Biden-Harris Transition Prediction Thread

6,942 Views | 55 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by concordtom
okaydo
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Make your predictions:

1. Will Trump concede? What date?
2. Will Republicans in Congress acknowledge Biden as president-elect? What date?
3. Will Trump be forced out of the White House by Secret Service? Or will he leave voluntarily?
4. Will Biden become the 46th or 47th president of the United States?


Here are a couple (scary) transition links:





okaydo
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My prediction: It's not that Trump is not going to go quietly, it's that he's unable to grasp legitimately losing.

I predict there will be a standoff. He'll just continue carrying on being president. He'll continue denying he lost the election. He will continue being enabled by high-profile Republicans. And on January 20, he'll have to be dragged out of the White House.
oskidunker
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Trump is gaining ground in Arizona and Cnn no longer covering it. Lost 3000 votes as of 4 pm today. Lead-now less than 17,000. I have no idea how many ballots are left or how long Sparky is going to take to finish this. I doubt Trump catches up but it would seem to me the more states Biden wins, less chances of Trump over turning the election.

Any thoughts on this? Also who knows when Georgia will be done counting. And whybthe hell isNorth Carolina not called? It is obviously going to Trump.
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dajo9
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I think Trump will be at Mar a Lago by inauguration day. The real battle will be when New York tries to get him extradited from Florida.
sycasey
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oskidunker said:

Trump is gaining ground in Arizona and Cnn no longer covering it. Lost 3000 votes as of 4 pm today. Lead-now less than 17,000. I have no idea how many ballots are left or how long Sparky is going to take to finish this. I doubt Trump catches up but it would seem to me the more states Biden wins, less chances of Trump over turning the election.

Any thoughts on this? Also who knows when Georgia will be done counting. And whybthe hell isNorth Carolina not called? It is obviously going to Trump.

Arizona and Georgia will stay in Biden's column and there will be no legitimate argument to contest the election.

North Carolina probably stays with Trump, though it may narrow a bit. They haven't called it because ballots can be received by mail after Election Day in NC and they don't know how many are still outstanding.
wifeisafurd
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I predict that Vox will continue to have its head up its arse.

Trump will get a recount where state law so requires, and nothing more from the courts. That means he already lost the election.

There is no law requiring the Trump administration to cooperate, and knowing Trump, they won't. Nor will he concede in public. An appropriate end of his legacy as a divisive leader.

The GSA probably can be compelled to do limited preparation at some point, but that is what Biden will get, the minimum.

Trump will leave, rather than be seen as being removed.

Most GOP in Congress are privately congratulating Biden, and not saying anything in public. That will change when Trump is thrown out of court. I'm not an expert in this area of law, but I have not heard anyone come-up with any theory on why the courts will allow Trumps' challenges (other than automatic recounts which won't make a difference) to continue.

Biden will take the oath of office on time, 1/20/21.

And Vox still will have its head up its arse.

At some point in the next 2 years, Trump will be indicted for tax fraud.
okaydo
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wifeisafurd said:

I predict that Vox will continue to have its head up its arse.

Trump will get a recount where state law so requires, and nothing more from the courts. That means he already lost the election.

There is no law requiring the Trump administration to cooperate, and knowing Trump, they won't. Nor will he concede in public. An appropriate end of his legacy as a divisive leader.

The GSA probably can be compelled to do limited preparation at some point, but that is what Biden will get, the minimum.

Trump will leave, rather than be seen as being removed.

Most GOP in Congress are privately congratulating Biden, and not saying anything in public. That will change when Trump is thrown out of court. I'm not an expert in this area of law, but I have not heard anyone come-up with any theory on why the courts will allow Trumps' challenges (other than automatic recounts which won't make a difference) to continue.

Biden will take the oath of office on time, 1/20/21.

And Vox still will have its head up its arse.

At some point in the next 2 years, Trump will be indicted for tax fraud.


Uh, yes, there is a law.

Presidential transitions are a lot of work. That's why they are supposed to begin the day after Election Day.

https://presidentialtransition.org/publications/presidential-transition-act-summary/



And as your favorite publication Vox explains, the shortened timespan for the Bush transition was blamed for 9/11.

