Cal89;842232723 said:
Apologies if a nerve was struck. Not the intent, at least from me, and I'd guess others too.
KA21 is looking to be a star in the NFL alright. His contributions last year were notable and certainly aided Maynard. KA21 caught 61 passes for 737 yards last year. That's about 12.1 yards per reception.
This year, Harper had very comparable numbers: 70 receptions for 852 yards for around 12.2 yards per catch. They both caught a little over 6 balls a game, on average.
One might say that KA21 saved Maynard's butt with a few great catches last year. That's certainly true. I recall several even more miraculous catches this year by Lawler and Harris, aiding Goff's numbers too.
Keenan is not the x factor here. Of note, Treggs too has contributions up there with KA21: 77 catches for 751 yards. Each Harper and Treggs had more catches and yards than KA21 last year. One could argue that having two go to receivers is more desirable than just one... Along those lines, spreading it out, each game we average over 10 guys with receptions. As a QB, that must be a good feeling to have so many receivers that the D thinks might get the next pass... That wasn't the case last year.
Also, with respect to 2012, Harper and Treggs were not not big contributors, combined 62 receptions. That's a little over 2 catches for each a game, on average. KA21 was the man, and opposing D's knew it.
The intent here is not to pile on Goff or any player for that matter. In this discussion, in trying to find positives in this season, something we should not have to look hard for, it was said that we have a good passing game. With the QB being a major component of the passing game, our starter's performance was then germane...
Reasons (stats) were provided showing that our passing game compared to conference foes is not good, and near the bottom. In relation to last year, starting QB's compared, our current starting QB performed a little worse than a guy who is generally despised around here.
With respect to "everyone on here should know that higher volume makes your rate stats go down", I like to know more about that. Seriously, I had not heard that before. If there is a article or study, please direct me. It does not seem commonsensical to me...
Within a game, I've seen it go both ways. Goff started on fire against Stanford. Wow, our best opening drive of the season, I feel. Very impressive. He connected on his first 5 passes, culminating with a TD. He finished with around 52% as I recall... The week before in CO, he started 2 for 5 (40%), and finished with 51%. Within games, I'd imagine that completion rates go either way...
As for the season, I'd be inclined to think that the more passes made leads to improved effectiveness in the passing game, not the opposite. It all equates to increased reps, improving, getting more in sync with receivers, learning from past mistakes, etc...
I find the TFS suspect. I think many of us have concerns about such play calling in the Pac-12. It's mind-numbing at times to watch...
Yes, Goff throws a beautiful fade, one of the best I've ever seen. His deep balls unfortunately have a fade look to them though. The comparison to Maynard is a solid one, as validated by looking at their performance metrics.
While Maynard had some poor games, we remember those, he had some very good ones too. At tOSU, over 70%. UCLA, 83%, 4 TD's, 1 INT. In 2011, his last 3 games were quite good: OSU 68%; Stanford 69%, 173 QBR, 2 TD's, 0 INT's (bettered Luck); ASU 73%, 162 QBR.
Whether it's the inadequacies of the TFS, QB effectiveness, poor coaching, all of these and other factors, our passing game is not good.
Nice response, and well-put. I understand you are not trying to pile on Goff. My perspective is that I just don't want him to be the baby thrown out with Dykes' bathwater.
I phrased my contention on the negative correlation between rate stats and volume with far too much certainty. I really thought I had read things to that effect, but I could not find anything to corroborate it when I looked. It always made sense to me that it would work this way, with the defense putting more emphasis on stopping a given strategy the more often it is used. However, I acknowledge that there could also be a practice effect, as you point out.
I would say in addition to great catches, KA21 was very good at getting open and running after the catch. You point out that Harper and Treggs have comparable stats, but then I could also argue that they benefited from having Goff throwing to them instead of Maynard. This argument would actually be bolstered by their lesser stats of last year. (Or maybe they have become much better with experience.) Spreading the ball around can keep the defense guessing, making it easier to play quarterback, but then isn't it partly the quarterback's job to throw to different receivers? I think most of these arguments can cut both ways.
Taking a step back, the disagreement here is whether there was a small positive in Dykes' favor this season or none at all. Nobody seems to think that Dykes' positives, if any, were anywhere close to his negatives.