3 wins or 10

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Oakbear
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6:33p, 8/4/25
With all the new hires (coaches and players) and unknowns this has to be one of the hardest years to predict that i can remember

With JW, maybe the safest thing us to plan for mediocrity and hope for a pleasant surprise
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concernedparent
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6:46p, 8/4/25
Justin Wilcox might be one of the easiest college coaches to predict year to year even with roster and staff turnover. He's a thoroughly mediocre coach (not a bad one, a mediocre one) with a reasonable floor and zero ceiling. He runs a clean program with poor high school recruiting, reasonable talent evaluation (besides at OLine), average player development, technically sound and disciplined defenses, generally bad offenses, with suspect game day management; all good for 4 to 7 wins every year. He has a system in place and is adept at plugging and playing pieces to keep it going.
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prospeCt
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8:08p, 8/4/25
"Give to Cal Legends! https://calegends.com/donation/ Do it ", if so inclined, & beneficent 🙏🏼
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Golden One
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In reply to concernedparent • 2:42a, 8/5/25
concernedparent said:
Justin Wilcox might be one of the easiest college coaches to predict year to year even with roster and staff turnover. He's a thoroughly mediocre coach (not a bad one, a mediocre one) with a reasonable floor and zero ceiling. He runs a clean program with poor high school recruiting, reasonable talent evaluation (besides at OLine), average player development, technically sound and disciplined defenses, generally bad offenses, with suspect game day management; all good for 4 to 7 wins every year. He has a system in place and is adept at plugging and playing pieces to keep it going.

Mediocre would be 6 to 8 wins each year. 4 to 7 wins without even coming close to a winning conference record in 8 years is just plain bad. Wilcox is a bad coach, and it's hard to believe that we've been stuck with him for 9 years.
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SmellinRoses
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In reply to Golden One • 7:56a, 8/5/25
The man is impossibly dull and his conference record reflects that. His coaching contract is the worst in the history of sport.

The theme for this and every season is now - "Who are these guys?"
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JeffCalFan
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8:05a, 8/5/25
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Bearly Clad
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In reply to concernedparent • 10:04a, 8/5/25
I think you mean "clearly defined ceiling." "Zero ceiling" would imply that there's no upward limitation on the team under Wilcox
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MinotStateBeav
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In reply to Golden One • 10:24a, 8/5/25
Golden One said:
concernedparent said:
Justin Wilcox might be one of the easiest college coaches to predict year to year even with roster and staff turnover. He's a thoroughly mediocre coach (not a bad one, a mediocre one) with a reasonable floor and zero ceiling. He runs a clean program with poor high school recruiting, reasonable talent evaluation (besides at OLine), average player development, technically sound and disciplined defenses, generally bad offenses, with suspect game day management; all good for 4 to 7 wins every year. He has a system in place and is adept at plugging and playing pieces to keep it going.

Mediocre would be 6 to 8 wins each year. 4 to 7 wins without even coming close to a winning conference record in 8 years is just plain bad. Wilcox is a bad coach, and it's hard to believe that we've been stuck with him for 9 years.

I don't think he's a bad coach, I think he has the right technical ideas on how to win, but he really really struggles with recruiting the offensive line he needs to actually make it happen. I think their idea was to build the team around defense which makes sense, but in that case you need to be able to ground and pound the ball otherwise you have too many 3 and outs and your defense gets gassed (See the Miami game). The reverse of that is dykes who slung the ball around and used no time on the clock and gassed his own defense. In either case we had bad offensive lines.
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sycasey
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2:24p, 8/6/25
With Wilcox, the smart money is on 5 or 6 wins.
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KoreAmBear
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In reply to Oakbear • 2:26p, 8/6/25
Without Googling it, guess how many 10 win seasons we have ever had at Cal football? And name them.

I'll give you a hint, the digits on your fingers (if you have the full set of digits) on one hand may cover it.
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calumnus
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In reply to sycasey • 2:32p, 8/6/25
sycasey said:
With Wilcox, the smart money is on 5 or 6 wins.