In fact, based on that experience, the Bush administration spent extra time ensuring a smooth transition to the Obama administration.

https://www.vox.com/mischiefs-of-faction/2016/10/10/13143264/september-11-improved-presidential-transitions






82gradDLSdad
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okaydo said:

wifeisafurd said:

I predict that Vox will continue to have its head up its arse.

Trump will get a recount where state law so requires, and nothing more from the courts. That means he already lost the election.

There is no law requiring the Trump administration to cooperate, and knowing Trump, they won't. Nor will he concede in public. An appropriate end of his legacy as a divisive leader.

The GSA probably can be compelled to do limited preparation at some point, but that is what Biden will get, the minimum.

Trump will leave, rather than be seen as being removed.

Most GOP in Congress are privately congratulating Biden, and not saying anything in public. That will change when Trump is thrown out of court. I'm not an expert in this area of law, but I have not heard anyone come-up with any theory on why the courts will allow Trumps' challenges (other than automatic recounts which won't make a difference) to continue.

Biden will take the oath of office on time, 1/20/21.

And Vox still will have its head up its arse.

At some point in the next 2 years, Trump will be indicted for tax fraud.


Uh, yes, there is a law.

Presidential transitions are a lot of work. That's why they are supposed to begin the day after Election Day.

https://presidentialtransition.org/publications/presidential-transition-act-summary/



And as your favorite publication Vox explains, the shortened timespan for the Bush transition was blamed for 9/11.

In fact, based on that experience, the Bush administration spent extra time ensuring a smooth transition to the Obama administration.

https://www.vox.com/mischiefs-of-faction/2016/10/10/13143264/september-11-improved-presidential-transitions









I'm still of the belief that there are enough adults in the White House that will aid in the transition. Trump isn't one of them and thank God he doesn't have any knowledge to transfer.
bearister
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From tRump's end, his transition duties will be the simplest in presidential history: he just has to hand over his remote and TV guide.

In addition, at some point in the not so distant future tRump will unplug all the legal actions seeking to prove the election was rigged. The charge that he was robbed of the election will be one of the foundational pillars of his post presidency media career. Even tRump is smart enough to realize that a negative adjudication rips the carpet out from underneath him whereas in tRumptown the ALLEGATION is every bit as good as an actual ruling based on proof of facts and a hell of a lot cheaper.
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LMK5
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bearister said:

From tRump's end, his transition duties will be the simplest in presidential history: he just has to hand over his remote an TV guide.


Good one.
The truth lies somewhere between CNN and Fox.
bearister
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Thanks....and now a new ALLEGATION I'm giving to tRump:

Pfizer is clearly part of a wider Deep State conspiracy and that is why this news was delayed until after the election.


Pfizer says COVID-19 vaccine is looking 90% effective


https://apnews.com/article/pfizer-vaccine-effective-early-data-4f4ae2e3bad122d17742be22a2240ae8

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okaydo
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bearister said:

Thanks....and now a new ALLEGATION I'm giving to tRump:

Pfizer is clearly part of a wider Deep State conspiracy and that is why this news was delayed until after the election.


Pfizer says COVID-19 vaccine is looking 90% effective


https://apnews.com/article/pfizer-vaccine-effective-early-data-4f4ae2e3bad122d17742be22a2240ae8



And just for the record, this has nothing to do with the Trump administration, though he'll claim credit.






Or maybe


okaydo
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January 20, 2021

BearChemist
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Esper has been fired. Not difficult to imagine that signature sheet being passed around in DC.
wifeisafurd
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okaydo said:




Uh, yes, there is a law.

Presidential transitions are a lot of work. That's why they are supposed to begin the day after Election Day.

https://presidentialtransition.org/publications/presidential-transition-act-summary/





yes, I read the article and the law. My post may have been a little too general for your understanding, but is accurate. There is no law that requires cooperation. There is law and what is left to do is in the hands on the GSA, as I noted, and will be likely need to be obtained by court order when thinking about Trump. This is what happens when read Vox and repeat it.

First thing wrong: the transition doesn't begin on the day after the election as you stated. Almost everything is in place already. Read the law. So far, the administration has met its statutory requirements, such as designating space to the Biden campaign, establishing a White House coordinating committee and council of agency transition directors and submitting reports to Congress.

