Because of the Rohrabacher and Issa districts flipping (both already called), the GOP Congressional delegation will now have zero coastline in California.



Democrats almost have the entire continental west coast, except for one district in Washington.

By the way, I think despite what WIAF said previously, that the loss of republican house seats in California likely did relate to frustration from wealthy California republicans at incumbents for allowing the Trump tax increases. It was a redistribution of wealth from blue states to red states and goes against a lot of what republicans believe in. On the one hand, I'm happy that California republican representatives got the shaft for allowing that travesty, but on the other hand it will give California even less voice in the republican party which will make Trump and the senate double down on their persecution of California. Fortunately we have the house right now as a bulwark but I don't think we will ever be able to fix the tax debacle.

Unit2Sucks said:

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By the way, I think despite what WIAF said previously, that the loss of republican house seats in California likely did relate to frustration from wealthy California republicans at incumbents for allowing the Trump tax increases. It was a redistribution of wealth from blue states to red states and goes against a lot of what republicans believe in. On the one hand, I'm happy that California republican representatives got the shaft for allowing that travesty, but on the other hand it will give California even less voice in the republican party which will make Trump and the senate double down on their persecution of California. Fortunately we have the house right now as a bulwark but I don't think we will ever be able to fix the tax debacle.

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Republicans definitely got creamed in the states where the loss of the SALT deduction was very relevant: CA, NJ, PA, NY.

Read something the other day, the whole continental West Coast is blue except for 38 miles in Washington.

Any way, the Blue Wave is real.

NPR: It Was A Big, Blue Wave: Democrats Pick Up Most House Seats In A Generation

Here's one way to look at the Blue Wave. From this perspective, it looks a lot like the tea party movement in 2010 except hopefully it's not bat**** crazy people this time.

Yeah, Silver makes a good point there. Lost in the 2016 election (with Trump sucking up all the oxygen as he always does) was the fact that Democrats actually gained 6 House seats that year. Meant they didn't have as many seats to flip in 2018 as Republicans did in 2010.

CA39 probably flips tomorrow.

Dems pick up another.

So with Maine 2 going blue, the Dems are at +35 (230 total) I think?

Of the remaining outstanding ones, I think the following go blue as well:
* CA-45 (Dem Katie Porter leads incumbent Rep. Mimi Walters by 3.5k votes right now and trending up)
* CA-39 (Dem Gil Cisneros behind by just 122 votes and trending up, though I admit, I do think his opponent Young Kim has an impressive background/life path)
* NY-22 (not sure about this one, but Dem. Brindisi leads incumbent Rep. Tenney by about 1.3k votes right now)

Probably going red:
* CA-21 (Basically Fresno, race called for Rep. incumbent Valadao already but he only leads by 2k... will probably hang on though not a sure thing).
* Utah-4 (will probably go red for Rep. incumbent Mia Love even though Dem. McAdams leads slightly right now by less than 1k. Late ballots trending Republican. Which is totally a sign of unethical cheating Republicans and we should totally stop counting votes!!! Just kidding, no serious Democrat would say that).
* Georgia-7 (Rep. incumbent Woodall leads by less than 1k over Dem. Bourdeaux, and will probably hang on).
* NY-27 (Rep. incumbent Chris Collins, ugh, leads by nearly 3k over Dem Nate McMurray and will almost certainly hang on).
* TX-23 (incumbent Rep. Will Hurd leads by just over 1k votes over Dem. Gina Ortiz Jones and will probably hang on).

Not sure if I am forgetting any others. But I think the end result of the above would be Democrats at +38, 233 total in the House.

Fivethirtyeight.com's prediction is now up from Dem +38 to Dem +39 so I'm not sure which prediction(s) above they would make differently - maybe Utah-4.

OneKeg said:

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Fivethirtyeight.com's prediction is now up from Dem +38 to Dem +39 so I'm not sure which prediction(s) above they would make differently - maybe Utah-4.

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My guess is they're thinking one of those five probable R seats goes blue. Decent chance in UT-4 or CA-21, since there are so many ballots left to count.

As I understand it in Utah, there's a big question about the provisional ballots remaining in Salt Lake. Some analysts suspect that they are mostly new voters who registered same-day and would likely lean blue. Love's (R) campaign has sued to gain greater oversight over these ballots, which indicates they see them as a threat.

It will be either a 38 or 39 seat gain, best Democratic gain since Watergate.

Maine 2 goes blue... Republicans no longer have a single House seat in New England

This is a pretty big deal when you think about it, old school moderate NE GOP dying off. Of course Maine had Wing Nut Paul LePage as gov and that likely drove much of the voting. Governor went Dem and I think they may have flipped their legislative body too.

And boom goes the dynamite.

That Cisneros lead isn't going away. Democrats have flipped all of Orange County.

*cough*

sycasey said:

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I also think Republicans in almost all the close House races in California lose. The O.C. is flipping blue (and let's also throw in Jeff Denham's district in Modesto). The Central Valley remains solidly red, though the margins will be closer than usual.

