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Cal Basketball

Matt Bradley Enters the Transfer Portal

April 2, 2021
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Junior guard Matt Bradley has reportedly entered the NCAA transfer portal, according to national college basketball writer Jeff Goodman.

A spokesperson from Cal’s athletics department independently verified to Bear Insider that Bradley is indeed currently in the transfer portal.

Bradley has led Cal in scoring the past two seasons. This season, Bradley averaged 18 points and 4.6 rebounds in 22 games. Bradley averaged 17.5 points and 4.9 rebounds per game as a sophomore. For his career, Bradley has shot 40.4% from three-point range.

Just because Bradley has entered the portal doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll leave Cal. Players that put their name in the portal can and do return to their original schools. If Bradley does end up leaving, this would obviously be a huge blow to Cal’s roster next season and Head Coach Mark Fox’s rebuild.

We’ll be updating this story as we learn more.

Discussion from...

Matt Bradley Enters the Transfer Portal

31,923 Views | 95 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by calumnus
helltopay1
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mb..Maybe I overreacted.
wifeisafurd
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helltopay1 said:



our AD is also on the clock.

The reality that has not hit home is the economics behind men's basketball. In this conference, you lose money or barley break even. Maybe that will improve with the suprirrisng strength of the conference teams in this post-season. But over the last several years, investment in men's basketball (not named Arizona, and Arizona went dirty to remain there) is a bad decision. The Larry K firing was all about salary reduction since prior to the C-19 seasons he had it going, and pretty much every other coach is getting a pass for C-19.

An AD has to make an investment of limited funds, and how you raise money. Men's basketball doesn't move the needle. Football at Cal does. It is that simple. Cal was the only conference school that even came close to breaking even this last C-19 impacted year, fundraising is way up, the basketball team sucks and very few people that matter care. I don't like what it is and even pointing this reality out is painful, but it is the AD's job to understand all this.

Now if Wilcox's program doesn't live up to expectation, the AD could be in trouble. But given his economic performance during this last period, he may be the most untouchable person on campus other than the Chancellor.
stu
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I'm OK with Knowlton provided he has learned three things:

* Cal is not Air Force.

* Basketball is not hockey.

* Cal fans will not be happy with a perpetual sub .500 conference record.
BearlyCareAnymore
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wifeisafurd said:

helltopay1 said:



our AD is also on the clock.

The reality that has not hit home is the economics behind men's basketball. In this conference, you lose money or barley break even. Maybe that will improve with the suprirrisng strength of the conference teams in this post-season. But over the last several years, investment in men's basketball (not named Arizona, and Arizona went dirty to remain there) is a bad decision. The Larry K firing was all about salary reduction since prior to the C-19 seasons he had it going, and pretty much every other coach is getting a pass for C-19.

An AD has to make an investment of limited funds, and how you raise money. Men's basketball doesn't move the needle. Football at Cal does. It is that simple. Cal was the only conference school that even came close to breaking even this last C-19 impacted year, fundraising is way up, the basketball team sucks and very few people that matter care. I don't like what it is and even pointing this reality out is painful, but it is the AD's job to understand all this.

Now if Wilcox's program doesn't live up to expectation, the AD could be in trouble. But given his economic performance during this last period, he may be the most untouchable person on campus other than the Chancellor.


WIAF. I have expressed this reality over and over. Cal will not recoup the money it pays more expensive coaches. I have stated that my assumption was that Wyking hire was acknowledging that reality. That basically our best financial move was throwing the Washington Generals on the floor, collecting the conference payout, and saying see you when football season starts. I wouldn't like it, but I would understand.

If we were going to do that, we should have kept Wyking for 5 years then moved on to see if some other roll of the dice might work better.

Firing Wyking and hiring Fox was the worst of all worlds. We are paying out a lot more for the same results.

Either chuck it in, hire a coach for six figures, and focus on football, or genuinely try. I don't even mean try to win championships. Aim for Monty's results or even Braun's. But don't pay a loser coach to lose. That is SO Cal sports. Do everything half assed, pay three quarter assed, and get zero assed results. Either go no ass and save your money or go whole ass and try.

With the amount of money Cal will have paid for head coaching salary and buyouts in the seven years from the date Wyking started, Cal could have put a reasonably competitive contract offer on the table.

Cal needs to decide on a direction. Period. Wyking made sense if we decided to not invest in the program. Wyking + Fox made no sense and Fox on his own made no sense.
BearlyCareAnymore
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mbBear said:

helltopay1 said:

These are the players who left Cal when and after Fox was hired:
Vznover
Sueing
mcNeil
Bradley??

Turn out the lights...thge party is over..

our AD is also on the clock.
The same AD who got a grad year program set up for athletes to get into, got the Football Head coaching position endowed, and is digging out the AD from what was a Title IX nightmare?
The other hands on his clock include a Field Hockey endowment and a large softball field and tennis contribution.
An AD who has to change over the basketball coach...shocking.


I've heard the same kinds of things about Sandy, about Kasser, even heard Williams was good at gladhanding until he wasn't. Then when they can't bring success to the program, suddenly those positives disappear and the next person is awesome at fundraising and administration until they aren't

I'm tired of administrative competence being gold standard. Any reasonably qualified person could do every one of those things and when you couple that with massively whiffing on revenue sport hires, it is just rearranging deck chairs. His whole method for hiring Fox as he described it was a cliche example of how not to go about a hiring process.
socaliganbear
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wifeisafurd said:

helltopay1 said:



our AD is also on the clock.