Second thing wrong: There is law on cooperation level. That doesn't mean the appointees need to cooperate. Trump could limit cooperation and make the typically staid process a messy affair. There are no rules on how much cooperation is required, other then in specific instances about military assessments, etc. (and one could argue there is some data to be delivered). You can get into a pissing contest just how much cooperation Biden is entitled to be read into the law, but the courts can't resolve that by the time Biden already is President. $9 million dollars doesn't buy you much cooperation for the entire executive branch (Biden could try to get private funds, but that still doesn't buy cooperation).

Third, a problem: Abrupt policy moves by Trump between now and Jan. 20 inauguration day - from trade decisions to troop withdrawals to presidential pardons to executive orders could undercut the incoming administration. Maybe this is a bad read on Trump, but I think that is coming. Trump will be concerned with preserving his legacy. Bident, on the other hand, will be focused on beginning his own initiatives. Trump will want to protect his policies from being reversed or undermined and may also want to create obstacles to prevent his successor from too quickly achieving political and policy success. Some of this actually happened with Obama Trump and I assume Trump will hold a grudge. Trump is under no obligation to implement or even hep Biden;s political agenda. The Constitution does not demand that the outgoing president pave the political way for his successor or even not provide impediments.


If you bother to read the law, the only thing left post-election is:

Post-Election (if there is a change in administration)
  • On the day following the election, GSA begins to provide office space and support services to the president-elect and Vice President-elect, with support continuing up to 60 days after inauguration
    • A classified summary regarding national security is given to the president-elect as soon as possible after the election
    • 30 days before the expiration of the term, GSA begins support to outgoing president and vice president, with support continuing for 7 months total.


What happens if the result of the election is unclear? The law provides that an eligible candidate has the right to the facilities and services provided to eligible candidates until the date on which the Administrator is able to determine the apparent successful candidates for the office of president and vice president.

Biden't transition staff is in fact physically present already. The transition process cannot shift into gear until the GSA certifies the winner, and it has not yet made a determination. Until then, the GSA can continue providing Biden's team with offices, computers and background checks for security clearances, but they cannot yet enter federal agencies or talk to transition appointees. As I said in my post, my guess is that the courts will ultimately require the GSA to act after Trump losses in court, and as I said in my post, Biden will get minimum cooperation. Again transition appointees don't have tell them what they want. Just so there is an understanding of the level of cooperation needed, there is myriad of governmental agencies, more than 4,000 political appointees, and an annual budget of more than $4.5 trillion. If there is a lack of cooperation, the courts will have to read into the legislation some implicit level of cooperation, and that will take a long time.


The nature and degree of help provided by the outgoing administration to the new administration has varied over the nation's history. And you can read about them. By way of example, W immediately upon taking office, instructed his administration: 1) not to issue any new rules (initiated during President Clinton's administration) until they could be evaluated by a Bush appointee, 2) to pull back any rules that were on the brink of being issued, 3) to suspend the implementation of any rules that had been promulgated but had not yet gone into effects; and 4) a complete review of all administrative entities.

There are no cases addressing presidential duties and obligations with respect to transition, and even if a legal dispute developed, it is likely that a court could find it nonjusticiable, and just wait for Biden to take office. The law that provides structure to transition does not provide specificity to what constitutes the boundaries of cooperation, which is left in the eye of the beholder, judges. Even additional duties that may be found in the Constitution could take years to decide, and when the President takes his oath, become moot (the cases would never reach fruition). Even if, for example, there was a statute requiring the transitions teams to meet with and brief the President-elect that were constitutional, how could the courts force the President to do anything of substance? You could ask a Vox journalist, but they never got there.



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Unit2Sucks
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bearister said:



This is probably similar to what happens at Trump's businesses before they inevitably go bankrupt. Whether they get fired by Jonny Mac or when Biden takes over in January, they are going to get fired. If anything this will just accelerate the exodus.
bearister
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Regarding the Nikki and Pence tRump stroking vaccine comments: Researching the facts before you pop off is only for those coastal elite a$$h@les!
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bearister
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*John Meacham's book about John Lewis, His Truth Goes Marching On is very good. John Lewis was a man of incredible and inspiring courage.
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wifeisafurd
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82gradDLSdad said:

okaydo said:

wifeisafurd said:

I predict that Vox will continue to have its head up its arse.

