Nate Silver:
- The GOP's least-worst outcome, politically, is probably if Kavanaugh withdraws in advance of the hearing and it sounds like that's what McConnell would really prefer if he had the choice.
- The predicate is that time is precious for the GOP. If Kavanaugh were to withdraw *now*, they just *might* have enough time to confirm someone else before the midterm, or at least establish a foothold for the new nominee before the lame-duck session.
- But probably not if Kavanaugh flails around for 2 weeks and *then* is forced to withdraw. I also think expecting to confirm someone in the lame duck session could be hard *if* Democrats win the Senate (~33% chance) and the new nominee hasn't established that foothold pre-Nov. 6.
- p.s. If there's a replacement nominee, he or she is likely to be fairly unpopular. Kavanaugh was pretty unpopular even before the allegations came out and the public is just gonna be skeptical of almost any GOP nominee under these circumstances.
- But it's for precisely that reason that the rollout of the new nominee would need to be managed carefully, and sooner rather than later, rather than looking like some last-minute replacement understudy after Kavanaugh collapsed under his own weight.