The Benson Blog: After Ten Games, Cal Basketball is Trending Up

Cal has now completed 10 games this season, and they currently sit at 9-1. With that record, we’ve started receiving votes in the AP poll, and our ESPN BPI is 79. Not bad for a team predicted to finish ranked around 150. With about ⅓ of the season finished, I figured this would be a good time to revisit my preseason predictions, and look at the numbers to see where things are and might be headed. 

First things first, in my preview, I said the following:

“Most major media outlets have placed us around 14th out of the 18-team ACC conference. Without any preseason all conference players, I don’t think that number is unfair. But we haven’t seen them play yet. If there’s one thing I’ve learned the last couple of years, it's that someone always surprises us with their individual growth… If Justin Pippen‍ brings big game energy, maybe we finish higher.“

So far, this has been proven wildly true. Pippen has had tremendous growth between this season and last. I noted that he had high level defensive instincts and would get the ball out on the break and he’s exceeded my expectations. He should be an All-ACC defender by the end of the season. That’s not even counting his offensive talent and playmaking. 

But it’s not just him. Dai Dai has pro-level body control and change of speed. Bell is an elite shooter at the college level. Carr has been better than I might have expected off the bench. Dort might be more effective down low with the ball than Aimaq ever was. Even John Camden‍, who I knew would be solid, is beyond solid. He’s like if Conor Famulener grew three inches and shot it a little better. And that's a COMPLIMENT.

All of this growth on the personal level is one thing, but from a tactical side, we’ve also seen huge strides. The pace is greatly improved. We’re averaging 83 points per game on 37% from three. Both greatly improved numbers. As far as the ACC, we’re 9th in scoring, 4th in 3 pt %, and 13th in assists. We haven’t played a monster schedule by any means, but these are numbers I can accept. 

Further, our defense makes sense now. I know that “making sense” sounds like a low bar, but it isn’t. We choose what we want to give up based on our personnel. This wasn’t the case during the last few seasons. We just – did – things. Now we have strategy and intention. And guys make plays. That leads me into another quote from my season preview:

“If we can come together and if we can get our defense working consistently, we could finish 9th-12th in the conference. As the hopeful guy I am, what I really want is for them to prove me wrong and finish even higher.”

ESPN

As it stands now, ESPN projects us to finish with a 19-12 record, and a 9th place finish in the ACC. See the attached chart below:

A 19-12 record would imply around a .500 finish for the rest of the season, which is more than doable, even with some ACC losses. Either way, the way I see it, the 9th place prediction might end up being spot on. You never know how a season unfolds, and as always, I want to be proven wrong in a good way. But as it stands, not one coach or sportswriter in America predicted Cal to finish higher than 14th. So every step above that is a statement. Every highlight package that finds its way to ESPN is a statement. Every Bell 3-ball is a statement. Every time we beat Mick Cronin, it's a statement.

And that statement is that Cal is the place where a player can go to both improve and win. If we can make it to the top half of the ACC, I think that statement will turn into a program we’re all proud of. . 

Go Bears