Will We See Bowers Again?

hotlanta
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It was incredibly odd they way his status/situation was handled throughout the entire year.
MilleniaBear
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Nope. Saw him before the Big Game. He didnt even suit up.
KoreAmBear
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MilleniaBear said:

Nope. Saw him before the Big Game. He didnt even suit up.
He posted on his IG with Bryce Treggs in plain clothes with a beer in his hand the day of The Big Game. Didn't seem like a guy who was going to be even in a jersey standing on the sidelines. All signs point to his days of Cal football being over, which is a shame. After a season of this, I believe he is still the best QB of the three.
72CalBear
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There is definitely something behind Bower's story that we don't know about. Was he mistreated, injured, simply lose the job, or what???
KenBurnski
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That is so interesting, weird and sort of sad.
hotlanta
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How did Bowers 2017 passing yardage compare to the 2018 Garbers/McIlwain passing yardage?
71Bear
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hotlanta said:

How did Bowers 2017 passing yardage compare to the 2018 Garbers/McIlwain passing yardage?
How did Cal's record in 2017 compare to 2018?

Bottom line - who gives a damn about QB yardage. The object of the game is to win not pile up stats.
OaktownBear
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71Bear said:

hotlanta said:

How did Bowers 2017 passing yardage compare to the 2018 Garbers/McIlwain passing yardage?
How did Cal's record in 2017 compare to 2018?

Bottom line - who gives a damn about QB yardage. The object of the game is to win not pile up stats.


I love ya, 71, but I can't get behind the logic in this reasoning. Our record is better because our defense went from middling to awesome. If our defense played each opponent last year as they did this year, we would have won four more games last year. Our offense scored 30 points five times last year. They scored 20 points four times this year. There were two major differences in Cal this year. The defense got dramatically better and the passing game got dramatically worse. The run game with almost the same personnel was less effective because everyone stacked the box because we couldn't throw.

I'll tell you why the passing yards matter. It is like a three point shooter who hits 40% by taking only the most wide open shots and going 8 for 20 on the season comparing to the guy who takes 5 shots a game. Garbers will not make a tough throw. If it isn't wide open, he pulls it down and runs, takes a sack, or throws it away. At some point, if you won't take a chance, the offense can't move or score. It is also telling that the OC goes into his shell when Garbers is in.

Your argument that he does enough to win while Bowers does enough to lose could apply equally to arguing Dilfer is better than Marino. There are 22 positions on the field. Sometimes the other 21 are just better. Garbers did exactly one thing enough to win. Nothing. In other words, he wasn't Brandon McIlwain. He didn't majorly screw up. (though this conversation would be going differently if WSU doesn't coug the pick six or Laird doesn't break through the line on fourth down after Garbers inexplicably slides against SC). Forrest could have done that. I could have done that. We have to stop being so scarred as fans that because the first QB is a turnover machine we think simply not turning the ball over without moving or scoring equals good. Bottom line, the offense moved and scored under Bowers. The offense moved and scored under McIlwain, but he gave up more than he got. The offense does zippo under Garbers.

Doesn't mean I'm down on Garbers as a prospect. He was just a frost. But crediting him with wins the defense single handedly achieved is silly. This year is one big lesson in how poor we are on offense generally and at QB specifically. He flat out wasn't and isn't ready.

I love the staff, but yanking all eggs out of the Bowers basket and going all in on Garbers and McIlwain was a huge mistake. I'm not saying Bowers wins the starting job (though I think he has been unquestionably the best of the three). But going into the Spring with Garbers the only option and no competition (or even back up) is frankly close to a disaster
annarborbear
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The same inidividual, Baldwin, that thought Garbers would be better than Bowers then thought that Mcilwain would be better than Garbers.
SmellinRoses
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Yep. Garbers is not good. Doesn't mean he can't get better but he's not good now. He isn't very accurate, doesn't have a strong arm and has a penchant for throwing ducks - see Big Game pik six that went through Wharton's hands.

Given the cluster at the position, time seems ripe for a grad transfer a la Webb. We'll see.
71Bear
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OaktownBear said:

71Bear said:

hotlanta said:

How did Bowers 2017 passing yardage compare to the 2018 Garbers/McIlwain passing yardage?
How did Cal's record in 2017 compare to 2018?

Bottom line - who gives a damn about QB yardage. The object of the game is to win not pile up stats.


I love ya, 71, but I can't get behind the logic in this reasoning. Our record is better because our defense went from middling to awesome. If our defense played each opponent last year as they did this year, we would have won four more games last year. Our offense scored 30 points five times last year. They scored 20 points four times this year. There were two major differences in Cal this year. The defense got dramatically better and the passing game got dramatically worse. The run game with almost the same personnel was less effective because everyone stacked the box because we couldn't throw.

I'll tell you why the passing yards matter. It is like a three point shooter who hits 40% by taking only the most wide open shots and going 8 for 20 on the season comparing to the guy who takes 5 shots a game. Garbers will not make a tough throw. If it isn't wide open, he pulls it down and runs, takes a sack, or throws it away. At some point, if you won't take a chance, the offense can't move or score. It is also telling that the OC goes into his shell when Garbers is in.

Your argument that he does enough to win while Bowers does enough to lose could apply equally to arguing Dilfer is better than Marino. There are 22 positions on the field. Sometimes the other 21 are just better. Garbers did exactly one thing enough to win. Nothing. In other words, he wasn't Brandon McIlwain. He didn't majorly screw up. (though this conversation would be going differently if WSU doesn't coug the pick six or Laird doesn't break through the line on fourth down after Garbers inexplicably slides against SC). Forrest could have done that. I could have done that. We have to stop being so scarred as fans that because the first QB is a turnover machine we think simply not turning the ball over without moving or scoring equals good. Bottom line, the offense moved and scored under Bowers. The offense moved and scored under McIlwain, but he gave up more than he got. The offense does zippo under Garbers.

Doesn't mean I'm down on Garbers as a prospect. He was just a frost. But crediting him with wins the defense single handedly achieved is silly. This year is one big lesson in how poor we are on offense generally and at QB specifically. He flat out wasn't and isn't ready.

I love the staff, but yanking all eggs out of the Bowers basket and going all in on Garbers and McIlwain was a huge mistake. I'm not saying Bowers wins the starting job (though I think he has been unquestionably the best of the three). But going into the Spring with Garbers the only option and no competition (or even back up) is frankly close to a disaster
Funny that you should mention Marino. He is my poster guy for stats over wins. The SF/Miami Super Bowl was the classic example of why being a complete quarterback requires more skills/attributes than simply piling up gaudy stats.

Forget Bowers for the moment, let's talk about Davis Webb - a guy who made all the plays except when it counted. He piled up a lot of big numbers but no one will remember him in the long run. Bowers was cut from the same cloth. Cal's only chance to reach bowl status this year was to bench Bowers and put the offense in the hands of Garbers. I said that before the season and nothing that transpired this season has changed my mind.

