The financial implications of not firing a bad coach

2,544 Views | 49 Replies | Last: 2 hrs ago by sycasey
Cal88
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calumnus said:

Fire Starkey said:

calumnus said:

Based on this year, our toughest games next year are SMU in Memorial and Louisville and Virginia Tech on the road.

https://fbschedules.com/2025-california-football-schedule/
If Cal finishes 6-6 or worse, Wilcox should be fired regardless of the buyout (hopefully something lower can be negotiated). If we win 7, he likely sticks and he definitely sticks at 8 or 9 wins. Our remaining schedule has all 6 games as very winnable and we are likely favored in 5 of them at minimum. SMU looks tricky but it still falls in the winnable category. That doesn't mean we'll win 5 or all 6 of the remaining games, obvs. We are 2-0 when favored in Vegas, 1-3 when an underdog this season.

Our schedule next year is the weakest in at least 25 years and likely 50 years+. All 12 games are winnable without a single "ehhhhh" on the schedule. 2025 is a MASSIVE opportunity to keep Cal relevant. There will be challenges...i.e. most of the starting defense will have graduated, we'll have to re-work the Oline again, Ott will be gone but the rest of the offensive skill players should/hopefully remain.

The big question is whether Wilcox will be here to see if that opportunity can be taken up. All depends on the remainder of this year's schedule. If we win 5+, hopefully some donor momentum reappears cause we'll need a lot more than the $2.5M raised by Cal Legends recently. That new D and some OL wont be cheap. But the chance remains. If we crater, Wilcox MUST BE fired, as our window to stay with the big boys probably evaporates after '25. If we miss out on the next round of re-alignment, the AD as a whole has to hope that donors step up to endow the non-rev sports like they have in a few spots (Golf, Water polo, etc.) otherwise a bunch will disappear and football is playing in the Mountain West, at best.

Just my random thoughts


It is a huge opportunity to bring in a new coach, Ron Rivera at least, and have him make a huge splash coming out of the gate.

It's not economically feasible to fire Wilcox before 2026 at the earliest. What is our total NIL budget this year? His buyout dwarfs that. It would be more cost effective to invest whatever extra funds we can get on NIL.
Fred Bear
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calumnus said:

Fire Starkey said:

calumnus said:

Based on this year, our toughest games next year are SMU in Memorial and Louisville and Virginia Tech on the road.

https://fbschedules.com/2025-california-football-schedule/
If Cal finishes 6-6 or worse, Wilcox should be fired regardless of the buyout (hopefully something lower can be negotiated). If we win 7, he likely sticks and he definitely sticks at 8 or 9 wins. Our remaining schedule has all 6 games as very winnable and we are likely favored in 5 of them at minimum. SMU looks tricky but it still falls in the winnable category. That doesn't mean we'll win 5 or all 6 of the remaining games, obvs. We are 2-0 when favored in Vegas, 1-3 when an underdog this season.

Our schedule next year is the weakest in at least 25 years and likely 50 years+. All 12 games are winnable without a single "ehhhhh" on the schedule. 2025 is a MASSIVE opportunity to keep Cal relevant. There will be challenges...i.e. most of the starting defense will have graduated, we'll have to re-work the Oline again, Ott will be gone but the rest of the offensive skill players should/hopefully remain.

The big question is whether Wilcox will be here to see if that opportunity can be taken up. All depends on the remainder of this year's schedule. If we win 5+, hopefully some donor momentum reappears cause we'll need a lot more than the $2.5M raised by Cal Legends recently. That new D and some OL wont be cheap. But the chance remains. If we crater, Wilcox MUST BE fired, as our window to stay with the big boys probably evaporates after '25. If we miss out on the next round of re-alignment, the AD as a whole has to hope that donors step up to endow the non-rev sports like they have in a few spots (Golf, Water polo, etc.) otherwise a bunch will disappear and football is playing in the Mountain West, at best.

Just my random thoughts
It is a huge opportunity to bring in a new coach, Ron Rivera at least, and have him make a huge splash coming out of the gate.
Are you related to Ron Rivera or something? Why does every third post of yours involve Ron Rivera being athletic director or coach to try and mitigate Cal's perpetual athletic mismanagement?

