mbBear said:An interesting point now is a guy like Totten would get NIL money after 2 years, and have the chance on the bigger stage.BearlyCareAnymore said:I think you guys are missing GMP's point. It isn't small school vs. big school or blue bloods vs. losing programs. Matt Leinart was his example. He had a dominating offensive line and pretty much all-american level players up and down the offense. He might have been the 11th best player in his offense. He was a solid QB, but all he needed to do was within about 10 seconds of the snap select one of 5 great playmakers to get the ball to with no pressure whatsoever and let that guy make a bunch of yards. Frankly, it was quite obvious when he and Rodgers were on the same field that Rodgers was making plays and Leinart was getting the ball to others to make plays. Very good college QB, but not a pro.mbBear said:Probably should have been clearer about what I was thinking about:...I'm thinking more of P4 not just "traditional powerhouses," sorry about that.ac_green33 said:Lol you just picked one bad and not particularly representative example after saying he chose an exception to the rule.mbBear said:I think the best GM's are the ones that are constantly reinventing their thinking, and/or are using the incredible resources they have to make every judgment a case by case situation. If it sounds like I just described the more recent version of Howie Roseman of the Eagles (meaning post Chip Kelly with the Eagles), that's no coincidence.GMP said:DoubtfulBear said:That's like saying if I was a hiring manager, I would rather pick someone from San Jose State than Stanford, because they have the grit and chip on their shoulder and didn't get coddled on their way to a degree.GMP said:75bear said:The NFL had no problem judging Jared Goff behind a bad Cal OL.BearGoggles said:
I don't know how you can judge any QBs potential behind an OL as bad as Cal's last year. Mendoza has the ability to deliver the ball under pressure (keeps his eyes down field) and plenty of arm strength. He seems to read the field pretty well.
He didn't show enough to be a first round pick, but I wouldn't be shocked if he develops into one. Cignetti is a very good coach of qbs.
Yeah, I actually have a theory about college QBs. If they play well with a bad OL and receivers who are not always wide open, they can play in the NFL (e.g. Goff). If they have all day to throw and are playing catch with wide open receivers, you really have no idea (e.g. Leinart).
If I was an NFL GM, I would be very reluctant to draft a QB from a blue blood.
There will always be outliers like Goff or Josh Allen, but by and large blue blood QBs are a proven quantity to have even gotten the starting job at a top school in the first place.
It's not the same thing at all.
And because I am not an NFL GM, I would say I have the reverse prejudice of what you posted (which, by the way, I thought was interesting, and made sense): I would be hesitant of not drafting the Blue Blood QB, because they haven't been through all the same off the field X factors...my case study is Carson Wentz, and that Josh Allen is the exception....
The NFL has starting (and some in competitions) QBs from:close to half the NFL starting QBs are from non "blue bloods"
- Louisville x2
- Wyoming
- Delaware/Pittsburgh
- Duke
- Texas Tech
- West Virginia
- UNC
- Oklahoma St
- Iowa St
- Miss St
- BYU
- Incarnate Word/Wazzu/Miami
- Cal
Yes, even Cal/Goff and that "big time" experience, on and off the field, makes a difference, my 2 cents.
But again, like I said, having some bias going in is proof that I am not an NFL GM....
For a small school example, the guy who maybe had the best college career ever is Willie Totten. He threw for 5000 yards in a season when no one had ever done that. He held well over a dozen national records. He led the nation in passing efficiency twice. He was a very good QB who also happened to be throwing to the greatest WR of all time who was running routes against the likes of Prairie View A&M.
The same thing was consistently true back in the day with Nebraska and Oklahoma RB's. They both had offensive lines that were completely dominant over their competition and just basically put a fast guy behind them and let them run.
Both the 49ers and the Raiders had eras where they massively got over other teams on the trade market because 90% of their team was so good it made the crappy 10% look good. They knew who the 10% were and could trade them at an inflated value.
Point is that in a team sport, success on the field can be an illusion when judging an individual and you need to adjust for someone like Leinart - who had it easy his whole career - and Goff who out of necessity had to learn to make his reads lightning fast and get the ball out. It's not a universal rule, but it is something to watch for. If nothing else, you knew that Goff could adjust to the quicker game in the NFL, and you didn't know that for Leinart.
Figuring out the "illusion" and "adjusting for someone like Leinart" is why the best GMs aren't necessarily those on fan message boards, no matter what they claim to be...
Weird choice to make that point with Leinart, who was drafted high and was a total bust. Meanwhile, 24 year old me knew he was going to be a bust and probably said so ad nauseum on this very message board (or, more accurately, on a predecessor to this very message board).
Who would have a made a better GM - the Cardinals GM or me? Idk, but I certainly wouldn't have made the Leinart mistake.

