First of all, we need to look at the eligible P12 teams:

Playoff bound:

Oregon - definitely

ASU - possibly, currently leading the B12 at 9-2/6-2, in many analysts plaoff brackets now replacing CU, who lost badly to Kansas yesterday.

CU - less likely to get in the playoffs now at 8-3/6-2
Logjam in B12 with BYU and Iowa St. also 6-2, some uncertainty about which teams will go the B12 CCG should 3 or more of these 4 teams win their last game.

UW 6-5
SC 6-5
(UCLA is out at 4-7)

Wazzu 8-3
OSU 5-6 and out barring upset of BSU.

So there are 4 other eligible teams, possibly 5.

Here is the P12 bowl lineup/pecking order:

Alamo vs Big 12
Holiday vs ACC
Las Vegas vs SEC
Sun vs ACC
LA vs MWC
Independence vs Big 12

It looks like the LA bowl, or Independence.

Would be weird to end up facing an ACC team in the Sun Bowl.

Does anyone know how the bowl revenue sharing will work now? Shared by the conference and paid out to all teams? Or kept by the Pac 2?

ninetyfourbear said:

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Would be weird to end up facing an ACC team in the Sun Bowl.

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I'm guessing the bowls will want to avoid this as much as possible. But I guess if it was a team we didn't play in the regular season it would still be okay.

sycasey said:

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ninetyfourbear said:

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Would be weird to end up facing an ACC team in the Sun Bowl.

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I'm guessing the bowls will want to avoid this as much as possible. But I guess if it was a team we didn't play in the regular season it would still be okay.

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BC, UNC or the winner of UVA-VTech would all qualify and also have 6 wins, and further up the W/L ladder you have Louisville, GTech and Duke, all great matchups with ACC teams we haven't played in ages.

Another wrinkle is SC opened the season in Vegas and played in Holiday last year, that may get bumped down a bit but also if Oregon and Arizona State make the playoff, then the lowest we would ostensibly fall is LA Bowl

1. Oregon
2. ASU
3. Colorado
4. WSU (Guaranteed to be above SC because 2 wins better in overall record
5. USC
6. Cal/UW

If ASU (CU also still has a slight chance) makes playoffs as most predict, the absolute bottom floor is LA Bowl (and it's also most likely destination)

If ASU (or CU) doesn't make playoffs, then it's the doomsday scenario I've been wanting to avoid for weeks.

Oregon playoffs
Alamo: ASU/CU
Holiday: ASU/CU
Vegas: WSU (vegas will have no choice because they are at 8 wins)
Sun: USC (will absolutely jump at the chance of taking SC

So LA bowl will have to decide between cal and UW. Some very prominent people on this board think that in this situation cal is a lock. From a tv ratings perspective, I know who is more attractive.

If no LA, then I think Indy bowl may pass on us. So we're looking at Gasparilla or armed forces bowl.

Bottom line, we need ASU (or CU) to make playoffs

ducky23 said:

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1. Oregon
2. ASU
3. Colorado
4. WSU (Guaranteed to be above SC because 2 wins better in overall record
5. USC
6. Cal/UW

If ASU (CU also still has a slight chance) makes playoffs as most predict, the absolute bottom floor is LA Bowl (and it's also most likely destination)

If ASU (or CU) doesn't make playoffs, then it's the doomsday scenario I've been wanting to avoid for weeks.

Oregon playoffs
Alamo: ASU/CU
Holiday: ASU/CU
Vegas: WSU (vegas will have no choice because they are at 8 wins)
Sun: USC (will absolutely jump at the chance of taking SC

So LA bowl will have to decide between cal and UW. Some very prominent people on this board think that in this situation cal is a lock. From a tv ratings perspective, I know who is more attractive.

If no LA, then I think Indy bowl may pass on us. So we're looking at Gasparilla or armed forces bowl.

Bottom line, we need ASU (or CU) to make playoffs

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I heard folks say we don't want the la bowl because it conflicts with final exams.

Strykur said:

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Another wrinkle is SC opened the season in Vegas and played in Holiday last year, that may get bumped down a bit but also if Oregon and Arizona State make the playoff, then the lowest we would ostensibly fall is LA Bowl

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I see vegas and Sun as being very unlikely.

At a minimum, for that to happen, ASU/Cu would need to make playoffs AND cal would need to beat SMU and the Sun/Vegas would need to prefer Cal over USC and/or UW

If anyone wanted vegas, we needed UW to not be bowl eligible.

oski003 said:

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ducky23 said:

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1. Oregon
2. ASU
3. Colorado
4. WSU (Guaranteed to be above SC because 2 wins better in overall record
5. USC
6. Cal/UW

If ASU (CU also still has a slight chance) makes playoffs as most predict, the absolute bottom floor is LA Bowl (and it's also most likely destination)

If ASU (or CU) doesn't make playoffs, then it's the doomsday scenario I've been wanting to avoid for weeks.

