Bearly Clad said:
I mean let's be honest: preseason power rankings are meaningless. The B12 cancelled theirs moving forward because the conference media predictions would have been 80% accurate if you flipped them upside down (last to first and first to last, etc.)
Still being honest: why should anyone give us the benefit of the doubt? We missed out on a 10-win season last year by like 10 total points but that points to a coaching issue that many of us have felt intensely. We don't have a good track record of recent success. We also lost a lot of key pieces; sure we replaced them, but from an outsider's perspective it's fair to say that we have a higher ceiling than most anticipate with our soft schedule but that until we prove it on the field that expectations should remain low.
Summation: I don't enjoy it but I think it's entirely fair that we are rated low going into this season
These polls and predictions are fun but almost meaningless given the current landscape of the sport. NIL, Transfer portal, random eligibility increases etc. Last season the Big 12 pre season poll had Utah picked 1st. Oklahoma St picked 3rd. Arizona 5th. Iowa St 6th. BYU picked 13th and ASU 16th (last) .
Well ASU won the conference and went to the CFP. They played Iowa St who was picked 6th. BYU and Colorado (preseason 11th). All were tied at 7-2 but ASU and Iowa St won tie breakers to get to the Big 12 championship game.
Utah and Arizona both stunk. They finished 2-7 in conference and neither made a bowl. Oklahoma St was dreadful. They went winless in conference and dead last. The picks were so bad the media is not even doing pre season polling in the Big 12 for 2025. At least the Big 12 media isn't picking at their media days which start soon.
The ACC was better but they were dead wrong on FSU. FSU picked 1st but finsihed last. The only thing keeping them from going winless was of course the awful Cal loss to FSU in a game where Cal won nearly every stat but somehow lost. Sacks, missed kicks and a huge miss by Mendoza with Grizzel open for TD late cost the Bears.
They had NC State as 4th. They finsihed 3-5 and should have been 2-6 but for a 28 yd FG miss by the Bears late in the game. SMU was picked 7th but finished 1st at 8-0 but lost to Clemson in the ACC championship game. They still made the CFP and finished 11-3 overall.
Syracuse was picked 12th but had a nice season. They went 5-3 in conference but had a 10 win season by going unbeaten in OOC and won their bowl.
These pundits were wrong a lot last season. And some of the misses were huge. FSU, Utah, Okie St., Arizona in particular were given way too much credit for the previous seasons. All had very bad seasons. ASU, BYU SMU and Syracuse were big misses the other direction.
I understand why they picked these programs where they did. But the usual metrics are no longer the predictors they used to be. Injuries, QB play and unbalanced schedules make it so much harder to predict.
I am not saying Cal will pull an ASU but I think these predictions now have to be taken with a huge boulder of salt. The usual metrics are no longer as useful and the unbalanced schedules make predicting so much harder.
Cal has had huge personnel turnover. A ton of new coaches including the OC, DC and S&C. And they still have Justin Wilcox at HC. So while I can be persuaded to believe Cal will suprise folks, I see too many ifs that have to happen. If the new staff is better. If the OL comes around. If the QB play is good enough. If the defense can replace the entire secondary and other key losses. If they can stay relatively healthy (New S&C) If all the skill position losses are replaced with at least decent performance. If they can make a FG when the game is on the line. If most of these ifs go right the team has a chance for a good season.
But that is a lot of ifs. Too many for me.