We knew Garbers would struggle at times. Heck, he is 19 years old. He is just getting started. Assuming he receives an upgrade in support (i.e., OLers and WR's), I suggest that we will see a big leap in his results next season. He certainly possesses the confidence and physical ability to be successful. I liken it to a hoops player who wants the ball at a critical juncture in a game as opposed to a guy who chooses to pass the ball at that same point in a game. Garbers wants the ball because he knows he will bury the shot. That is the guy I want leading the team.
golden sloth
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SmellinRoses said:

Yep. Garbers is not good. Doesn't mean he can't get better but he's not good now. He isn't very accurate, doesn't have a strong arm and has a penchant for throwing ducks - see Big Game pik six that went through Wharton's hands.

Given the cluster at the position, time seems ripe for a grad transfer a la Webb. We'll see.
Are you seriously blaming Garbers for the pick off of Wharton's hands? Because if so, that is incredibly stupid.
dajo9
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71Bear said:

OaktownBear said:

71Bear said:

hotlanta said:

How did Bowers 2017 passing yardage compare to the 2018 Garbers/McIlwain passing yardage?
How did Cal's record in 2017 compare to 2018?

Bottom line - who gives a damn about QB yardage. The object of the game is to win not pile up stats.


I love ya, 71, but I can't get behind the logic in this reasoning. Our record is better because our defense went from middling to awesome. If our defense played each opponent last year as they did this year, we would have won four more games last year. Our offense scored 30 points five times last year. They scored 20 points four times this year. There were two major differences in Cal this year. The defense got dramatically better and the passing game got dramatically worse. The run game with almost the same personnel was less effective because everyone stacked the box because we couldn't throw.

I'll tell you why the passing yards matter. It is like a three point shooter who hits 40% by taking only the most wide open shots and going 8 for 20 on the season comparing to the guy who takes 5 shots a game. Garbers will not make a tough throw. If it isn't wide open, he pulls it down and runs, takes a sack, or throws it away. At some point, if you won't take a chance, the offense can't move or score. It is also telling that the OC goes into his shell when Garbers is in.

Your argument that he does enough to win while Bowers does enough to lose could apply equally to arguing Dilfer is better than Marino. There are 22 positions on the field. Sometimes the other 21 are just better. Garbers did exactly one thing enough to win. Nothing. In other words, he wasn't Brandon McIlwain. He didn't majorly screw up. (though this conversation would be going differently if WSU doesn't coug the pick six or Laird doesn't break through the line on fourth down after Garbers inexplicably slides against SC). Forrest could have done that. I could have done that. We have to stop being so scarred as fans that because the first QB is a turnover machine we think simply not turning the ball over without moving or scoring equals good. Bottom line, the offense moved and scored under Bowers. The offense moved and scored under McIlwain, but he gave up more than he got. The offense does zippo under Garbers.

Doesn't mean I'm down on Garbers as a prospect. He was just a frost. But crediting him with wins the defense single handedly achieved is silly. This year is one big lesson in how poor we are on offense generally and at QB specifically. He flat out wasn't and isn't ready.

I love the staff, but yanking all eggs out of the Bowers basket and going all in on Garbers and McIlwain was a huge mistake. I'm not saying Bowers wins the starting job (though I think he has been unquestionably the best of the three). But going into the Spring with Garbers the only option and no competition (or even back up) is frankly close to a disaster
Funny that you should mention Marino. He is my poster guy for stats over wins. The SF/Miami Super Bowl was the classic example of why being a complete quarterback requires more skills/attributes than simply piling up gaudy stats.

Forget Bowers for the moment, let's talk about Davis Webb - a guy who made all the plays except when it counted. He piled up a lot of big numbers but no one will remember him in the long run. Bowers was cut from the same cloth. Cal's only chance to reach bowl status this year was to bench Bowers and put the offense in the hands of Garbers. I said that before the season and nothing that transpired this season has changed my mind.

We knew Garbers would struggle at times. Heck, he is 19 years old. He is just getting started. Assuming he receives an upgrade in support (i.e., OLers and WR's), I suggest that we will see a big leap in his results next season. He certainly possesses the confidence and physical ability to be successful. I liken it to a hoops player who wants the ball at a critical juncture in a game as opposed to a guy who chooses to pass the ball at that same point in a game. Garbers wants the ball because he knows he will bury the shot. That is the guy I want leading the team.

Are you talking about Chase Garbers here or some other Garbers? Because Chase Garbers, repeatedly on 3rd down, didn't take the shot. Instead he panicked and ran before getting tackled before the 1st down marker.

Look, Garbers may improve. But if you called for Garbers over Bowers in 2018, you made a bad call and have been bailed out by Bowers disappearance and Cal's defense.
BearGreg
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Staff
Some data here - Passing Stats

Hard to get to a clutch data point, but here are two cuts that may provide some insight

Bowers had a 125 QB rating in 4th quarters in 2017
Garbers had a 123 QB rating in 4th quarters in 2016

On 3rd and longs (10+ yards)

Bowers had a 134 passer rating, Garbers had an 84 rating.
Big C
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71Bear said:

OaktownBear said:

71Bear said:

hotlanta said:

How did Bowers 2017 passing yardage compare to the 2018 Garbers/McIlwain passing yardage?
How did Cal's record in 2017 compare to 2018?

Bottom line - who gives a damn about QB yardage. The object of the game is to win not pile up stats.


I love ya, 71, but I can't get behind the logic in this reasoning. Our record is better because our defense went from middling to awesome. If our defense played each opponent last year as they did this year, we would have won four more games last year. Our offense scored 30 points five times last year. They scored 20 points four times this year. There were two major differences in Cal this year. The defense got dramatically better and the passing game got dramatically worse. The run game with almost the same personnel was less effective because everyone stacked the box because we couldn't throw.

I'll tell you why the passing yards matter. It is like a three point shooter who hits 40% by taking only the most wide open shots and going 8 for 20 on the season comparing to the guy who takes 5 shots a game. Garbers will not make a tough throw. If it isn't wide open, he pulls it down and runs, takes a sack, or throws it away. At some point, if you won't take a chance, the offense can't move or score. It is also telling that the OC goes into his shell when Garbers is in.

Your argument that he does enough to win while Bowers does enough to lose could apply equally to arguing Dilfer is better than Marino. There are 22 positions on the field. Sometimes the other 21 are just better. Garbers did exactly one thing enough to win. Nothing. In other words, he wasn't Brandon McIlwain. He didn't majorly screw up. (though this conversation would be going differently if WSU doesn't coug the pick six or Laird doesn't break through the line on fourth down after Garbers inexplicably slides against SC). Forrest could have done that. I could have done that. We have to stop being so scarred as fans that because the first QB is a turnover machine we think simply not turning the ball over without moving or scoring equals good. Bottom line, the offense moved and scored under Bowers. The offense moved and scored under McIlwain, but he gave up more than he got. The offense does zippo under Garbers.

