Unit2Sucks said:
Cal88 said:
Unit2Sucks said:
Your attribution of a strawman to me is risible. You said that deaths and infections have become decoupled which means that there is no relation. I've claimed that there is a relationship, not that the relationship will remain constant over time (eg the multiplier will not remain constant). As I've noted, the mix has shifted younger (which drives the death rate lower) and that we have improved treatments which further reduce the rate. Nonetheless, some portion of the infected will die weeks after they become infected. Also, the lag will vary over time depending on how early in the infection cycle we are diagnosing people. I would expect we've cut the death rate by at least half if not more, but that it will still be proportional to infected.
"It will still be proportional to infected"
The ratio has decreased by a factor of 4. I've actually quantified the level of decoupling between the number of new cases and the new deaths, here is what I've said above: the new case curve has decoupled from the new death cases, overshooting it by a factor of 4+:"
We have today is:
-deaths rising, but still less than half the death levels from the peak,
-more than twice the case numbers from the peak,
>>> hence the factor of 4 in the change in proportionality between the data sets. That is a very large fundamental shift in the data.
I don't have a premium membership so I can't post graphs generated with the very latest data, I've done a search where those two charts are side by side. Your combined tendency to attribute malice on my part is pretty tiresome.
Basically here is the situation as I see it in the US:
-All the large eastern/northern states with large urban centers have already cycled through and are not likely to bounce back, and they haven't. Those were the low-hanging fruits: NY/NJ (170), Boston/MA (124), Philly/PA (56), Detroit/MI (64), Chicago/IL (60). All these death curves look like those from W. Europe, late stage bell-shaped.
Numbers in parentheses are deaths per 100k, as tabulated here:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/
-Sun Belt states have not experienced a large number of deaths to date relative to their size: FL (28), TX (20), CA(22) and maybe GA (33). They account for the current bounce. There is a relatively high level of uncertainty about where they will go, for example how far TX (20) will close the gap with on Louisiana (84), or NC(18) with Maryland (57).
None of these states are likely to get sustained ICU shortages like those that hit NY, their vitamin D levels are higher, with heat and humidity a factor, and their nursing home policies are probably not going to be as reckless as those in NY. We'll see how it goes...
I attribute it to malice because you constantly post out of date charts or charts without citations. What's tiring is when you pass off misleading and unverified charts as reliable data to prove a point that you can't prove with sourced reliable data. If you don't want to be accused of posting in malice, start posting good faith data that we can examine. I continually poke holes in the data you post because there are holes to be poked. That's your problem, not mine.
People like you were saying that the sunbelt states would be saved by the heat and now they're saying the heat makes it worse because people flee to AC indoors. There is always some wild unverified theory that you are certain of but can't provide any objective and well-supported evidence for. You almost never cite peer-reviewed studies because your self-sealing conspiracy theories rule them out as the product of big pharma or other nefarious actors.
Yet you constantly cherrypick misleading or out of date data to support an argument that you can't make with good sourced data.
I let this one go earlier, but here we go from your first post in this thread.
What is your source for this chart? Who is gummibear737? How did he/she/they determine which countries had different levels of usage of HCQ?
Based on articles I've read, many of the countries in the "No HCQ Use" category did prescribe HCQ. Many of them stopped after study after study showed it to be ineffective, but by that time the bulk of the deaths was behind them. If I were you I would say that the deaths stopped when they stopped prescribing HCQ but I'm not you so I will acknowledge that there is probably no relation. Brazil is basically the poster child for HCQ use and yet is put into the mixed category. You frequently tout Iran as a success but it's in the mixed category (you will say they didn't use it from the get go). So you cite Iran both as evidence of HCQ because of their success and because of their failure. How convenient for you.
So why don't you start by agreeing to only cite data that you can support and acknowledge in good faith the limitations in the data (including when you can't find more recent data). I endeavor to post limitations that I'm aware of and if you think I'm being disingenuous I welcome you to challenge me on my data. Sunshine is the best disinfectant, right?
If you were here in good faith that would be easy to do but I suspect you will disappear for a few weeks and retool your conspiracies and come back with ever yet misleading data and the struggle will begin anew.
The chart above is a good introduction to the topic of HCQ use across countries. I agree it's not bulletproof. A much better approach would have been to show the difference in death rates per million, virtually all the countries that have relied primarily on HCQ have had very good results.
Quote:
Based on articles I've read, many of the countries in the "No HCQ Use" category did prescribe HCQ. Many of them stopped after study after study showed it to be ineffective, but by that time the bulk of the deaths was behind them. If I were you I would say that the deaths stopped when they stopped prescribing HCQ but I'm not you so I will acknowledge that there is probably no relation.
The study you referred to here, the one yanked by the Lancet, was complete bull****, based on fraudulent data. That study was used to ban HCQ in several countries overnight, which is really outrageous, they didn't even wait for the ink to dry. Other studies like the British Recovery trial were set to fail, they've used recklessly high doses of HCQ (2,400mg, which is 4 times the normal high end for a daily dose!) and administered them to late-stage patients, which was already understood to be useless and not done by even staunch advocates for the drug.
HCQ works very well when prescribed EARLY, in combination with azythromycin and zinc, not after the damage is done to the lungs and other organs in the late stages, and it should be applied for ten days.
Brazil isn't mandating HCQ to its patients, from what I've been told that situation is similar to the US or France, where local/state health establishments tend to be against it while the president or (a local champion in France) is strongly for it. Algeria on the other hand is all in on HCQ, mandated at the national level with a highly centralized health system, it should be a green bar not a yellow.
Back in March, the situation in Turkey looked pretty dire, they were very successful in controlling its outbreak through HCQ after getting hit hard early in March. Greece, Russia, Portugal and Israel as well have had very low death rates per capita using HCQ across their health system:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million?tab=chart&time=2020-02-15..&country=FRA~GRC~IRN~ISR~ITA~TUR~RUS~PRT~ESPIt's interesting to look at Morocco, which has also fully gone behind HCQ with great success, because the death rates for their expat communities in W. Europe has been over 20 times their domestic national death rate. This is a country that's a stone throw from Spain with a very large diaspora in Spain, France and Belgium and travel between there and Europe was widespread in March when the pandemic was growing rapidly there.
It's quite clear that every country that has gone all in on HCQ has had good results with it, and this group includes countries with high scientific standards like Israel, Russia, Greece and the UAE.
I will provide proper documentation for thisand other aspects of HCQ use on this thread.