The reality that has not hit home is the economics behind men's basketball. In this conference, you lose money or barley break even. Maybe that will improve with the suprirrisng strength of the conference teams in this post-season. But over the last several years, investment in men's basketball (not named Arizona, and Arizona went dirty to remain there) is a bad decision. The Larry K firing was all about salary reduction since prior to the C-19 seasons he had it going, and pretty much every other coach is getting a pass for C-19.

An AD has to make an investment of limited funds, and how you raise money. Men's basketball doesn't move the needle. Football at Cal does. It is that simple. Cal was the only conference school that even came close to breaking even this last C-19 impacted year, fundraising is way up, the basketball team sucks and very few people that matter care. I don't like what it is and even pointing this reality out is painful, but it is the AD's job to understand all this.

Now if Wilcox's program doesn't live up to expectation, the AD could be in trouble. But given his economic performance during this last period, he may be the most untouchable person on campus other than the Chancellor.


This theory would only work if Cal itself is all in on football actually succeeding. Which is a Jupiter sized question mark. A much bigger question mark even than can Wilcox actually post a winning conference record or surpass Dykes' best season, for sure. All the history points to... prob not.
4thGenCal
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OaktownBear said:

Civil Bear said:

KoreAmBear said:

calumnus said:

KoreAmBear said:

helltopay1 said:

Remember the time (s) when Fox did not start Bradley. did that indicate a rift??
At UCLA second half. Probably didn't help.


There were three games Bradley played in but did not start. Latest one was against Stanford in the PAC-12 tournament.

It was clearly some sort of disciplining.

I think we better hope Alajiki is a good one.
Anyanwu is supposed to be the highest rated and our hope for instant minutes, but without Bradley it won't matter much.

The @UCLA game was the head scratcher though and most disrespectful to Bradley. Fox pulled him early in the second half and he didn't see the floor the rest of the game. The Fox said in the interview afterwards like he was trying to teach him a lesson something about "he is a good player and blah blah blah." Yah he is our best player by a mile and to say that when you benched him for a half basically conceding the game that early was insulting. Fox is not Coach K or Jim Boeheim where he can be uncouth and get away with it. He is the coach of a last place team. There is no room for that BS.
I respectably disagree here. For Fox to have any kind of chance he needs to be the one in control. We saw what happened with Braun when he loosened the reigns with the highly-rated Powe, Ubaka, Kately, McGuire class.


He is already in control. What he needs to be is man enough not to have to prove it. What he did to Bradley in that game to prove a point was massive overkill. Take him out for a minute and talk to him like a man. If you have to do what Fox did, you have already lost respect.

Braun's problem with that class was not control. It was that Kately and very much McGuire should not have been part of it. Being a disciplinarian would not have saved the situation. Braun knew the issues going in. He bet he could manage them and lost that bet hard.
True on your first point - they did have clashes, but to be objective, nearly all players will clash with their HC - especially the "alpha male" player who is intense and feels his way is often best. Yes to a number of factors weighing in on MB decision - a primary one was that it wore him down to experience constant losing and related to that, less exposure to his play. Competing against, watching MM and seeing/hearing about players that He felt were nowhere as good as he is, became a rallying point to play elsewhere. Matt is a Great young man separate from Bball and he and Dad felt that his post college playing would be enhanced by playing for a more competitive/winning program.
His phone is ringing off the hook with HC's reaching out to him. And he will be eligible to play anywhere, right away. Sad to see a wonderful representative of the Program leave, but totally understand his perspective and very thankful for his tremendous efforts while at Cal.
PaulCali
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We greatly need a dedicated practice facility for men's and women's indoor sports. This is a big deal.
oskidunker
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4thGenCal said:

OaktownBear said:

Civil Bear said:

KoreAmBear said:

calumnus said:

KoreAmBear said:

helltopay1 said:

Remember the time (s) when Fox did not start Bradley. did that indicate a rift??
At UCLA second half. Probably didn't help.


There were three games Bradley played in but did not start. Latest one was against Stanford in the PAC-12 tournament.

It was clearly some sort of disciplining.

I think we better hope Alajiki is a good one.
Anyanwu is supposed to be the highest rated and our hope for instant minutes, but without Bradley it won't matter much.

The @UCLA game was the head scratcher though and most disrespectful to Bradley. Fox pulled him early in the second half and he didn't see the floor the rest of the game. The Fox said in the interview afterwards like he was trying to teach him a lesson something about "he is a good player and blah blah blah." Yah he is our best player by a mile and to say that when you benched him for a half basically conceding the game that early was insulting. Fox is not Coach K or Jim Boeheim where he can be uncouth and get away with it. He is the coach of a last place team. There is no room for that BS.
I respectably disagree here. For Fox to have any kind of chance he needs to be the one in control. We saw what happened with Braun when he loosened the reigns with the highly-rated Powe, Ubaka, Kately, McGuire class.


He is already in control. What he needs to be is man enough not to have to prove it. What he did to Bradley in that game to prove a point was massive overkill. Take him out for a minute and talk to him like a man. If you have to do what Fox did, you have already lost respect.

