https://www.si.com/college/cal/football/the-one-that-got-away-fernando-mendoza-projected-as-a-1st-round-pick-01jt3xy9z2c8

I'll bet anyone, any amount of money that "Nando " does not get drafted in the first round. The "experts" did not watch much Cal football. He will never start an NFL game - book it.

MathTeacherMike said:

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https://www.si.com/college/cal/football/the-one-that-got-away-fernando-mendoza-projected-as-a-1st-round-pick-01jt3xy9z2c8

I'll bet anyone, any amount of money that "Nando " does not get drafted in the first round. The "experts" did not watch much Cal football. He will never start an NFL game - book it.

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Not a chance this scenario plays out. LOL - 16th pick.

MathTeacherMike said:

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https://www.si.com/college/cal/football/the-one-that-got-away-fernando-mendoza-projected-as-a-1st-round-pick-01jt3xy9z2c8

I'll bet anyone, any amount of money that "Nando " does not get drafted in the first round. The "experts" did not watch much Cal football. He will never start an NFL game - book it.

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to be fair, our Oline was so horrible last year it would be difficult to properly evaluate any QB. I have serious doubts he goes in the first round, but if he does well at Indiana and its another weak class, I could see him being a day two pick. He lacks the mobility to be a first rounder in today's NFL imo. At the same time, a lot of winning programs in the SEC manage 9 and 10 win seasons with much more limited QBs than Mendoza. Some can barely throw the ball or would fall apart under the kind of pressure we gave up. Many are inaccurate. Dillon Gabriel couldn't even see over the linemen in the Rose Bowl, and he went higher than a lot of people expected. Cam Ward was the #1 pick and he held onto the ball for way too long, and was afforded that luxury with how elite Miami's Oline was. That's not going to translate to the NFL, but he was still worth the gamble.

A lot of teams badly need a QB in the NFL currently, and there's only so many blue chip prospects in each class.
Scouts know our QBs tend to have better processing speed than most SEC or B1G kids, because they have to play behind such a garbage Oline.

maybe, maybe not. not worth speculating about a former player.

JKS in the first round in, oh, 2027 sounds like a great prediction though

I think he has good pocket awareness (Had to lol), poor arm strength and is hot and cold on his reads with decent mobility. He's the typical mid to late round QB if he improves his reads.

He did beat out two, count 'em, two big time recruits, who were paid, that the board was fantasizing about. No easy task.

75bear said:

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BearGoggles said:

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I don't know how you can judge any QBs potential behind an OL as bad as Cal's last year. Mendoza has the ability to deliver the ball under pressure (keeps his eyes down field) and plenty of arm strength. He seems to read the field pretty well.

He didn't show enough to be a first round pick, but I wouldn't be shocked if he develops into one. Cignetti is a very good coach of qbs.

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The NFL had no problem judging Jared Goff behind a bad Cal OL.

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Yeah, I actually have a theory about college QBs. If they play well with a bad OL and receivers who are not always wide open, they can play in the NFL (e.g. Goff). If they have all day to throw and are playing catch with wide open receivers, you really have no idea (e.g. Leinart).

If I was an NFL GM, I would be very reluctant to draft a QB from a blue blood.

75bear said:

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BearGoggles said:

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I don't know how you can judge any QBs potential behind an OL as bad as Cal's last year. Mendoza has the ability to deliver the ball under pressure (keeps his eyes down field) and plenty of arm strength. He seems to read the field pretty well.

He didn't show enough to be a first round pick, but I wouldn't be shocked if he develops into one. Cignetti is a very good coach of qbs.

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The NFL had no problem judging Jared Goff behind a bad Cal OL.

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Goff broke all the Cal and PAC-12 passing records. He was the leading passer from a Power Conference, just ahead of Patrick Mahomes at Texas Tech, also playing in an Air Raid offense (and "poor" OL play)., How tough is that to evaluate?

ac_green33 said:

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I think there is a lot of research out there about sack avoidance being a QB stat more than an o-line stat and it's not something that is "teachable", and Mendoza cannot see or deal with pressure very well even when telegraphed.

