Top 5 difficult schedule seems to override any improvement in O and D.

http://www.californiagoldenblogs.com/2015/5/27/8665537/california-golden-bears-vegas-projections-odds-win-totals

SonOfCalVa;842500906 said:

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Top 5 difficult schedule seems to override any improvement in O and D.

http://www.californiagoldenblogs.com/2015/5/27/8665537/california-golden-bears-vegas-projections-odds-win-totals

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I would add (2 out of 3): Texas, ASU, Stanfurd

GivemTheAxe;842500909 said:

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I would add (2 out of 3): Texas, ASU, Stanfurd

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Any win against other than the five mentioned will be against a quality team and "should" (but probably won't) get great publicity.
If the press pattern follows, if Cal wins, it's because the other team was over-rated (or some other excuse).
No problem.

SonOfCalVa;842500910 said:

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Any win against other than the five mentioned will be against a quality team and "should" (but probably won't) get great publicity.
If the press pattern follows, if Cal wins, it's because the other team was over-rated (or some other excuse).
No problem.

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Agree. Any win against a PAC12 team would be interpreted as evidence that the PAC12 is not very strong. But a win against Texas would be harder to ignore.(Fingers crossed).

SonOfCalVa;842500910 said:

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Any win against other than the five mentioned will be against a quality team and "should" (but probably won't) get great publicity.
If the press pattern follows, if Cal wins, it's because the other team was over-rated (or some other excuse).
No problem.

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"Publicity"? Not sure what you are looking for exactly. If they win early, they end up with less 1030et games on the Pac-12 Network...if you want exposure, then just win.
Winning on the road in Austin would be great, but more for the internal momentum of the team, not because Texas is going to be seen as a highly ranked juggernaut...

The main risk is from wear and tear at QB/OL. Most opponents are going to come after Goff and apply pressure, including many teams with solid defensive fronts. If JG does stay healthy through the season though we should win more than 6.

Cal88;842500915 said:

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The main risk is from wear and tear at QB/OL. Most opponents are going to come after Goff and apply pressure, including many teams with solid defensive fronts. If JG does stay healthy through the season though we should win more than 6.

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And if he gets knocked out in the first game ala Longshore we may very well go winless.

pingpong2;842500924 said:

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And if he gets knocked out in the first game ala Longshore we may very well go winless.

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Things just aren't the same since we lost our elite eleven connection.

Assuming Goff is healthy, I make money at this number. I really like this.

I've been cautiously optimistic about the road game against Texas, but I just had a flashback to that road game against Tennessee. Now I need some reassurance.

Vegas saying over and under for Cal is five wins for this season....
My heart says, we are better than that.
My mind says that is about right.
My fear says if JG gets hurt at any point, winning any game after that is very tough.

Five wins would be a disaster. The schedule will be tough every year. Are we only supposed to be content beating teams with a worse record? This year is Dyke's chance to show real progress.

pingpong2;842500924 said:

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And if he gets knocked out in the first game ala Longshore we may very well go winless.

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I think we'll see a lot of Forrest in the first two games, and not because of injury to Goff.
Goff will get sufficient reps but won't need to play the entire games. Forrest will be a ready backup.
He'll be rested and ready for Texass.

last year the line was 2.5. it was explained as this: 4.5 talent but -2 games coaching factor. Vegas doesn't believe in Sonny. This year isn't much different. 7 game talent base, -2 to Sonny. It's on Sonny to prove them wrong again. I hope he does. because the reality is that if Sonny only wins 5 this year, ticket sales will probably slide a bit more. He won't get renewed. and recruiting will suffer. Sonny MUST do enough to make CMS excited

y'all gotta remember we got Goff for probably our last year this year. He's a probable NFL QB. Sonny isn't gonna have a QB this good again for awhile if ever. Sonny NEEDS to do something exciting this year with our golden bears.