With three OOC wins against FCS and G6, and one disappointing game against a mediocre P4 opponent. Followed by a dismal conference record (even with a cupcake ACC schedule). Including an annual loss to an otherwise no-win team.
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Bobodeluxe
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3:06p, 8/6/25
Bobodeluxe
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3:06p, 8/6/25
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BearGreg
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In reply to KoreAmBear • 3:35p, 8/6/25
Staff
KoreAmBear said:
Without Googling it, guess how many 10 win seasons we have ever had at Cal football? And name them.

I'll give you a hint, the digits on your fingers (if you have the full set of digits) on one hand may cover it.

FYI - College Football teams went from 10 or less games a year in total to 11 in 1970 and then expanded to 12 games in 2006
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KoreAmBear
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In reply to BearGreg • 5:02p, 8/6/25
BearGreg said:
KoreAmBear said:
Without Googling it, guess how many 10 win seasons we have ever had at Cal football? And name them.

I'll give you a hint, the digits on your fingers (if you have the full set of digits) on one hand may cover it.

FYI - College Football teams went from 10 or less games a year in total to 11 in 1970 and then expanded to 12 games in 2006

That's why Pappy winning 10 games in 48 and 49 was amazing.
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calumnus
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In reply to BearGreg • 6:27p, 8/6/25
BearGreg said:
KoreAmBear said:
Without Googling it, guess how many 10 win seasons we have ever had at Cal football? And name them.

I'll give you a hint, the digits on your fingers (if you have the full set of digits) on one hand may cover it.

FYI - College Football teams went from 10 or less games a year in total to 11 in 1970 and then expanded to 12 games in 2006

Plus the huge expansion of bowl games (a 13th game) and the inclusion of an annual FCS opponent for an automatic win. Also, games used to potentially end in ties, robbing you of a 50-50 chance of another "win" in overtime. While we have only had 10 wins 7 times, "10 wins" now essentially equates to "3 or less losses," which Cal had done 30 times (excluding 2020 when we only played 4 games).

For example in 1975 under Mike White we went 8-3, missed the Rose Bowl and so didn't play in a bowl game. Add an FCS sure win and we are 9-3 and in today's world are in a bowl game with a great chance for a tenth win. Similarly the year before, 1974, when we went 7-4-1 (tied #6 USC at the LA Coliseum) , beat #14 Illinois in Illinois but lost17-21 to eventual #15 Sugar Bowl bound Florida team in the opener in Gainesville. Can you imagine us scheduling two OOC road games against the B1G and SEC today?

Even Kapp's 7-4 1982 team, considered an underdog to Elway and Stanford who had a bowl on the line, could have won 9 with an FCS team added to the OOC and a bowl game after "The Play."

Winning 10 now for Cal in the ACC is not that difficult. SMU won 11 after transitioning from G5, Miami and Syracuse both won 10 and were not that good, we should have beat Miami, played Syracuse close, and if we had not choked 4 previous ACC games that we had leads, we would have had a loud, packed stadium instead of quiet for the last place team, things might have been very different.

Basically, according to Sagarin, we should have won 11 last year if we only played like the #50 team instead of the #68 team and that assumes a loss to Miami who we had on the ropes (though we probably play someone better than UNLV in our bowl).

This year should be similar, though a little tougher. 7 wins for a mediocre team.
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Bobodeluxe
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7:07p, 8/6/25
"3 or fewer losses"
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bearsandgiants
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9:03p, 8/6/25
We could start 6-0 and still not be very good.
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Big C
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10:08p, 8/6/25

a better question might be 5 wins or 8?
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calumnus
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In reply to bearsandgiants • 11:17p, 8/6/25
bearsandgiants said:
We could start 6-0 and still not be very good.

It would be a great sign though. In particular beating Minnesota at home, BC on the road and Duke at home would indicate we are at least not bad. Because, other than Texas Southern, all the other 5 games are loseable to a bad Cal team. That is the fear. There is no other game on the schedule that is a sure thing, even Stanford, who we were losing to 21-7 near the end of the 3rd quarter playing at CMS.

