LMK5 said:
Death Thirteen said:
Big C said:
Coincidentally, if you add up the populations of the following five large European countries, that total just about equals the US population, so we can compare apples with apples. I'm talking about Germany, Great Britain, France, Italy and Spain.
We have a lot in common with those five countries: advanced health care, fairly heterogeneous populations, relative affluence and democratic governments. Additionally, Western Europe and the USA were each hit early and hard by the virus.
Population:
Those five: about 325 million
The U.S.A.: about 325 million
COVID cases:
Those five: about 3,265,000
The U.S.A.: about 8,000,000
COVID deaths:
Those five: aeatbout 157,000
The U.S.A.: about 220,000
Current COVID status:
Those five: the virus is surging
The U.S.A.: the virus is surging
Conclusion:
Until there's a reliable vaccine, SARS-CoV-2 is just flat-out going to have its way with any population that is not TOTALLY concentrated on suppressing it, but you can make it better, or you can make it worse. Europe hasn't done all that well against it. The US, even worse. We could've done better.
My conclusion is that there is no foolproof strategy. It's all about time in my opinion.
Even New Zealand, which has had only 25 deaths had thought to stamp it out had the virus come back a second time without allowing anybody from outside their country to enter the country. To hope that we're gonna stamp this thing out is a fool's errand. It's too adaptable and willing to mutate. They're just prolonging the inevitable stage where people are going to have to build immunity. If they make it to a point where a dependable vaccine is developed, then their strategy will ultimately pay off, but only immunity whether acquired as nature intended or by vaccine is going to eradicate this thing (for a while). We never gave ourselves that chance because our country never had a national strategy and so even if a few states did well initially due to being more rural or having a better lockdown, people that refused to cooperate ensured that it would spread anyway. But those areas are probably further along the path to immunity as a result.
We're still dealing with a virus that, to date, has a fatality rate of less than 2.7% of all that are infected. Of those people have died, 8 out of 10 deaths have been from adults 65 and older. It's also apparent that we're going to have people around us who are asymptomatic for some time.
As long as we keep having this moronic stance of shutting the entire country down for a disease that we can control with simple safety measures, this thing is going to linger longer and we're going to be pushing the time further down the line where we can resume living our lives without wearings masks.
As I've been saying for some time, the virus is everywhere and sooner or later we are all going to be exposed no matter what. My workplace has taken extraordinary precautions against spread, and even with a skeleton staff on site we have had at least 17 confirmed cases. If my workplace can have spread, I assure you that Costco, Home Depot, and the supermarket are far riskier. Europe's lockdowns were much more severe than ours and they are seeing a surge in cases. Lockdowns don't appear to be the answer and in fact the WHO has come out against them: "We in the World Health Organization do not advocate lockdowns as the primary means of control of this virus."
I am happy to see that some areas of our country are trying to live as normally as possible while being responsible. This is most evident in kids getting back to school and also seeing crowds at some CFB games. We must manage our lives with the virus, not pretend we can avoid it by hiding.
Any sort of lockdown in a country like the US (or a European country) is just a delay tactic to calm the spread so the hospitals don't get overwhelmed. I don't see how, as a civil society, we can let ourselves get past that point, people dying on gurneys outside the ICU and such. That said, the only time we have been near that point was in April and then only in a few areas.
I believe we should try and lead as normal a life as possible (still using mask/distancing precautions and mass testing/tracing), up until we seem to be headed to the "overwhelming" level. At that point, what can you do except shut down?
Every few months that somebody doesn't get the virus, they stand a better chance. People fare much better now than they would've six months ago. Six months from now, as lots of people will likely be getting vaccinated, much better still.
We need to use common sense, stay focused and follow the science. The moment this thing got politicized, common sense (on both sides) got lost in the shuffle.