Braun's problem with that class was not control. It was that Kately and very much McGuire should not have been part of it. Being a disciplinarian would not have saved the situation. Braun knew the issues going in. He bet he could manage them and lost that bet hard.
True on your first point - they did have clashes, but to be objective, nearly all players will clash with their HC - especially the "alpha male" player who is intense and feels his way is often best. Yes to a number of factors weighing in on MB decision - a primary one was that it wore him down to experience constant losing and related to that, less exposure to his play. Competing against, watching MM and seeing/hearing about players that He felt were nowhere as good as he is, became a rallying point to play elsewhere. Matt is a Great young man separate from Bball and he and Dad felt that his post college playing would be enhanced by playing for a more competitive/winning program.
His phone is ringing off the hook with HC's reaching out to him. And he will be eligible to play anywhere, right away. Sad to see a wonderful representative of the Program leave, but totally understand his perspective and very thankful for his tremendous efforts while at Cal.
Who is MM?
Go Bears!
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BearSD
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Deutsch said:

when I summoned the courage to watch this season's team I saw them do pretty much what others were doing (X's and O"s) but at a talent disadvantage. The bottom line for me therefore is recruiting (and in this day and age, retention). So, for me, Fox is a good enough technical guy, and can shape young men, but if he can't attract or retain competitive talent, he should be someone's great assistant - but not a head coach.
Right. The issue isn't one player, even when it's Bradley. The issue is that the roster's talent disadvantage from top to bottom is huge. If Fox can't bring in multiple players with sufficient talent to get the Bears to at least the middle of the Pac-12 in overall talent, then he's not the right guy for this job. Being good at "coaching them up" isn't enough when the talent level is so low that finishing in 9th place would be overachieving.

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TalcAboutIt
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I cannot agree more. Athletic Director Jim Knowlton did not do his due diligence with the Mark Fox hire. Fox was 3-17 in his 2nd year coaching, which is no better than Wyking Jones 2-16 record in his first year. At least Jones brought recruits. Knowlton needs to make this right. We need a coach that can deliver better recruiting classes. Plus, Fox doesn't seem to know his personal (players). He played Lars Thiemann over Andre Kelly, why? Didn't want Paris Austin last season, why? Didn't play Thorpe, why? Didn't play Foreman or Kelly in a game we could have won against Colorado, why? Shall I continue... Matt Bradley transferring should be a wake up call for Knowlton.
TalcAboutIt
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Let's be honest. Athletic Director Jim Knowlton did not do his due diligence with the Mark Fox hire. Fox was 3-17 in his 2nd year coaching, which is no better than Wyking Jones 2-16 record in his first year. At least Jones brought recruits. Knowlton needs to make this right. We need a coach that can deliver better recruiting classes. Plus, Fox doesn't seem to know his personal (players). He played Lars Thiemann over Andre Kelly, why? Didn't want Paris Austin last season, why? Didn't play Thorpe, why? Didn't play Foreman or Kelly in a game we could have won against Colorado, why? Shall I continue... Matt Bradley transferring should be a wake up call for Knowlton.
calumnus
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TalcAboutIt said:

I cannot agree more. Athletic Director Jim Knowlton did not do his due diligence with the Mark Fox hire. Fox was 3-17 in his 2nd year coaching, which is no better than Wyking Jones 2-16 record in his first year. At least Jones brought recruits. Knowlton needs to make this right. We need a coach that can deliver better recruiting classes. Plus, Fox doesn't seem to know his personal (players). He played Lars Thiemann over Andre Kelly, why? Didn't want Paris Austin last season, why? Didn't play Thorpe, why? Didn't play Foreman or Kelly in a game we could have won against Colorado, why? Shall I continue... Matt Bradley transferring should be a wake up call for Knowlton.


Gave Betley the most minutes on the team and had him take the most three point attempts on the team and in the entire conference.
LodeBear
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fox needs to go. in fact. the coaches for volleyball. field hockey, soccer, water polo, mens gym. beach volleyball, womens basketball too . the only elite level coaches are the womens gymnastics coaches, swimming and crew.. even the tennis coaches and tennis teams are not very good and that is my sport. basketball should be better and that goes for the womens BB team too.. name a team that has won a pac12 championship recently let alone a NCAA one. I keep my fingers crossed for football, baseball and softball. womens BB had one win. womens volleyball had one win. mens swimining won pac 12 this year and last year NCAA. womens swimming pac 12 this year. Rugby is really good but doesnt count for NCAA. Do the really elite coaches not want to come to Cal.? even in the other sports? is it money or not getting elite recruits or is it just CAL. any opinions? I am frustrated. probably covid related fatigue! i support many teams with donations, but still frustrating.
HoopDreams
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calumnus said:

Gave Betley the most minutes on the team and had him take the most three point attempts on the team and in the entire conference.


Agree, that was a coaching mistake

At one point it was clear Betley was in a shooting slump. Sometimes you have to let a player bust out of a shooting slump, but Fox rode him too long

Ditto Foreman. I know Foreman had the green light but the number of shots he was allowed to take was not smart basketball

Maybe Fox got blinded with the OOC play of both players, but he tried to force it for too long and we lost several games because of it
calumnus
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OaktownBear said:

mbBear said:

helltopay1 said:

These are the players who left Cal when and after Fox was hired:
Vznover
Sueing
mcNeil
Bradley??

Turn out the lights...thge party is over..

our AD is also on the clock.
The same AD who got a grad year program set up for athletes to get into, got the Football Head coaching position endowed, and is digging out the AD from what was a Title IX nightmare?
The other hands on his clock include a Field Hockey endowment and a large softball field and tennis contribution.
An AD who has to change over the basketball coach...shocking.


I've heard the same kinds of things about Sandy, about Kasser, even heard Williams was good at gladhanding until he wasn't. Then when they can't bring success to the program, suddenly those positives disappear and the next person is awesome at fundraising and administration until they aren't

I'm tired of administrative competence being gold standard. Any reasonably qualified person could do every one of those things and when you couple that with massively whiffing on revenue sport hires, it is just rearranging deck chairs. His whole method for hiring Fox as he described it was a cliche example of how not to go about a hiring process.


