Kavanaugh hearings change minds?

B.A. Bearacus
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Nate Silver:
  • The GOP's least-worst outcome, politically, is probably if Kavanaugh withdraws in advance of the hearing and it sounds like that's what McConnell would really prefer if he had the choice.
  • The predicate is that time is precious for the GOP. If Kavanaugh were to withdraw *now*, they just *might* have enough time to confirm someone else before the midterm, or at least establish a foothold for the new nominee before the lame-duck session.
  • But probably not if Kavanaugh flails around for 2 weeks and *then* is forced to withdraw. I also think expecting to confirm someone in the lame duck session could be hard *if* Democrats win the Senate (~33% chance) and the new nominee hasn't established that foothold pre-Nov. 6.
  • p.s. If there's a replacement nominee, he or she is likely to be fairly unpopular. Kavanaugh was pretty unpopular even before the allegations came out and the public is just gonna be skeptical of almost any GOP nominee under these circumstances.
  • But it's for precisely that reason that the rollout of the new nominee would need to be managed carefully, and sooner rather than later, rather than looking like some last-minute replacement understudy after Kavanaugh collapsed under his own weight.
prospeCt
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https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-the-weekly-standard-played-facebook-and-screwed-think-progress

https://m.newstimes.com/technology/businessinsider/article/Mark-Judge-Meet-Brett-Kavanaugh-s-high-school-13236884.php

https://www.forbes.com/sites/theyec/2018/09/14/silicon-valley-has-lost-touch-with-americas-workforce/

wifeisafurd
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BearChemist said:

WH can drag this out, go through all the hearing, and risk Kavanaugh doesn't get confirmed.

WH can withdraw his nomination soon. Since other candidates have been vetted (not as extensively but you can always withhold 3 zillion documents citing privilege), there is enough time to ram through another nomination before the new Senate comes in in January.


Silver probably is right. Dump BK if the votes are not there right now, and get one of the other finalists who was vetted, my guess is the woman, Barrett.
wifeisafurd
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prospeCt said:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-the-weekly-standard-played-facebook-and-screwed-think-progress

https://m.newstimes.com/technology/businessinsider/article/Mark-Judge-Meet-Brett-Kavanaugh-s-high-school-13236884.php

https://www.forbes.com/sites/theyec/2018/09/14/silicon-valley-has-lost-touch-with-americas-workforce/


Why does Facebook have to tell us what is true or not based on some glorified media jury? Why don't they do a better job of telling us who is saying what and let us decide accordingly?
Another Bear
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B.A. Bearacus said:

Nate Silver:
  • The GOP's least-worst outcome, politically, is probably if Kavanaugh withdraws in advance of the hearing and it sounds like that's what McConnell would really prefer if he had the choice.
  • The predicate is that time is precious for the GOP. If Kavanaugh were to withdraw *now*, they just *might* have enough time to confirm someone else before the midterm, or at least establish a foothold for the new nominee before the lame-duck session.
  • But probably not if Kavanaugh flails around for 2 weeks and *then* is forced to withdraw. I also think expecting to confirm someone in the lame duck session could be hard *if* Democrats win the Senate (~33% chance) and the new nominee hasn't established that foothold pre-Nov. 6.
  • p.s. If there's a replacement nominee, he or she is likely to be fairly unpopular. Kavanaugh was pretty unpopular even before the allegations came out and the public is just gonna be skeptical of almost any GOP nominee under these circumstances.
  • But it's for precisely that reason that the rollout of the new nominee would need to be managed carefully, and sooner rather than later, rather than looking like some last-minute replacement understudy after Kavanaugh collapsed under his own weight.

All this makes sense. The question might be if the Trump admin is competent enough to pull off a fast transition, smoothly or timely.

I have to say, Brett having his hump buddy and drunken wingman in the room while he assaulted Mrs. Ford looks really, really bad. It appears more asinine and especially misogynistic. My guess however, after reading. about Mr. Judge, Kavanaugh's instinct is to fight it...beat down the wench one more time so to speak.
bearister
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If couple of mock cross examination sessions go bad or some new unfavorable facts turn up, look for this standard play before Monday:

"For the good of my family, I am withdrawing my name from consideration as a justice of the SCOTUS. I refuse to submit my family to this travesty of a mockery of a sham of a mockery of a travesty of two mockeries of a sham."

(Thank you Woody Allen)
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sycasey
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Right now, I'd say it's a better than 50% chance Kavanaugh gets pulled.
Another Bear
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Daily Beast reporting the GOP are all in on Kavanaugh. That they will not pull his nomination. I think it's going to blow up in their faces.
bearister
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Something Fox News will never report about Cory Booker:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2018/09/21/in-1992-cory-booker-admitted-to-groping-a-high-school-classmate-and-issued-a-call-for-sexual-respect/
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bearister
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prospeCt
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ducky23
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bearister said:






Now it's coming out that Whelan was looking at ford's LinkedIn page before her name became public but 90 mins after the WH knew her name, according to the Post.

So that's why the republicans didn't want a delay. Watching the republicans is like watching cal sports, it's only a matter of time before they start cooging it. Can't wait to find out what stupid thing som republican will say tomorrow.
bearister
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prospeCt said:








Mick Taylor was 20 when he joined the Stones:




...and 25 when he left. The band immediately went from A+ to B-.

He is 69 years old. Rock is a hard life. Hey, he kept his hair and his skills. Two out of three ain't bad.



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Another Bear
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A WH leak to Whelan warrants an investigation. And how stupid is Whelan doing the search with his account. D'oh! The incompetence of the GOP is staggering.

Mean while Susan Collins is saying delay the vote so Ford can testify.
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