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Cal Football Recruiting

Chandler Rogers and the Search For the Next Cal QB

January 2, 2023
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While he hasn’t yet chosen the Bears, Cal is in a good position to land the services of a transfer QB,

Chandler Rogers was a Group of 5 level QB recruit out of high school, who choose to attend Southern Mississippi before going to a Junior College and lastly, Louisiana-Monroe.   He’s no taller than 6’1 and he’s not blessed with a cannon for a right arm.  So how is he a possible (likely?) upgrade for the Bears at the QB position?

It starts with a deeper dive into his productivity this past season at ULM.   Football is a game of interdependence.   You give a QB all day to throw, great weapons at WR, and a solid run game, and that QB is going to win a lot of games and post some impressive statistics.  Conversely, if your OL is a sieve and your skill talent is poor, even a great QB is going to struggle.

Chandler Rogers played for a bad ULM team last year.  He was sacked 42 times with only 320 pass attempts, meaning he was sacked on nearly 12% of the snaps where he attempted to pass the ball.  Let’s relate that to Cal and Jack Plummer in 2022.   Jack was sacked 31 times (a tremendously high number) against 484 attempts or 6% of the time.   As bad as the Bears' pass protection was last season, ULM’s was FAR worse (with regard to sacks per attempt, twice as bad).

Rogers was also plagued with a receiving corps that couldn’t catch the ball. ULM finished 4th in the nation in yards lost to receiving drops.  And their running game?   ULM's leading rusher gained only 507 yards with a 3.7 yards per carry average.  Their second-leading rusher was Rogers, who scored 5 rushing TDs and gained 353 yards, even with the negative yardage added in from his 42 sacks.   Compare that to Cal, where Ott posted nearly 900 yards on a 5.3 ypc average and Plummer ended up with -126 yards despite having taken 11 fewer sacks.

Despite all these challenges, Rogers posted a more than respectable 141.7 QB rating.  A rating that was 6th in the Sun Belt on a team that finished tied for 11th in the conference.  Rogers is highly accurate, with a 67.5% completion rate.   Adjusted for drops, his completion rate was an exceptional 76.5%.   If Rogers had attempted the same number of passes as Plummer had last season, he would have passed for more yards, as his yards per attempt was higher than Jack's.   Rogers threw a few interceptions but never had a game with more than one.  It’s also important to note that Rogers has had two years as a full-time starter, and his freshman year at ULM numbers was not far behind what he posted in 2022.  

Rodgers is blessed with explosive running ability.  Beyond his impressive numbers last season at ULM (when adjusted for sacks), he gained over 1000 yards during his senior year in HS (inclusive of sack yards) and scored 10 TDs while averaging over 7 yards per carry.  Compare that to Kai Milner, who rushed for half the number of yards and 6 TDs as a Senior averaging 5.4 ypc.   For something more visceral than his stats, check out this clip from his HS days - Some Serious Juice

Watching his film, it’s not hard to fathom what has Spavital so excited.  Rogers is tailor-made for Spav’s offense.  A fast decision-maker who gets the ball out quickly, Rogers is going to get the ball out to his weapons in space early and often.   Naturally accurate, he throws a WR-friendly ball that often catches his receivers in stride on a host of WR screens, crossers, seams, and quick outs.  For someone with as explosive a pair of legs as Rogers has, he’s far more patient in the pocket than one might expect, working through his progressions to find the open receiver.  While Rogers's arm is not as big as Plummer’s, it’s likely better than Garbers and he delivers it from a far more consistent base.  It’s hard to know how well he throws the deep ball as he rarely had time for post routes or deeper outs.  

A more fulsome view of his passing ability

Until he does it in the Pac-12, there are going to be questions about how Rogers projects at the Power 5 level.   His size isn’t ideal nor is he blessed with a big-time arm.  However, his legs are clearly a weapon, his innate accuracy, decision-making, quick release and consistent production without any type of a supporting cast are all reasons to believe he may be a very good fit in Spavital’s 2023 Cal Offense.

Discussion from...