The guy that was seemingly a good AD was Gladstone. A champion crew coach. A Cal guy. Crew has no scholarships. No individual glory. You get up early and it is freaking cold. How do you recruit guys to the crew team and help them become champions in a way that they almost all love the coach? That is leadership. Gladstone clearly had it and recognized it in Tedford, then an assistant at Oregon with no head coaching experience.

People talk about coaches needing to "take control" but that is not leadership. In this day and age authoritarian managers and disciplinarians cost their companies, teams and organizations $billions. Employees that are not listened to can easily get jobs elsewhere. Pro players can become free agents. NCAA players can go to the transfer portal. Players can just not sign with you.

Now authoritarianism can work in the short run and often does. You often see a guy who is a hardass follow a good recruiter and have some initial success, often greater than his predecessor, but it is never sustainable.

You need a coach that is a leader. A guy that kids like and/or admire. Having achieved their goal of playing in the NBA is a huge selling point. It gives them credibility. A guy that cares about and relates to them as people and does not just see them as chess pieces to be controlled and played for his own glory. Best is when they can see that they will get better as players and have fun along the way. Why play sports if it is not fun? Going to Cal as a student was a blast. No place I'd rather have gone to. I want a coach that gets that and can convey that to recruits.

Cal students are also taught to challenge assumptions and think for themselves. Aaron Rodgers when asked by the 49ers to do some stupid test asked "why?" Desean Jackson when told by Cal's weight trainer that he needed to bulk up, refused and continued with his own regime focused on speed, flexibility and agility. Jaylen Brown was attracted to Cal from Atlanta because of our reputation for deep thinking and social activism. A coach at Cal needs to embrace players like that because that is what Cal students are and that is our comparative advantage, that is our brand, that is who we are. He or she needs to be able to explain to smart players why they are being asked to do something, how it will benefit them and the team. Just like a Cal professor needs to explain why to his or her students. A coach at Cal also needs to listen to his smart players, incorporate their ideas. As any good manager knows, that is the best way to get buy in and motivate your smart employees.

With the right coach, Cal will both attract good players and help them to get better and play better as a team.
stu
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Quote:

You need a coach that is a leader. A guy that kids like and/or admire. Having achieved their goal of playing in the NBA is a huge selling point. It gives them credibility. A guy that cares about and relates to them as people and does not just see them as chess pieces to be controlled and played for his own glory. Best is when they can see that they will get better as players and have fun along the way. Why play sports if it is not fun? Going to Cal as a student was a blast. No place I'd rather have gone to. I want a coach that gets that and can convey that to recruits.
Great point! I'll add that a coach, like any teacher, needs to respect their students.
calumnus
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HoopDreams said:

calumnus said:

Gave Betley the most minutes on the team and had him take the most three point attempts on the team and in the entire conference.


Agree, that was a coaching mistake

At one point it was clear Betley was in a shooting slump. Sometimes you have to let a player bust out of a shooting slump, but Fox rode him too long

Ditto Foreman. I know Foreman had the green light but the number of shots he was allowed to take was not smart basketball

Maybe Fox got blinded with the OOC play of both players, but he tried to force it for too long and we lost several games because of it


Bradley and Anticevich were good 3 point shooters last year and this year. Celestine shot threes at .414 and played good defense. Bentley is a grad transfer and was 7th on the team in 3 pt percentage and was a liability on defense. Yet he ended up playing more minutes than anyone else and taking more 3 pt shots than anyone else in the Pax-12. It was just baffling to me. At some point early on the season you reward Bradley and Anticevich by getting them shots and you reward Celestine for his good play and make it clear he is your future. The huge commitment and focus on a one year player who was not producing and was a liability ? When he is being greatly outplayed by a freshman who has upside? I just don't get that. I mean, there are plenty of high school coaches that can get that much right.
bearsandgiants
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stu said:

I'm not sure Fox knows what to do with one player who is so much better than the others. Not a good situation for anyone involved.
Recruit better players?
bearsandgiants
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We used to be really good at the sports that don't matter. Now we're barely good in anything. AD needs to go. Fox needs to go. And now the football is "well endowed," donation money should be used for stepping up the hires of every other sport.
BeachedBear
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calumnus said:

HoopDreams said:

calumnus said:

Gave Betley the most minutes on the team and had him take the most three point attempts on the team and in the entire conference.


Agree, that was a coaching mistake

At one point it was clear Betley was in a shooting slump. Sometimes you have to let a player bust out of a shooting slump, but Fox rode him too long

Ditto Foreman. I know Foreman had the green light but the number of shots he was allowed to take was not smart basketball

Maybe Fox got blinded with the OOC play of both players, but he tried to force it for too long and we lost several games because of it


Bradley and Anticevich were good 3 point shooters last year and this year. Celestine shot threes at .414 and played good defense. Bentley is a grad transfer and was 7th on the team in 3 pt percentage and was a liability on defense. Yet he ended up playing more minutes than anyone else and taking more 3 pt shots than anyone else in the Pax-12. It was just baffling to me. At some point early on the season you reward Bradley and Anticevich by getting them shots and you reward Celestine for his good play and make it clear he is your future. The huge commitment and focus on a one year player who was not producing and was a liability ? When he is being greatly outplayed by a freshman who has upside? I just don't get that. I mean, there are plenty of high school coaches that can get that much right.
Any analysis of what PT would have been if Bradley and Anticevich were not injured? Betley had a nice 'looking' shot, but his impact at P12 competition did not warrant his level of rotation.
bearister
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bearsandgiants said:

We used to be really good at the sports that don't matter. Now we're barely good in anything. AD needs to go. Fox needs to go. And now the football is "well endowed," donation money should be used for stepping up the hires of every other sport.


