I love Barelys rant (and feel the pain) and appreciate Jim's response and admission that they were wrong. i think both make really good points. Adding a couple observations:MoragaBear said:You were right and we were dead wrong about Fox. I didn't write what you quoted and was on the fence about him when he was hired but I did at least think he'd be a far better X's and O's guy.BearlyCareAnymore said:I am not doing this to win an argument or embarrass you. I do respect you Moraga. But there needs to be an intervention here with the remnants of this fanbase and with media like BearInsider.MoragaBear said:BearlyCareAnymore said:I'm sorry, but this is not reality. You aren't asking this coach to bet on themselves. You are asking them to bet on Knowlton, on Christ, and on the Cal administration. Look, my faith in this program is so low, I'm willing to hand it to some D-III assistant for $400K and tell him to keep the lights on and cash the conference check. But if you are looking for success, not making a commitment to a candidate is not the way to go. You say we need to ask them to bet on themselves. What do you say when they respond, "Okay, I'm going to bet on myself. I'm going to bet that I can succeed where I am so that next year I don't need to take your crap offer."?MoragaBear said:The salary increase would be substantial for many of these coaches, including Pasternack. You need to leverage that to have favorable buyout terms for the university and ask them to bet on themselves in exchange for a significant raise and bigger budget in all areas.BearGoggles said:I can't imagine any qualified coach would accept less than a 4-5 year contract to step into the mess that is Cal basketball. And in terms of incentives vs salary, to get a candidate like Johnson or Pasternak, you need to pay market (at least). But market for that type of candidate should be lower than a more established coach.waterbear2013 said:Something something about "when you find yourself in a hole, the first thing you need to do is stop digging." Whoever Cal hires, must have a very heavy incentives based contract with clear stated expectations. Cal cannot commit another 3-4 years to a coach that doesn't significantly move the needle in the right direction.HearstMining said:
Of course, several of the coaching biographies above reference the turnarounds that the coaches have achieved. It's horrifying to note that the pre-turnaround records of most of these teams were at least twice as good as Cal's recent record. This highlights how deep Cal's program has fallen and how could the administration tolerate so many years of bad results? I'm not telling you folks anything you don't know, but seeing the results at other schools really drives the point home. Six years of being BDWs is crazy.
Cal went budget with Wyking and that was a disaster.
Of course, the key is always the buyout.
This job has effectively ended the head coaching career of the last two coaches. Now, neither of those coaches were going anywhere anyway, which is probably why they took the job. And the problem with both of the contracts was not the buyout. It was that we paid them a lot more than they were ever going to get anywhere else. Neither had any prospects. Since you mentioned Pasternack, we don't need to beat UCSB's salary. We need to beat 1. Whatever UCSB is willing to pay him plus the notion that he will probably have a 20 year career there if he wants, and 2. Whatever he can get, or thinks he can get elsewhere either this year or in the next couple. Yeah, if he wants to bet on himself, he can bet on his continued success in a good situation and the ability to parlay that into an offer from a high major willing to make a normal commitment to him.
And bigger budget than UCSB is irrelevant. What matters is your budget in relation to your competitors and on that score we don't do well. Budget is about being able to be competitive.
The program is in the tank. Cal should try not doing an incompetent job at identifying coaching candidates, pick one they like, pay them something they could reasonably get on the market (plus a little more because that is how you close a deal) and give them a reasonable time commitment.
The problem with Wyking is it was a patently moronic hire. The problem with Fox is it was a patently moronic hire and then we extended him for no reason (which is another Cal thing to do). Stop making moronic hires. Stop giving moronic extensions. If you don't give them the commitment out of the gate you end up paying more in the long run.
If I'm a candidate, I'm looking at it this way. The most I can depend on staying at Cal is 2 years. It isn't whether I can win. It is whether Cal can win, and I don't know that anyone can win there. So I'm either counting on my first two years of salary or the buyout and that is it. So then I got to compare that with what I'm sure I'm going to get where I am and what I could get elsewhere. And, if they don't give me enough time to turn this turd around, do I then go out and try to get a job with a 10-50 win loss record and find that I have burned every opportunity. Because, if I'm going to bet on myself, I need 4-5 years. Otherwise, I'm betting on you to have patience. I'm betting on you to give me the support I need. I'm betting on a whole lot of things out of my control.
Anyone willing to bet on themselves would be a fool to take that deal. They'd bet on a better deal in their future. Which leaves you back where you started, getting only guys like Fox who are taking one more paycheck into retirement or guys like Jones who had made no move toward becoming a head coach and had absolutely zero prospect that was going to happen until Cal dropped the opportunity in his lap.
You go mid major precisely because it doesn't cost a lot. You give the commitment because that is what it should take to turn the program around. Cal needs to bet on itself here. Bet that they can identify the right candidate and then give that candidate adequate time and support to develop the program from nothing. Or at least bet that you won't pick a candidate so bad that he will be an obvious loser in 2-3 years I wouldn't bet on Cal being able to find the right guy, but hopefully they have more confidence in themselves. If Cal doesn't have confidence that Knowlton is the guy to do that, they shouldn't have hired him and then given him a million year extension.