Old NFL coaches that haven't had a winning record since 2017 do not make good college coaches. In fact, Ron Rivera only had three winning records in his entire 13 year NFL head coaching career. He is not a temporary solution to Cal's problems. I don't care how much he loves Cal or contributes to an NIL Fund to buy players that a bad college coach misuses. The solution to Cal's problems is to understand that the mistakes with Knowlton and Wilcox are sunk costs. Waiting to them to get cheap enough to undo is putting the stake into the revenue sports for Cal athletics for good, which would undoubtedly make a large portion of the Cal community very happy. When you make a mistake, you have to acknowledge it and fix it.

Cal fans would be far better served by cutting off the money spigot to Cal athletics and stop buying tickets and stop making donations to both NIL, athletics, and frankly academics as well than to keep investing hope that NIL or Ron Rivera is going to plug the hole in the dike.
Bowlesman80
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And, yet, from various pundits and coaches, we hear a continuous chorus of praise about Wilcox.

"WIlcox is a good coach."
-NC State Coach in Presser

"We know Justin Wilcox is a good coach."
-Mark Packer ACC PM

Chip Patterson, after our loss to Pitt, could not understand why Cal Twitter was complaining about Justin Wilcox.

My take, regardless of how I feel about JW (I say we wait 1.5 seasons):

New to conference Honeymoon (not in terms of officiating, just cordiality). It's bad form for the conference and outsiders to openly criticize.

I can't figure out whether or not Patterson was being sarcastic, since he started the whole Insta Reaction on Sunday with a snipe about Cal's kicking.



"Just win, baby."
southseasbear
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Bowlesman80 said:

And, yet, from various pundits and coaches, we hear a continuous chorus of praise about Wilcox.

"WIlcox is a good coach."
-NC State Coach in Presser

"We know Justin Wilcox is a good coach."
-Mark Packer ACC PM

Chip Patterson, after our loss to Pitt, could not understand why Cal Twitter was complaining about Justin Wilcox.

My take, regardless of how I feel about JW (I say we wait 1.5 seasons):

New to conference Honeymoon (not in terms of officiating, just cordiality). It's bad form for the conference and outsiders to openly criticize.

I can't figure out whether or not Patterson was being sarcastic, since he started the whole Insta Reaction on Sunday with a snipe about Cal's kicking.




If I were the coach of another team in the conference, I would want Cal to keep Wilcox too, particularly with Cal getting NIL. I'm sure there were Pac-10 coaches who sung the praises of Gilbertson and Holmoe.
oski003
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southseasbear said:

Bowlesman80 said:

And, yet, from various pundits and coaches, we hear a continuous chorus of praise about Wilcox.

"WIlcox is a good coach."
-NC State Coach in Presser

"We know Justin Wilcox is a good coach."
-Mark Packer ACC PM

Chip Patterson, after our loss to Pitt, could not understand why Cal Twitter was complaining about Justin Wilcox.

My take, regardless of how I feel about JW (I say we wait 1.5 seasons):

New to conference Honeymoon (not in terms of officiating, just cordiality). It's bad form for the conference and outsiders to openly criticize.

I can't figure out whether or not Patterson was being sarcastic, since he started the whole Insta Reaction on Sunday with a snipe about Cal's kicking.




If I were the coach of another team in the conference, I would want Cal to keep Wilcox too, particularly with Cal getting NIL. I'm sure there were Pac-10 coaches who sung the praises of Gilbertson and Holmoe.


Is Cal the only school getting NIL? You talk like this is unique to us.
DoubtfulBear
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Bowlesman80 said:

And, yet, from various pundits and coaches, we hear a continuous chorus of praise about Wilcox.

"WIlcox is a good coach."
-NC State Coach in Presser

"We know Justin Wilcox is a good coach."
-Mark Packer ACC PM

Chip Patterson, after our loss to Pitt, could not understand why Cal Twitter was complaining about Justin Wilcox.