Doesn't mean I'm down on Garbers as a prospect. He was just a frost. But crediting him with wins the defense single handedly achieved is silly. This year is one big lesson in how poor we are on offense generally and at QB specifically. He flat out wasn't and isn't ready.

I love the staff, but yanking all eggs out of the Bowers basket and going all in on Garbers and McIlwain was a huge mistake. I'm not saying Bowers wins the starting job (though I think he has been unquestionably the best of the three). But going into the Spring with Garbers the only option and no competition (or even back up) is frankly close to a disaster
Funny that you should mention Marino. He is my poster guy for stats over wins. The SF/Miami Super Bowl was the classic example of why being a complete quarterback requires more skills/attributes than simply piling up gaudy stats.

Forget Bowers for the moment, let's talk about Davis Webb - a guy who made all the plays except when it counted. He piled up a lot of big numbers but no one will remember him in the long run. Bowers was cut from the same cloth. Cal's only chance to reach bowl status this year was to bench Bowers and put the offense in the hands of Garbers. I said that before the season and nothing that transpired this season has changed my mind.

We knew Garbers would struggle at times. Heck, he is 19 years old. He is just getting started. Assuming he receives an upgrade in support (i.e., OLers and WR's), I suggest that we will see a big leap in his results next season. He certainly possesses the confidence and physical ability to be successful. I liken it to a hoops player who wants the ball at a critical juncture in a game as opposed to a guy who chooses to pass the ball at that same point in a game. Garbers wants the ball because he knows he will bury the shot. That is the guy I want leading the team.

Bowers, McIlwain and Garbers all wanted the ball in their hands to win the game for us. The question is, did WE want the ball in their hands?

Are you suggesting, even for a second, that this year's team would not have been A LOT better with Davis Webb at QB?

Garbers can be better next year, especially with a better supporting cast. I hope he is, but this is the same conversation we were having a year ago, just substitute the name Bowers.
71Bear
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Big C said:

71Bear said:

OaktownBear said:

71Bear said:

hotlanta said:

How did Bowers 2017 passing yardage compare to the 2018 Garbers/McIlwain passing yardage?
How did Cal's record in 2017 compare to 2018?

Bottom line - who gives a damn about QB yardage. The object of the game is to win not pile up stats.


I love ya, 71, but I can't get behind the logic in this reasoning. Our record is better because our defense went from middling to awesome. If our defense played each opponent last year as they did this year, we would have won four more games last year. Our offense scored 30 points five times last year. They scored 20 points four times this year. There were two major differences in Cal this year. The defense got dramatically better and the passing game got dramatically worse. The run game with almost the same personnel was less effective because everyone stacked the box because we couldn't throw.

I'll tell you why the passing yards matter. It is like a three point shooter who hits 40% by taking only the most wide open shots and going 8 for 20 on the season comparing to the guy who takes 5 shots a game. Garbers will not make a tough throw. If it isn't wide open, he pulls it down and runs, takes a sack, or throws it away. At some point, if you won't take a chance, the offense can't move or score. It is also telling that the OC goes into his shell when Garbers is in.

Your argument that he does enough to win while Bowers does enough to lose could apply equally to arguing Dilfer is better than Marino. There are 22 positions on the field. Sometimes the other 21 are just better. Garbers did exactly one thing enough to win. Nothing. In other words, he wasn't Brandon McIlwain. He didn't majorly screw up. (though this conversation would be going differently if WSU doesn't coug the pick six or Laird doesn't break through the line on fourth down after Garbers inexplicably slides against SC). Forrest could have done that. I could have done that. We have to stop being so scarred as fans that because the first QB is a turnover machine we think simply not turning the ball over without moving or scoring equals good. Bottom line, the offense moved and scored under Bowers. The offense moved and scored under McIlwain, but he gave up more than he got. The offense does zippo under Garbers.

Doesn't mean I'm down on Garbers as a prospect. He was just a frost. But crediting him with wins the defense single handedly achieved is silly. This year is one big lesson in how poor we are on offense generally and at QB specifically. He flat out wasn't and isn't ready.

I love the staff, but yanking all eggs out of the Bowers basket and going all in on Garbers and McIlwain was a huge mistake. I'm not saying Bowers wins the starting job (though I think he has been unquestionably the best of the three). But going into the Spring with Garbers the only option and no competition (or even back up) is frankly close to a disaster
Funny that you should mention Marino. He is my poster guy for stats over wins. The SF/Miami Super Bowl was the classic example of why being a complete quarterback requires more skills/attributes than simply piling up gaudy stats.

Forget Bowers for the moment, let's talk about Davis Webb - a guy who made all the plays except when it counted. He piled up a lot of big numbers but no one will remember him in the long run. Bowers was cut from the same cloth. Cal's only chance to reach bowl status this year was to bench Bowers and put the offense in the hands of Garbers. I said that before the season and nothing that transpired this season has changed my mind.

We knew Garbers would struggle at times. Heck, he is 19 years old. He is just getting started. Assuming he receives an upgrade in support (i.e., OLers and WR's), I suggest that we will see a big leap in his results next season. He certainly possesses the confidence and physical ability to be successful. I liken it to a hoops player who wants the ball at a critical juncture in a game as opposed to a guy who chooses to pass the ball at that same point in a game. Garbers wants the ball because he knows he will bury the shot. That is the guy I want leading the team.

Bowers, McIlwain and Garbers all wanted the ball in their hands to win the game for us. The question is, did WE want the ball in their hands?

Are you suggesting, even for a second, that this year's team would not have been A LOT better with Davis Webb at QB?

Garbers can be better next year, especially with a better supporting cast. I hope he is, but this is the same conversation we were having a year ago, just substitute the name Bowers.
Re: your last paragraph...

Just for the record, I was never among those who were involved in that conversation. I felt that if Cal had any hope of moving forward, Bowers had to be left at the station....
Another Bear
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BearGreg said:

Some data here - Passing Stats

Hard to get to a clutch data point, but here are two cuts that may provide some insight

Bowers had a 125 QB rating in 4th quarters in 2017
Garbers had a 123 QB rating in 4th quarters in 2016

On 3rd and longs (10+ yards)

Bowers had a 134 passer rating, Garbers had an 84 rating.
Not converting on 3rd down seems to be one of the current offense's bigger issues, a giant momentum killer. It's been a year but I recall Bowers making clutch plays on 3rd down.
OaktownBear
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71Bear said:

OaktownBear said:

71Bear said:

hotlanta said:

How did Bowers 2017 passing yardage compare to the 2018 Garbers/McIlwain passing yardage?
How did Cal's record in 2017 compare to 2018?

