Cal88 said:BearChemist said:If you just pull out the daily new confirmed case graph, France is two standard deviations away from the peak of the curve, which was the first week of April (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/). Italy peaked at the last week of March, have had a slow but steady decay, and now the daily cases is ~1.5k comparing to 6k during the peak. Spain also sees ~2k daily new cases this week, compared to 7.5k in late March.Cal88 said:BearChemist said:Now this is the Cal 88 I remember. First of all, can you elaborate how South Korea has developed herd immunity? The country started testing like crazy since February and as of today has 11k confirmed cases, out of 52 millions population. Herd immunity has become the kind of buzz words that stupid people just throw around casually, not realizing that we are still ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE away from it in any country.Cal88 said:calumnus said:Cal88 said:
Professional soccer in Germany has been cleared to resume next weekend.
The pandemic started about the same time in the US as in Germany. Germany has had virtually the same death total as in an average flu year. The NY pandemic cycle will end later this month.
Nearly all professional sports in Europe will be back and running by August.I don't see why college football shouldn't be held this Fall as planned. The only question should be about the attendance. At the very least, they should allow students and younger fans in.
Professional baseball starts in Korea this week. It started on April 12th in Taiwan.
Korea and the US reported their first cases at the same time in February and Korea has MUCH more travel to/from China. Yet, in NYC, the largest city in the US, over 20,000 people have died. In Seoul, with a population of 10 million (vs 8 million in NYC) only 2 (two!) people have died.
And they are now playing professional baseball. Life is returning to normal in Taiwan and Korea BECAUSE they have the virus under control. If we had acted similarly....
It is also because they have built some herd immunity by not locking down completely. That is actually an essential part of their management strategy,
Follow what is going on in Europe carefully, as I do. Countries like Italy, which have fared much worse than the US, and will have nearly double the deaths per capita as the US, will eventually follow Germany's lead and restart their professional soccer league next month. Expect Italian Serie A games to start at the end of the month. Shops are reopening for business right now in Germany, and only gatherings over 50 people are banned in Sweden.
Epidemics follow Farr's Law, which stipulates that the infections and casualties have a bell curve. For relatively infectious diseases like covid, that curve is very narrow, surging quickly then fading equally fast, provided that some herd immunity is allowed to build up, this is one key to the success in countries like Japan, Korea, Singapore, Germany and Sweden.
The early wisdom of "flattening the curve" has not held up the test of time, it might actually result in higher deaths overall after all is said and done, and of course far greater economic damage with related casualties on that end. As well it leaves the country more open to the second wave, and provides greater opportunity for the virus to mutate. This is a bit counterintuitive, but many epidemiologists understand this.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farr%27s_laws
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-william-farrs-way-out-of-the-pandemic/
Second, saying European countries are looking to restart pro sport leagues so US can do so is like a jealous child asking why he cannot have shiny new toys like his neighbor does. Germany has reduced their R0 to 0.65 as of today, with the government setting clear guidelines for business to open gradually. Barber shops just opened in late April. Restaurants will only open after May 18. And this is for a country clearly on the far side of the bell curve. I don't understand how one can confidently lump US, which at best is right over the hump and with people doing sorts of stupid protest for their freedom of infecting others, together with European countries which have actual leadership that set policies based on scientific evidences -- While Trump was encouraging people to inject disinfectant, Merkel was explaining in plain language to German people the importance of keeping R0 below 1. The only similarity can be drawn between US and Germany is the RWNJs who find yet another excuse to flex muscles on the street.
Italy has not handled the crisis well at all, neither have France or Spain. Those countries are going to end up with death rates that are nearly double those of the US. Macron has actually been far worse than Trump as far as his handling of covid, believe it or not.
In France there is talk of restarting pro soccer in June with reduced fan attendance (5,000 or less), and the Spanish Liga players are already back in training as well. Italy is inching towards restarting its Serie A league in June, they've cleared players to practice. Sweden, which has never instituted stringent social distancing, is restarting its league in June.
If those countries, many of which got hit harder than the States, can have games on in a few weeks, I don't see why we can't have college football here four months from now.
As for US, the daily new cases has been around 25-30k FOR THE PAST FIVE WEEKS. (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/) It is not a bell curve but a step function. There is no, zero, nada sign of decay that is meaningful in the statistical sense. Italy and Spain employed nearly two month of strict lockdown and have seen the results. None of these countries has allowed restaurants to reopen yet, but now american crazies are feeling impatient after some half-ass SIP orders, seriously? Look at the graphs, Cal 88, because just weeks ago you were the most keen in posting the COVID cases in various countries. Look at them and tell us with straight face that US is anywhere close to qualified considering pro sports.
If you look at the picture in NY/NJ, you will see a sharp spiky normal distribution, like those in all other cities that were severely hit with covid, grows fast then drops nearly as fast, following Farr's law:
In the US we're already just past the peak in terms of new daily death, that much is clear from the graph you've linked. Perhaps in the US that curve, which is an aggregate count of a much larger country with many urban centers spread wider is going to be flatter than those of individual European countries, this accounts for the US new deaths curve having a flatter, plateau-ish peak. I think the virus will have cycled through most of the US by the end of this month or mid-June at the latest. That's why I'm optimistic about our upcoming football season.
Cal88, Korea has been doing extensive testing from Day 1. Look at their graph, after hitting 10,000 (isolated in one area of the country) their new cases dropped precipitously.
They continue to test widely and critically test asymptomatic people.
The key is that in Seoul, a city of 10 million people, only two people have died. There is no way they can have achieved herd immunity while 99% are testing negative and only 2 people in Seoul die in the process.
The experiments in "herd immunity" among developed countries are Sweden and the US. In the US we have over 75,000 dead already, the number of deaths per day flattened but did not diminish and now we are opening up in much of the country.
Piss poor attempt at avoiding a direct response by distracting from it. I take it then that you don't dispute President Trump's having done those things. The accusation was that he was too late in taking action. I presented evidence that he took action before even the first death in the US.