Chandler Rogers and the Search For the Next Cal QB

20,026 Views | 87 Replies | Last: 10 mo ago by Bobodeluxe
BearinOC
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I am done with Cal Football and Basketball. Unless our Chancellor, and AD are replaced with someone that can correlate athletic success with quality students that want to come here, we are destined to fail.

DoubtfulBear
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So the BI narrative is that chandler is a good fit because he's used to having no OL and constantly getting sacked?
Big C
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DoubtfulBear said:

So the BI narrative is that chandler is a good fit because he's used to having no OL and constantly getting sacked?

No. Read the article again more closely. We get it: you're "doubtful", but the constant negative takes get a bit tedious.


That said, calculating a separate completion percentage to include drops seems like a hype stat. To have it be more meaningful, the stat should appear for all QBs and there should be an ageed upon standard for what constitutes a drop.
MoragaBear
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Staff
As noted in the story, it's adding context to his stats
tequila4kapp
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He sounds like someone who will be very successful here. I hope we get news of the deal being finalized soon.
MinotStateBeav
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I'll be honest, watching his highlights, I saw Zach Maynard.
MoragaBear
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MinotStateBeav said:

I'll be honest, watching his highlights, I saw Zach Maynard.
Maynard's numbers at both Buffalo and Cal were far inferior
okaydo
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Question: Who we're the last 5 great Cal quarterbacks?
DoubtfulBear
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Yes I read the article, and this line is key.

Quote:

Until he does it in the Pac-12, there are going to be questions about how Rogers projects at the Power 5 level.

MinotStateBeav
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MoragaBear said:

MinotStateBeav said:

I'll be honest, watching his highlights, I saw Zach Maynard.
Maynard's numbers at both Buffalo and Cal were far inferior
Buffalo 2009 Maynard
He threw for 2694 yards
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/zach-maynard-1.html


Rogers 2022 at ULM
2403 yards
https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4570554/chandler-rogers

stats both as sophmores
MoragaBear
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Staff
With only a 57% comp %, 18 TDs and 15 INTs and a QBR of only 125 vs 67% comp %, 15 TDs and 7 INTs and a 142 QBR, which would put his rating in the top ten of Cal QBRs in history.
HearstMining
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okaydo said:

Question: Who we're the last 5 great Cal quarterbacks?
Really great? Moraga sort of covered that in another recent thread, but I'd say in reverse chronological order:
1. Goff
2. Rodgers
3. Roth
4. Bartkowski
5. Morton

You can make arguments for Campbell, Taylor, Barr, Barnes, Boller, but the above all had at least one great season at Cal and substantial if not great NFL careers.
Big C
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DoubtfulBear said:

Yes I read the article, and this line is key.

Quote:

Until he does it in the Pac-12, there are going to be questions about how Rogers projects at the Power 5 level.



Yes, and that's true, he would have something to prove at the P5 level. However, the author of the article identified more reasons as to why Rogers might succeed than simply being used to playing behind a crappy line, which cannot be said to be the "narrative" of the piece, as you suggested.
JB was a Chieftain
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Why profile someone who isn't even on the team?
Chapman_is_Gone
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Depends on what one means by "great," doesn't it?

At Cal, Goff never even sniffed an important game, let alone win one. He had a losing record in the Pac-12 each of his three seasons. Cal was 0-8 against ranked teams in Goff's three seasons. Goff was 0-3 against Stanfurd. I remember many Goff interceptions in key moments. Many of you are biased by Goff's NFL success. These are all FACTS, no matter how much they might ruffle your feathers. "Great" QBs manage to stumble into a few big wins, even if the team around them is mediocre.

If I needed to win one important game, I'll take Pawlawski any day of the week.
Chapman_is_Gone
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As i wrote on the Insider Board, this headline is pure cringe. If I have to explain why, you just don't get it.
HearstMining
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JB was a Chieftain said:

Why profile someone who isn't even on the team?
Because it's the depths of winter, the basketball team sucks, and Moraga is doing what a journalist does: write articles in the hope that they will generate interest in the publication. It's the same reason one would write an article about vacationing in Cabo this time of year. You know most of the people aren't planning to go there, but hopefully it interests them enough that they'll read your publication (or website) tomorrow.
MoragaBear
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Staff
HearstMining said:

JB was a Chieftain said:

Why profile someone who isn't even on the team?
Because it's the depths of winter, the basketball team sucks, and Moraga is doing what a journalist does: write articles in the hope that they will generate interest in the publication. It's the same reason one would write an article about vacationing in Cabo this time of year. You know most of the people aren't planning to go there, but hopefully it interests them enough that they'll read your publication (or website) tomorrow.
Except I didn't write it
BearGreg
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Chapman_is_Gone said:

Depends on what one means by "great," doesn't it?