Bottom line - who gives a damn about QB yardage. The object of the game is to win not pile up stats.


I love ya, 71, but I can't get behind the logic in this reasoning. Our record is better because our defense went from middling to awesome. If our defense played each opponent last year as they did this year, we would have won four more games last year. Our offense scored 30 points five times last year. They scored 20 points four times this year. There were two major differences in Cal this year. The defense got dramatically better and the passing game got dramatically worse. The run game with almost the same personnel was less effective because everyone stacked the box because we couldn't throw.

I'll tell you why the passing yards matter. It is like a three point shooter who hits 40% by taking only the most wide open shots and going 8 for 20 on the season comparing to the guy who takes 5 shots a game. Garbers will not make a tough throw. If it isn't wide open, he pulls it down and runs, takes a sack, or throws it away. At some point, if you won't take a chance, the offense can't move or score. It is also telling that the OC goes into his shell when Garbers is in.

Your argument that he does enough to win while Bowers does enough to lose could apply equally to arguing Dilfer is better than Marino. There are 22 positions on the field. Sometimes the other 21 are just better. Garbers did exactly one thing enough to win. Nothing. In other words, he wasn't Brandon McIlwain. He didn't majorly screw up. (though this conversation would be going differently if WSU doesn't coug the pick six or Laird doesn't break through the line on fourth down after Garbers inexplicably slides against SC). Forrest could have done that. I could have done that. We have to stop being so scarred as fans that because the first QB is a turnover machine we think simply not turning the ball over without moving or scoring equals good. Bottom line, the offense moved and scored under Bowers. The offense moved and scored under McIlwain, but he gave up more than he got. The offense does zippo under Garbers.

Doesn't mean I'm down on Garbers as a prospect. He was just a frost. But crediting him with wins the defense single handedly achieved is silly. This year is one big lesson in how poor we are on offense generally and at QB specifically. He flat out wasn't and isn't ready.

I love the staff, but yanking all eggs out of the Bowers basket and going all in on Garbers and McIlwain was a huge mistake. I'm not saying Bowers wins the starting job (though I think he has been unquestionably the best of the three). But going into the Spring with Garbers the only option and no competition (or even back up) is frankly close to a disaster
Funny that you should mention Marino. He is my poster guy for stats over wins. The SF/Miami Super Bowl was the classic example of why being a complete quarterback requires more skills/attributes than simply piling up gaudy stats.

Forget Bowers for the moment, let's talk about Davis Webb - a guy who made all the plays except when it counted. He piled up a lot of big numbers but no one will remember him in the long run. Bowers was cut from the same cloth. Cal's only chance to reach bowl status this year was to bench Bowers and put the offense in the hands of Garbers. I said that before the season and nothing that transpired this season has changed my mind.

We knew Garbers would struggle at times. Heck, he is 19 years old. He is just getting started. Assuming he receives an upgrade in support (i.e., OLers and WR's), I suggest that we will see a big leap in his results next season. He certainly possesses the confidence and physical ability to be successful. I liken it to a hoops player who wants the ball at a critical juncture in a game as opposed to a guy who chooses to pass the ball at that same point in a game. Garbers wants the ball because he knows he will bury the shot. That is the guy I want leading the team.

I wasn't comparing Marino to Montana. (I'd take Montana every time). I was comparing him to Dilfer. Marino never had a defense. I guarantee you he takes that Ravens team to a Super Bowl Championship. (I'm quite sure he'd have won at least one with SF also). Look at Elway. He didn't win when he was the whole team, making clutch plays. He won when the rest of the team picked him up in a very Dilferesque manner.

Webb and the whole Dykes offense was overrated and piled up stats when it didn't matter. That said, I guarantee you Cal wins more games this year with Webb and I would love to have him next year.

Garbers didn't struggle "at times". He struggled all of the time. The only standard he exceeded was the don't turn the ball over a million times a game like McIlwain standard. I could have used Brock Mansion to do that.

If you swap the 2017 defensive performance with the 2018 defensive performances, Cal goes 9-3 in 2017 and 4-8 in 2018. The difference was the defense. Not clutch plays from the QB.

Last year the defense gave up 30, 45, 38, 45, 44, and 30 in 6 losses. And Garbers was going to win one of those how, considering his offense didn't score more than 19 in any game except Idaho State and Oregon State?

Bowers lead come from behind victories against UNC and Ole Miss. With actual passes. Long drives with long passes. (2 70+ yard touchdown drives in the fourth against UNC.)

What are these clutch plays by Garbers? With a 14 year losing streak against USC on the line and the victory sitting easily in his hands, he slid a yard short. He got bailed out by the O-Line and Laird. That is Mr. Clutch, give me the ball I'll make the shot? That was an alligator arms airball as far as I could tell. (your comparison to Paws after that made me want to throw my computer out a window). Bowers has many faults, but one thing he has proven is his head would have been down and he would have run over anyone he needed to for that first down. (and this wasn't the only time Garbers gave up short.) And franky, I have not seen a Cal QB so tentative to throw the football with the exception of Sweeney. He will not put the ball in tight coverage. EVER. He pulls it down every time. I don't see where you are getting this Dirty Harry, Gimme the damned ball, description of the guy. If I were Wilcox, my number 1 priority for the bowl game would be to get in a room with Baldwin and Garbers and say "Dammit, I need to see an offense. Beau, you are using the whole damned playbook and running the offense the way it is supposed to be run. I don't care what you think of the personnel. I don't see that, you're fired. Garbers stay in the play, read the defense and throw the damned ball. I don't care if you throw 8 interceptions. I need to see what you can do and I can't have a QB who is afraid to throw. I don't see that, I'm looking for another option next year and I don't care if you don't think I don't have one. I'll find one."

I like Garbers as a prospect and I'd love to see him in 2020, cuz he ain't ready now. The QB position is dismal with or without Bowers. Believe me, I don't see Bowers 2017 as the answer, though to me a clear better answer than Garbers 2018. What I see is that the answer hasn't presented itself and unless McIlwain figures out a way to stop shooting himself in both feet and then the head, the best options were Garbers and Bowers and letting them compete and praying one of them does something. Eliminating one of the options, and frankly the only one that actually moves the offense against FBS competition not named Oregon State, is a bad situation.

Last 5 games points scored by the offense:
6, (3 points on 36 yard drive)
13, (7 points on 39 yard drive)
13,
19 (13 points coming on "drives" of 29 yard, 8 yards, and 34 yards)
13 (3 points on 36 yard "drive", 7 points in garbage time)

In the last five games, Cal's offense has scored a total of 28 points (5.6 points per game) when starting in their own territory. Amazingly 13 of those were against Stanford, but maybe it is not so amazing since 7 of those points were the garbage time touchdown and that would bring the Stanford game more in line with the others (take away that and we are at 4.2 points per game). When that is your offensive production, you don't have "the guy" at QB yet.
going4roses
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Confusion will always surround this issue best to just let it be and thank bowers and move on.