We need a patron like the Liege Lord of Oregon that is making out like a bandit and has lots of extra walkin' round money to lay on us.

" The shoe manufacturer Nike didn't pay a dime of federal income tax on almost $2.9 billion of U.S. pretax income last year, instead enjoying a $109 million tax rebate." itep.org
Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
Bobodeluxe
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bearister said:

bearsandgiants said:

We used to be really good at the sports that don't matter. Now we're barely good in anything. AD needs to go. Fox needs to go. And now the football is "well endowed," donation money should be used for stepping up the hires of every other sport.


We need a patron like the Liege Lord of Oregon that is making out like a bandit and has lots of extra walkin' round money to lay on us.

" The shoe manufacturer Nike didn't pay a dime of federal income tax on almost $2.9 billion of U.S. pretax income last year, instead enjoying a $109 million tax rebate." itep.org
Why do YOU hate Murkuh?
mbBear
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bearsandgiants said:

We used to be really good at the sports that don't matter. Now we're barely good in anything. AD needs to go. Fox needs to go. And now the football is "well endowed," donation money should be used for stepping up the hires of every other sport.
Men's swimming finished 2nd in the NCAA's...Women finished 4th. Women's gymnastics, 5th ranked, just recorded the 2nd best team score in school history, won their regional, heading to the finals. Men's Water Polo finished 4th....
I won't list the AD accomplishments again...okay, except he worked his ass off to get the grad program...that counts for a lot so worth repeating.
socaltownie
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mbBear said:

bearsandgiants said:

We used to be really good at the sports that don't matter. Now we're barely good in anything. AD needs to go. Fox needs to go. And now the football is "well endowed," donation money should be used for stepping up the hires of every other sport.
Men's swimming finished 2nd in the NCAA's...Women finished 4th. Women's gymnastics, 5th ranked, just recorded the 2nd best team score in school history, won their regional, heading to the finals. Men's Water Polo finished 4th....
I won't list the AD accomplishments again...okay, except he worked his ass off to get the grad program...that counts for a lot so worth repeating.
I agree. Overall JK is a solid hire. BB is a notable exception but I think we also need to understand that he was new to the job, it was an extraordinarily bad situation he was handed and really his predecessor is to blame.

But what JK does need to do is be planning on "what next". It seems highly doubtful that the Mark Fox experiment is going to work out. Feels like we are in the Dick Kutchen era - a hire that probably made some sense on paper but which, when confronted with the realities of the Pac12 (see below) were going to be a real problem for Fox.

To me I keep coming back to Pasternick. His record at UCSB is pretty solid. We know he wants the Cal job. There are pretty solid rumors that there are well heeled alumns in his corner and that part of that support could be the practice facility. It seems, honestly, a no brainer to pull that trigger and bring him on board. Worst case? He doesn't work, you move on, but now with a dedicated practice facility either paid for or built.

I would also be fine with Dennis or Travis or (I know I am a voice of one) Turner. But Mark Fox is a square peg in a round hole.



Footnote: SCT's take on the Pac12

The structural problem for Cal is that it competes in a league which isn't that RPI/Metric strong (because we just don't have a good track record of performing well in December and it is hard to get good schools to come West of the Mississippi to play us so pac12 is traveling - hurts the conference's metrics) BUT which has 3 schools (and perhaps 4) with strong structural advantages which make it, all things being equal, hard to top: UCLA, Zona and Oregon. If people really need to have it laid out for them (and some Cal fans are delusional so I get why) it is not a reach to predict, absent any other knowledge than team names, that those schools will finish above Cal in the standings.

That leaves a VERY small margin for error. To get to the dance you really need to finish no worse than 4th, Just very rare that the conference is getting 5 invites and if they do then they are in the dreading seeds of death which in the pod system creates high hurdles to overcome.

Now can Cal break into the top 3? Sure. It has in the past. But usually in era's where there were strange things going on at the big 3 that caused them to slip: Lute's retirement, bad hiring decisions at Westwood, the Ernie Kent era. And it isn't like we don't have another tier of schools striving for that 4th slot (USC, FUrd, Washington, ASU, possibly now Tinkle and OSU).
BearlyCareAnymore
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mbBear said:

bearsandgiants said:

We used to be really good at the sports that don't matter. Now we're barely good in anything. AD needs to go. Fox needs to go. And now the football is "well endowed," donation money should be used for stepping up the hires of every other sport.
Men's swimming finished 2nd in the NCAA's...Women finished 4th. Women's gymnastics, 5th ranked, just recorded the 2nd best team score in school history, won their regional, heading to the finals. Men's Water Polo finished 4th....
I won't list the AD accomplishments again...okay, except he worked his ass off to get the grad program...that counts for a lot so worth repeating.


The grad program is worthless if you whiff on the coaching hires. You have just opened up more slots for players that can't play at the PAC-12 level. I appreciate the leg work to get it done, but without a coach that attracts talented graduate transfers, the impact is minimal
socaltownie
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OaktownBear said:

mbBear said:

bearsandgiants said:

We used to be really good at the sports that don't matter. Now we're barely good in anything. AD needs to go. Fox needs to go. And now the football is "well endowed," donation money should be used for stepping up the hires of every other sport.
Men's swimming finished 2nd in the NCAA's...Women finished 4th. Women's gymnastics, 5th ranked, just recorded the 2nd best team score in school history, won their regional, heading to the finals. Men's Water Polo finished 4th....
I won't list the AD accomplishments again...okay, except he worked his ass off to get the grad program...that counts for a lot so worth repeating.


