calumnus said:

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sycasey said:

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philly1121 said:

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sycasey said:

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philly1121 said:

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HateRed said:

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And, that can be a good sign…

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I get what you're saying but in order for us to be invited, they want ND to join for football. That's not going to happen unless the situation gets dire. And even then I think they would bolt and join the B1G.

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SOME of the schools are holding out for ND to join in football. Others are in favor of adding schools now (seems like a majority, but they need 75% approval). It depends on how close the vote is and if it could be swung.

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Well we know that FSU, Clemson, UNC and Syracuse are opposed.

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We don't know that. The rumor mill has named a bunch of different schools as potentially on the "No" side of the question. The only thing I'd be 100% convinced of is that FSU and Clemson are opposed and Notre Dame is in favor. I'm also about 90% sure that it's very close: like they would only need to flip one or two votes to approve the merger. If it wasn't close they probably would have stopped talking about it already.

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I am very confident FSU and Clemson are opposed mostly because they want out of the current GORs or more money at least and so they are blocking as a negotiating strategy. Or as a pretext to challenge the GORs if they lose.

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It's also entirely possible that they think adding two mid level, to be generous, west coast athletic programs isn't worth the hassle. There's no natural fit and no financial bonanza here for the ACC. It's really hard to make a case for Cal and Stanford to the ACC, unfortunately.

sycasey said:

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philly1121 said:

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sycasey said:

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philly1121 said:

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HateRed said:

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And, that can be a good sign…

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I get what you're saying but in order for us to be invited, they want ND to join for football. That's not going to happen unless the situation gets dire. And even then I think they would bolt and join the B1G.

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SOME of the schools are holding out for ND to join in football. Others are in favor of adding schools now (seems like a majority, but they need 75% approval). It depends on how close the vote is and if it could be swung.

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Well we know that FSU, Clemson, UNC and Syracuse are opposed.

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We don't know that. The rumor mill has named a bunch of different schools as potentially on the "No" side of the question. The only thing I'd be 100% convinced of is that FSU and Clemson are opposed and Notre Dame is in favor. I'm also about 90% sure that it's very close: like they would only need to flip one or two votes to approve the merger. If it wasn't close they probably would have stopped talking about it already.

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I think it was Brett McMurphy or @theactionnetwork that named Syracuse having the position of ND "put up or shut up". And again, those 3-4 schools want ND in as a football member. Its all speculation to be sure but we do kknow that they didn't vote Wednesday because they didn't have enough yes votes. They didn't vote yesterday and we haven't heard anything since.

https://www.si.com/college/2023/08/11/stanford-cal-acc-unlikely-future-unclear-pac-12

Quote:

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Four schools stood opposed when the issue was discussed Wednesday night, sources say: Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina and North Carolina State.

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If no ACC, it's "Sorry Big10. We tried to find an alternative. Let us all in, send 4 back, or plan to lawyer up."

Hard to see our case. The conference media deal was expiring. We turned down a deal in '22. Oregon and Washington followed a decision that USC and UCLA made a year ago. How is it anti trust by the B1G? Four of our schools went to the Big 12 - a competing conference.

No law says they have to find the remaining schools valuable, even if they are.

The schools with options... Florida State, Clemson, UNC and UVA are against. Same with NC State. Va Tech on the fence also.

Schools for... Pitt, Louisville and Georgia Tech... want the league to stay together because they see themselves being left behind if the league comes apart.

BigDaddy said:

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The schools with options... Florida State, Clemson, UNC and UVA are against. Same with NC State. Va Tech on the fence also.

Schools for... Pitt, Louisville and Georgia Tech... want the league to stay together because they see themselves being left behind if the league comes apart.

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Virginia is a mystery in that group. The other three are against precisely because they don't have options. They are in a GOR thru '36 which is perceived as a bad deal and has a huge buyout. They see two more teams as raising their expenses and making it harder to break their GOR

SoFlaBear said:

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Hard to see our case. The conference media deal was expiring. We turned down a deal in '22. Oregon and Washington followed a decision that USC and UCLA made a year ago. How is it anti trust by the B1G? Four of our schools went to the Big 12 - a competing conference.

No law says they have to find the remaining schools valuable, even if they are.

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Per Wilner, we also turned down a deal with espn last fall for $30m. (market rate, baby) The Presidents told the commissioner to come back wit a $50m deal. Then apple comes in with $20m. Common sense says to jump at a discounted share from the BiG. Only a fool woudl stay.

Have been away all day so not sure if this has been posted but ACC is not looking likely:

https://www.si.com/college/2023/08/11/stanford-cal-acc-unlikely-future-unclear-pac-12

We are toast.