At Cal, Goff never even sniffed an important game, let alone win one. He had a losing record in the Pac-12 each of his three seasons. Cal was 0-8 against ranked teams in Goff's three seasons. Goff was 0-3 against Stanfurd. I remember many Goff interceptions in key moments. Many of you are biased by Goff's NFL success. These are all FACTS, no matter how much they might ruffle your feathers. "Great" QBs manage to stumble into a few big wins, even if the team around them is mediocre.

If I needed to win one important game, I'll take Pawlawski any day of the week.
Wonder how Goff would have done with Pawlawski's team and Paws on Goff's team?

Curious how people relate wins to a QBs performance. Last I saw, QBs don't recruit, call plays, or play defense or special teams.
Bobodeluxe
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JB was a Chieftain said:

Why profile someone who isn't even on the team?
How many are left on the team?
chunkybear
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The complaining on the sub is depressing.

If I was Spav, I would lean into the prime-time Rodgers vs Goff showdown next Sunday night. We have a spot open at a program that has produced two pro-bowl caliber starting QBs. A chance to be a part of that legacy.
calumnus
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I have my doubts about Spavital, but if he likes Rodgers for his offense, I can see the logic. Makes more sense than Musgrave bringing in Plummer given we didn't have the OL to give him protection needed in Musgrave's offense (and playcalling).
Eastern Oregon Bear
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chunkybear said:

The complaining on the sub is depressing.

If I was Spav, I would lean into the prime-time Rodgers vs Goff showdown next Sunday night. We have a spot open at a program that has produced two pro-bowl caliber starting QBs. A chance to be a part of that legacy.
I agree. The anger and bile around here is pretty bad these days and it gets rather irrational at times. The toxic atmosphere makes BI a fairly unpleasant read these days. I find myself spending less time here and skipping threads that appear over the top negative. They have some good points, but who wants to wallow for days in the emotional cesspool?
tequila4kapp
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HearstMining said:

JB was a Chieftain said:

Why profile someone who isn't even on the team?

Read the tea leaves...foreshadowing
heartofthebear
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Isn't this a similar write up to Luke Rubenzer, who couldn't even hold a back-up QB job at Cal?

Why should we expect anything more of Chandler?

Also, it's news to me that Spav. needs a mobile QB.
When Spav. came to Cal under Dykes, Rubenzer was the heir apparent, but Spav. brought in Davis Webb.
How is Davis Webb more mobile than Rubenzer?
Also, Webb turned out to do quite well in Spav's system as a mostly pocket QB.
So, another question is why did Plummer decide to leave when he is more like Webb than anyone else?

Goobear
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Stetson Bennet didn't do bad. I am sure Cal fans would have had question marks about him. The angst here is immense. You want Cal to be big time consistently? Open your wallets like Sebasta and others do. Also the institution that is Cal can do way more for FB. I don't need to hear that it is only recruiting and coaching that will do the trick. Cal the institution needs to step up. My son is a big Spav fan for what it is worth. He doesn't tell me what they talk about but if he thinks it is good for the program who I am I to doubt that? Therefore the QB he selects is not an issue with me. Go Bears!
4thGenCal
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Goobear said:

