Keeping my fingers crossed.
Cal Football at an Important Crossroads Entering December
Thanksgiving and a disappointing 4-8/2-7 season have passed and it’s time to push away from the table and get down to work for head coach Justin Wilcox and the Cal football program.
The upcoming week or two represents one of the program’s most critical periods of decision-making in recent seasons with the convergence of several crucial factors, all of which could have a significant impact on the program moving forward.
Here are some of the critical issues of immediate concern facing the program as things stand now:
Offensive Coordinator
After finishing 10th, 8th and 11th in scoring offense and 10th, 7th and last in total offense the last three seasons, Wilcox let veteran NFL OC Bill Musgrave go after the Bears’ disastrous 38-10 shellacking at Oregon State after week ten.
The Bears OC search reportedly is focusing on younger, innovative and charismatic coordinator candidates who can move the needle with both current players considering their futures and with recruits making a decision on what type of offense they’d like to play in at the next level. Such a hire would and style of play would represent somewhat of a shift in Wilcox’s preferable ball-control style of offense though the O did take plenty of shots downfield with their talented trio of starting receivers in Jeremiah Hunter, J.Michael Sturdivant and Mavin Anderson this season, particularly after the game plan by committee scenario arose after Musgrave’s departure.
Offensive Line Coach
The Bears struggled to pass protect and open holes for QB Jack Plummer and Jaydn Ott and the Bears’ running back corps much of this season. After veteran OL coach Steve Greatwood was brought in as a consultant and particularly when he took over as primary OL coach the last two weeks of the season after the departure of former OL coach Angus McClure, the Bears’ pass protection improved, though the line still struggled to open many holes for the running game. Despite the late-season improvement, the Bears still finished 10th in the conference with 31 sacks allowed without even factoring in QB hits. They also finished dead last with just 1,139 rushing yards and 10th with 3.63 yards per carry. With Greatwood expected to head back to retirement after helping out the last six weeks, the Bears are searching for the right mix of coaching prowess and recruiting ability to significantly upgrade the team’s talent and performance in the trenches. As with OC, making the right hire is critical to the success of the program moving forward.
Portal Transfer Management
After largely being on the sidelines in the beginning of the portal cycle, the Bears were more active in ‘22, bringing in QB Jack Plummer, MLB Jackson Sirmon, OLB Xavier Carlton and Odua Isibor and OL TJ Session and Spencer Lovell. They also narrowly missed out on several portal targets but finishing second in recruiting battles doesn’t win games. The Bears will be aggressive on the portal front this season after watching programs like USC and UCLA completely turn around their programs almost entirely on the backs of double-digit key portal transfers. OT and edge rushers are the prime targets but few if any position groups couldn’t be enhanced with an addition or two as well.
The other end of the spectrum for portal transfer management involves the transfer out of players who are unlikely to make a significant impact going forward or at positions where younger, more talented players need more available reps to make a bigger impact. With only 2-3 players out of eligibility this season, the dominant majority of the portal additions will have to come from replacing players who depart through the portal along with those passing on their extra year of eligibility granted to all players in 2020 due to covid-shortened seasons or from medical retirements. Look for somewhere around 15-18 departures through one of those avenues to make room for new portal transfers in as well as 2023 recruits. Some will also come from players transferring out who the program clearly would like to retain who are looking for better fits from a personnel, coaching or program success standpoint or who receive NIL offers they just can’t turn down. There will most certainly be some players in the latter category who will test the portal process but who will ultimately choose to remain in the program.
Early Signing Period Recruiting Weekends
With early signing day looming on December 21, the second and third weekends of December (12/9 and 16) will represent a big recruiting push for the program after holding most of their post-summer visits till after the season. They fully plan to have both coaching decisions made and announced with the new coaches on campus for both recruiting weekends which will be a combination of current commits and others being pursued. Some may also be currently committed recruits from other programs who are open to being recruited before early signing day. With several of the Bears’ top targets being current Stanford commits, look for several to be pursued if open. There are no official visits planned this weekend.
NIL and Donor Support
A robust NIL collective and Caliber Fund war chest would go a long way toward securing the program’s best players and providing new opportunities for future players. The generosity of several donors has made the Caliber Fund a viable weapon in Wilcox’s arsenal to make program-changing hires and and additional moves but more is needed to be truly as competitive as needed. In addition, the athletic department absolutely needs to partner with major donors to fully fund the football program while acknowledging that the financial health of the football program drives the engine in overall athletic department solvency and excellence. The NIL collective is dependent on a far higher degree of broad-based fan and donor support if fans want to see the best players stay and for the program to be as competitive as possible in a conference that has only grown stronger this season.
How the program manages all of the moving pieces in each of the noted categories will be critical to their success moving forward. Missteps in any or all of them would bode ominously for future success potential but home runs in most or all could dramatically shift the narrative and future fortunes of the program going forward.