The grad program is worthless if you whiff on the coaching hires. You have just opened up more slots for players that can't play at the PAC-12 level. I appreciate the leg work to get it done, but without a coach that attracts talented graduate transfers, the impact is minimal
OK. Going to chide you just a bit for being too much of a negative nelly. At least we have checked that box OFF. A great challenge for Monty was that we couldn't leverage that pipeline when it started to open up - while Altman and Lute/Doughboy were.

Is Fox the guy to do that? No. But at least that pathway is now open and so hopefully the next guy up will be better than the personality challenged guy we have right now.
HoopDreams
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BeachedBear said:

calumnus said:

HoopDreams said:

calumnus said:

Gave Betley the most minutes on the team and had him take the most three point attempts on the team and in the entire conference.


Agree, that was a coaching mistake

At one point it was clear Betley was in a shooting slump. Sometimes you have to let a player bust out of a shooting slump, but Fox rode him too long

Ditto Foreman. I know Foreman had the green light but the number of shots he was allowed to take was not smart basketball

Maybe Fox got blinded with the OOC play of both players, but he tried to force it for too long and we lost several games because of it


Bradley and Anticevich were good 3 point shooters last year and this year. Celestine shot threes at .414 and played good defense. Bentley is a grad transfer and was 7th on the team in 3 pt percentage and was a liability on defense. Yet he ended up playing more minutes than anyone else and taking more 3 pt shots than anyone else in the Pax-12. It was just baffling to me. At some point early on the season you reward Bradley and Anticevich by getting them shots and you reward Celestine for his good play and make it clear he is your future. The huge commitment and focus on a one year player who was not producing and was a liability ? When he is being greatly outplayed by a freshman who has upside? I just don't get that. I mean, there are plenty of high school coaches that can get that much right.
Any analysis of what PT would have been if Bradley and Anticevich were not injured? Betley had a nice 'looking' shot, but his impact at P12 competition did not warrant his level of rotation.
good point. when one or both of them were out, I'd expect more shots would go to Betley

I didn't go back to see what the stats were in those games
HoopDreams
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socaltownie said:

mbBear said:

bearsandgiants said:

We used to be really good at the sports that don't matter. Now we're barely good in anything. AD needs to go. Fox needs to go. And now the football is "well endowed," donation money should be used for stepping up the hires of every other sport.
Men's swimming finished 2nd in the NCAA's...Women finished 4th. Women's gymnastics, 5th ranked, just recorded the 2nd best team score in school history, won their regional, heading to the finals. Men's Water Polo finished 4th....
I won't list the AD accomplishments again...okay, except he worked his ass off to get the grad program...that counts for a lot so worth repeating.
I agree. Overall JK is a solid hire. BB is a notable exception but I think we also need to understand that he was new to the job, it was an extraordinarily bad situation he was handed and really his predecessor is to blame.

But what JK does need to do is be planning on "what next". It seems highly doubtful that the Mark Fox experiment is going to work out. Feels like we are in the Dick Kutchen era - a hire that probably made some sense on paper but which, when confronted with the realities of the Pac12 (see below) were going to be a real problem for Fox.

To me I keep coming back to Pasternick. His record at UCSB is pretty solid. We know he wants the Cal job. There are pretty solid rumors that there are well heeled alumns in his corner and that part of that support could be the practice facility. It seems, honestly, a no brainer to pull that trigger and bring him on board. Worst case? He doesn't work, you move on, but now with a dedicated practice facility either paid for or built.

I would also be fine with Dennis or Travis or (I know I am a voice of one) Turner. But Mark Fox is a square peg in a round hole.



Footnote: SCT's take on the Pac12

The structural problem for Cal is that it competes in a league which isn't that RPI/Metric strong (because we just don't have a good track record of performing well in December and it is hard to get good schools to come West of the Mississippi to play us so pac12 is traveling - hurts the conference's metrics) BUT which has 3 schools (and perhaps 4) with strong structural advantages which make it, all things being equal, hard to top: UCLA, Zona and Oregon. If people really need to have it laid out for them (and some Cal fans are delusional so I get why) it is not a reach to predict, absent any other knowledge than team names, that those schools will finish above Cal in the standings.

That leaves a VERY small margin for error. To get to the dance you really need to finish no worse than 4th, Just very rare that the conference is getting 5 invites and if they do then they are in the dreading seeds of death which in the pod system creates high hurdles to overcome.

Now can Cal break into the top 3? Sure. It has in the past. But usually in era's where there were strange things going on at the big 3 that caused them to slip: Lute's retirement, bad hiring decisions at Westwood, the Ernie Kent era. And it isn't like we don't have another tier of schools striving for that 4th slot (USC, FUrd, Washington, ASU, possibly now Tinkle and OSU).
there was a hotline article that talked about how the Pac12 had a task force working on getting more teams into the Dance

they used analytics, and the selection criteria to help teams optimize their schedule

they increased the number of conference games to increase our metrics, and also used the covid season to schedule a makeup week, and strategically matched up teams to maximize the metrics again

they are thinking of keeping the makeup week in future seasons to do the same (article says some conferences have been doing this)

they pointed to this season as bearing fruit, saying that AZ would have likely also made the tournament if they were eligible

anyway, the point is that the Pac can more regularly see 5+ teams in the tournament, rather than the 4 teams which has perhaps been the norm recently

I would also like to see each Pac12 team play at least one of their OOC games in the month of Feb
wifeisafurd
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OaktownBear said:

wifeisafurd said:

helltopay1 said:



our AD is also on the clock.