Oregon playoffs
Alamo: ASU/CU
Holiday: ASU/CU
Vegas: WSU (vegas will have no choice because they are at 8 wins)
Sun: USC (will absolutely jump at the chance of taking SC

So LA bowl will have to decide between cal and UW. Some very prominent people on this board think that in this situation cal is a lock. From a tv ratings perspective, I know who is more attractive.

If no LA, then I think Indy bowl may pass on us. So we're looking at Gasparilla or armed forces bowl.

Bottom line, we need ASU (or CU) to make playoffs

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I heard folks say we don't want the la bowl because it conflicts with final exams.

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Those folks are basically shocky.

I'm sure if we had a choice, I could see the staff preferring Sun or vegas, but we probably won't have that choice.

If it's LA or the armed forces bowl, I cannot see us declining a bowl that will provide us with way more exposure.

ducky23 said:

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oski003 said:

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ducky23 said:

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1. Oregon
2. ASU
3. Colorado
4. WSU (Guaranteed to be above SC because 2 wins better in overall record
5. USC
6. Cal/UW

If ASU (CU also still has a slight chance) makes playoffs as most predict, the absolute bottom floor is LA Bowl (and it's also most likely destination)

If ASU (or CU) doesn't make playoffs, then it's the doomsday scenario I've been wanting to avoid for weeks.

Oregon playoffs
Alamo: ASU/CU
Holiday: ASU/CU
Vegas: WSU (vegas will have no choice because they are at 8 wins)
Sun: USC (will absolutely jump at the chance of taking SC

So LA bowl will have to decide between cal and UW. Some very prominent people on this board think that in this situation cal is a lock. From a tv ratings perspective, I know who is more attractive.

If no LA, then I think Indy bowl may pass on us. So we're looking at Gasparilla or armed forces bowl.

Bottom line, we need ASU (or CU) to make playoffs

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I heard folks say we don't want the la bowl because it conflicts with final exams.

---

Those folks are basically shocky.

I'm sure if we had a choice, I could see the staff preferring Sun or vegas, but we probably won't have that choice.

If it's LA or the armed forces bowl, I cannot see us declining a bowl that will provide us with way more exposure.

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We would be doing ourselves no favors going back to Shreveport, Armed Forces Bowl would be silly since our last game is in Dallas, also Arizona State is the favorite to win the Big-12 at this point

ducky23 said:

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oski003 said:

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ducky23 said:

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1. Oregon
2. ASU
3. Colorado
4. WSU (Guaranteed to be above SC because 2 wins better in overall record
5. USC
6. Cal/UW

If ASU (CU also still has a slight chance) makes playoffs as most predict, the absolute bottom floor is LA Bowl (and it's also most likely destination)

If ASU (or CU) doesn't make playoffs, then it's the doomsday scenario I've been wanting to avoid for weeks.

Oregon playoffs
Alamo: ASU/CU
Holiday: ASU/CU
Vegas: WSU (vegas will have no choice because they are at 8 wins)
Sun: USC (will absolutely jump at the chance of taking SC

So LA bowl will have to decide between cal and UW. Some very prominent people on this board think that in this situation cal is a lock. From a tv ratings perspective, I know who is more attractive.

If no LA, then I think Indy bowl may pass on us. So we're looking at Gasparilla or armed forces bowl.

Bottom line, we need ASU (or CU) to make playoffs

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I heard folks say we don't want the la bowl because it conflicts with final exams.

---

Those folks are basically shocky.

I'm sure if we had a choice, I could see the staff preferring Sun or vegas, but we probably won't have that choice.

If it's LA or the armed forces bowl, I cannot see us declining a bowl that will provide us with way more exposure.

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I don't think LA bowl provides more exposure than Armed Forces Bowl.

LA: Wednesday night a week before Xmas probably vs UNLV (in addition to being in the middle of finals week)

Armed Forces: Friday afternoon between Xmas and NYD, likely vs Navy

Our Bears may not have the choice anyway, but LA is better only for ticket-buying fans in California who would have an easier and less costly trip to the bowl site.

At any rate, I agree that there is effectively zero chance of Cal being chosen for the Holiday, Vegas, or Sun, so the realistic possibilities are (1) LA in spite of finals week, (2) Indy in spite of the Bears playing there last year, or (3) ESPN works a deal to put another team in the Indy bowl so that Cal can be "traded" to Armed Forces or a similar ESPN bowl game.