Go Bears ...

BearGoggles
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dajo9 said:

71Bear said:

OaktownBear said:

71Bear said:

hotlanta said:

How did Bowers 2017 passing yardage compare to the 2018 Garbers/McIlwain passing yardage?
How did Cal's record in 2017 compare to 2018?

Bottom line - who gives a damn about QB yardage. The object of the game is to win not pile up stats.


I love ya, 71, but I can't get behind the logic in this reasoning. Our record is better because our defense went from middling to awesome. If our defense played each opponent last year as they did this year, we would have won four more games last year. Our offense scored 30 points five times last year. They scored 20 points four times this year. There were two major differences in Cal this year. The defense got dramatically better and the passing game got dramatically worse. The run game with almost the same personnel was less effective because everyone stacked the box because we couldn't throw.

I'll tell you why the passing yards matter. It is like a three point shooter who hits 40% by taking only the most wide open shots and going 8 for 20 on the season comparing to the guy who takes 5 shots a game. Garbers will not make a tough throw. If it isn't wide open, he pulls it down and runs, takes a sack, or throws it away. At some point, if you won't take a chance, the offense can't move or score. It is also telling that the OC goes into his shell when Garbers is in.

Your argument that he does enough to win while Bowers does enough to lose could apply equally to arguing Dilfer is better than Marino. There are 22 positions on the field. Sometimes the other 21 are just better. Garbers did exactly one thing enough to win. Nothing. In other words, he wasn't Brandon McIlwain. He didn't majorly screw up. (though this conversation would be going differently if WSU doesn't coug the pick six or Laird doesn't break through the line on fourth down after Garbers inexplicably slides against SC). Forrest could have done that. I could have done that. We have to stop being so scarred as fans that because the first QB is a turnover machine we think simply not turning the ball over without moving or scoring equals good. Bottom line, the offense moved and scored under Bowers. The offense moved and scored under McIlwain, but he gave up more than he got. The offense does zippo under Garbers.

Doesn't mean I'm down on Garbers as a prospect. He was just a frost. But crediting him with wins the defense single handedly achieved is silly. This year is one big lesson in how poor we are on offense generally and at QB specifically. He flat out wasn't and isn't ready.

I love the staff, but yanking all eggs out of the Bowers basket and going all in on Garbers and McIlwain was a huge mistake. I'm not saying Bowers wins the starting job (though I think he has been unquestionably the best of the three). But going into the Spring with Garbers the only option and no competition (or even back up) is frankly close to a disaster
Funny that you should mention Marino. He is my poster guy for stats over wins. The SF/Miami Super Bowl was the classic example of why being a complete quarterback requires more skills/attributes than simply piling up gaudy stats.

Forget Bowers for the moment, let's talk about Davis Webb - a guy who made all the plays except when it counted. He piled up a lot of big numbers but no one will remember him in the long run. Bowers was cut from the same cloth. Cal's only chance to reach bowl status this year was to bench Bowers and put the offense in the hands of Garbers. I said that before the season and nothing that transpired this season has changed my mind.

We knew Garbers would struggle at times. Heck, he is 19 years old. He is just getting started. Assuming he receives an upgrade in support (i.e., OLers and WR's), I suggest that we will see a big leap in his results next season. He certainly possesses the confidence and physical ability to be successful. I liken it to a hoops player who wants the ball at a critical juncture in a game as opposed to a guy who chooses to pass the ball at that same point in a game. Garbers wants the ball because he knows he will bury the shot. That is the guy I want leading the team.

Are you talking about Chase Garbers here or some other Garbers? Because Chase Garbers, repeatedly on 3rd down, didn't take the shot. Instead he panicked and ran before getting tackled before the 1st down marker.

Look, Garbers may improve. But if you called for Garbers over Bowers in 2018, you made a bad call and have been bailed out by Bowers disappearance and Cal's defense.

Are you talking about Ross Bowers here or some other Bowers? Because Ross Bowers repeatedly on 3rd down didn't make a positive play. Instead he held the ball too long, took bad sacks and threw interceptions into obvious double coverage. Completions and first down conversion would have been ideal; but running with the ball for a modest gain is far better than taking a sack like Bowers often did.

I was hoping Bowers would play and take the next step this past year. For reasons we still don't know, that didn't happen though obviously he was injured at some point. Garbers' play was uneven (much like Bowers the year before). But let's not be revisionist and pretend Bower's 3rd down play was better.

Another Bear
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BearGoggles said:

dajo9 said:

71Bear said:

OaktownBear said:

71Bear said:

hotlanta said:

How did Bowers 2017 passing yardage compare to the 2018 Garbers/McIlwain passing yardage?
How did Cal's record in 2017 compare to 2018?

Bottom line - who gives a damn about QB yardage. The object of the game is to win not pile up stats.


I love ya, 71, but I can't get behind the logic in this reasoning. Our record is better because our defense went from middling to awesome. If our defense played each opponent last year as they did this year, we would have won four more games last year. Our offense scored 30 points five times last year. They scored 20 points four times this year. There were two major differences in Cal this year. The defense got dramatically better and the passing game got dramatically worse. The run game with almost the same personnel was less effective because everyone stacked the box because we couldn't throw.

I'll tell you why the passing yards matter. It is like a three point shooter who hits 40% by taking only the most wide open shots and going 8 for 20 on the season comparing to the guy who takes 5 shots a game. Garbers will not make a tough throw. If it isn't wide open, he pulls it down and runs, takes a sack, or throws it away. At some point, if you won't take a chance, the offense can't move or score. It is also telling that the OC goes into his shell when Garbers is in.

Your argument that he does enough to win while Bowers does enough to lose could apply equally to arguing Dilfer is better than Marino. There are 22 positions on the field. Sometimes the other 21 are just better. Garbers did exactly one thing enough to win. Nothing. In other words, he wasn't Brandon McIlwain. He didn't majorly screw up. (though this conversation would be going differently if WSU doesn't coug the pick six or Laird doesn't break through the line on fourth down after Garbers inexplicably slides against SC). Forrest could have done that. I could have done that. We have to stop being so scarred as fans that because the first QB is a turnover machine we think simply not turning the ball over without moving or scoring equals good. Bottom line, the offense moved and scored under Bowers. The offense moved and scored under McIlwain, but he gave up more than he got. The offense does zippo under Garbers.