SoFlaBear said:

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BigDaddy said:

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The schools with options... Florida State, Clemson, UNC and UVA are against. Same with NC State. Va Tech on the fence also.

Schools for... Pitt, Louisville and Georgia Tech... want the league to stay together because they see themselves being left behind if the league comes apart.

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Virginia is a mystery in that group. The other three are against precisely because they don't have options. They are in a GOR thru '36 which is perceived as a bad deal and has a huge buyout. They see two more teams as raising their expenses and making it harder to break their GOR

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UVA is prepared for their eventual departure, and know they can get into the SEC or the B1G when the time comes.

I am still of the belief that until the ACC / ND situations become apparent, the B1G is in no hurry to make any additional commitments, but that depending what happens with the ACC, the B1G may become active again in expansion. It'll be interesting to see what happens by 8/15 with the ACC, and if the B1G does consider further expansion that might include Cal / Stanfurd, what kind of revenue share concessions they will be looking for.

Cal88 said:

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GoCal80 said:

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I don't think people are thinking through what this travel means. Lots of disruption is happening and it is likely to get much worse as climate change makes the weather more chaotic.

From today's accuweather site:

" More than 1,500 flights within, into or out of the United States were canceled on Monday, and more than 7,400 arriving and departing flights in the U.S. were delayed as severe weather erupted across the East on Monday"

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There has not been an increase in air travel disruption due to changes in climate. The increase in cancelations is due to tighter/more aggressive airline scheduling policies as well as a shortage of pilots.



One thing that's kind of related though is that the southern Atlantic coast is particularly prone to hurricane activity, and of course hurricane season (Aug. through Oct.) is football season.

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those hurricane risk area maps need to be updated to account for the insanely high water temperatures right now. nobody in the SEC is safe.

Interesting:

Have been told CFP eligibility will follow NCAA requirements on this issue https://t.co/BaHRCztubr

— Jon Wilner (@wilnerhotline) August 11, 2023

sycasey said:

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Econ141 said:

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Have been away all day so not sure if this has been posted but ACC is not looking likely:

https://www.si.com/college/2023/08/11/stanford-cal-acc-unlikely-future-unclear-pac-12

We are toast.

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Quite strange to me that NC State would be a vote against. I don't think they're in a safe position if the ACC collapses.

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Pat Forde is fairly reliable I believe - not sure what NC St's deal is with this but it is interesting that they just haven't called it off. If they haven't called it off, then I really wonder what it is going to take to get NC state over the hump.

Econ141 said:

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sycasey said:

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Econ141 said:

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Have been away all day so not sure if this has been posted but ACC is not looking likely:

https://www.si.com/college/2023/08/11/stanford-cal-acc-unlikely-future-unclear-pac-12

We are toast.

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Quite strange to me that NC State would be a vote against. I don't think they're in a safe position if the ACC collapses.

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Pat Forde is fairly reliable I believe - not sure what NC St's deal is with this but it is interesting that they just haven't called it off. If they haven't called it off, then I really wonder what it is going to take to get NC state over the hump.

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Yeah they really seem flippable to me. I wonder what the objection is.

The four ACC schools that opposed the additions of Stanford and Cal at the Wed. night presidents’ meeting were Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina and North Carolina State, source confirms to @TheAthletic. Would need to flip one of the four to get to 12 yes votes out of 15.

— Nicole Auerbach (@NicoleAuerbach) August 11, 2023

Econ141 said:

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sycasey said:

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Econ141 said:

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Have been away all day so not sure if this has been posted but ACC is not looking likely:

https://www.si.com/college/2023/08/11/stanford-cal-acc-unlikely-future-unclear-pac-12

We are toast.

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Quite strange to me that NC State would be a vote against. I don't think they're in a safe position if the ACC collapses.

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Pat Forde is fairly reliable I believe - not sure what NC St's deal is with this but it is interesting that they just haven't called it off. If they haven't called it off, then I really wonder what it is going to take to get NC state over the hump.

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think about the loss of revenue from playing Stanford or Cal. more members means NC State may go more time without a match up against Clemson or Florida State that packs their stadiums. I think they want an increase in funding if they are going to fly out to the Bay to get smacked around.

Econ141 said:

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Interesting:

Have been told CFP eligibility will follow NCAA requirements on this issue https://t.co/BaHRCztubr

— Jon Wilner (@wilnerhotline) August 11, 2023

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Exactly. If the B1G and /or ACC do not admit us we have two years that we can play as the PAC-4 without having to pay exit fees to bring anyone else in. Apple streaming on a year to year basis at least. A scheduling agreement with the B1G or Notre Dame and the ACC.
A great path to the CFP with the money split only 4 ways. As many Olympic sports in the Big West as possible.

Over the next two years we negotiate for the reconstitution of the Pac-8 as the West Coast pod of the B1G or Cal Stanford addition to the ACC.