Seriously, if Cal doesn't think that Knowlton can hire a coach that can last 4-5 years under incredibly low expectations, why is he the AD? I mean, that is an incredibly low bar for the next coach to pass. I know WE don't think Knowlton can do that, but we aren't the ones who hired him. At some point, you have to assume your people are competent.
You're evidently not aware of substantial changes to the equation for the program's future. I mean VERY significant.
With that in mind, they should be able to pull off exactly what I suggested unless Knowlton figures out how to screw that up despite a lot of very important people who are fed up and holding his feet to the fire.
4 years ago, when a lot of people like me went apoplectic over the idiocy that was the Fox hire, BearInsider wrote an article about it. Here are some quotes. I think this first one is most relevant:Quote:
The news of Wyking Jones departure and Mark Fox's hire are not the beginning and end of this story. Expect to hear some very good news with regard to donations and facilities upgrades in the near future. Cal's basketball brand has been diminished in the past two seasons and needs to be rebuilt. That starts with experienced. competent leadership and continues with substantial donations that benefit not only basketball but the athletic department as a whole
So, I wasn't aware of all the great news that was coming then that BI knew about. And I'm not aware of all the great changes coming now. I'm just wondering if these are the same great changes since the ones from 4 years ago haven't come yet.
I was told then directly from BI staff, again, because I didn't know what BI knows:Quote:
Not trying to change your mind in the least but we talked to six coaches/senior media analysts today and off the record, they all said glowing things about Fox.
More quotes from the BI article based on information I apparently didn't know:Quote:
The obvious initial take when discussing Mark Fox is that he is in every respect an upgrade over his predecessor. An experienced hand who's well-respected by his peers, Fox will bring a depth of experience and presence that Cal has not had since Mike Montgomery retired in 2012.
there's a real possibility that Cal could hit a home run with their choice of Mark Fox.
Mark Fox's resume as it relates to scheme, teaching and player development are strong. His teams consistently played top-tier defense, and defense wins in college basketball. He's a coach with a chip on his shoulder, hungry to wipe the exit at Georgia from his resume. His X's and O's and teaching pedigree are endorsed in fulsome fashion with his recent tenure with Team USA and the praise he received from coaching luminaries in today's press release. Bear Insider has had a chance to source further references from a half dozen industry experts and the praise has been universal and unstinting. Folks who know Pac-12 basketball exceptionally well and have no affiliation with Cal or with Coach Fox have been effusive in their praise of Fox and the fit at Cal.
I was then told by fans to have faith in the process.
Here are some excerpts from my responses 4 years ago. And the point of this is to demonstrate that this is lather, rinse, repeat.Quote:
I'm asking those who want us to have faith in the process to tell me what they think that process is? The reason I ask is every time we have a major decision, good or bad, any criticism is met with "They know what they are doing. They have a plan. Have faith in the process." Well, that argument is assuming that they DO have a plan.
I DON'T THINK THEY DO. The reason why I believe this is because all of my life there has been no indication that they do. I submit to you that there is no process to trust.
It feels like being told to have faith in the process is just a demand to not question decisions of the athletic department. And I'm sorry, Cal's athletic department lost this benefit of the doubt decades ago.
I am saying is that Cal fans judge every administration by the magic bean philosophy. New administration comes in. They say "our goal is to compete for conference championships/Rose Bowls" You've heard that once or twice, right? (Though now they seem to be downgrading that). Do they tell you how they'll do that? No. Then nothing happens. And Cal fans say "Oh, I know. They planted magic beans. It's all germinating under the surface. We just can't see it yet. One morning we will wake up and there will be a giant beanstalk." Then there is never a beanstalk. Then the next administration comes in and its "no, no, no. The last administration sucked. Turns out they never planted beans. THIS administration is planting beans. It's all germinating under the surface. We just can't see it yet. One morning there will be a giant beanstalk."
I'm saying, show me the beans.
In 8 days, Knowlton will have been on the job for a year. Nothing has happened. We are far beyond the point that he should have his own stamp on this department and some good changes would have been made that are visible to the public...If the beanstalk was coming, we'd see sprouts by now.
And now, a year in, we have the first major decision. A decision that it was very apparent the day that Knowlton was hire was very likely to have to be made. He had a year to prepare. And the decision was a very Cal decision handled in a very Cal way. So now, I'm watching Knowlton in the garden spraying all over from a can labeled "Bean-be-gone. Guaranteed to kill all beanstalks before they grow" and I'm still supposed to think the beanstalk is coming.
The administration has had a year to articulate a vision. And no, we want to compete for championships is not a vision. We want to be a mid tier program is not a vision. A vision is "this is what we want. this is how we get there. These are the specific steps we are going to take to do that." They have not articulated a vision. They have not changed any practices. They struggled to decide whether to terminate possibly the worst coach in the history of Cal revenue sports. Then they made an at best uninspiring hire. That is what I'm judging them on.