My take, regardless of how I feel about JW (I say we wait 1.5 seasons):

New to conference Honeymoon (not in terms of officiating, just cordiality). It's bad form for the conference and outsiders to openly criticize.

I can't figure out whether or not Patterson was being sarcastic, since he started the whole Insta Reaction on Sunday with a snipe about Cal's kicking.




Everyone else has an incredibly low expectation of us. The fact that we kept these games close but don't actually win is great for them
82gradDLSdad
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DoubtfulBear said:

Bowlesman80 said:

And, yet, from various pundits and coaches, we hear a continuous chorus of praise about Wilcox.

"WIlcox is a good coach."
-NC State Coach in Presser

"We know Justin Wilcox is a good coach."
-Mark Packer ACC PM

Chip Patterson, after our loss to Pitt, could not understand why Cal Twitter was complaining about Justin Wilcox.

My take, regardless of how I feel about JW (I say we wait 1.5 seasons):

New to conference Honeymoon (not in terms of officiating, just cordiality). It's bad form for the conference and outsiders to openly criticize.

I can't figure out whether or not Patterson was being sarcastic, since he started the whole Insta Reaction on Sunday with a snipe about Cal's kicking.




Everyone else has an incredibly low expectation of us. The fact that we kept these games close but don't actually win is great for them
This. I have a USF grad friend who messaged me after our opening day win against Davis. He said his Cal HOF dad, Ron Gaggerro, was happy up in heaven. I said I don't think he'd be happy. He went on to basically say what your post says: Cal has never been that good in football so any win is good.
Bowlesman80
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82gradDLSdad said:

DoubtfulBear said:

Bowlesman80 said:

And, yet, from various pundits and coaches, we hear a continuous chorus of praise about Wilcox.

"WIlcox is a good coach."
-NC State Coach in Presser

"We know Justin Wilcox is a good coach."
-Mark Packer ACC PM

Chip Patterson, after our loss to Pitt, could not understand why Cal Twitter was complaining about Justin Wilcox.

My take, regardless of how I feel about JW (I say we wait 1.5 seasons):

New to conference Honeymoon (not in terms of officiating, just cordiality). It's bad form for the conference and outsiders to openly criticize.

I can't figure out whether or not Patterson was being sarcastic, since he started the whole Insta Reaction on Sunday with a snipe about Cal's kicking.




Everyone else has an incredibly low expectation of us. The fact that we kept these games close but don't actually win is great for them
This. I have a USF grad friend who messaged me after our opening day win against Davis. He said his Cal HOF dad, Ron Gaggerro, was happy up in heaven. I said I don't think he'd be happy. He went on to basically say what your post says: Cal has never been that good in football so any win is good.
That low expectation is killing our program.
Hunt and kill, Bear, or die.
"Just win, baby."
southseasbear
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oski003 said:

southseasbear said:

Bowlesman80 said:

And, yet, from various pundits and coaches, we hear a continuous chorus of praise about Wilcox.

"WIlcox is a good coach."
-NC State Coach in Presser

"We know Justin Wilcox is a good coach."
-Mark Packer ACC PM

Chip Patterson, after our loss to Pitt, could not understand why Cal Twitter was complaining about Justin Wilcox.

My take, regardless of how I feel about JW (I say we wait 1.5 seasons):

New to conference Honeymoon (not in terms of officiating, just cordiality). It's bad form for the conference and outsiders to openly criticize.

I can't figure out whether or not Patterson was being sarcastic, since he started the whole Insta Reaction on Sunday with a snipe about Cal's kicking.




If I were the coach of another team in the conference, I would want Cal to keep Wilcox too, particularly with Cal getting NIL. I'm sure there were Pac-10 coaches who sung the praises of Gilbertson and Holmoe.


Is Cal the only school getting NIL? You talk like this is unique to us.
Not the only school, but do you think the NC State (whose coach praised Wilcox) is getting more than us?
oski003
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southseasbear said:

oski003 said:

southseasbear said:

Bowlesman80 said:

And, yet, from various pundits and coaches, we hear a continuous chorus of praise about Wilcox.

