A (Slightly) Too Early Opponent Preview: Oregon State Beavers

Each conference has to have a cellar dweller. And in the Pac-12 for the past five years, it’s been the Oregon State Beavers more times than not. After a 9-4 season in 2012, where the Beavers finished No. 20 in the nation, it’s been a free-fall to 2017 when Oregon State went 1-11, with its only win coming via a 35-32 besting of Portland State. Over the past five seasons, Oregon State has totaled six conference wins. That stretch included two winless conference seasons in 2015 and 2017. Last season, the Beavers scored one conference win in an overtime defeat of Colorado in Boulder.

Not to offend any OSU fans who might stumble upon this, but the current cellar-dwelling is nearly a blip when compared to the history of the program. It’s also the reason why second-year coach Justin Smith has cooked up some optimism within the fanbase despite going 2-10 his first year leading the Beavers.

For those not versed on Beaver football history, OSU went from 1964 to 2000 without a single bowl game appearance. When the Beavers won seven games in 2000 and went to that bowl game, they did it with a walk-on QB who was now on scholarship. That QB was Jonathan Smith. The next season, Smith, with a couple of future NFL wide-receivers went 11-1, pounded Notre Dame by 32 in the Fiesta Bowl, and finished No. 4 in the nation.

OSU has gone from the cellar to the elite before. And Smith played a big role in that.

Still, this is a different game than it was then and walk-on quarterbacks leading a team to elite status is a very rare story. But, on the other hand, this has been five or so years without a winning season — not decades.

The hope for a rebuild sooner rather than later begins on the offensive side of the ball, where OSU returns 62% of its production from last season. Statistically, the Beavers offense was actually better than Cal’s last season. Part of that includes returning starting QB, Jake Luton, a 1,300-yard rusher in Jermar Jefferson, and all but one of its starting receiving corps. Step one for Smith and the Beavers is keeping Luton healthy. In 2017, he missed most of the season with a spinal injury and in 2018 missed four games with an ankle problem.

Keeping Luton healthy the entire year would probably single-handedly improve the offense from its No. 79 Offensive S&P+ finish last season. But if the injury bug continues, OSU has former blue-chipper and Nebraska QB Tristan Gebbia in the fold. Reports out of OSU’s spring camp said Luton and Gebbia both stood out in drills.

Despite having a proven rusher, a couple of semi-proven passers, and a fairly veteran receiving group, OSU will only have two linemen with previous starting experience. This could make the life of Jefferson and Luton or Gebbia difficult as they figure things out.

Defense is where things get gnarley for the Beavers. From 2005 to 2018, OSU has had two teams make it to the top five in the worst Power Conference defense according to the S&P+ Defensive Efficiency ratings. Here’s a look at the worst five in that timeframe:

• 2018 Oregon State (43.4)
• 2015 Kansas (40.6)
• 2015 Texas Tech (40.3)
• 2017 Oregon State (39.9)
• 2014 Colorado (38.9)

The Beavers have had two historically bad defensive seasons in consecutive years. Last year, they were literally bad at pretty much everything. They couldn’t defend the pass or run. They weren’t good at creating third and long situations. And when they did, they weren’t good at defending third and long situations. They gave up an average of about 46 points and 537 yards per game during the 12-game season.

The worst part is, they really didn’t show signs of improvement throughout the season. OSU opened the season by giving up 77 to the other OSU (Ohio State) and finished it by giving up 55 to Oregon. Even Cal put up 49 on them last season in Corvallis, which was the Bears’ highest-scoring performance without an overtime since 2016 when the Bears 50-balled Texas.

Depending on if you’re a glass-half-full or glass-half-empty person, the potential glimmer of hope is the Beavers return pretty much everyone from last season. Some 86% of its production will return on defense, which is the third-most of all 130 FBS teams. They also add three JUCOs and a pair of former four-star linebacker transfers from Oklahoma and Nebraska. It’s really tough to see the defense getting worse, but it’s also unclear where they’ll improve.

Projection: Cal Bears 45, Oregon State Beavers 10

This won’t be quite the romp that it was last season as the Beavers should be better. But it’s also the Bears’ chance to take out some aggression in a game sandwiched between road trips to Oregon and Utah.

See the other opponent previews:

UC Davis

Washington

North Texas

Ole Miss

Arizona State

Oregon