Stetson Bennet didn't do bad. I am sure Cal fans would have had question marks about him. The angst here is immense. You want Cal to be big time consistently? Open your wallets like Sebasta and others do. Also the institution that is Cal can do way more for FB. I don't need to hear that it is only recruiting and coaching that will do the trick. Cal the institution needs to step up. My son is a big Spav fan for what it is worth. He doesn't tell me what they talk about but if he thinks it is good for the program who I am I to doubt that? Therefore the QB he selects is not an issue with me. Go Bears!
So true and thanks for explaining that more is needed, I have stepped up for NIL and while I understand the distaste many alums have for it, its 100% needed if the Golden Bears are going to be Bowl Bound and competing at a higher level going forward. Also would want the administration to loosen up the admissions slightly. There are capable student athletes who can succeed with the academic demands, that are turned away. Not talking about a "open the gates" - more like 4-5+- 2.8GPA+ admits. Many of these prospects come from single parent background and have had difficult/limited upbringings and minimal educational support. Cuonzo used to lament the "lack of the administration taking a chance" on the occasional recruit. I firmly believe with consistent tutoring and accountability, the majority of the few marginal recruits will do fine academically. One senior (only one admitted in past 6 seasons+) on the Hoops team has done fine and will graduate despite being a 2.8gpa from HS.
calumnus
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heartofthebear said:

Isn't this a similar write up to Luke Rubenzer, who couldn't even hold a back-up QB job at Cal?

Why should we expect anything more of Chandler?

Also, it's news to me that Spav. needs a mobile QB.
When Spav. came to Cal under Dykes, Rubenzer was the heir apparent, but Spav. brought in Davis Webb.
How is Davis Webb more mobile than Rubenzer?
Also, Webb turned out to do quite well in Spav's system as a mostly pocket QB.
So, another question is why did Plummer decide to leave when he is more like Webb than anyone else?




2016 was 7 seasons ago. Plus Webb was from Texas Tech, an Air Raid qb who lost his starting position to Patrick Mahomes, the next era of Air Raid QBs.

I was a critic of Baldwin and Musgrave but I always waited to see the product on the field before making any conclusions. I have my doubts about Spavital, but let's see what we look like in the Spring.
Econ141
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calumnus said:

heartofthebear said:

Isn't this a similar write up to Luke Rubenzer, who couldn't even hold a back-up QB job at Cal?

Why should we expect anything more of Chandler?

Also, it's news to me that Spav. needs a mobile QB.
When Spav. came to Cal under Dykes, Rubenzer was the heir apparent, but Spav. brought in Davis Webb.
How is Davis Webb more mobile than Rubenzer?
Also, Webb turned out to do quite well in Spav's system as a mostly pocket QB.
So, another question is why did Plummer decide to leave when he is more like Webb than anyone else?




2016 was 7 seasons ago. Plus Webb was from Texas Tech, an Air Raid qb who lost his starting position to Patrick Mahomes, the next era of Air Raid QBs.

I was a critic of Baldwin and Musgrave but I always waited to see the product on the field before making any conclusions. I have my doubts about Spavital, but let's see what we look like in the Spring.


Spring never tells us anything outside of relative performance within a position group. Is Chandler better than our other qbs? That can be answered. Is he, or the broader offense going to lead us to victories? No one knows. Excitement on offense is just a sign that our defense sucks and vice versa.
heartofthebear
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calumnus said:

heartofthebear said:

Isn't this a similar write up to Luke Rubenzer, who couldn't even hold a back-up QB job at Cal?

Why should we expect anything more of Chandler?

Also, it's news to me that Spav. needs a mobile QB.
When Spav. came to Cal under Dykes, Rubenzer was the heir apparent, but Spav. brought in Davis Webb.
How is Davis Webb more mobile than Rubenzer?
Also, Webb turned out to do quite well in Spav's system as a mostly pocket QB.
So, another question is why did Plummer decide to leave when he is more like Webb than anyone else?




2016 was 7 seasons ago. Plus Webb was from Texas Tech, an Air Raid qb who lost his starting position to Patrick Mahomes, the next era of Air Raid QBs.

I was a critic of Baldwin and Musgrave but I always waited to see the product on the field before making any conclusions. I have my doubts about Spavital, but let's see what we look like in the Spring.
I don't see why Plummer couldn't operate like Webb did in a Spav. offense. It seems to be unnecessary to not guarantee Plummer the job. Now where are we? The answer is that nobody knows.
Cal_79
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heartofthebear said:

calumnus said:

heartofthebear said:

Isn't this a similar write up to Luke Rubenzer, who couldn't even hold a back-up QB job at Cal?

Why should we expect anything more of Chandler?