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Bump

A quick peek back at Arizona: https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

Of course (D) Kyrsten Sinema is winning the Senate seat comfortably now (margin almost 50k votes and north of 2%) over (R) Martha McSally.

But also down-ticket, note that Arizona has no Lieutenant Governor. So the Secretary of State is (and will be) the second executive in the state behind Governor-elect (R) Doug Ducey. Of course Secretary of State also handles the elections.

For the AZ Secretary of State race, (D) Katie Hobbs had been tens of thousands of votes behind (R) Steve Gaynor, but has gradually caught up as mail-in ballots were counted and has now taken a 13k vote lead.

So it may have the effect of "pinning" Governor-elect Ducey down in place since Hobbs (if she wins) would effectively replace Ducey if he stepped down to run for McCain's old Arizona Senate seat in 2020 (currently filled by interim Republican Jon Kyl). So Republicans will have to come up with another candidate for Senate in 2020 - perhaps Martha McSally who just lost to Sinema for the other AZ Senate seat.

And just sayin... the AZ Secretary of State position could be important for Nov. 2020 if Arizona goes purple and accusations and lawsuits are flying. Far-fetched, I know...

ps. Dems apparently also really improving the AQI in the OC.

John Wayne, John Birch and Ronald Reagan are rolling over in their graves...rotating LEFT as it were.

Democrats bat 1.000 in the 6 districts they target. It was about healthcare repeal and taxes that screwed most. GOP massively misplayed hand. Trump pushed more to vote.

RIP, California GOP: Republicans lash out after midterm election debacle https://politi.co/2Be6ogX via @politico

Early Christmas present for y'all. Somewhat reminiscent of articles about the Dems after the Trump election (when R's controlled all branches of the federal government). I readily admit that the posters that understood the after election day counts knew their stuff.

Also, I'm making a prediction that Porter losses her seat next election, but that the Dems otherwise hold the OC if they retain moderate candidates like Rouda (he actually changed party affiliation right before announcing his candidacy, reflecting his dissatisfaction with Trump).

IMO the GOP can't recover in CA until Trump is gone. With him around the Republican brand is too toxic in this state.

California tends to be the bellwether, though, so I do think that when a new, more moderate brand of conservatism arises it will also happen here. Moderation is the only way Republicans will be able to capture Millennials. It won't happen with Trump at the top.

wifeisafurd said:

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RIP, California GOP: Republicans lash out after midterm election debacle https://politi.co/2Be6ogX via @politico

Early Christmas present for y'all. Somewhat reminiscent of articles about the Dems after the Trump election (when R's controlled all branches of the federal government). I readily admit that the posters that understood the after election day counts knew their stuff.

Also, I'm making a prediction that Porter losses her seat next election, but that the Dems otherwise hold the OC if they retain moderate candidates like Rouda (he actually changed party affiliation right before announcing his candidacy, reflecting his dissatisfaction with Trump).

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Agree, 1-2 seats could flip back to a moderate GOP but I think overall OC has turned blue. And yes, Rouda is basically a moderate, economic GOP, never-Trump type. He's a newer generation than Rohrabacher, Cold War Warrior turned Putin's buddy. The guy who won CA 49, Levin, he's a traditional Dem. and SD is more conservative than OC. That's more of an indication of the change.

sycasey said:

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IMO the GOP can't recover in CA until Trump is gone. With him around the Republican brand is too toxic in this state.

California tends to be the bellwether, though, so I do think that when a new, more moderate brand of conservatism arises it will also happen here. Moderation is the only way Republicans will be able to capture Millennials. It won't happen with Trump at the top.

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As California goes...so goes the nation. It's going to take 20 years but the rest of the country will likely follow. The biggie to watch is Texas. Despite Beto losing, the Democrats in Texas did very well.

I don't think moderation will help the GOP with millennials. Being able to govern, create polity, implement infrastructure is what will get votes...although moderation does suggest playing ball on those issues. However as long as the Wing Nut wing of the GOP is still alive, there will be tensions that could be too much (see Trump, educated voters fleeing). So agree, they have to kill off Trumpism.

Another Bear said:

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wifeisafurd said:

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RIP, California GOP: Republicans lash out after midterm election debacle https://politi.co/2Be6ogX via @politico

Early Christmas present for y'all. Somewhat reminiscent of articles about the Dems after the Trump election (when R's controlled all branches of the federal government). I readily admit that the posters that understood the after election day counts knew their stuff.

Also, I'm making a prediction that Porter losses her seat next election, but that the Dems otherwise hold the OC if they retain moderate candidates like Rouda (he actually changed party affiliation right before announcing his candidacy, reflecting his dissatisfaction with Trump).

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Agree, 1-2 seats could flip back to a moderate GOP but I think overall OC has turned blue. And yes, Rouda is basically a moderate, economic GOP, never-Trump type. He's a newer generation than Rohrabacher, Cold War Warrior turned Putin's buddy. The guy who won CA 49, Levin, he's a traditional Dem. and SD is more conservative than OC. That's more of an indication of the change.

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Levin has a good district for a traditional Dem. The SC coast is somewhat liberal and he should do well there. Same with Rouda - good fit in a District than no longer fits the cold warrior image. Porter just seems like a less good fit for her District and thus my prediction - though a couple more years off Trump dumping on California you never know.