Doesn't mean I'm down on Garbers as a prospect. He was just a frost. But crediting him with wins the defense single handedly achieved is silly. This year is one big lesson in how poor we are on offense generally and at QB specifically. He flat out wasn't and isn't ready.

I love the staff, but yanking all eggs out of the Bowers basket and going all in on Garbers and McIlwain was a huge mistake. I'm not saying Bowers wins the starting job (though I think he has been unquestionably the best of the three). But going into the Spring with Garbers the only option and no competition (or even back up) is frankly close to a disaster
Funny that you should mention Marino. He is my poster guy for stats over wins. The SF/Miami Super Bowl was the classic example of why being a complete quarterback requires more skills/attributes than simply piling up gaudy stats.

Forget Bowers for the moment, let's talk about Davis Webb - a guy who made all the plays except when it counted. He piled up a lot of big numbers but no one will remember him in the long run. Bowers was cut from the same cloth. Cal's only chance to reach bowl status this year was to bench Bowers and put the offense in the hands of Garbers. I said that before the season and nothing that transpired this season has changed my mind.

We knew Garbers would struggle at times. Heck, he is 19 years old. He is just getting started. Assuming he receives an upgrade in support (i.e., OLers and WR's), I suggest that we will see a big leap in his results next season. He certainly possesses the confidence and physical ability to be successful. I liken it to a hoops player who wants the ball at a critical juncture in a game as opposed to a guy who chooses to pass the ball at that same point in a game. Garbers wants the ball because he knows he will bury the shot. That is the guy I want leading the team.

Are you talking about Chase Garbers here or some other Garbers? Because Chase Garbers, repeatedly on 3rd down, didn't take the shot. Instead he panicked and ran before getting tackled before the 1st down marker.

Look, Garbers may improve. But if you called for Garbers over Bowers in 2018, you made a bad call and have been bailed out by Bowers disappearance and Cal's defense.

Are you talking about Ross Bowers here or some other Bowers? Because Ross Bowers repeatedly on 3rd down didn't make a positive play. Instead he held the ball too long, took bad sacks and threw interceptions into obvious double coverage. Completions and first down conversion would have been ideal; but running with the ball for a modest gain is far better than taking a sack like Bowers often did.

I was hoping Bowers would play and take the next step this past year. For reasons we still don't know, that didn't happen though obviously he was injured at some point. Garbers' play was uneven (much like Bowers the year before). But let's not be revisionist and pretend Bower's 3rd down play was better.


Look up thread, to the green highlighted box, I believe #14.
Quote:

On 3rd and longs (10+ yards)

Bowers had a 134 passer rating, Garbers had an 84 rating.


annarborbear
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Last year, we were ranked 54th in the country in third down conversations at 40.9%. This year, we dropped to 97th place, at 35.5%.

People ranked below us are looking for new offensive coordinators.
OdontoBear66
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KoreAmBear said:

MilleniaBear said:

Nope. Saw him before the Big Game. He didnt even suit up.
He posted on his IG with Bryce Treggs in plain clothes with a beer in his hand the day of The Big Game. Didn't seem like a guy who was going to be even in a jersey standing on the sidelines. All signs point to his days of Cal football being over, which is a shame. After a season of this, I believe he is still the best QB of the three.
I am not sure that I have seen it announced that Bowers has "left" the team, other than speculation on BI.

If this is right it seems extremely unusual for him to be with a beer in hand in plain clothes on BG day. Had it been announced by Cal FB and I missed it, different story. But that is not my understanding. If what you post is true, I wish he had gone out with a bit more class, unless he has been wronged big time. Either I have missed a ton here on this story, or something is a lot more foul than we are led to believe. Regardless, good luck RB in whatever you do.
OaktownBear
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BearGoggles said:

dajo9 said:

71Bear said:

OaktownBear said:

71Bear said:

hotlanta said:

How did Bowers 2017 passing yardage compare to the 2018 Garbers/McIlwain passing yardage?
How did Cal's record in 2017 compare to 2018?

Bottom line - who gives a damn about QB yardage. The object of the game is to win not pile up stats.


I love ya, 71, but I can't get behind the logic in this reasoning. Our record is better because our defense went from middling to awesome. If our defense played each opponent last year as they did this year, we would have won four more games last year. Our offense scored 30 points five times last year. They scored 20 points four times this year. There were two major differences in Cal this year. The defense got dramatically better and the passing game got dramatically worse. The run game with almost the same personnel was less effective because everyone stacked the box because we couldn't throw.

I'll tell you why the passing yards matter. It is like a three point shooter who hits 40% by taking only the most wide open shots and going 8 for 20 on the season comparing to the guy who takes 5 shots a game. Garbers will not make a tough throw. If it isn't wide open, he pulls it down and runs, takes a sack, or throws it away. At some point, if you won't take a chance, the offense can't move or score. It is also telling that the OC goes into his shell when Garbers is in.

Your argument that he does enough to win while Bowers does enough to lose could apply equally to arguing Dilfer is better than Marino. There are 22 positions on the field. Sometimes the other 21 are just better. Garbers did exactly one thing enough to win. Nothing. In other words, he wasn't Brandon McIlwain. He didn't majorly screw up. (though this conversation would be going differently if WSU doesn't coug the pick six or Laird doesn't break through the line on fourth down after Garbers inexplicably slides against SC). Forrest could have done that. I could have done that. We have to stop being so scarred as fans that because the first QB is a turnover machine we think simply not turning the ball over without moving or scoring equals good. Bottom line, the offense moved and scored under Bowers. The offense moved and scored under McIlwain, but he gave up more than he got. The offense does zippo under Garbers.

Doesn't mean I'm down on Garbers as a prospect. He was just a frost. But crediting him with wins the defense single handedly achieved is silly. This year is one big lesson in how poor we are on offense generally and at QB specifically. He flat out wasn't and isn't ready.

I love the staff, but yanking all eggs out of the Bowers basket and going all in on Garbers and McIlwain was a huge mistake. I'm not saying Bowers wins the starting job (though I think he has been unquestionably the best of the three). But going into the Spring with Garbers the only option and no competition (or even back up) is frankly close to a disaster
Funny that you should mention Marino. He is my poster guy for stats over wins. The SF/Miami Super Bowl was the classic example of why being a complete quarterback requires more skills/attributes than simply piling up gaudy stats.

Forget Bowers for the moment, let's talk about Davis Webb - a guy who made all the plays except when it counted. He piled up a lot of big numbers but no one will remember him in the long run. Bowers was cut from the same cloth. Cal's only chance to reach bowl status this year was to bench Bowers and put the offense in the hands of Garbers. I said that before the season and nothing that transpired this season has changed my mind.

