DoubtfulBear said:
BearGoggles said:
Lots of moving pieces and here are some random thoughts:
I don't believe that the B1G is "not interested" in expansion. They will do exactly what they did with UW/UO - see what Cal and Furd are offered and then decide if they want to match or beat it. There is no reason for B1G to negotiate at this point since they know Cal/Furd prefer B1G (or should). At the right price, I have no doubt B1G want Cal/Furd to balance travel, etc. At the right price.
Re ACC, I think there's a decent match for Cal there albeit travel will suck. Ideal situation would be to only have major sports in the ACC and have the rest play in other conferences. I assume FSU/Clemson would oppose any expansion - if for no other reason then they want the ACC to go away. I wonder what happens if ACC admits Cal/Furd/SMU (?) over the objections of FSU/Clemson? Do FSU/Clemson use that to take a position on the grant of rights and leave the league (i.e., litigation mode)?
At the end of the day, its comes down to the networks and specifically ESPN. Does ESPN want Clemson/FSU in the SEC (not sure they do). If they do, then ESPN can modify the ACC GOR to make that happen - for example throw additional $$ in the deal and/or shorten the term. Hypothetically, what if ESPN offered the ACC more annual money per team in exchange for letting FSU/Clemson go to the SEC? Who says no?
Why would ESPN want to pay more to move FSU and Clemson from one conference they own to another conference they own?
I specifically said "not sure they do."
But to some extent, you kind of answered your own question. To keep those two schools (one of which is elite) under the ESPN umbrella as opposed to having them bolt for B1G or other non-espn options. Plus you get better matchups in the SEC for those two schools and added SEC content which brings in a premium.
Another reason to do it is to prevent the ACC from blowing up, which is a possibility that has been discussed. Not a high likelihood, but it is an unhappy partnership.
The obvious question is to what extent you're devaluing the ACC from a broadcast rights/revenue perspective by allowing the move. At least theoretically, some of that loss is offset by the addition of games that are in the late night window - something ESPN is clearly after - and games in new media markets (Texas/CA if SMU is involved).