I don't know if you lads read the economic and business news this morning but multiple and varied reports of economic trouble brewing, and not the usual this or that.

A) Yield curve inversion panic
B) Former SoCarolina GOP Rep. Mark Sanford warns of not reeling in the deficit
C) Bloomberg reports, Recession Warnings Pile Up for Global Economy
D) WSJ reports, As Global Order Crumbles, Risks of Recession Grow
E) WaPo reports, Stock Losses Deepen as a Key Recession Warning Surfaces

Some of this seems cyclical and we're due after 9-10 years. And who takes this crap seriously, until it's too late? And yet a lot of seems self-induced with Trump's chaos trade policy that has screwed several markets...as in why fcck with something that's not broken? Spite? Stupidity? Ego? None of it makes sense.

The crazy thing is this is a freaking repeating cycle, GOP screw the economy, Democrats fix the economy afterwards. Yes, some is cyclical and the recovery economics were not planned by Dems..but Dubya's wars and Trump's assbackwards policy and really poor negotiation skills looks plains stupid.

So does the economy take down Trump? 14 months to the election. Any predictions on severity?

General guesses below:

No, a down trending economy or recession will NOT play a role in the 2020 elections.

(star this)

Trump and Wilbur Ross delay tariffs until December, to save Christmas for Americans.

Oh wait, it's really a tax? Never mind...

Inversion curve discussion for those not into the detail:

The yield curve inversion panic, explained https://www.vox.com/2019/8/14/20805404/yield-curve-inversion-recession-10-year-2-year?


A combination of slowing economic activity globally, muted inflation pressure, trade tensions, and rate cuts from central banks around the world (just not the FED) suggests we are in the late stages of the economic cycle. Today's yield curve inversion is consistent with this view.

Also, from a historical perspective, this is the end stage of what has been an overly long period of sustained growth, which means while a recession likely is coming. Just how imminent it is really is in the eye of the beholder.


I don't get the above comment about inflation. I KEEP saying it's coming, and it doesn't. We don't really have the inflation that even the FED wanted.

From the Trump's ****ter account... Again, can't make this crap up.

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We are winning, big time, against China. Companies & jobs are fleeing. Prices to us have not gone up, and in some cases, have come down. China is not our problem, though Hong Kong is not helping. Our problem is with the Fed. Raised too much & too fast. Now too slow to cut....

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..Spread is way too much as other countries say THANK YOU to clueless Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve. Germany, and many others, are playing the game! CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE! We should easily be reaping big Rewards & Gains, but the Fed is holding us back. We will Win!

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Dow tanks 800 points. I'm sure there will be a rally tomorrow and the Dow is a crude measure...but the die of paranoia might be cast.

That seems like a fair explanation, Trump gamed the system, gave the 1% a huge tax break, runs up a record deficit and he brought in the swamp monsters (cabinet members) to help with the plundering. Agree the gaming means the adjustment will be harsh.

It's a good time to be an owner of long term Treasuries

#trumprecession

Another Bear said:

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#trumprecession

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Democrats always get it wrong.

#TrumpSlump is the best wording to go with.

#TrumpSlump does have an easy roll to it but either way, tag the economy on him.

drumphharumph

The irony is extra funky, extra chunky and extra creamy.

Just heard on tv

Trump will cut a China trade war tariff deal of any kind ahead of the election in order to boost the stock market so he can win.

I actually see legs in that thought. The news will cause upward moves.
Which unnerves me.

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Stocks plunge after Trump's trade tweets

Driving the news: Shares opened lower after China announced $75 billion in retaliatory tariffs early Friday, but then picked up into positive territory after Fed chair Jerome Powell avoided making waves in a highly watched speech.

• Thereafter, Trump's took to Twitter, targeting both Powell (who he called an "enemy" of America) and China (from which he "ordered" U.S. companies to withdraw), and pledged new trade actions.
• Stocks fell more than 200 points immediately after the tweets, and only went further down from there save for a small uptick in the closing minutes.

https://www.axios.com/stocks-plunge-trump-trade-tweet-90a04a0b-0659-4444-aab9-9f7b84530d35.html

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[url=https://www.axios.com/stocks-plunge-trump-trade-tweet-90a04a0b-0659-4444-aab9-9f7b84530d35.html][/url]

concordtom said:

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Just heard on tv

Trump will cut a China trade war tariff deal of any kind ahead of the election in order to boost the stock market so he can win.

I actually see legs in that thought. The news will cause upward moves.
Which unnerves me.

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Trump will change his mind over 20 times on China before the election, creating volatility in the markets and overall loss in value (volatility creates more risk and depresses prices). Most people focus on market value forgetting that capital markets actually provide capital to business. This means it will be more difficult to raise money if you are a listed company, further having a depressing impact to the economy.