Also, it's news to me that Spav. needs a mobile QB.
When Spav. came to Cal under Dykes, Rubenzer was the heir apparent, but Spav. brought in Davis Webb.
How is Davis Webb more mobile than Rubenzer?
Also, Webb turned out to do quite well in Spav's system as a mostly pocket QB.
So, another question is why did Plummer decide to leave when he is more like Webb than anyone else?




2016 was 7 seasons ago. Plus Webb was from Texas Tech, an Air Raid qb who lost his starting position to Patrick Mahomes, the next era of Air Raid QBs.

I was a critic of Baldwin and Musgrave but I always waited to see the product on the field before making any conclusions. I have my doubts about Spavital, but let's see what we look like in the Spring.
I don't see why Plummer couldn't operate like Webb did in a Spav. offense. It seems to be unnecessary to not guarantee Plummer the job. Now where are we? The answer is that nobody knows.

Why should a player be "guaranteed" the job?
DoubtfulBear
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Why should a mediocre HC be guaranteed a job?
heartofthebear
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Cal_79 said:

heartofthebear said:

calumnus said:

heartofthebear said:

Isn't this a similar write up to Luke Rubenzer, who couldn't even hold a back-up QB job at Cal?

Why should we expect anything more of Chandler?

Also, it's news to me that Spav. needs a mobile QB.
When Spav. came to Cal under Dykes, Rubenzer was the heir apparent, but Spav. brought in Davis Webb.
How is Davis Webb more mobile than Rubenzer?
Also, Webb turned out to do quite well in Spav's system as a mostly pocket QB.
So, another question is why did Plummer decide to leave when he is more like Webb than anyone else?




2016 was 7 seasons ago. Plus Webb was from Texas Tech, an Air Raid qb who lost his starting position to Patrick Mahomes, the next era of Air Raid QBs.

I was a critic of Baldwin and Musgrave but I always waited to see the product on the field before making any conclusions. I have my doubts about Spavital, but let's see what we look like in the Spring.
I don't see why Plummer couldn't operate like Webb did in a Spav. offense. It seems to be unnecessary to not guarantee Plummer the job. Now where are we? The answer is that nobody knows.

Why should a player be "guaranteed" the job?
Because he had already won it. Did they have to tell that to Goff, Garbers, Rodgers when they were coming back for a second year as a starter? Plummer just had one of the top 10 passing performances in Cal history, getting pummeled in the process by a failing OL and playing through injury. HE EARNED IT!!!!!
Cal_79
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heartofthebear said:

Cal_79 said:

heartofthebear said:

calumnus said:

heartofthebear said:

Isn't this a similar write up to Luke Rubenzer, who couldn't even hold a back-up QB job at Cal?

Why should we expect anything more of Chandler?

Also, it's news to me that Spav. needs a mobile QB.
When Spav. came to Cal under Dykes, Rubenzer was the heir apparent, but Spav. brought in Davis Webb.
How is Davis Webb more mobile than Rubenzer?
Also, Webb turned out to do quite well in Spav's system as a mostly pocket QB.
So, another question is why did Plummer decide to leave when he is more like Webb than anyone else?




2016 was 7 seasons ago. Plus Webb was from Texas Tech, an Air Raid qb who lost his starting position to Patrick Mahomes, the next era of Air Raid QBs.

I was a critic of Baldwin and Musgrave but I always waited to see the product on the field before making any conclusions. I have my doubts about Spavital, but let's see what we look like in the Spring.
I don't see why Plummer couldn't operate like Webb did in a Spav. offense. It seems to be unnecessary to not guarantee Plummer the job. Now where are we? The answer is that nobody knows.

Why should a player be "guaranteed" the job?
Because he had already won it. Did they have to tell that to Goff, Garbers, Rodgers when they were coming back for a second year as a starter? Plummer just had one of the top 10 passing performances in Cal history, getting pummeled in the process by a failing OL and playing through injury. HE EARNED IT!!!!!

Going in as the frontrunner, sure. But being guaranteed the job by a new OC running a different offense, nope. What happens if the player is outplayed by someone else?
Bobodeluxe
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Can anyone turn this into an mRNA thread?
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