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Mendoza is tall, lanky and the opposite of agile. He has an over the top delivery and can throw with good velocity when he can step into a throw. His best throw is a 30 foot or even 40 foot laser between the hashes. He is not so good on short, touch or timing routes and for some reason most of our long passes were sideline routes requiring loft and timing instead of post patterns deep over the middle of the field which would have been in his wheelhouse. He was very inaccurate in swing passes (due to his throwing motion) but improved somewhat in year two.

He was very poor at escaping the rush and extending plays. He is not agile. He cannot throw off balance (see Aaron Rodgers). However, if a hole opens up he has good speed once he gets going (long strider).

It will be interesting to see how he develops over the next two years.

I'm happy we have Sagapolutele, I think he has much better upside and I am happy he is competing with Brown for the starting role rather than Mendoza as I think too many Cal fans were not objective about him (though he WAS the star of our offense last year).

BearSD said:

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calumnus said:

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75bear said:

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BearGoggles said:

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I don't know how you can judge any QBs potential behind an OL as bad as Cal's last year. Mendoza has the ability to deliver the ball under pressure (keeps his eyes down field) and plenty of arm strength. He seems to read the field pretty well.

He didn't show enough to be a first round pick, but I wouldn't be shocked if he develops into one. Cignetti is a very good coach of qbs.

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The NFL had no problem judging Jared Goff behind a bad Cal OL.

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Goff broke all the Cal and PAC-12 passing records. He was the leading passer from a Power Conference, just ahead of Patrick Mahomes at Texas Tech, also playing in an Air Raid offense (and "poor" OL play)., How tough is that to evaluate?

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Exactly. Goff's last two seasons at Cal, combined: 78 TDs, only 20 INTs, 8692 passing yards, 63% completion percentage. https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/jared-goff-1.html

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Of course Goff benefitted from playing in Dykes' "Drop 50", '50-passes-per-game' offense.

Pittstop said:

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BearSD said:

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calumnus said:

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75bear said:

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BearGoggles said:

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I don't know how you can judge any QBs potential behind an OL as bad as Cal's last year. Mendoza has the ability to deliver the ball under pressure (keeps his eyes down field) and plenty of arm strength. He seems to read the field pretty well.

He didn't show enough to be a first round pick, but I wouldn't be shocked if he develops into one. Cignetti is a very good coach of qbs.

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The NFL had no problem judging Jared Goff behind a bad Cal OL.

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Goff broke all the Cal and PAC-12 passing records. He was the leading passer from a Power Conference, just ahead of Patrick Mahomes at Texas Tech, also playing in an Air Raid offense (and "poor" OL play)., How tough is that to evaluate?

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Exactly. Goff's last two seasons at Cal, combined: 78 TDs, only 20 INTs, 8692 passing yards, 63% completion percentage. https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/jared-goff-1.html

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Of course Goff benefitted from playing in Dykes' "Drop 50", '50-passes-per-game' offense.

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It wasn't just volume, he had a great completion percentage, a great TD to Int ratio and a great passing rating,

calumnus said:

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Pittstop said:

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BearSD said:

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calumnus said:

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75bear said:

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BearGoggles said:

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I don't know how you can judge any QBs potential behind an OL as bad as Cal's last year. Mendoza has the ability to deliver the ball under pressure (keeps his eyes down field) and plenty of arm strength. He seems to read the field pretty well.

He didn't show enough to be a first round pick, but I wouldn't be shocked if he develops into one. Cignetti is a very good coach of qbs.

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The NFL had no problem judging Jared Goff behind a bad Cal OL.

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Goff broke all the Cal and PAC-12 passing records. He was the leading passer from a Power Conference, just ahead of Patrick Mahomes at Texas Tech, also playing in an Air Raid offense (and "poor" OL play)., How tough is that to evaluate?

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Exactly. Goff's last two seasons at Cal, combined: 78 TDs, only 20 INTs, 8692 passing yards, 63% completion percentage. https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/jared-goff-1.html

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Of course Goff benefitted from playing in Dykes' "Drop 50", '50-passes-per-game' offense.