"WIlcox is a good coach."
-NC State Coach in Presser

"We know Justin Wilcox is a good coach."
-Mark Packer ACC PM

Chip Patterson, after our loss to Pitt, could not understand why Cal Twitter was complaining about Justin Wilcox.

My take, regardless of how I feel about JW (I say we wait 1.5 seasons):

New to conference Honeymoon (not in terms of officiating, just cordiality). It's bad form for the conference and outsiders to openly criticize.

I can't figure out whether or not Patterson was being sarcastic, since he started the whole Insta Reaction on Sunday with a snipe about Cal's kicking.




If I were the coach of another team in the conference, I would want Cal to keep Wilcox too, particularly with Cal getting NIL. I'm sure there were Pac-10 coaches who sung the praises of Gilbertson and Holmoe.


Is Cal the only school getting NIL? You talk like this is unique to us.
Not the only school, but do you think the NC State (whose coach praised Wilcox) is getting more than us?


Probably not, but we beat teams that do.
calumnus
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oski003 said:

southseasbear said:

oski003 said:

southseasbear said:

Bowlesman80 said:

And, yet, from various pundits and coaches, we hear a continuous chorus of praise about Wilcox.

"WIlcox is a good coach."
-NC State Coach in Presser

"We know Justin Wilcox is a good coach."
-Mark Packer ACC PM

Chip Patterson, after our loss to Pitt, could not understand why Cal Twitter was complaining about Justin Wilcox.

My take, regardless of how I feel about JW (I say we wait 1.5 seasons):

New to conference Honeymoon (not in terms of officiating, just cordiality). It's bad form for the conference and outsiders to openly criticize.

I can't figure out whether or not Patterson was being sarcastic, since he started the whole Insta Reaction on Sunday with a snipe about Cal's kicking.




If I were the coach of another team in the conference, I would want Cal to keep Wilcox too, particularly with Cal getting NIL. I'm sure there were Pac-10 coaches who sung the praises of Gilbertson and Holmoe.


Is Cal the only school getting NIL? You talk like this is unique to us.
Not the only school, but do you think the NC State (whose coach praised Wilcox) is getting more than us?


Probably not, but we beat teams that do.


Teams? We have 3 wins. The only team comparable might be Auburn but we had the #17 portal class, they had the #27 and the suggestion that San Diego State and UC Davis have anything close to our NIL is laughable.

I wish there were an alternate universe where you could go have Knowlton and Wilcox for 20 years and enjoy losing twice as many conference games as you win and call it "good" and those of us who believe Cal can do a lot better would not have to constantly argue the point.
BearChemist
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calumnus said:

oski003 said:

southseasbear said:

oski003 said:

southseasbear said:

Bowlesman80 said:

And, yet, from various pundits and coaches, we hear a continuous chorus of praise about Wilcox.

"WIlcox is a good coach."
-NC State Coach in Presser

"We know Justin Wilcox is a good coach."
-Mark Packer ACC PM

Chip Patterson, after our loss to Pitt, could not understand why Cal Twitter was complaining about Justin Wilcox.

My take, regardless of how I feel about JW (I say we wait 1.5 seasons):

New to conference Honeymoon (not in terms of officiating, just cordiality). It's bad form for the conference and outsiders to openly criticize.

I can't figure out whether or not Patterson was being sarcastic, since he started the whole Insta Reaction on Sunday with a snipe about Cal's kicking.




If I were the coach of another team in the conference, I would want Cal to keep Wilcox too, particularly with Cal getting NIL. I'm sure there were Pac-10 coaches who sung the praises of Gilbertson and Holmoe.


Is Cal the only school getting NIL? You talk like this is unique to us.
Not the only school, but do you think the NC State (whose coach praised Wilcox) is getting more than us?


Probably not, but we beat teams that do.


Teams? We have 3 wins. The only team comparable might be Auburn but we had the #17 portal class, they had the #27 and the suggestion that San Diego State and UC Davis have anything close to our NIL is laughable.