We knew Garbers would struggle at times. Heck, he is 19 years old. He is just getting started. Assuming he receives an upgrade in support (i.e., OLers and WR's), I suggest that we will see a big leap in his results next season. He certainly possesses the confidence and physical ability to be successful. I liken it to a hoops player who wants the ball at a critical juncture in a game as opposed to a guy who chooses to pass the ball at that same point in a game. Garbers wants the ball because he knows he will bury the shot. That is the guy I want leading the team.

Are you talking about Chase Garbers here or some other Garbers? Because Chase Garbers, repeatedly on 3rd down, didn't take the shot. Instead he panicked and ran before getting tackled before the 1st down marker.

Look, Garbers may improve. But if you called for Garbers over Bowers in 2018, you made a bad call and have been bailed out by Bowers disappearance and Cal's defense.

Are you talking about Ross Bowers here or some other Bowers? Because Ross Bowers repeatedly on 3rd down didn't make a positive play. Instead he held the ball too long, took bad sacks and threw interceptions into obvious double coverage. Completions and first down conversion would have been ideal; but running with the ball for a modest gain is far better than taking a sack like Bowers often did.

I was hoping Bowers would play and take the next step this past year. For reasons we still don't know, that didn't happen though obviously he was injured at some point. Garbers' play was uneven (much like Bowers the year before). But let's not be revisionist and pretend Bower's 3rd down play was better.




You are confusing good with better. He wasn't good. (Although he was in the okay range). He was clearly better.

And as far as I'm concerned, that isn't the whole point. There is no way in hell Garbers performance this year earned him the spot on the depth chart without earning it in Spring and Fall, especially if Bowers is back. For some reason there are some here that want to pretend it has. Bowers shouldn't have the spot either. They should be competing for it. (But I'm pretty sure Bower isn't coming back)
JimSox
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Why are we pretty sure Bowers isn't coming back? Wasn't he injured? Something about off season hand surgery?
BearGoggles
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Another Bear said:

BearGoggles said:

dajo9 said:

71Bear said:

OaktownBear said:

71Bear said:

hotlanta said:

How did Bowers 2017 passing yardage compare to the 2018 Garbers/McIlwain passing yardage?
How did Cal's record in 2017 compare to 2018?

Bottom line - who gives a damn about QB yardage. The object of the game is to win not pile up stats.


I love ya, 71, but I can't get behind the logic in this reasoning. Our record is better because our defense went from middling to awesome. If our defense played each opponent last year as they did this year, we would have won four more games last year. Our offense scored 30 points five times last year. They scored 20 points four times this year. There were two major differences in Cal this year. The defense got dramatically better and the passing game got dramatically worse. The run game with almost the same personnel was less effective because everyone stacked the box because we couldn't throw.

I'll tell you why the passing yards matter. It is like a three point shooter who hits 40% by taking only the most wide open shots and going 8 for 20 on the season comparing to the guy who takes 5 shots a game. Garbers will not make a tough throw. If it isn't wide open, he pulls it down and runs, takes a sack, or throws it away. At some point, if you won't take a chance, the offense can't move or score. It is also telling that the OC goes into his shell when Garbers is in.

Your argument that he does enough to win while Bowers does enough to lose could apply equally to arguing Dilfer is better than Marino. There are 22 positions on the field. Sometimes the other 21 are just better. Garbers did exactly one thing enough to win. Nothing. In other words, he wasn't Brandon McIlwain. He didn't majorly screw up. (though this conversation would be going differently if WSU doesn't coug the pick six or Laird doesn't break through the line on fourth down after Garbers inexplicably slides against SC). Forrest could have done that. I could have done that. We have to stop being so scarred as fans that because the first QB is a turnover machine we think simply not turning the ball over without moving or scoring equals good. Bottom line, the offense moved and scored under Bowers. The offense moved and scored under McIlwain, but he gave up more than he got. The offense does zippo under Garbers.

Doesn't mean I'm down on Garbers as a prospect. He was just a frost. But crediting him with wins the defense single handedly achieved is silly. This year is one big lesson in how poor we are on offense generally and at QB specifically. He flat out wasn't and isn't ready.

I love the staff, but yanking all eggs out of the Bowers basket and going all in on Garbers and McIlwain was a huge mistake. I'm not saying Bowers wins the starting job (though I think he has been unquestionably the best of the three). But going into the Spring with Garbers the only option and no competition (or even back up) is frankly close to a disaster
Funny that you should mention Marino. He is my poster guy for stats over wins. The SF/Miami Super Bowl was the classic example of why being a complete quarterback requires more skills/attributes than simply piling up gaudy stats.

Forget Bowers for the moment, let's talk about Davis Webb - a guy who made all the plays except when it counted. He piled up a lot of big numbers but no one will remember him in the long run. Bowers was cut from the same cloth. Cal's only chance to reach bowl status this year was to bench Bowers and put the offense in the hands of Garbers. I said that before the season and nothing that transpired this season has changed my mind.

We knew Garbers would struggle at times. Heck, he is 19 years old. He is just getting started. Assuming he receives an upgrade in support (i.e., OLers and WR's), I suggest that we will see a big leap in his results next season. He certainly possesses the confidence and physical ability to be successful. I liken it to a hoops player who wants the ball at a critical juncture in a game as opposed to a guy who chooses to pass the ball at that same point in a game. Garbers wants the ball because he knows he will bury the shot. That is the guy I want leading the team.

Are you talking about Chase Garbers here or some other Garbers? Because Chase Garbers, repeatedly on 3rd down, didn't take the shot. Instead he panicked and ran before getting tackled before the 1st down marker.

Look, Garbers may improve. But if you called for Garbers over Bowers in 2018, you made a bad call and have been bailed out by Bowers disappearance and Cal's defense.

Are you talking about Ross Bowers here or some other Bowers? Because Ross Bowers repeatedly on 3rd down didn't make a positive play. Instead he held the ball too long, took bad sacks and threw interceptions into obvious double coverage. Completions and first down conversion would have been ideal; but running with the ball for a modest gain is far better than taking a sack like Bowers often did.

I was hoping Bowers would play and take the next step this past year. For reasons we still don't know, that didn't happen though obviously he was injured at some point. Garbers' play was uneven (much like Bowers the year before). But let's not be revisionist and pretend Bower's 3rd down play was better.


Look up thread, to the green highlighted box, I believe #14.
Quote:

On 3rd and longs (10+ yards)

Bowers had a 134 passer rating, Garbers had an 84 rating.



Passer rating ignores sacks, fumbles, designed runs and scrambles. It also ignores context (i.e., whether the game is on the line vs. other scenarios).

By no means will I claim that Garbers is clearly better than Bowers or should have played over a healthy bowers. But Bower's passer rating on the third down is not the end of the story or (at least to me) all that persuasive.
BearGoggles
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OaktownBear said:

BearGoggles said:

dajo9 said:

71Bear said:

OaktownBear said:

71Bear said:

hotlanta said:

How did Bowers 2017 passing yardage compare to the 2018 Garbers/McIlwain passing yardage?
How did Cal's record in 2017 compare to 2018?

