A (Slightly) Too Early Opponent Preview: Utah Utes
It took a few years for the Utah Utes to get their Pac-12 legs underneath them since joining the conference with Colorado eight seasons ago. But last season, the Utes finally broke through and got that division title and birth to the Pac-12 championship game where they eventually fell to Washington 10-3. Since the conference expanded east in 2011, both newbies have now played in at least one conference title game (Colorado fell to 41-10 in 2016).
While Colorado essentially side-stepped from the Big 12 to the Pac-12, Utah took a step up in competition when they left the Mountain West Conference. But eight years later, and the Utes are a regular in the upper echelons of the Pac-12 and Kyle Wittingham has his team poised to make another run at whoever emerges from the North Division and another shot at a conference title.
Utah has benefitted from at least one main thing their fellow South Division powers have not — stability. While USC was going through three coaches in four years, UCLA’s rebuild was stalling, and the Arizona schools stalled-out at .500-ball after a solid 2014 season, Utah was slowly building.
Last season, after dropping their first two conference games to the Washington schools, Utah won the next seven out of eight games (six out of seven Pac-12 games) to take the South Division title. This season, they are projected favorites in 10 out of 12 games according to the Football Power Index, and 11 out of 12 games, according to the S&P+ projections.
One of the reasons computer models and pundits alike are high on the Utes is the returning offensive production. Utah returns 90% of its offensive production — the third most of all FBS teams in the country. At QB, Tyler Huntley and Jason Shelley — both 1,000+ yard passers — are both returning. Running back, Zach Moss, a 1,000-yard rusher also returns, as do seven of the eight core receivers. Moss was the team’s leading rusher despite getting injured after nine games. The only question mark for players on offense is the line where the Utes return 2.5 starters.
The bigger question mark for the Utes is the loss of offensive coordinator Troy Taylor, who took the head coaching position at Sacramento State. Wittingham replaced Taylor with a name Cal fans might recognize — Andy Ludwig, who was the OC and QBs coach for the Bears from 2009-2010.
There weren’t many defenses as good as Cal’s in the conference or nation last season. But Utah’s was one of those. Last season, the Utes gave up 19.43 points per game while the Bears gave up 20.38. The Utes allowed 315.5 yards per game, while the Bears gave up 317.2. Utah really excels at messing up the run game for opponents. The Utes are stacked at both the end and tackle position and gave up only an average of about 100 rushing yards per game last season.
This year, at the tackle position, the Utes are lead by three upperclassmen that are all 300 pounds or more. John Penisini is 320 pounds and 6-2, while fellow senior Leki Fotu is even bigger at 6-5 and 330 pounds. Junior backup Pita Tonga is 6-1 and 300 pounds. When your smallest defensive tackle is 6-1, 300 pounds, you’re doing things right.
Where the Utes excel in pass rush and run defense, they are not great at defending the pass (once the ball leaves the QB’s hand). The Utes were 43rd last season in passing efficiency and 36th on passing downs, which is what dropped their place in efficiency standings to 19th in the S&P+ and 22nd in DFEI. The Utes return some veteran DBs in Jaylon Johnson and Julian Blackmon, but still, have too many unproven holes to consider the secondary a strength of their defense.
Projection: Utah Utes 28, Cal Bears 10
This is a tough matchup for the Bears. Perhaps the defense keeps it closer and doesn’t give up that many points, but some could come from untimely turnovers. This feels like a game in which the Bears could keep it close enough if they get some breaks (a la last year’s Wazzu game), but the majority of matchups between these two teams heavily favors the Utes.
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