The opener at Oregon State in three weeks will tell us a lot.
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HearstMining
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1:27a, 8/7/25
Winston Churchill's quote is very apt concerning this team: "It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma".
  • There's no part of the team I can point at and say, "Yeah, this group will get us through the rough spots". Last year, it was the linebackers (Buchanan and Uluave) and Endries/Mendoza, and that really wasn't enough.
  • Cal doesn't get ready-made great players in the portal, we get guys who started at smaller schools and guys from bigger schools who didn't play much.
  • What happens if/when the team goes on it's usual 3 or 4 game losing streak? Were spring and fall practice enough time to build chemistry among players as well as with coaches to get through that? I remember the implosion during Holmoe's final season.
Too many variables for me - I think the coin will come up heads as many times as tails and that means a 6-6 record. Ron has the keys, but they may be to an AMC Pacer.
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Golden One
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In reply to BearGreg • 5:49a, 8/7/25
BearGreg said:
KoreAmBear said:
Without Googling it, guess how many 10 win seasons we have ever had at Cal football? And name them.

I'll give you a hint, the digits on your fingers (if you have the full set of digits) on one hand may cover it.

FYI - College Football teams went from 10 or less games a year in total to 11 in 1970 and then expanded to 12 games in 2006

So we've had 54 years with a chance to win 10 games.
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Golden One
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In reply to HearstMining • 5:51a, 8/7/25
HearstMining said:
Winston Churchill's quote is very apt concerning this team: "It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma".
  • There's no part of the team I can point at and say, "Yeah, this group will get us through the rough spots". Last year, it was the linebackers (Buchanan and Uluave) and Endries/Mendoza, and that really wasn't enough.
  • Cal doesn't get ready-made great players in the portal, we get guys who started at smaller schools and guys from bigger schools who didn't play much.
  • What happens if/when the team goes on it's usual 3 or 4 game losing streak? Were spring and fall practice enough time to build chemistry among players as well as with coaches to get through that? I remember the implosion during Holmoe's final season.
Too many variables for me - I think the coin will come up heads as many times as tails and that means a 6-6 record. Ron has the keys, but they may be to an AMC Pacer.

More likely an Edsel.
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Ccajon2
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In reply to KoreAmBear • 10:55a, 8/7/25
KoreAmBear said:
Without Googling it, guess how many 10 win seasons we have ever had at Cal football? And name them.

I'll give you a hint, the digits on your fingers (if you have the full set of digits) on one hand may cover it.


Since 1960-Two. The year we whipped Clemson in the Gator bowl. And the year that knee pad Brown sucd Rose bowl dick and got the bid ahead of us.
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BearlyCareAnymore
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In reply to Ccajon2 • 11:52a, 8/7/25
Ccajon2 said:
KoreAmBear said:
Without Googling it, guess how many 10 win seasons we have ever had at Cal football? And name them.

I'll give you a hint, the digits on your fingers (if you have the full set of digits) on one hand may cover it.


Since 1960-Two. The year we whipped Clemson in the Gator bowl. And the year that knee pad Brown sucd Rose bowl dick and got the bid ahead of us.

3. You forgot 2006 where we were also conference co-champions.
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Big C
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In reply to Ccajon2 • 12:50p, 8/7/25
Ccajon2 said:
KoreAmBear said:
Without Googling it, guess how many 10 win seasons we have ever had at Cal football? And name them.

I'll give you a hint, the digits on your fingers (if you have the full set of digits) on one hand may cover it.


Since 1960-Two. The year we whipped Clemson in the Gator bowl. And the year that knee pad Brown sucd Rose bowl dick and got the bid ahead of us.


Citrus Bowl, but point well taken.
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ducktilldeath
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9:21p, 8/7/25
Two winning seasons in 8 years is bad. Zero winning records in conference is bad. Imagine if he weren't 7-0 against FCS programs. They make 1/6 of his total wins at CAL.
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blungld
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10:15a, 8/11/25
A decent, spirited Cal team would turn this into a 10 win season...and I can hope. But with the change of staff and players and Wilcox playing not to lose probably amounts to a missed opportunity and a 6 or 7 win season.
The Bear will not quilt, the Bear will not dye!
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Anarchistbear
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5:50p, 8/11/25
Just divide number of games by 2 and add or subtract one. It works every time
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okaydo
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9:54p, 8/11/25
Fire Wilcox and Rivera!

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