Makes sense Vegas doesn't believe in Sonny - he hasn't beaten one good team (finish with winning record) in two seasons. We play a lot of good teams in 2015. Sounds about right.

moonpod;842500947 said:

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last year the line was 2.5. it was explained as this: 4.5 talent but -2 games coaching factor. Vegas doesn't believe in Sonny. This year isn't much different. 7 game talent base, -2 to Sonny. It's on Sonny to prove them wrong again. I hope he does. because the reality is that if Sonny only wins 5 this year, ticket sales will probably slide a bit more. He won't get renewed. and recruiting will suffer. Sonny MUST do enough to make CMS excited

y'all gotta remember we got Goff for probably our last year this year. He's a probable NFL QB. Sonny isn't gonna have a QB this good again for awhile if ever. Sonny NEEDS to do something exciting this year with our golden bears.

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Made some money off of last year's line. By the time we hit 5 wins I was sad that I hadn't mortgaged my house and put everything into this bet. But I take the win line every year and honestly last year was the first time it paid off in quite awhile. I think we can do better than 4.5, but then I always do.

GivemTheAxe;842500912 said:

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Agree. Any win against a PAC12 team would be interpreted as evidence that the PAC12 is not very strong. But a win against Texas would be harder to ignore.(Fingers crossed).

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and it turns out the PAC was overrated last year. and judging by how they put Stanfurd at 9 and UCLA at 9.5, im guessing it will be again.

beeasyed, it's not that the P12 was overrated, it's more that there was a whole lot of parity in the conference and only Oregon managed to jump over the fray. As a conference, the Pac was still up there.

moonpod;842500947 said:

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last year the line was 2.5. it was explained as this: 4.5 talent but -2 games coaching factor. Vegas doesn't believe in Sonny. This year isn't much different. 7 game talent base, -2 to Sonny. It's on Sonny to prove them wrong again. I hope he does. because the reality is that if Sonny only wins 5 this year, ticket sales will probably slide a bit more. He won't get renewed. and recruiting will suffer. Sonny MUST do enough to make CMS excited

y'all gotta remember we got Goff for probably our last year this year. He's a probable NFL QB. Sonny isn't gonna have a QB this good again for awhile if ever. Sonny NEEDS to do something exciting this year with our golden bears.

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IMO the only way we land with 5 wins or less is if Goff gets injured, the program is heavily invested in him with him having started through his first two years . We now have the best passing offense in the west, at this point only a marginal improvement in defense would put us solidly in bowl territory.

I'm worried about Goff because our opponents' game plan will be to hit him. Hopefully Franklin is going to prepare the offense accordingly this offseason. A silver lining in case Goff does go down resulting in a losing season is that he would be much more likely to return for his senior season.

Cal88;842500967 said:

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beeasyed, it's not that the P12 was overrated, it's more that there was a whole lot of parity in the conference and only Oregon managed to jump over the fray. As a conference, the Pac was still up there.

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overrated with respect to our attitudes and expectations. i was convinced we'd be lucky to win 4 or 5. I'm not making the same mistake again when 3 or 4 schools are breaking in new QBs this year, and others are desperately trying to fill in holes left by NFL-caliber players

Cal88;842500967 said:

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I'm worried about Goff because our opponents' game plan will be to hit him. Hopefully Franklin is going to prepare the offense accordingly this offseason. A silver lining in case Goff does go down resulting in a losing season is that he would be much more likely to return for his senior season.

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hopefully Jones is a better coach than Yenser. Goff's ability to get rid of the ball and not take sacks is part of what makes him special. really good awareness. there was a stat posted that showed Hundley and Goff both experienced similarly high # of plays under pressure, but Hundley was sacked way more often than Jared.

Not quite easy money like last year (O/U 2.5... in the cash after week 3 lol).

I think the over is strong if Goff stays healthy. Have a hard time seeing under 5 wins... 5.5 would be a big difference though.

Totally agree. Schedule may be hard but it is still a basic Pac 12 schedule with a modest schedule outside the conference. And the Pac 12 is not a juggernaut this year. Sonny's seat will get very warm if we only win 5 and miss a bowl again. Hell, 6 wins won't be good either.

GB54;842500935 said:

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Five wins would be a disaster. The schedule will be tough every year. Are we only supposed to be content beating teams with a worse record? This year is Dyke's chance to show real progress.