If over there next year or even two we do not have anything better we add 4 teams (or OSU and WSU add 6 teams) for 2026 to be the PAC-8. That is when the MWC GORs expire.

Just don't give up and join the MWC now.

BarcaBear said:

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Econ141 said:

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sycasey said:

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Econ141 said:

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Have been away all day so not sure if this has been posted but ACC is not looking likely:

https://www.si.com/college/2023/08/11/stanford-cal-acc-unlikely-future-unclear-pac-12

We are toast.

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Quite strange to me that NC State would be a vote against. I don't think they're in a safe position if the ACC collapses.

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Pat Forde is fairly reliable I believe - not sure what NC St's deal is with this but it is interesting that they just haven't called it off. If they haven't called it off, then I really wonder what it is going to take to get NC state over the hump.

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think about the loss of revenue from playing Stanford or Cal. more members means NC State may go more time without a match up against Clemson or Florida State that packs their stadiums. I think they want an increase in funding if they are going to fly out to the Bay to get smacked around.

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They would only fly out to the Bay once every two years. Having 16 conference opponents instead of 14 is not a huge difference, but maybe Notre Dame increase its number of ACC games to make up for the small difference?

ESPN reportedly would pay all travel expenses and pay full shares to the ACC for us, but the ACC would keep 30-40% to share among the current members. So the deal presented already increases NCState's revenues. Maybe they are just negotiating for more?

A four team league isn't getting into the CFP. Sankey suggested as much this week on Finebaum.

calumnus said:

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Econ141 said:

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Interesting:

Have been told CFP eligibility will follow NCAA requirements on this issue https://t.co/BaHRCztubr

— Jon Wilner (@wilnerhotline) August 11, 2023

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Exactly. If the B1G and /or ACC do not admit us we have two years that we can play as the PAC-4 without having to pay exit fees to bring anyone else in. Apple streaming on a year to year basis at least. A scheduling agreement with the B1G or Notre Dame and the ACC.
A great path to the CFP with the money split only 4 ways. As many Olympic sports in the Big West as possible.

Over the next two years we negotiate for the reconstitution of the Pac-8 as the West Coast pod of the B1G or Cal Stanford addition to the ACC.

If over there next year or even two we do not have anything better we add 4 teams (or OSU and WSU add 6 teams) for 2026 to be the PAC-8. That is when the MWC GORs expire.

Just don't give up and join the MWC now.

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You know we will.

BarcaBear said:

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Econ141 said:

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sycasey said:

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Econ141 said:

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Have been away all day so not sure if this has been posted but ACC is not looking likely:

https://www.si.com/college/2023/08/11/stanford-cal-acc-unlikely-future-unclear-pac-12

We are toast.

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Quite strange to me that NC State would be a vote against. I don't think they're in a safe position if the ACC collapses.

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Pat Forde is fairly reliable I believe - not sure what NC St's deal is with this but it is interesting that they just haven't called it off. If they haven't called it off, then I really wonder what it is going to take to get NC state over the hump.

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think about the loss of revenue from playing Stanford or Cal. more members means NC State may go more time without a match up against Clemson or Florida State that packs their stadiums. I think they want an increase in funding if they are going to fly out to the Bay to get smacked around.

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True but then why are all the other schools outside of ND saying yes? Don't they all have the same issue.

What did we ever do to North Carolina that made them so salty?

FSU and Clemson ain't budging, and NC State will do whatever UNC does, so ... https://t.co/vK118SyzjV

— Stewart Mandel (@slmandel) August 11, 2023

read as it says above that NC state will do whatever UNC does. Also, UNC feels they might in a good position if the ACC dissolves. They feel good about joining the SEC or at least think it will shake out in their favor.

Cal Insider said:

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read as it says above that NC state will do whatever UNC does. Also, UNC feels they might in a good position if the ACC dissolves. They feel good about joining the SEC or at least think it will shake out in their favor.

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I'm pretty sure they have their eyes set on the B1G, not the SEC.

BigDaddy said:

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A four team league isn't getting into the CFP. Sankey suggested as much this week on Finebaum.

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So what? Why are you Shillong fit the SEC? It was released today (posted above) that that the CFP will follow the NCAA rules.

Sankey can continue to say what he wants but he is only one vote, same as Kliavkoff at this point. Most of the conferences know they could one day wind up in the same situation and will not back the SEC on a rule change to cut the Pac-4 out completely when the NCAA still recognizes us as a FBS conference. I'm sure the CFP lawyers have something to say too.

Besides, think about what he is asking for: he is proposing that a team that is ranked BELOW the PAC-4 champ be included instead of the PAC-4 champ.