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It wasn't just volume, he had a great completion percentage, a great TD to Int ratio and a great passing rating,

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Fernando Soph completion percentage: 68.7%
Goff Soph completion percentage: 62.1%
Goff Jr completion percentage: 64.5%

Fernando Soph Passing Rating: 144.6
Goff Soph Passing Rating: 147.6
Goff Jr Passing Rating: 161.3

Fernando Soph Int %: 1.6
Goff Soph Int%: 1.4
Goff Jr Int %: 2.5

Fernando Soph TD%: 5.8
Goff Soph TD %: 6.9
Goff Jr TD%: 8.1

Fernando Soph Yards per attempt: 7.8
Goff Soph Yards per attempt: 7.8
Goff Jr Yards per attempt: 8.9

Hard to argue it wasn't volume. Their soph stats are extremely comparable. Mendoza's completion percentage is higher. Goff's TD percentage is higher. Frankly, both of those are explained by the offenses they play in. Goff's junior stats are better but not so much better that you can't envision Mendoza making the same jump. Goff also had better personnel his soph year than Mendoza and better offensive play calling, and way better personnel his junior year and better offensive play calling (though IMO, not as good as the year before). Mendoza is likely to have a bigger jump in offensive personnel and coaching between soph and junior years than Goff had.

Goff had the benefit of coming out in a year that was perceived as weak for QB's, and frankly went way too high. He spent 6-7 years being mid at best. He has developed a lot over his NFL career and in year 9 has become very good.

A lot of QB's have stat lines like both Goff and Mendoza their soph years and don't go on to be 1st round picks, so the odds are that Mendoza won't be a first round pick. (and the odds were against Goff at that point as well).

But it is hard to look at their individual sophomore performances and their stats that aren't colored by volume and not wonder if, yes, your view is colored by 1. volume; and 2. one team identity that was massively skewed toward offense vs. one team that doesn't have much identity and certainly not much of one on offense.

Mendoza is getting a ton of buzz. I've seen 5 different prognosticators put him in the first round. All of them basically say they saw his tape and were pleasantly surprised and saying he has the tools that translate. Most mention that his box score isn't eye popping. I don't know if these guys are right, but I know they are better than I am at breaking down film. Basically, he is getting more pub because he is going to a good team in the Big Ten, people are watching film and are impressed. The biggest lesson to learn from this is that whether you like the way he did it, he almost certainly made the right decision for his career and it is paying dividends before he has played a down at Indiana. I'd submit that while we watch most players of value on offense leave, our focus should be on how we become a team that offers better potential career success. Especially given the one negative effect of the way he left ultimately righted itself, so he basically hasn't hurt Cal at all.

Not to mention that if Mendoza was at Cal this year, this thread would be talking about how awesome he is and how deserving he is of the praise he is getting.

BearlyCareAnymore said:

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calumnus said:

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Pittstop said:

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BearSD said:

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calumnus said:

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75bear said:

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BearGoggles said:

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I don't know how you can judge any QBs potential behind an OL as bad as Cal's last year. Mendoza has the ability to deliver the ball under pressure (keeps his eyes down field) and plenty of arm strength. He seems to read the field pretty well.

He didn't show enough to be a first round pick, but I wouldn't be shocked if he develops into one. Cignetti is a very good coach of qbs.

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The NFL had no problem judging Jared Goff behind a bad Cal OL.

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Goff broke all the Cal and PAC-12 passing records. He was the leading passer from a Power Conference, just ahead of Patrick Mahomes at Texas Tech, also playing in an Air Raid offense (and "poor" OL play)., How tough is that to evaluate?

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Exactly. Goff's last two seasons at Cal, combined: 78 TDs, only 20 INTs, 8692 passing yards, 63% completion percentage. https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/jared-goff-1.html

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Of course Goff benefitted from playing in Dykes' "Drop 50", '50-passes-per-game' offense.

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It wasn't just volume, he had a great completion percentage, a great TD to Int ratio and a great passing rating,

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Fernando Soph completion percentage: 68.7%
Goff Soph completion percentage: 62.1%
Goff Jr completion percentage: 64.5%

Fernando Soph Passing Rating: 144.6
Goff Soph Passing Rating: 147.6
Goff Jr Passing Rating: 161.3

Fernando Soph Int %: 1.6
Goff Soph Int%: 1.4
Goff Jr Int %: 2.5

Fernando Soph TD%: 5.8
Goff Soph TD %: 6.9
Goff Jr TD%: 8.1

Fernando Soph Yards per attempt: 7.8
Goff Soph Yards per attempt: 7.8
Goff Jr Yards per attempt: 8.9

Hard to argue it wasn't volume. Their soph stats are extremely comparable. Mendoza's completion percentage is higher. Goff's TD percentage is higher. Frankly, both of those are explained by the offenses they play in. Goff's junior stats are better but not so much better that you can't envision Mendoza making the same jump. Goff also had better personnel his soph year than Mendoza and better offensive play calling, and way better personnel his junior year and better offensive play calling (though IMO, not as good as the year before). Mendoza is likely to have a bigger jump in offensive personnel and coaching between soph and junior years than Goff had.

