wifeisafurd said:
Another Bear said:
From the England vs. Spain thread...Brexit has really got me thinking that Trump is actually the side show distraction that over shadows Brexit and I think that's by design or very lucky in sequences. Add in the recent Greenland baloney and yeah...it's Russia and Putin, like duh. The Russkies played both Brexit and Trump via social media...kind of rolled the dice and lucked out both came up for them.
Here's the deal... Yes, Trump has done great damage to the U.S., on many levels. Mueller concluded Russia did in fact interfere with the '16 U.S. election...and they're doing now. Still when you look at Brexit, the EU and Western Europe...they're going to be weakened greatly, NATO will be weakened and the UK will take a major economic hit. And who benefits from this instability? Russia.
It's been difficult figuring out all the politics and political mechanisms in the UK. parliament, different parties...but Brexit is a no-going-back situation. It's final and the consequences and repercussions are real... Like the open movement of EU citizen goes away. UK citizens might be "deported", told to go home...or they have no status and can't own property.
With Trump, he's gone in 14 months, or 62 months. Damage done...but the U.S. has an clear exit, even if it's hairy and Trump goes full ape-sh*t.
If a no-deal Brexit happens...the clusterfcck is going to be even worse. There's border and international politics going on with Ireland, a hard border, import laws and Ireland remaining in the EU. Ireland and Northern Ireland agreed on no hard border, to keep the peace process going. Ireland remains in the EU. Seems a little karma might be on order given England and Irelands mutual history.
And man, yes Trump is a full idiot...but Boris Johnson is right there with him. Totally incompetent and just as dumb but the stakes are higher. With Brexit the NATO and Western European alliance might fail. It will take a hit regardless.
Yes, Trump is fccking up the U.S...but be happy we're not the UK.
Any expats living in Europe or the UK, or anyone with better knowledge of Brexit and the politics? I only see the potential fall out and that looks bad but I'm guessing it's way worse.
After reading headlines today about buying Greenland, the Brazilian rain forests being set afire by some NGO or someone, Hong Kong, and on and on, it is like how much worse can it get with Brexit? There were reasons the UK voted for Brexit -certain UK industries were getting screwed by the folks in Brussels, which is what happens when you have multi-country compacts. You have to compromise.
I suspect the UK folks through they could end-up like the Swiss, with individual agreements with the EU, while maintaining independence. The problem is that a weaking EU (where Italy, Greece (occasionally), and other counties make noise about getting out), doesn't want to let anyone out on good terms, less they provide incentive for others to leave. Ireland clearly is a geo-political problem and provide the EU some leverage.
However, the impact on the UK economically probably is overstated, especially if a deal can be reached. If mot. the cost of EU goods goes up leading to some inflation in the short term, and UK industry being more competitive domestically. Sale of UK goods probably decline a lot in the EU market, but UK is now free to forge its own trade deals with counties outside the UK which could in the long run help UK business vs EU competitors, but in the near term means a loss in GDP. A lot of has made about uncertainty killing investment; however forecasts by the Bank of England and other of what would happen immediately after the Brexit referendum were way too pessimistic (actually wrong) according to recent studies by American economists (Stanford study). A lot of this has been investment in the UK from Asian markets (primality China) which are leaving the US due to deteriorating relations and taking advantage of the falling Pound. A lot of companies hedge their bets and moved operations to both the EU and UK. But the bottom line is there is a big uptick in foreign direct investment in the UK, which suggests from an economic standpoint, capital is not buying the doomsday scenarios. And then there is the wealth issue, a lot of EU assets are owned by the UK. In fact, Johnson has been not so subtle mentioning UK pension funds are more than double digit times bigger than all of German and French investment put together and his government would respond quite forcefully to protect those funds. What he means is quite the opposite, where the UK government will force divestment, crashing the EU stock markets. This is a valid threat, indeed a huge threat. Perhaps too huge a threat - as in putting both the UK and EU Into a recessionary spiral. I think the cold war military people called this approach the threat of mutual destruction. I'm not sure this will make the entire EU blink, but the EU may have less leverage than it thinks if the UK starts putting restrictions on ownership of EU assets and companies. The main response for the EU is to not allow UK banks access to the EU banks, and that would hurt both sets of banks. It would be as if the EU and UK fought a war and the Swiss won.
Johnson may be pompous, but he is not Trump. He is not starting trade wars with his biggest trading partner, he is not trying to buy counties, and I could just go on. There is a reason Merkel asked Johnson yesterday to come up with a new alternative proposal for the UK leaving in 30 days including to the Irish border back stop. Germany blinked.
Edit: the 30 days is for Johnson to present a new alternative, not for the UK to leave in 30 days.
I read it completely differently, WIAF.
1. Johnson sent a letter ahead of the visit saying UK would not do a deal with the Irish backstop - it is a violation of their sovereignty, etc.
2. On the visit Merkel responded by saying 1. They always had agreed to negotiate something regarding the Irish border in the next two years. If UK wants to do it in 30 days, fine. 2. It isn't her job to come up with a solution. They need to propose something if they want something other than in the current agreement. 3. Whatever that proposal is, a hard border won't fly. 4. The economic deal is not changing. 5. Oh, and by the way, if you want to end this stupidity and just come back to the EU, Germany would support that.
Merkel did not ask Johnson to come up with an alternative proposal INCUDING to the Irish border backstop. She asked him to come up with an alternative proposal to the Irish border back stop, full stop, nothing else, they aren't negotiating anything else. I don't believe Germany blinked.
My interpretation of it is this:
Johnson sent the letter to look tough, but to also signal to the EU - "look, politically I can't just come in here and go back with the exact same deal that May had. I need something. The biggest thing I can get that is of least impact to you is relief on the Irish backstop. (probably because largely immigration hawks drove Brexit in the first place). Politically I either have to get a concession or just fight and take the UK out without a deal. Merkel signaled back with - "I get that. You need to look like you accomplished something. We can listen on the Irish backstop because it was never going to be the end state. If that makes you look like a hero and it gets the deal done, fine with us. But you have to make a proposal. That proposal cannot be hard border. It IS your border. How are you going to manage it?" Johnson responded with humor quoting Merkel's campaign slogan in German translating to "We can do it"
My guess is that Johnson goes back, comes up with something on the Irish border that maybe makes sense, portrays it as a great concession from the EU. Tells hardliners privately this is the best we are going to get so you can either make it look like a political win or you can make it look like a political loss. Your choice. (If I were him, I'd threaten them with another Brexit vote if they hesitate.)
You are absolutely right that Johnson is not Trump. He is what some voters, I think including yourself hoped Trump would be. A bizarre showman in public, but underneath that basically a politician who knows what he is doing.
I don't like Johnson. He is a flat out liar - been caught many times just making up things out of nothing to make political points. I don't like what he stands for. I think guys like him on both sides of the aisle in America set the stage for someone like Trump by being dishonest, killing much of the public's trust in politicians, and playing to fears and division as long as it helps them politically. But unlike Trump, he is the guy that does those things to get elected and then knows how to govern.
Johnson knows full well he is in a precarious spot. There is real risk that Northern Ireland will be a disaster in this process. Scotland is mad as hell and would probably vote to leave the UK and go to the EU if they had an election today. He can't let this drag on much longer without big risk there. Wales is even ticked off. There is a real risk that if he blows this he will be the last PM to govern the United Kingdom as it is currently constructed.
But the nuances here are something Trump would not employ. Trump would just go in guns blazing (politically speaking). Johnson basically is looking for a political solution and essentially asked - is there room to make one or do we just drop this and fight now. He got what he needed now - there is room to talk. These are the parameters.