Trump will get a recount where state law so requires, and nothing more from the courts. That means he already lost the election.

There is no law requiring the Trump administration to cooperate, and knowing Trump, they won't. Nor will he concede in public. An appropriate end of his legacy as a divisive leader.

The GSA probably can be compelled to do limited preparation at some point, but that is what Biden will get, the minimum.

Trump will leave, rather than be seen as being removed.

Most GOP in Congress are privately congratulating Biden, and not saying anything in public. That will change when Trump is thrown out of court. I'm not an expert in this area of law, but I have not heard anyone come-up with any theory on why the courts will allow Trumps' challenges (other than automatic recounts which won't make a difference) to continue.

Biden will take the oath of office on time, 1/20/21.

And Vox still will have its head up its arse.

At some point in the next 2 years, Trump will be indicted for tax fraud.


Uh, yes, there is a law.

Presidential transitions are a lot of work. That's why they are supposed to begin the day after Election Day.

https://presidentialtransition.org/publications/presidential-transition-act-summary/



And as your favorite publication Vox explains, the shortened timespan for the Bush transition was blamed for 9/11.

In fact, based on that experience, the Bush administration spent extra time ensuring a smooth transition to the Obama administration.

https://www.vox.com/mischiefs-of-faction/2016/10/10/13143264/september-11-improved-presidential-transitions









I'm still of the belief that there are enough adults in the White House that will aid in the transition. Trump isn't one of them and thank God he doesn't have any knowledge to transfer.
Let's talk about the practical and not the garbage you read in Vox. Most employees are career civil servants and relatively few of the positions turn over to presidential appointees. The incoming appointees at the agencies are not faced with the lack of continuity that occurs at the White House. Instead, at the agencies, the President's appointees preside over career officials with experience and expertise who provide stability and continuity, and are likely (toy the transition team is likely) to have informal discussions with them before the inauguration, even if done off books. And it is in the senior civil servant's interest to do so, whether it is to help their own job prospects with the new guys or simply facilitate the transition so their area is unimpeded by new leadership. Certainly was the case when I was representing California agencies.

I'm not sure what to say at the White House under Trump. At this juncture, it is hard to see there being much reason to stick around. The defense apparatus at the White House probably is different, with Gates and Flournoy, both old hands in the defense world, being mentioned as the contenders for Defense. That should provide some sense of stability to military brass.
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LMK5
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bearister said:

Thanks....and now a new ALLEGATION I'm giving to tRump:

Pfizer is clearly part of a wider Deep State conspiracy and that is why this news was delayed until after the election.


Pfizer says COVID-19 vaccine is looking 90% effective


https://apnews.com/article/pfizer-vaccine-effective-early-data-4f4ae2e3bad122d17742be22a2240ae8


You gotta admit...
The truth lies somewhere between CNN and Fox.
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oskidunker
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People are loyal to Trump because they hope he will hire them in the private sector later. He might but probably wont pay them. Ahahahahaaa
Bring back It’s It’s to Haas Pavillion!
bearister
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" The Trump family being what it is, expect the illegitimacy myth to be exploited for commercial purposes too. Paradoxically, Trump's loss may well increase the loyalty of his most ardent fans, who will be angry that he has been unfairly deprived of his rightful role. They will now become loyal purchasers of flags, ties, MAGA hats, maybe even degrees at a revived Trump University. They could become the customer base for Trump TV, a media company that will set itself up as the rival to his brand-new enemies on Fox. Maybe they will buy tickets to rallies and other public events where he plays familiar old hits such as "Lock Her Up" and "Stop the Count."....

... As the financial and legal pressures now bear down on Trumpthe hundreds of millions of dollars he owes, the tax and fraud investigations that are on their wayhe will need a political base more than ever. Expect Trump and his children to portray any and every legitimate legal action against them as political persecution: "They are trying to get me because I oppose the fake president." Expect them to continue to seek headlines, day after day, with out-of-control press conferences, carried live on Trump TV, streamed on Facebook, featured on the front page of the New York Post. The prospect of that kind of circus would be designed to put off some prosecutors: No one will want to be trolled by a million MAGAbots or become the focus of online or offline hate mobs."