All the past administrations failures - that is what I'm judging the fans that want to wait and see on. Because they always wait and see. The reckoning never comes. The fan that stood by 25 times having faith that the beanstalk is coming and had no beanstalk come, and then for the 26th time tells me it's all happening beneath the surface, I'm sorry, no.
By the way, I'm realizing the Great Pumpkin might have been a better analogy, but it's too late to rewrite. Suffice it to say, I ain't gonna be Sally. All the Linuses can freeze in the pumpkin patch with their security blankets.
That was 4 years ago! One year into the Knowlton/Christ regime. I would love to say "and nothing has changed", but I can't. Any measure of results shows the athletic department to be drastically worse than 4 years ago. The basketball program is in worse shape, which no one thought was possible. Other sports have tanked. We ignored a coach abusing players. And now, I'm supposed to believe that the same administration that has had FIVE years to make major changes, NOW THEY HAVE STARTED PLANTING THOSE DAMNED BEANS? AGAIN WITH THE BEANS HAVE BEEN PLANTED? And this isn't even a new administration that can blame the last one. It is the last one. I don't care what they are telling you Moraga. It strains credibility.
The Great Pumpkin is actually the perfect analogy because I love Linus. Linus is a believer. He's not trying to con anyone. He's optimistic and good and just wants something so bad. I know, Moraga, that you are going to say to yourself "he just doesn't know what is happening. Cal has found the most sincere pumpkin patch and the Great Pumpkin is coming this time. He'll see". BI is Linus, Moraga, and as I said, I love Linus. The problem in that story is Sally. Sally should know better. Sally should keep loving Linus. Sally should walk him to the pumpkin patch, pat him on the head, and go trick or treating. What is most dismaying about that thread 4 years ago is seeing some knowledgeable Cal fans, who knew the right answer when Fox was hired, be convince by the BI article when they should have known better.
And I have to tell you, Moraga, Cal is not the Great Pumpkin. They are the Ethiopian Prince. They are lying to you. They are lying to us. They have been lying to us for decades. There has never been accountability for anyone who matters. They throw the coaches up as a sacrifice to the fan base and keep on movin. You only know what Cal tells you and Cal has a history of lying. Maybe you are right. Maybe this time is different. But I've been told this time is different too many times. Here's hoping Cal proves me wrong this time.
I say all this most of all, Moraga, because the chances are about 99% that in 4 years, we'll be back here with someone telling me that I'm apparently not aware of the great things that are happening and I will point to this thread stating I wasn't aware of the great things coming and this thread will point to the thread 4 years prior stating I wasn't aware of the great things coming, and maybe it will start to sink in for some people that the great things aren't coming.
I don't blame you in the slightest for being skeptical that they'll get his right, especially with Knowlton still in charge. But there's a big difference between now and then. Knowlton hadn't hired Wyking Jones, Michael Williams did. He wasn't on the hot seat for that hire. Now he most certainly is for the Fox hire and extension, among other things. And significant donors and key Cal basketball alumni weren't nearly as involved in the process with the Fox hire and extension and because of who's involved in the financial end of the equation this go-round, the significant additional investment is far more secure than it was before. That could blow up if Knowlton is cavalier about this process, though. He better not be.
I'm not asking you to believe. I think you're perfectly justified in your show me, don't tell me stance. I'm just bringing you information I believe to be very reliable, though Knowlton is the wildcard. He needs to not screw this up by letting his ego get in the way of getting this right. Fortunately, there are a lot of stakeholders highly involved and the hope is that they can work together to get this done properly because the resources are there.
We'll know soon enough either way.
1. Barely - do you really consider Bearinsider a neutral third party journalistic enterprise? I expect them to pump a little sunshine.
2. MB admitted they were wrong about Fox. So was I. So was every coach who was willing to speak up. My beef isn't with BearInsider, the coaching community or even FOX. It is with Jimmy "the squeeze" Knowlton who knew after year 2, that he was wrong in year 1 and dug in his heels and avoided admitting that he made a mistake in hiring FOX and perpetuating the disaster beyond year 3. This is all on JK.
3. All the other coaches spoke highly of Fox even after he worsened. It starting sounding weird last season, but this season it became outright ludicrous how much every former coach and broadcaster HAD to say what a good coach Fox is. He must really be a great guy in person - because nothing else explains the fawning over such a bad coach.
4. From my observations and memory - FOX was an up and comer at Nevada. He didn't adapt well at Georgia, but stuck around for NINE seasons - even though he seemed to get worse. I don't recall any of the ostrich like sheltering of himself, staff and team at either stop. At Cal, he had a bunker mentality. His coaching seems to have become worse than at Georgia (which was worse than at Nevada).
Sometimes people get better with experience. Sometimes they don't. I think FOX has actually become a worse coach over time (I've seen it before).