Making it official . . . the last O.C. domino falls.

Another Bear said:

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I don't think moderation will help the GOP with millennials. Being able to govern, create polity, implement infrastructure is what will get votes...although moderation does suggest playing ball on those issues. However as long as the Wing Nut wing of the GOP is still alive, there will be tensions that could be too much (see Trump, educated voters fleeing). So agree, they have to kill off Trumpism.

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Yeah, that is what I mean by moderation. A Republican who actually ran on those things could win Millennials, IMO. (As opposed to Trump's administration laughably claiming next week is "infrastructure week" and then doing nothing about it.

Trump's xenophobia and name-calling isn't going to win over young people who are perfectly comfortable with living in a diverse country. All he had going for him in 2016 was that they didn't care much for Hillary either.

"With their grip on power set to loosen come January, Republicans in several states are considering last-ditch laws that would weaken existing or incoming Democratic governors and advance their own conservative agendas," AP's David Eggert reports from Lansing, Mich.:

"In Michigan, ... Republican legislators want to water down a minimum wage law they approved before the election so that it would not go to voters and would now be easier to amend."
"Republicans in neighboring Wisconsin are discussing ways to dilute Democrat Tony Evers' power before he takes over for GOP Gov. Scott Walker."
"And in North Carolina, Republicans may try to hash out the requirements of a new voter ID constitutional amendment before they lose their legislative supermajorities and their ability to unilaterally override vetoes by Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper." Axios

This would be consistent with the overarching conservative belief of subverting democracy whenever it does not suit you.

Republican strategy seems to be 100% geared towards short-term goals. In the long term it's not a good idea to keep trying to subvert the will of the people.

sycasey said:

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Making it official . . . the last O.C. domino falls.

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I think Blue TSUNAMI is a fair given Dems went 6 for 6. I thought they could get 3-4 seat but getting all 6 targeted is major feat.

This is a good article with some demographic/historic context from the LA Times. OC should have gone Dem long ago, or it stayed GOP longer than expected.

Orange County goes blue, as Democrats complete historic sweep of its seven congressional seats

bump, though I don't know how much discussion is left as I think nearly everything has been resolved.

golden sloth said:

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bump, though I don't know how much discussion is left as I think nearly everything has been resolved.

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Don't look now, but Dems still have a shot at another California seat. (One that the networks actually called for the Republican, but has tightened very swiftly since then and probably should be uncalled. This is a district that voted for Hillary, but the Republican rep maintained a surprising lead in polling.) Lots of ballots left, and the late count has been trending surprisingly heavily against the GOP.

There's also a seat still up for grabs in Utah, of all places. Trump made fun of Mia Love for losing ("Didn't show me enough love!") when she trailed by about 2 points on election night, but then she managed to take the lead in late counting (which must be voter fraud as conservatives liked to claim about CA and FL, right?). However, the Democrat still has a chance since the remaining ballots are in the more left-leaning county and are "provisional" ballots, which usually means new voters and young people.

When all is said and done, Democrats will gain somewhere between 38-40 seats in the House.

B.A. Bearacus said:

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ps. Dems apparently also really improving the AQI in the OC.

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I look at that map of OC flipping and have to think there's some kind of harmonic convergence effecting the area because U$C also crapped its pant at the same time as the OC dominoes fell. Methinks the Russkies are behind it all. They poisoned the pool with Rohrabacher and they're poisoned the $C FB team to foster poor morale in the area.

Another Bear said:

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B.A. Bearacus said:

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ps. Dems apparently also really improving the AQI in the OC.

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I look at that map of OC flipping and have to think there's some kind of harmonic convergence effecting the area because U$C also crapped its pant at the same time as the OC dominoes fell. Methinks the Russkies are behind it all. They poisoned the pool with Rohrabacher and they're poisoned the $C FB team to foster poor morale in the area.

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As the votes have continued to be tallied, Rohrabacher has gotten absolutely destroyed. Not close at all.

Glad to see his bizarre obsequiousness towards Putin finally did not go unnoticed by his district.

sycasey said:

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Another Bear said:

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B.A. Bearacus said:

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ps. Dems apparently also really improving the AQI in the OC.

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I look at that map of OC flipping and have to think there's some kind of harmonic convergence effecting the area because U$C also crapped its pant at the same time as the OC dominoes fell. Methinks the Russkies are behind it all. They poisoned the pool with Rohrabacher and they're poisoned the $C FB team to foster poor morale in the area.

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As the votes have continued to be tallied, Rohrabacher has gotten absolutely destroyed. Not close at all.

Glad to see his bizarre obsequiousness towards Putin finally did not go unnoticed by his district.

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OC was Cold War Warrior central with Nixon, John Birch society and Reagan. That generation of Cold War Warrior (The Greatest) are almost gone but I think the culture/attitudes lives on and I think it pushed the vote against Rohrabacher, like Trump did. Just too much to overcome. The tax code change where Californians can't deduct state taxes and healthcare however is what the Dems sold down there.