Trump's Forever Campaign Is Just Getting Started - The Atlantic


https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/trumps-forever-campaign-is-just-getting-started/617021/

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okaydo
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oskidunker said:

People are loyal to Trump because they hope he will hire them in the private sector later. He might but probably wont pay them. Ahahahahaaa

People are loyal to Trump because he's not afraid to use his bully pulpit to bully people. He has a lot of followers who can make your life miserable.
bearister
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okaydo said:

oskidunker said:

People are loyal to Trump because they hope he will hire them in the private sector later. He might but probably wont pay them. Ahahahahaaa

People are loyal to Trump because he's not afraid to use his bully pulpit to bully people. He has a lot of followers who can make your life miserable.


The only good news on that point, and we have first hand knowledge of it here, is that they are not exactly rocket scientists.
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AunBear89
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okaydo said:

oskidunker said:

People are loyal to Trump because they hope he will hire them in the private sector later. He might but probably wont pay them. Ahahahahaaa

People are loyal to Trump because he's not afraid to use his bully pulpit to bully people. He has a lot of followers who can make your life miserable.


I think this is the calculus of folks like Moscow Mitch. He knows that Trup has no legal leg to stand on, but he steps back and tacitly endorses this nonsense so as not to piss of Trumpkins - he needs their money and their votes.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -- (maybe) Benjamin Disraeli, popularized by Mark Twain
okaydo
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So, who will be responsible for escorting Trump out of the White House on January 20, the Secret Service or the Defense Department?

(Okay, probably the Secret Service, but what if ....)


okaydo
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I'll repeat what I've said numerous times: Trump lives in an alternate reality where everything negative that happens to him is a conspiracy and illegitimate. So as a result, he bends real reality to his fake reality and almost always gets his way. I assumed for years that the election would be the time when real reality would catch up to Trump, but of course that wasn't going to happen. (Even if Trump was blown out, I'm pretty sure we would still be in the same position.)

You always hope for the moment like in Joseph McCarthy's case (reality) or in A Face in the Crowd (fiction), where the demigod is finally stopped. But Trump has way too many diehard supporters, making him very powerful.
bearister
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okaydo said:

So, who will be responsible for escorting Trump out of the White House on January 20, the Secret Service or the Defense Department?

(Okay, probably the Secret Service, but what if ....)



They are bringing this guy in for the job:

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going4roses
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The BS already!!! Both parties suck giraffe nuts

Big C
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okaydo said:

I'll repeat what I've said numerous times: Trump lives in an alternate reality where everything negative that happens to him is a conspiracy and illegitimate. So as a result, he bends real reality to his fake reality and almost always gets his way. I assumed for years that the election would be the time when real reality would catch up to Trump, but of course that wasn't going to happen. (Even if Trump was blown out, I'm pretty sure we would still be in the same position.)

You always hope for the moment like in Joseph McCarthy's case (reality) or in A Face in the Crowd (fiction), where the demigod is finally stopped. But Trump has way too many diehard supporters, making him very powerful.

It still amazes me that some 47% of voters chose this guy, but I believe a fair amount of his base is going to find his "sore loser" act less and less compelling as the weeks wear on. Still, that will leave some ten million people who he can still get to attend rallies, buy caps, etc. Of course, if he is incarcerated, all bets are off.
going4roses
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Big C said:

okaydo said:

I'll repeat what I've said numerous times: Trump lives in an alternate reality where everything negative that happens to him is a conspiracy and illegitimate. So as a result, he bends real reality to his fake reality and almost always gets his way. I assumed for years that the election would be the time when real reality would catch up to Trump, but of course that wasn't going to happen. (Even if Trump was blown out, I'm pretty sure we would still be in the same position.)

You always hope for the moment like in Joseph McCarthy's case (reality) or in A Face in the Crowd (fiction), where the demigod is finally stopped. But Trump has way too many diehard supporters, making him very powerful.

It still amazes me that some 47% of voters chose this guy, but I believe a fair amount of his base is going to find his "sore loser" act less and less compelling as the weeks wear on. Still, that will leave some ten million people who he can still get to attend rallies, buy caps, etc. Of course, if he is incarcerated, all bets are off.


I wasn't surprised at all.
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