Not that it matters right now but every bowl projection I have seen has Arizona State in the playoff, and us in the LA Bowl at worst against UNLV, although one I thought was nutty had us in the Holiday Bowl, playing...Texas Tech

We better start looking at UNLV tape because they would be a handful

I'm guessing the Independence Bowl doesn't want Cal two years in a row. So if it's not LA we probably go into the pool.

ASU is favored to win the Big 12 right now, but remember that they actually have to win the championship game. Not a sure thing.

Sun is possible if we beat SMU but LA is a near lock. Zero chance we go back to Shreveport

BearSD said:

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ducky23 said:

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oski003 said:

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ducky23 said:

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1. Oregon
2. ASU
3. Colorado
4. WSU (Guaranteed to be above SC because 2 wins better in overall record
5. USC
6. Cal/UW

If ASU (CU also still has a slight chance) makes playoffs as most predict, the absolute bottom floor is LA Bowl (and it's also most likely destination)

If ASU (or CU) doesn't make playoffs, then it's the doomsday scenario I've been wanting to avoid for weeks.

Oregon playoffs
Alamo: ASU/CU
Holiday: ASU/CU
Vegas: WSU (vegas will have no choice because they are at 8 wins)
Sun: USC (will absolutely jump at the chance of taking SC

So LA bowl will have to decide between cal and UW. Some very prominent people on this board think that in this situation cal is a lock. From a tv ratings perspective, I know who is more attractive.

If no LA, then I think Indy bowl may pass on us. So we're looking at Gasparilla or armed forces bowl.

Bottom line, we need ASU (or CU) to make playoffs

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I heard folks say we don't want the la bowl because it conflicts with final exams.

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Those folks are basically shocky.

I'm sure if we had a choice, I could see the staff preferring Sun or vegas, but we probably won't have that choice.

If it's LA or the armed forces bowl, I cannot see us declining a bowl that will provide us with way more exposure.

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I don't think LA bowl provides more exposure than Armed Forces Bowl.

LA: Wednesday night a week before Xmas probably vs UNLV (in addition to being in the middle of finals week)

Armed Forces: Friday afternoon between Xmas and NYD, likely vs Navy

Our Bears may not have the choice anyway, but LA is better only for ticket-buying fans in California who would have an easier and less costly trip to the bowl site.

At any rate, I agree that there is effectively zero chance of Cal being chosen for the Holiday, Vegas, or Sun, so the realistic possibilities are (1) LA in spite of finals week, (2) Indy in spite of the Bears playing there last year, or (3) ESPN works a deal to put another team in the Indy bowl so that Cal can be "traded" to Armed Forces or a similar ESPN bowl game.

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You're right. After looking at the TV ratings, I was pretty shocked to see that the Armed Forces bowl and La bowl have essentially the same avg viewership the last 3 years (Indy bowl not so much).

I'd still argue we'd still rather have the La bowl (though I do understand the Finals argument). Less expenses. I also think our TV ratings will be better with LA bowl v. Lesser bowl just cause more cal fans will be interested in LA bowl.

But lastly, and this is most important, we need excitement/hope/fan momentum going into next year. We need the donor base to be excited. We need the calgorithm to be excited and pumping out content.

Going to the armed forces bowl or wherever is going to be a complete dud. No one will be excited. No one will show up.

If it's LA bowl, it's going to be a party. We will have a minimum 10k show up, probably way more. In any normal time, I wouldn't care so much. But when every little inch counts for realignment, LA bowl has to be the clear choice here.

It needs to look to the outside world that we have fans. That we care. LA bowl is by far the best bet for that.

Fire Starkey said:

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Sun is possible if we beat SMU but LA is a near lock. Zero chance we go back to Shreveport

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At 7-5 we might be a little more attractive than 6-6 SC or Washington but also pretty difficult to get dudes fired up for spending NYE in El Paso

Fire Starkey said:

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Sun is possible if we beat SMU but LA is a near lock. Zero chance we go back to Shreveport

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ASU has a 40% chance of making playoffs. CU probably has >10% chance.

Not sure how LA bowl is a near lock. Why would LA bowl take Cal over UW if UW will provide better tv ratings?

ducky23 said:

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Fire Starkey said:

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Sun is possible if we beat SMU but LA is a near lock. Zero chance we go back to Shreveport

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ASU has a 40% chance of making playoffs. CU probably has >10% chance.

Not sure how LA bowl is a near lock. Why would LA bowl take Cal over UW if UW will provide better tv ratings?