The reality that has not hit home is the economics behind men's basketball. In this conference, you lose money or barley break even. Maybe that will improve with the suprirrisng strength of the conference teams in this post-season. But over the last several years, investment in men's basketball (not named Arizona, and Arizona went dirty to remain there) is a bad decision. The Larry K firing was all about salary reduction since prior to the C-19 seasons he had it going, and pretty much every other coach is getting a pass for C-19.

An AD has to make an investment of limited funds, and how you raise money. Men's basketball doesn't move the needle. Football at Cal does. It is that simple. Cal was the only conference school that even came close to breaking even this last C-19 impacted year, fundraising is way up, the basketball team sucks and very few people that matter care. I don't like what it is and even pointing this reality out is painful, but it is the AD's job to understand all this.

Now if Wilcox's program doesn't live up to expectation, the AD could be in trouble. But given his economic performance during this last period, he may be the most untouchable person on campus other than the Chancellor.


WIAF. I have expressed this reality over and over. Cal will not recoup the money it pays more expensive coaches. I have stated that my assumption was that Wyking hire was acknowledging that reality. That basically our best financial move was throwing the Washington Generals on the floor, collecting the conference payout, and saying see you when football season starts. I wouldn't like it, but I would understand.

If we were going to do that, we should have kept Wyking for 5 years then moved on to see if some other roll of the dice might work better.

Firing Wyking and hiring Fox was the worst of all worlds. We are paying out a lot more for the same results.

Either chuck it in, hire a coach for six figures, and focus on football, or genuinely try. I don't even mean try to win championships. Aim for Monty's results or even Braun's. But don't pay a loser coach to lose. That is SO Cal sports. Do everything half assed, pay three quarter assed, and get zero assed results. Either go no ass and save your money or go whole ass and try.

With the amount of money Cal will have paid for head coaching salary and buyouts in the seven years from the date Wyking started, Cal could have put a reasonably competitive contract offer on the table.

Cal needs to decide on a direction. Period. Wyking made sense if we decided to not invest in the program. Wyking + Fox made no sense and Fox on his own made no sense.
Well okay, it looks like Wyking and Fox makes no sense. Paying off Wyking is a sunk cost at this point. Hiring Fox is not something that is retroactively changed. You don't get to change your decision tree.

The question is do you invest a whole lot more money moving forward. I suspect the answer from the AD is give Fox another year, reduce the buy-out and make a decision down the road (also known as kick the can down the road). The decision process is impacted by the sins of the path, but you still have to make decision on where you are now. At the highly institutional setting that these decisions are made at Cal, this is the result that I think is inevitable.

My view is if you determine Fox is not the guy (and you should have enough experience presently to figure that out), get someone that can move you back to Monty/Braun/Martin level within the parameters under which a basketball program can operate at Cal.

Gonzaga didn't build their program overnight. They produced sustainable results, which led to more money, fans and better players, and they invested at proper times. And it was not just simply wining. They have a great graduation rate, etc. Monty and Martin set the program at a competitive level (admittedly Martin left the program with a talent level that meant a rebuild year though if his frosh class had stayed, it would have been better that 2-16), and it all went very wrong from there. It was not a decent coach, Monson, being replaced by understudy Few.
socaltownie
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HoopDreams said:

socaltownie said:

mbBear said:

bearsandgiants said:

We used to be really good at the sports that don't matter. Now we're barely good in anything. AD needs to go. Fox needs to go. And now the football is "well endowed," donation money should be used for stepping up the hires of every other sport.
Men's swimming finished 2nd in the NCAA's...Women finished 4th. Women's gymnastics, 5th ranked, just recorded the 2nd best team score in school history, won their regional, heading to the finals. Men's Water Polo finished 4th....
I won't list the AD accomplishments again...okay, except he worked his ass off to get the grad program...that counts for a lot so worth repeating.
I agree. Overall JK is a solid hire. BB is a notable exception but I think we also need to understand that he was new to the job, it was an extraordinarily bad situation he was handed and really his predecessor is to blame.

But what JK does need to do is be planning on "what next". It seems highly doubtful that the Mark Fox experiment is going to work out. Feels like we are in the Dick Kutchen era - a hire that probably made some sense on paper but which, when confronted with the realities of the Pac12 (see below) were going to be a real problem for Fox.

To me I keep coming back to Pasternick. His record at UCSB is pretty solid. We know he wants the Cal job. There are pretty solid rumors that there are well heeled alumns in his corner and that part of that support could be the practice facility. It seems, honestly, a no brainer to pull that trigger and bring him on board. Worst case? He doesn't work, you move on, but now with a dedicated practice facility either paid for or built.

I would also be fine with Dennis or Travis or (I know I am a voice of one) Turner. But Mark Fox is a square peg in a round hole.



Footnote: SCT's take on the Pac12

The structural problem for Cal is that it competes in a league which isn't that RPI/Metric strong (because we just don't have a good track record of performing well in December and it is hard to get good schools to come West of the Mississippi to play us so pac12 is traveling - hurts the conference's metrics) BUT which has 3 schools (and perhaps 4) with strong structural advantages which make it, all things being equal, hard to top: UCLA, Zona and Oregon. If people really need to have it laid out for them (and some Cal fans are delusional so I get why) it is not a reach to predict, absent any other knowledge than team names, that those schools will finish above Cal in the standings.

