Cal89;842638683 said:
... Berk, I'm under-the-weather, but I want to say a few things.
The term "garbage time" loosely means points being scored when the outcome of the game is perceived to be a forgone conclusion. Deck chairs on the Titanic so-to-speak. A few examples, 2015:
Cal down to UCLA 40-16, score a TD with under 3 minutes left
Cal down to Stanford 35-16, score a TD with less than 2 minutes left
Cal over OSU 47-24, score a TD with about 7 minutes left
Cal down to the Ducks by 20 half way through the 4th, score a TD
....
In 2014, and I just made time to look, those games:
Arizona = dogfight, no garbage time points for Cal
Buffs = dogfight, no garbage time points for Cal
Cougs = dogfight, no garbage time points for Cal
UW = no garbage points for Cal
UCLA = dogfight, no garbage points for Cal
Ducks = Cal battled, kept it exciting, but let's call 7 garbage points for Cal
Beavs = dogfight, no garbage points for Cal
Trojans = That final TD qualifies as GT for most maybe, but with an onside kick, same as 2015 Trojan game though
Stanford = Garbage TD with about 3 minutes left
So, if we include the Trojan game as having a GT TD, that would be 21 GT points in conference play, in 2014. No different than 2015, actually I'd say there were more GT points for Cal in 2015 (28 vs 21). As stated, trivial BS that over the course of an entire season, comparing seasons, generally washes-out. Degrading the 2014 offensive point production due to GT has no legs, and in actuality the contrary case can be made.
The next position taken to discount 2014's PPG was that the D's played in 2014 were particularly horrific. ..... We played very bad conference Ds in 2015 also, and the offense was simply less productive, as it was generally.
Some have postulated that superior athletes on the other side of the ball, not necessarily great or even good Ds, have been problematic for the TFS as well. .....
Here's a look at 2014 and 2015, not just one team (UW), but the top 5 conference Ds:
2014 Defense PPG Allowed, conference play
Stanford = 19
Oregon = 24
UW = 24
Southern Cal = 25
UCLA = 29
2014 - Cal's point delta against those team averages
Stanford = -2 (Cal scored 17)
Oregon = +17 (Cal scored 41)
UW = -17 (Cal scored 7)
Southern Cal = +5 (Cal scored 30)
UCLA = +5 (Cal scored 34)
2015 Defense PPG Allowed, conference play
UW = 20
Utah = 23
Stanford = 24
Southern Cal = 28
UCLA = 29
2015 - Cal's point delta against those team averages
UW = +10 (Cal scored 30)
Utah = +1 (Cal scored 24)
Stanford = -2 (Cal scored 22)
Southern Cal = -7 (Cal scored 21)
UCLA = -5 (Cal scored 24)
Cal's offense in 2015, against top 5 conference Ds, 3 times failed to score the Pac-12 average points. That happened twice in 2014. ....
... The more I look, the more I find that further highlights that the 2015 Cal offense was worse than the 2014 one, a TD less a game in conference play, when we should have improved.
The 2014 team delivered more conference points, in the face of being the most penalized team (just 44 yards/game in 2015)
The 2014 team delivered more conference points, while overcoming a negative TO margin (positive in 2015)
The 2015 team had a more seasoned, rare talent of a QB, likely a 1st round pick, possibly first overall.
The 2015 team had a more experienced, talented set of receivers, some have argued the best or deepest ever at Cal.
The 2015 was recognized as not just a veteran offensive squad, but overall as the "most experienced" P5 team, 3rd most in all FBS.
The 2015 team was its third year under TF and TFS, supposedly the break-out year.
GT doesn't explain this one bit, and as stated above GT favors otherwise, that the 2015 offense benefited in that respect, relatively speaking. Nor does racking-up tons of points against very bad conference Ds in 2014, as Cal played even lower rated conference D's in 2015. Against the top 5 conference Ds, Cal offense outperformed in 2014.
... What could have, should have been a banner year for this Goff-led offense, rose only to 6th best in the conference after playing ASU's pass D, dead last in FBS, by a margin.
.....
.....
The TFS failed to live-up to expectation at Cal and TF is gone. That simple. Go SD and Go Bears!
So may I add to the facts of 2014 vs. 2015 teams O and D, for possible take if any by berk18, Cal89, NasalMuc, KingPosi, beeasyed, tequila4, or etc.
For league play:
In 2015, for FG attempts we had 9 kicks under 30. 47% of all the kicks.
In 2014, for FG attempts we had 3 kicks under 30. 18% of all the kicks.
2015: 4 kicks over 40, 2 of those 45 yards or over (total 19 kicks). 21% over 40. 11% 45 or over.
2014: 10 kicks over 40, 7 of those 45 yards or over (total 17 kicks). 59% over 40. 41% 45 or over.
In 2015, we had 1 attempt 47 yards or above, 5% of all kicks (1 of 19).
In 2014, we had 6 attempts 47 yards or above, 35% of all the kicks (6 of 17).
2015: had 5 more FG's than 2014, with 6 more attempts under 30 yards.
2015: we had 7 FG attempts in the last 3 games.
2014: we had 2 FG attempts in the last 3 games.
Not sure what those facts mean as far as the difference in offense (or defense performance) between the years.
beeasyed pointed out this: "In 2014, Cal's red zone conversion for TDs was 72.5% (#9 in country). In 2015, it dropped to 64.7% (#41 in country)."
[Contrast point of reference: Oregon 2015, 20 for 22 in FG attempts, 9 kicks under 30 (same as we had). 9 under 40 (more than we), so they had 18 kicks under 40. We had 14 kicks under 40. Oregon had only 1 kick over 40 (a 41), 0 kicks 45 yards or over (total 22 kicks).]