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This is not difficult:

Oregon: playoffs
Arizona State: playoffs

Alamo: Colorado
Holiday: Wazzu
Sun: SC/Washington
Vegas: SC/Washington
LA: California

Also, the probable matchup for Arizona State (should they beat Arizona who is lousy) in the Big-12 championship is Iowa State, but if Iowa State loses, Arizona State and BYU would re-match, but if both Iowa State and BYU lose, then it's Arizona State versus Colorado, and then we're in LA no matter what

Strykur said:

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ducky23 said:

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Fire Starkey said:

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Sun is possible if we beat SMU but LA is a near lock. Zero chance we go back to Shreveport

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ASU has a 40% chance of making playoffs. CU probably has >10% chance.

Not sure how LA bowl is a near lock. Why would LA bowl take Cal over UW if UW will provide better tv ratings?

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This is not difficult:

Oregon: playoffs
Arizona State: playoffs

Alamo: Colorado
Holiday: Wazzu
Sun: SC/Washington
Vegas: SC/Washington
LA: California

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How is that a lock? If it is, you need to tell me so I can put some money on ASU

Strykur said:

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ducky23 said:

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Fire Starkey said:

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Sun is possible if we beat SMU but LA is a near lock. Zero chance we go back to Shreveport

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ASU has a 40% chance of making playoffs. CU probably has >10% chance.

Not sure how LA bowl is a near lock. Why would LA bowl take Cal over UW if UW will provide better tv ratings?

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This is not difficult:

Oregon: playoffs
Arizona State: playoffs

Alamo: Colorado
Holiday: Wazzu
Sun: SC/Washington
Vegas: SC/Washington
LA: California

Also, the probable matchup for Arizona State (should they beat Arizona who is lousy) in the Big-12 championship is Iowa State, but if Iowa State loses, Arizona State and BYU would re-match, but if both Iowa State and BYU lose, then it's Arizona State versus Colorado, and then we're in LA no matter what

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And if ASU or Colorado does not make the playoffs?

sycasey said:

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Strykur said:

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ducky23 said:

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Fire Starkey said:

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Sun is possible if we beat SMU but LA is a near lock. Zero chance we go back to Shreveport

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ASU has a 40% chance of making playoffs. CU probably has >10% chance.

Not sure how LA bowl is a near lock. Why would LA bowl take Cal over UW if UW will provide better tv ratings?

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This is not difficult:

Oregon: playoffs
Arizona State: playoffs

Alamo: Colorado
Holiday: Wazzu
Sun: SC/Washington
Vegas: SC/Washington
LA: California

Also, the probable matchup for Arizona State (should they beat Arizona who is lousy) in the Big-12 championship is Iowa State, but if Iowa State loses, Arizona State and BYU would re-match, but if both Iowa State and BYU lose, then it's Arizona State versus Colorado, and then we're in LA no matter what

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And if ASU or Colorado does not make the playoffs?

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If both don't make it, see ya in Shreveport (unless we beat SMU)

Sporting News has us in Holiday against Texas Tech. I can only imagine its cause of ticket sales - i think we did well in our two trips to the Holiday Bowl. They pick after Alamo Bowl right?

MilleniaBear said:

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Sporting News has us in Holiday against Texas Tech. I can only imagine its cause of ticket sales - i think we did well in our two trips to the Holiday Bowl. They pick after Alamo Bowl right?

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Yeah, before Sun

I doubt Indpendence Bowl will want us again. We aren't going to Armed Forces Bowl because we would have just played in Dallas. Its LA or nothing. And if its LA and during finals week, the team would be hard pressed to be hyped for any game. See 2023 Indy Bowl results.

Strykur said:

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ducky23 said:

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Fire Starkey said:

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Sun is possible if we beat SMU but LA is a near lock. Zero chance we go back to Shreveport

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ASU has a 40% chance of making playoffs. CU probably has >10% chance.

Not sure how LA bowl is a near lock. Why would LA bowl take Cal over UW if UW will provide better tv ratings?

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This is not difficult:

Oregon: playoffs
Arizona State: playoffs

Alamo: Colorado
Holiday: Wazzu
Sun: SC/Washington
Vegas: SC/Washington
LA: California

Also, the probable matchup for Arizona State (should they beat Arizona who is lousy) in the Big-12 championship is Iowa State, but if Iowa State loses, Arizona State and BYU would re-match, but if both Iowa State and BYU lose, then it's Arizona State versus Colorado, and then we're in LA no matter what

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If we beat #13 SMU, at 7-5 we might be more attractive to the Holiday than a Mountain West schedule 9-3 Wazzu.

MilleniaBear said:

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Sporting News has us in Holiday against Texas Tech. I can only imagine its cause of ticket sales - i think we did well in our two trips to the Holiday Bowl. They pick after Alamo Bowl right?