That leaves a VERY small margin for error. To get to the dance you really need to finish no worse than 4th, Just very rare that the conference is getting 5 invites and if they do then they are in the dreading seeds of death which in the pod system creates high hurdles to overcome.

Now can Cal break into the top 3? Sure. It has in the past. But usually in era's where there were strange things going on at the big 3 that caused them to slip: Lute's retirement, bad hiring decisions at Westwood, the Ernie Kent era. And it isn't like we don't have another tier of schools striving for that 4th slot (USC, FUrd, Washington, ASU, possibly now Tinkle and OSU).
there was a hotline article that talked about how the Pac12 had a task force working on getting more teams into the Dance

they used analytics, and the selection criteria to help teams optimize their schedule

they increased the number of conference games to increase our metrics, and also used the covid season to schedule a makeup week, and strategically matched up teams to maximize the metrics again

they are thinking of keeping the makeup week in future seasons to do the same (article says some conferences have been doing this)

they pointed to this season as bearing fruit, saying that AZ would have likely also made the tournament if they were eligible

anyway, the point is that the Pac can more regularly see 5+ teams in the tournament, rather than the 4 teams which has perhaps been the norm recently

I would also like to see each Pac12 team play at least one of their OOC games in the month of F
The problem is December (and November). You are an East Coast AD. Your options are to fly 2 hours (or even bus) to a P5 one state over (thing Syracuse to Ohio State) or Fly out to California. It is a no brainer. So traditionally it has been very hard for the conference to sustain Home and Home against other P5.

Then you add in that most of the "mid-major" conferences on the West Coast are not that good. Yes, if you can beat SDSU (which the conference has not been able to do) you get a nice boost but playing USF or Fresnick or Pacific Luthern? Not so much.

It is structural. I don't see this changing absent the conference just going gaga in the invitational tournaments for several years in a row.
socaltownie
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wifeisafurd said:

OaktownBear said:

wifeisafurd said:

helltopay1 said:



our AD is also on the clock.

The reality that has not hit home is the economics behind men's basketball. In this conference, you lose money or barley break even. Maybe that will improve with the suprirrisng strength of the conference teams in this post-season. But over the last several years, investment in men's basketball (not named Arizona, and Arizona went dirty to remain there) is a bad decision. The Larry K firing was all about salary reduction since prior to the C-19 seasons he had it going, and pretty much every other coach is getting a pass for C-19.

An AD has to make an investment of limited funds, and how you raise money. Men's basketball doesn't move the needle. Football at Cal does. It is that simple. Cal was the only conference school that even came close to breaking even this last C-19 impacted year, fundraising is way up, the basketball team sucks and very few people that matter care. I don't like what it is and even pointing this reality out is painful, but it is the AD's job to understand all this.

Now if Wilcox's program doesn't live up to expectation, the AD could be in trouble. But given his economic performance during this last period, he may be the most untouchable person on campus other than the Chancellor.


WIAF. I have expressed this reality over and over. Cal will not recoup the money it pays more expensive coaches. I have stated that my assumption was that Wyking hire was acknowledging that reality. That basically our best financial move was throwing the Washington Generals on the floor, collecting the conference payout, and saying see you when football season starts. I wouldn't like it, but I would understand.

If we were going to do that, we should have kept Wyking for 5 years then moved on to see if some other roll of the dice might work better.

Firing Wyking and hiring Fox was the worst of all worlds. We are paying out a lot more for the same results.

Either chuck it in, hire a coach for six figures, and focus on football, or genuinely try. I don't even mean try to win championships. Aim for Monty's results or even Braun's. But don't pay a loser coach to lose. That is SO Cal sports. Do everything half assed, pay three quarter assed, and get zero assed results. Either go no ass and save your money or go whole ass and try.

With the amount of money Cal will have paid for head coaching salary and buyouts in the seven years from the date Wyking started, Cal could have put a reasonably competitive contract offer on the table.

Cal needs to decide on a direction. Period. Wyking made sense if we decided to not invest in the program. Wyking + Fox made no sense and Fox on his own made no sense.
Well okay, it looks like Wyking and Fox makes no sense. Paying off Wyking is a sunk cost at this point. Hiring Fox is not something that is retroactively changed. You don't get to change your decision tree.

The question is do you invest a whole lot more money moving forward. I suspect the answer from the AD is give Fox another year, reduce the buy-out and make a decision down the road (also known as kick the can down the road). The decision process is impacted by the sins of the path, but you still have to make decision on where you are now. At the highly institutional setting that these decisions are made at Cal, this is the result that I think is inevitable.

My view is if you determine Fox is not the guy (and you should have enough experience presently to figure that out), get someone that can move you back to Monty/Braun/Martin level within the parameters under which a basketball program can operate at Cal.

Gonzaga didn't build their program overnight. They produced sustainable results, which led to more money, fans and better players, and they invested at proper times. And it was not just simply wining. They have a great graduation rate, etc. Monty and Martin set the program at a competitive level (admittedly Martin left the program with a talent level that meant a rebuild year though if his frosh class had stayed, it would have been better that 2-16), and it all went very wrong from there. It was not a decent coach, Monson, being replaced by understudy Few.
Plus many. That is why what is needed is a lot less trying to find "that guy" and starting from a perspective of what sort of guy can succeed at Cal. I know that hoop and football are different but it is instructive that our best years of football (and why there is hope with Wilcox) is that it start with guys with California roots/ties. The adminstration (and alumi) hate hearing it but UCB is a STATE SCHOOL and if you are going to win you have to be able to recruit IN STATE. We have tried and failed with guys with roots outside of California.
bearister
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I entered the portal myself this morning looking for Matt but I didn't see him.

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