Interjecting some politics: Biden may getting old, but he is a predictable, steady hand. Markets don't like disruptive forces.

Markets do like a steady hand. Obama's low key and steady hand helped the recovery and spurred an unprecedented growth streak. Of course Trump's chaos does the opposite but he amps it up with Twitter. Obama was deemed a "steady eddie" from the military and intel and they prefer steadiness as well.

In addition to some sweet Crime Family stock trades before his tweets that crash the market, there's this:

Trump's company could save millions if interest rates fall as he demands

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trumps-company-could-save-millions-if-interest-rates-fall-as-he-demands/2019/08/24/5e5df684-c5a9-11e9-b5e4-54aa56d5b7ce_story.html
https://beta.washingtonpost.com/politics/trumps-company-could-save-millions-if-interest-rates-fall-as-he-demands/2019/08/24/5e5df684-c5a9-11e9-b5e4-54aa56d5b7ce_story.html?noredirect=on

It seems like our allies have had enough of the Idiot in Chief's **** and are ready to go it alone. This while Macron brought the Iranians as the special guest to the G7. Can't wait to see what the Market will open at.

From The Atlantic. Make sense to me and why socialism is popular. Not their doing.

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The Next Recession Will Destroy Millennials
Millennials are already in debt and without savings. After the next downturn, they'll be in even bigger trouble.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/08/millennials-are-screwed-recession/596728/

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[url=https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/08/millennials-are-screwed-recession/596728/][/url]

Ruh-roh...

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Insiders are selling stock like it's 2007

New York (CNN Business)The leaders of Corporate America are cashing in their chips as doubts grow about the sustainability of the longest bull market in American history.

Corporate insiders have sold an average of $600 million of stock per day in August, according to TrimTabs Investment Research, which tracks stock market liquidity.

August is on track to be the fifth month of the year in which insider selling tops $10 billion. The only other times that has happened was 2006 and 2007, the period before the last bear market in stocks, TrimTabs said.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/26/investing/stock-market-insider-selling/

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[url=https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/26/investing/stock-market-insider-selling/][/url]

who's buying these stocks lol

ETA: April 2020

It's almost as if a small class of people try to inflate the economy because they can "clean up" during a recession...scary times!

tRump absolutely manipulates events to exacerbate them and then he manipulates them back to the starting point or just shy of the starting point and declares himself a hero.

"The basic principles of investment are being upended, perhaps irreversibly, as the world enters an era of ultra-low and even negative interest rates, Axios Markets editor Dion Rabouin writes.

What's happening: American consumers have seen the interest rates they're paid on savings accounts, bonds and CDs tumble this year, and central banks have set negative rates in Japan and the eurozone.
Negative interest rates mean depositors pay to save money in bank accounts.
The Federal Reserve is gearing up to cut interest rates for the second time this year when it meets later this month, and banks are already cutting rates on savings accounts.

Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan said last week that it's "only a matter of time" before negative rates come to the U.S.
The big picture: The low-to-negative interest rate environment poses a major problem for people looking to save for retirement.

The traditional 60/40 portfolio (60% stocks and 40% bonds) that fund managers have used to craft retirement accounts for decades doesn't work in the long-term if bonds yield nothing or have negative rates.
"Young people ... are going to have to substantially increase their contributions" to retirement accounts if they hope to actually retire one day, Alicia Munnell, director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, tells Axios.
Future retirees will also likely have to put more of their funds into stocks and other assets that are riskier and more likely to result in a loss of principal, meaning retirement assets will be less secure.
Between the lines: U.S. pension and retirement funds are currently underfunded by trillions of dollars, and states are already in a position where they're either going to have to raise taxes or cut benefits for future retirees or both." Axios

Are We Near a Recession? The Godfather of the Inverted Yield Curve Says It's 'Code Red'

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"I have gone on the record to issue a recession code red," says Campbell Harvey, a professor of finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University. "Growth will slow according to my model."

Indeed the spread between the 10-year and the 3-monthhas sustained its inversion almost perfectly for exactly a quarterminus one singular bright spot in late July when the yields of the two treasuries dallied at around the same levels. One of the initial curves that Harvey examined, the 5-year to the 3-month, has been inverted since February. And in what seems like confirmation of the fact, the 10-year and 2 year, which has also predicted past recessions, also has turned red in August.

Harvey notes that indicators such as GDP, unemployment rates, and the stock market are all lagging indicatorsthey give a snapshot of what is happening over the past quarter or now, for example. Instead, he points to a recent Chief Financial Officer surveyconducted by Duke, in which 67% of CFOs said they expect a recession in late 2020. These surveys, says Harvey, can indicate how key decision makers plan to spend their money in the future.

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