This is nuts. One prediction for 106-107 degrees, and a second for 98-99 degrees, for a 2:30 pm local time start in Texas. And no conceivable reason on God's green earth not to move it back to the evening hours, save one: ESPN's wanting to fill this particular time slot with this particular game.
Cal. v. North Texas.
This will not be the only college football game broadcast at that time. And, with no disrespect meant to either program, it will not be the most watched game at that time.
So, ESPN? Could you ballpark for me the drop, if any, in your revenue, that would follow your pushing the start time back to 7pm local and broadcasting the game on one of your subsidiary cable channels (or even later that night) if need be? I'll bet it's not all that much. And North Texas, I'd bet, would gain by selling significantly more seats. A seven pm start on a Saturday night for the first game of the season, vs a midafternoon start in 106 degree sun? Later would be seem to way better for their program and fan base. They have a new coach and want to get off to the the best possible start.
Now, suppose the heat comes in as high as predicted, or even higher, in the afternoon sun, on a big synthetic carpet. Like 110 or 115 degrees on the field. Athletes can suffer heatstroke and succumb from exertion in extreme heat. It happens. Not often, but it happens. And when it does, it's sudden-onset, and there's no guarantee that staff will even notice it in time. All the Gatorade in the stadium may be too late to fix it.
God forbid that anything like that happens in this game next Saturday. But suppose it does. How is the decision to go forward and play in those conditions going to look in retrospect? How is ESPN's marginal gain from the mid-day start going to stack up against what a victim and a victim's family might claim? How will the schools look for agreeing to proceed in those conditions, in order to get the TV money?
ESPN should be trying to optimize the value and appeal of its product. Instead it's doing just the opposite by treating match-ups as fungible commodities to fill time slots, without any regard for how predictable extreme heat will degrade the very product ESPN purports to be selling. We could have an exciting opening game for both schools in a packed, energized house on an admittedly hot but bearable Saturday night. Instead we likely get an afternoon blast-furnace, trial by fire for the players, while the fans hardy enough to show up at stagger around in search of shade. The game becomes all about the heat, how many players puke on the sidelines, and who collapses first.