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This is why you don't look at bowl projections.

The only way this happens is if a) Alamo takes WSU over CU AND then holiday takes Cal over CU (neither of those would ever happen) or b) cal beats SMU, WSU loses to Wyoming (2-9). A bowl cannot take a team 2 wins better in overall standings.

ducky23 said:

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MilleniaBear said:

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Sporting News has us in Holiday against Texas Tech. I can only imagine its cause of ticket sales - i think we did well in our two trips to the Holiday Bowl. They pick after Alamo Bowl right?

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This is why you don't look at bowl projections.

The only way this happens is if a) Alamo takes WSU over CU AND then holiday takes Cal over CU (neither of those would ever happen) or b) cal beats SMU, WSU loses to Wyoming (2-9). A bowl cannot take a team 2 wins better in overall standings.

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I can see this rule being binding if we're actually in the same conference, but they're really in the MWC, have losses to OSU and New Mexico, and barely beat SDSU...

MilleniaBear said:

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Sporting News has us in Holiday against Texas Tech. I can only imagine its cause of ticket sales - i think we did well in our two trips to the Holiday Bowl. They pick after Alamo Bowl right?

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How would Texas Tech get in the Holiday Bowl? The tie-ins are PAC-12 and ACC.

Cal88 said:

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ducky23 said:

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MilleniaBear said:

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Sporting News has us in Holiday against Texas Tech. I can only imagine its cause of ticket sales - i think we did well in our two trips to the Holiday Bowl. They pick after Alamo Bowl right?

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This is why you don't look at bowl projections.

The only way this happens is if a) Alamo takes WSU over CU AND then holiday takes Cal over CU (neither of those would ever happen) or b) cal beats SMU, WSU loses to Wyoming (2-9). A bowl cannot take a team 2 wins better in overall standings.

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I can see this rule being binding if we're actually in the same conference, but they're really in the MWC, have losses to OSU and New Mexico, and barely beat SDSU...

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Yeah…well….thems still the rules

"The bowl games will continue to deploy the "agreed upon selection process among current and former Pac-12 football teams," according to the conference.

The bowls are expected to take steps to avoid rematches of conference games, if possible."

philly1121 said:

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I doubt Indpendence Bowl will want us again. We aren't going to Armed Forces Bowl because we would have just played in Dallas. It's LA or nothing. And if it's LA and during finals week, the team would be hard pressed to be hyped for any game. See 2023 Indy Bowl results.

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It won't be "nothing." A 6-win power conference team is not getting left out of a bowl game if they want to play in one. We'd be playing somewhere.

MilleniaBear said:

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Sporting News has us in Holiday against Texas Tech. I can only imagine its cause of ticket sales - i think we did well in our two trips to the Holiday Bowl. They pick after Alamo Bowl right?

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Imagine if we see Texas Tech so often in post season that it becomes a rivalry

DoubtfulBear said:

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MilleniaBear said:

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Sporting News has us in Holiday against Texas Tech. I can only imagine its cause of ticket sales - i think we did well in our two trips to the Holiday Bowl. They pick after Alamo Bowl right?

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Imagine if we see Texas Tech so often in post season that it becomes a rivalry

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I would think with our improved secondary and an experienced Mendoza we would do better this time around, would hope to get these guys eventually

Strykur said:

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DoubtfulBear said:

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MilleniaBear said:

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Sporting News has us in Holiday against Texas Tech. I can only imagine its cause of ticket sales - i think we did well in our two trips to the Holiday Bowl. They pick after Alamo Bowl right?

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Imagine if we see Texas Tech so often in post season that it becomes a rivalry

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I would think with our improved secondary and an experienced Mendoza we would do better this time around, would hope to get these guys eventually

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We need a new OL that can pass protect to get Mendoza time to pass. It'd also be nice if we had a OL that could open up holes for Jaydn and Jet to attack.

sycasey said:

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philly1121 said:

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I doubt Indpendence Bowl will want us again. We aren't going to Armed Forces Bowl because we would have just played in Dallas. It's LA or nothing. And if it's LA and during finals week, the team would be hard pressed to be hyped for any game. See 2023 Indy Bowl results.

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It won't be "nothing." A 6-win power conference team is not getting left out of a bowl game if they want to play in one. We'd be playing somewhere.

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By nothing I mean, the choices would be mid to bad. Indy doesn't want us again. Armed Forces would say "well, we just saw Cal in the Metroplex 27 days ago. And we'd be asking supporters to travel to Dallas twice? College Football Network and Sports Illustrated have us going to LA.

What does 7-5 get us? (asking for a friend)