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ooops scurred

going4roses;842500984 said:

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im not scarred

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as a cal fan I find it hard to believe we don't all have scars.

I don't like doing long term bets with my bookie, but I'll be in Vegas the week before Labor Day. If cal is 5/5.5, I'll be making a significant bet, regardless of our tough schedule.

If Moraga thinks we should win 7, then that only reassures me. He was pretty confident that we could win 6 last year, and we very well should have.

We will win 6 this year, and we will go to a bowl.

You rich bear backers better not drive up the line, and instead, let my poor self bathe in the riches of the Vegas bookies.

Sincerely,
Frank

GB54;842500935 said:

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Five wins would be a disaster. The schedule will be tough every year. Are we only supposed to be content beating teams with a worse record? This year is Dyke's chance to show real progress.

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Yup. Easy money.

The Tennessee game was the first game of Longshore's career with a frosh corner who consistently got burned (and eventually turned into one of the best we have had recently). Our TE was injured on the first play and the stadium was crazy. Also - Tennessee won the SEC east that year.

These guys - although not having a great record - are all seasoned veterans. They will not let the stadium intimidate them, I do not believe. They play well on the road, respectively.

SonOfCalVa;842500906 said:

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Top 5 difficult schedule seems to override any improvement in O and D.

http://www.californiagoldenblogs.com/2015/5/27/8665537/california-golden-bears-vegas-projections-odds-win-totals

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Guys, seriously. Cal has 2 cupcakes on the non-conference schedule that we should automatically assume are victories. For the sake of argument assume a loss to Texas and a worst case scenario non-conference record of 2-1. 5 wins means 3-6 in conference.

Goff and Kessler are by far the best QB's in the conference. Most teams are playing inexperienced QB's and in the Pac, experienced QB play is the key to winning. Cal has a ton of experienced talent at the offensive skill positions. If we don't expect to pull a winning record in conference this year (or if 4-5 is worthy of "publicity") what are we doing this for? A nice day at CMS and watching the band?

Minimum of 5 wins in conference and a minimum of 2 wins nonconference or this is a severe setback. 7 wins total, minimum. Over/Under of 5 wins is ridiculous.

I wouldn't bet it because if Goff goes down we are relying on a complete unknown to replace the strength of the team. Goff gets injured for a substantial part of the season and I'd agree you need to reevaluate expectations. But some are selling this team short to the point where I wonder if they are sandbagging or if they don't really have the confidence in the coaching staff to provide reasonable results.

SonOfCalVa;842500936 said:

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I think we'll see a lot of Forrest in the first two games, and not because of injury to Goff.
Goff will get sufficient reps but won't need to play the entire games. Forrest will be a ready backup.
He'll be rested and ready for Texass.

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...but we can't see [the] Forrest for the Trees.
ork:

Sonny should have to put his entire salary on this.

By the way, this is a great bet. If we only win 4, the program is doomed. 5 and you get your money back. It'll probably move to 5.5 pretty quick.

The line opened at -130. I think it's close to -200 now. Lousy bet

Ha! Yeah. It'll be at 5.5 soon. -200 is insane. Although I probably wouldn't put too much on 5.5 either. Talking about this provides a nice reality check about expectations for the season. "Well, if I had to actually put money on it..."

KoreAmBear;842501014 said:

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Yup. Easy money.

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Easy money, eh? You don't run a Las Vegas betting parlor do you?
I believe Cal will win 6-7 games. But I wouldn't call it easy money.

bearsandgiants;842501187 said:

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Sonny should have to put his entire salary on this.

By the way, this is a great bet. If we only win 4, the program is doomed. 5 and you get your money back. It'll probably move to 5.5 pretty quick.

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Sonny should have to do what?

If you're convinced it's a great bet, go all in, get a second mortgage ... you could become a HUGE benefactor, a legend among donors.

3-0 start would be nice...

FCBear;842501283 said:

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3-0 start would be nice...

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If Cal starts 3-0. Cal will very likely be 4-0 the next week.