Goff had the benefit of coming out in a year that was perceived as weak for QB's, and frankly went way too high. He spent 6-7 years being mid at best. He has developed a lot over his NFL career and in year 9 has become very good.

A lot of QB's have stat lines like both Goff and Mendoza their soph years and don't go on to be 1st round picks, so the odds are that Mendoza won't be a first round pick. (and the odds were against Goff at that point as well).

But it is hard to look at their individual sophomore performances and their stats that aren't colored by volume and not wonder if, yes, your view is colored by 1. volume; and 2. one team identity that was massively skewed toward offense vs. one team that doesn't have much identity and certainly not much of one on offense.

Mendoza is getting a ton of buzz. I've seen 5 different prognosticators put him in the first round. All of them basically say they saw his tape and were pleasantly surprised and saying he has the tools that translate. Most mention that his box score isn't eye popping. I don't know if these guys are right, but I know they are better than I am at breaking down film. Basically, he is getting more pub because he is going to a good team in the Big Ten, people are watching film and are impressed. The biggest lesson to learn from this is that whether you like the way he did it, he almost certainly made the right decision for his career and it is paying dividends before he has played a down at Indiana. I'd submit that while we watch most players of value on offense leave, our focus should be on how we become a team that offers better potential career success. Especially given the one negative effect of the way he left ultimately righted itself, so he basically hasn't hurt Cal at all.

Not to mention that if Mendoza was at Cal this year, this thread would be talking about how awesome he is and how deserving he is of the praise he is getting.

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This is the key line in your post IMO. Mendoza is an NFL prospect. He has work to do no doubt. But has nice arm talent, size and improved his mobility quite a bit. Needs to improve on pocket presence and get rid of the ball quicker.

But he is gone. He left in a manner that was not gracious. And like many others I have not forgotten how he left. I wish him no injury ill will, but I would not be heartbroken if he falls flat at Indiana.

As we all know pre-season mock drafts looking a year into the future are notoriously accurate. They totally nailed it last year with Carson Beck, Shedeur Sanders and Quinn Ewers being top 20 picks.

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-way-too-early-2025-nfl-mock-draft-james-pearce-jr-panthers

BearlyCareAnymore said:

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Big C said:

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Those are valid points, to be sure. It's complicated. Did Goff's receivers get open because they were better? Or was it the scheme? Or maybe Mendoza's receivers weren't as open because he was staring at them as they ran their routes.

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Goff had receivers who were highly rated out of high school and who made NFL rosters. I think it is pretty clear he had better receivers to throw to and lots of them.

Also, Goff had negative rushing yards every year and Mendoza so far has positive rushing yards every year, so the stats aren't really bearing out that Mendoza has more mobility issues than Goff had.

We are comparing a guy who is 10 years into the NFL with a guy who is two years into his college career. Goff was an absolute disaster his fresh man year and Mendoza's freshman year was much better - though I agree he is helped by the redshirt. Their sophomore years were very comparable.

I had concerns about Mendoza's penchant for turning the ball over as a freshman but he cleaned that up. I've seen enough really good college QB's not get a sniff in the pros to leave it to the experts whether they translate, but a lot of experts are getting on the Mendoza train. I think it is pretty clear the real reason why some here are questioning it.

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Just to add my two cents about Goff's Performance as a Freshman. Memories on this Board are sometimes very short. Goff's Freshman year was marked by a decimation of the Cal Football roster. Sonny Dykes was ordered by the AD to clean house of all players who could not cut it academically at Cal. He did that pretty much in his first year as Head Coach

Posters on this Board were almost universally bemoaning the mass exodus of Cal's better players.
Goff had a very young and inexperienced team around him in most of the skill positions. Some eventually turned out to be good players because Sonny could spot Offensive talent. [not so good spotting Defensive talent]

But that doesn't change the fact that Goff had a lot of young and raw players around him. [in the days before the Portal]