I wish there were an alternate universe where you could go have Knowlton and Wilcox for 20 years and enjoy losing twice as many conference games as you win and call it "good" and those of us who believe Cal can do a lot better would not have to constantly argue the point.
You are wasting time reasoning with Wilcox apologists.
oski003
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calumnus said:

oski003 said:

southseasbear said:

oski003 said:

southseasbear said:

Bowlesman80 said:

And, yet, from various pundits and coaches, we hear a continuous chorus of praise about Wilcox.

"WIlcox is a good coach."
-NC State Coach in Presser

"We know Justin Wilcox is a good coach."
-Mark Packer ACC PM

Chip Patterson, after our loss to Pitt, could not understand why Cal Twitter was complaining about Justin Wilcox.

My take, regardless of how I feel about JW (I say we wait 1.5 seasons):

New to conference Honeymoon (not in terms of officiating, just cordiality). It's bad form for the conference and outsiders to openly criticize.

I can't figure out whether or not Patterson was being sarcastic, since he started the whole Insta Reaction on Sunday with a snipe about Cal's kicking.




If I were the coach of another team in the conference, I would want Cal to keep Wilcox too, particularly with Cal getting NIL. I'm sure there were Pac-10 coaches who sung the praises of Gilbertson and Holmoe.


Is Cal the only school getting NIL? You talk like this is unique to us.
Not the only school, but do you think the NC State (whose coach praised Wilcox) is getting more than us?


Probably not, but we beat teams that do.


Teams? We have 3 wins. The only team comparable might be Auburn but we had the #17 portal class, they had the #27 and the suggestion that San Diego State and UC Davis have anything close to our NIL is laughable.

I wish there were an alternate universe where you could go have Knowlton and Wilcox for 20 years and enjoy losing twice as many conference games as you win and call it "good" and those of us who believe Cal can do a lot better would not have to constantly argue the point.


I didn't realize our players come 100% from the transfer portal. That is new news or are you once again only using data points that support your argument and completely ignoring others?
oski003
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BearChemist said:

calumnus said:

oski003 said:

southseasbear said:

oski003 said:

southseasbear said:

Bowlesman80 said:

And, yet, from various pundits and coaches, we hear a continuous chorus of praise about Wilcox.

"WIlcox is a good coach."
-NC State Coach in Presser

"We know Justin Wilcox is a good coach."
-Mark Packer ACC PM

Chip Patterson, after our loss to Pitt, could not understand why Cal Twitter was complaining about Justin Wilcox.

My take, regardless of how I feel about JW (I say we wait 1.5 seasons):

New to conference Honeymoon (not in terms of officiating, just cordiality). It's bad form for the conference and outsiders to openly criticize.

I can't figure out whether or not Patterson was being sarcastic, since he started the whole Insta Reaction on Sunday with a snipe about Cal's kicking.




If I were the coach of another team in the conference, I would want Cal to keep Wilcox too, particularly with Cal getting NIL. I'm sure there were Pac-10 coaches who sung the praises of Gilbertson and Holmoe.


Is Cal the only school getting NIL? You talk like this is unique to us.
Not the only school, but do you think the NC State (whose coach praised Wilcox) is getting more than us?


Probably not, but we beat teams that do.


Teams? We have 3 wins. The only team comparable might be Auburn but we had the #17 portal class, they had the #27 and the suggestion that San Diego State and UC Davis have anything close to our NIL is laughable.

I wish there were an alternate universe where you could go have Knowlton and Wilcox for 20 years and enjoy losing twice as many conference games as you win and call it "good" and those of us who believe Cal can do a lot better would not have to constantly argue the point.
You are wasting time reasoning with Wilcox apologists.


I don't apologize for Wilcox, but I won't accept Calumnus' lies and exaggerations because he wants Wilcox gone now.
sycasey
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Fire Starkey said:

as our window to stay with the big boys probably evaporates after '25.
I don't deny that Cal needs to work to stay relevant, but why do you say 2025 here? It seems exceedingly unlikely that the ACC will fall apart by next year, and the next major conference TV rights aren't up until 2030.
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