This piece suggests that Stanford drives the bus. https://sports.yahoo.com/where-do-pac-12s-remaining-4-end-up-after-latest-conference-realignment-shakeup-160519223.html

calumnus said:

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BarcaBear said:

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Econ141 said:

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sycasey said:

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Econ141 said:

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Have been away all day so not sure if this has been posted but ACC is not looking likely:

https://www.si.com/college/2023/08/11/stanford-cal-acc-unlikely-future-unclear-pac-12

We are toast.

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Quite strange to me that NC State would be a vote against. I don't think they're in a safe position if the ACC collapses.

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Pat Forde is fairly reliable I believe - not sure what NC St's deal is with this but it is interesting that they just haven't called it off. If they haven't called it off, then I really wonder what it is going to take to get NC state over the hump.

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think about the loss of revenue from playing Stanford or Cal. more members means NC State may go more time without a match up against Clemson or Florida State that packs their stadiums. I think they want an increase in funding if they are going to fly out to the Bay to get smacked around.

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They would only fly out to the Bay once every two years. Having 16 conference opponents instead of 14 is not a huge difference, but maybe Notre Dame increase its number of ACC games to make up for the small difference?

ESPN reportedly would pay all travel expenses and pay full shares to the ACC for us, but the ACC would keep 30-40% to share among the current members. So the deal presented already increases NCState's revenues. Maybe they are just negotiating for more?

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Maybe NC State is hoping to tag along to the SEC or Big Ten with one of the three that have a strong chance, and just wants to vote as they vote.

I don't know what the number is or if I believe it is the "4" but per SI below It seems like there are 7 secessionists and the remaining members see Cal and Stanford as a disaster hedge against the secessionists; while the secessionists seek more welfare. This seems like it will break up no matter which way the vote goes because neither side will get what they want; and /if the adversaries are as reported- leaves an inferior football conference. Of course Notre Dame could act as white knight by joining the conference instead of advocating that the conference which they won't join take additional schools

"In the spring, news broke that seven of the 14 football-In the spring, news broke that seven of the 14 football-playing membersFlorida State, Clemson, Miami, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Virginia and Virginia Techhad met to explore options outside the ACC. That triggered some tense face-to-face meetings and ultimately led to the league approving unequal revenue distribution to schools that had success in the College Football Playoff and NCAA basketball tournament."

Anarchistbear said:

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I don't know what the number is or if I believe in the "4" is but per SI below It seems like there are 7 secessionists and the remaining members see Cal and Stanford as a disaster hedge against the secessionists; while the secessionists seek more welfare. This seems like it will break up no matter which way the vote goes because neither side will get what they want; and /if the adversaries are as reported- leaves an inferior football conference. Of course Notre Dame could act as white knight by joining the conference instead of advocating that the conference which they won't join take additional schools

"In the spring, news broke that seven of the 14 football-In the spring, news broke that seven of the 14 football-playing membersFlorida State, Clemson, Miami, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Virginia and Virginia Techhad met to explore options outside the ACC. That triggered some tense face-to-face meetings and ultimately led to the league approving unequal revenue distribution to schools that had success in the College Football Playoff and NCAA basketball tournament."

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The ACC would fall apart in a moment were it not for its GOR that binds the members through 2036. There has been a lot of speculation that perhaps the GOR could be broken in court but it's not at all clear there's a winning argument to do that. Presumably new members would join the GOR. That would lock us into the conference until then.

I see joining the A & P (as it would have to be called) as undesirable. Anyone who has flown east knows that it is a difficult trip. There are places in the ACC e.g. Virginia Tech, Virginia, Florida State, Clemson, Syracuse that are especially hard to reach.But I understand why this seems like the best alternative.

If we want to keep a Big Ten option open, we have to become an independent No conference is going to take us unless we commit in blood not to jump to the Big Ten.. But I doubt we could develop much of a schedule as an independent. Stanford and UCLA would probably play us; Army, as another independent, always needs teams to schedule. Who else? There are fewer slots for OOC games now that the conferences are getting bigger, and schools want to play patsies to pad their records.

sycasey said:

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Cal Insider said:

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read as it says above that NC state will do whatever UNC does.

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Still wondering why NC State would do whatever UNC does. UNC wouldn't help them if the ACC fell apart.

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I'm betting on state politics.

I think the best option now is to cling to whatever life raft is offerred. I do believe that all this agglomeration and chaos will eventually lead to a good amount of leftovers that could form coherent alliances and conferences on geographical grounds. This is a classic tale of money, greed, haves and have nots. There's going to be more have nots because that's how our system works; the fact that it is all happening in the context of "academies" makes it all that more iconic.

I wonder if there is still a big "wait and see" attitude towards that August 15 deadline, when everyone will know if any school is planning on leaving the ACC.