 1000/3000
Old IPO rule: Annual June reconstitution only
New fasttrack rule: 5 trading days

---

It's all about what's good for the companies and rich owners now.

Index fund manager sounds like a good job. Good money, less stress than your average Wall Street job?

dajo9 said:

---

concordtom said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

Got added to the Nasdaq-100 yesterday on the close.
$800 Billion of index buying.

Inititial index weight will be less than 1%

Got hammered down to $149 today after the buying.

---

In my experience as an index fund manager, it was incredibly early to add a new stock to a major index. I thought they used to have to have a track record.

So I checked.

Nasdaq100
Old IPO rule: 310 months seasoning
New fasttrack rule: 15 trading days

S&P 500
Old IPO rule: 12 months trading + profitability
New fasttrack rule: Immediate eligibility

Russell 1000/3000
Old IPO rule: Annual June reconstitution only
New fasttrack rule: 5 trading days

---

It's all about what's good for the companies and rich owners now.

---

Rules bend under pressure these days, at least more than ever.

In the old days, there were Alexander Butterfield, or a Barry Goldwater. People who were willing say no to power.

Rosa Parks.
Tank Man.
Gandhi salt march.

These days, Trump persecutes in court, ICE shoots, and money bends ALL of Wall Street!

That gleaming City Upon a Hill is not so shiny.

Note: Tank man was never identified, nor ever seen again.

concordtom said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

concordtom said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

Got added to the Nasdaq-100 yesterday on the close.
$800 Billion of index buying.

Inititial index weight will be less than 1%

Got hammered down to $149 today after the buying.

---

In my experience as an index fund manager, it was incredibly early to add a new stock to a major index. I thought they used to have to have a track record.

So I checked.

Nasdaq100
Old IPO rule: 310 months seasoning
New fasttrack rule: 15 trading days

S&P 500
Old IPO rule: 12 months trading + profitability
New fasttrack rule: Immediate eligibility

Russell 1000/3000
Old IPO rule: Annual June reconstitution only
New fasttrack rule: 5 trading days

---

It's all about what's good for the companies and rich owners now.

---

Rules bend under pressure these days, at least more than ever.

In the old days, there were Alexander Butterfield, or a Barry Goldwater. People who were willing say no to power.

Rosa Parks.
Tank Man.
Gandhi salt march.

These days, Trump persecutes in court, ICE shoots, and money bends ALL of Wall Street!

That gleaming City Upon a Hill is not so shiny.

Note: Tank man was never identified, nor ever seen again.

---

RFK Sr.
John L. McClellan

Tank Man is as dead as Mitch McConnell

dajo9 said:

---

Tank Man is as dead as Mitch McConnell

---

That leaves room for tank man to be eating grubs in a dark cell somewhere.

SPCX Earning were released after the close today. The stock was up 9% during the day, and though earnings beat consensus, the stock fell 7% in first hour of after-hours trading.


SpaceX (SPCX) reported its first-ever quarterly earnings since going public, beating Wall Street expectations with a 92% surge in revenue to $7.8 billion. Despite the revenue jump, heavy AI investments led to a $541 million net loss.

SpaceX outperformed consensus estimates across major financial metrics for Q2 2026, driven heavily by its connectivity and artificial intelligence segments.

Metric - Q2 2026 Actual - Wall Street Consensus
* Revenue - $7.80 billion - $6.83 billion
*Net Loss - $541 million - Over $1.2 billion
*Loss Per Share (EPS) - $0.09 - $0.23
*Adjusted EBITDA - $3.54 billion - $2.10 billion


Segment Performance & Growth Drivers

According to updates from The Wall Street Journal and MarketWatch, growth accelerated across all primary business divisions:
Connectivity (Starlink): Generated $4.29 billion in revenue, up 66% year-over-year. The satellite internet business surpassed 12 million subscribers, doubling its subscriber base compared to the same period in 2025.

Space Segment: Recorded $962 million in revenue (a 29% increase) but registered an operating loss of $542 million due to elevated R&D spending on the Starship platform.

SpaceXAI: Turned profitable ahead of schedule, logging $1.6 billion in revenue and positive adjusted EBITDA of $1.14 billion thanks to substantial compute-rental agreements with Anthropic and Google.

AI Infrastructure Spending
The biggest point of focus for investors was the company's aggressive capital expenditures. Total capex climbed to $18.4 billion for the quarter, far exceeding Wall Street's $13.2 billion forecast. An overwhelming $15.8 billion of that capital was specifically funneled into expanding computing capacity and cloud service infrastructure for its AI division.

Stock Reaction & Lock-up Expiration
Although the financial results beat top- and bottom-line expectations, the massive surge in AI spending unnerved investors. According to live tracking by Bloomberg, SPCX shares fell roughly 7% to 8% in after-hours trading following the announcement.

The stock also faces an upcoming technical hurdle: on Thursday, August 6, a partial lock-up provision will expire, making roughly 911.5 million employee and early-investor shares eligible for sale on the open market.

SpaceX (SPCX) stock fell 7.15% to $116.37 per share during extended after-hours trading, entirely reversing the 9.43% gain achieved during Tuesday's regular session.

Why the Stock Reversed Lower
While the stock briefly ticked up immediately following the headline earnings beat, sentiment quickly soured during the investor call as participants weighed structural headwinds against the short-term numbers:
Massive Capital Burn Strategy: Investors reacted negatively to a $18.37 billion quarterly capex layout, primarily a $15.8 billion build-out of the Colossus II AI supercomputing cluster, which stoked fears that infrastructure costs will continue to severely depress free cash flow.

Imminent Float Supply Shock: Traders utilized the positive earnings print as a liquidity window to exit positions ahead of a massive 911.5 million share lock-up expiration on Thursday, August 6. This milestone releases an influx of shares equal to 1.4 times the current public float onto the open market.

SpaceX down 12% following yesterday's earnings reports.i look forward to the release of more insider shares available on the sell side tomorrow! Elevator down? Lol.

I couldn't believe someone on cbnc after market close yesterday said he thinks that will be a buying time…. Like the stock will go UP.

Uh, how does he figure?
The only way that could happen is if everyone is anticipating they sell, and they don't, and once the market realizes there is not going to be a great flood of sell volume there is euphoria.

Crazy logic, and I've been wrong before!!

Well, this certainly wasn't NSCP ipo.

A SpaceX rocket collided with the moon. Here's what to know

https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/04/science/spacex-rocket-moon-impact