Bottom line - who gives a damn about QB yardage. The object of the game is to win not pile up stats.


I love ya, 71, but I can't get behind the logic in this reasoning. Our record is better because our defense went from middling to awesome. If our defense played each opponent last year as they did this year, we would have won four more games last year. Our offense scored 30 points five times last year. They scored 20 points four times this year. There were two major differences in Cal this year. The defense got dramatically better and the passing game got dramatically worse. The run game with almost the same personnel was less effective because everyone stacked the box because we couldn't throw.

I'll tell you why the passing yards matter. It is like a three point shooter who hits 40% by taking only the most wide open shots and going 8 for 20 on the season comparing to the guy who takes 5 shots a game. Garbers will not make a tough throw. If it isn't wide open, he pulls it down and runs, takes a sack, or throws it away. At some point, if you won't take a chance, the offense can't move or score. It is also telling that the OC goes into his shell when Garbers is in.

Your argument that he does enough to win while Bowers does enough to lose could apply equally to arguing Dilfer is better than Marino. There are 22 positions on the field. Sometimes the other 21 are just better. Garbers did exactly one thing enough to win. Nothing. In other words, he wasn't Brandon McIlwain. He didn't majorly screw up. (though this conversation would be going differently if WSU doesn't coug the pick six or Laird doesn't break through the line on fourth down after Garbers inexplicably slides against SC). Forrest could have done that. I could have done that. We have to stop being so scarred as fans that because the first QB is a turnover machine we think simply not turning the ball over without moving or scoring equals good. Bottom line, the offense moved and scored under Bowers. The offense moved and scored under McIlwain, but he gave up more than he got. The offense does zippo under Garbers.

Doesn't mean I'm down on Garbers as a prospect. He was just a frost. But crediting him with wins the defense single handedly achieved is silly. This year is one big lesson in how poor we are on offense generally and at QB specifically. He flat out wasn't and isn't ready.

I love the staff, but yanking all eggs out of the Bowers basket and going all in on Garbers and McIlwain was a huge mistake. I'm not saying Bowers wins the starting job (though I think he has been unquestionably the best of the three). But going into the Spring with Garbers the only option and no competition (or even back up) is frankly close to a disaster
Funny that you should mention Marino. He is my poster guy for stats over wins. The SF/Miami Super Bowl was the classic example of why being a complete quarterback requires more skills/attributes than simply piling up gaudy stats.

Forget Bowers for the moment, let's talk about Davis Webb - a guy who made all the plays except when it counted. He piled up a lot of big numbers but no one will remember him in the long run. Bowers was cut from the same cloth. Cal's only chance to reach bowl status this year was to bench Bowers and put the offense in the hands of Garbers. I said that before the season and nothing that transpired this season has changed my mind.

We knew Garbers would struggle at times. Heck, he is 19 years old. He is just getting started. Assuming he receives an upgrade in support (i.e., OLers and WR's), I suggest that we will see a big leap in his results next season. He certainly possesses the confidence and physical ability to be successful. I liken it to a hoops player who wants the ball at a critical juncture in a game as opposed to a guy who chooses to pass the ball at that same point in a game. Garbers wants the ball because he knows he will bury the shot. That is the guy I want leading the team.

Are you talking about Chase Garbers here or some other Garbers? Because Chase Garbers, repeatedly on 3rd down, didn't take the shot. Instead he panicked and ran before getting tackled before the 1st down marker.

Look, Garbers may improve. But if you called for Garbers over Bowers in 2018, you made a bad call and have been bailed out by Bowers disappearance and Cal's defense.

Are you talking about Ross Bowers here or some other Bowers? Because Ross Bowers repeatedly on 3rd down didn't make a positive play. Instead he held the ball too long, took bad sacks and threw interceptions into obvious double coverage. Completions and first down conversion would have been ideal; but running with the ball for a modest gain is far better than taking a sack like Bowers often did.

I was hoping Bowers would play and take the next step this past year. For reasons we still don't know, that didn't happen though obviously he was injured at some point. Garbers' play was uneven (much like Bowers the year before). But let's not be revisionist and pretend Bower's 3rd down play was better.




You are confusing good with better. He wasn't good. (Although he was in the okay range). He was clearly better.

And as far as I'm concerned, that isn't the whole point. There is no way in hell Garbers performance this year earned him the spot on the depth chart without earning it in Spring and Fall, especially if Bowers is back. For some reason there are some here that want to pretend it has. Bowers shouldn't have the spot either. They should be competing for it. (But I'm pretty sure Bower isn't coming back)
Too many pronouns in your response - not sure who you think was better. In any event, I agree Garbers performance this year has earned him nothing. Bowers won't be back, but I hope and expect there is competition from a true freshman qb and grad transfer.

dajo9
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BearGoggles said:

Another Bear said:

BearGoggles said:

dajo9 said:

71Bear said:

OaktownBear said:

71Bear said:

hotlanta said:

How did Bowers 2017 passing yardage compare to the 2018 Garbers/McIlwain passing yardage?
How did Cal's record in 2017 compare to 2018?

Bottom line - who gives a damn about QB yardage. The object of the game is to win not pile up stats.


I love ya, 71, but I can't get behind the logic in this reasoning. Our record is better because our defense went from middling to awesome. If our defense played each opponent last year as they did this year, we would have won four more games last year. Our offense scored 30 points five times last year. They scored 20 points four times this year. There were two major differences in Cal this year. The defense got dramatically better and the passing game got dramatically worse. The run game with almost the same personnel was less effective because everyone stacked the box because we couldn't throw.

I'll tell you why the passing yards matter. It is like a three point shooter who hits 40% by taking only the most wide open shots and going 8 for 20 on the season comparing to the guy who takes 5 shots a game. Garbers will not make a tough throw. If it isn't wide open, he pulls it down and runs, takes a sack, or throws it away. At some point, if you won't take a chance, the offense can't move or score. It is also telling that the OC goes into his shell when Garbers is in.

Your argument that he does enough to win while Bowers does enough to lose could apply equally to arguing Dilfer is better than Marino. There are 22 positions on the field. Sometimes the other 21 are just better. Garbers did exactly one thing enough to win. Nothing. In other words, he wasn't Brandon McIlwain. He didn't majorly screw up. (though this conversation would be going differently if WSU doesn't coug the pick six or Laird doesn't break through the line on fourth down after Garbers inexplicably slides against SC). Forrest could have done that. I could have done that. We have to stop being so scarred as fans that because the first QB is a turnover machine we think simply not turning the ball over without moving or scoring equals good. Bottom line, the offense moved and scored under Bowers. The offense moved and scored under McIlwain, but he gave up more than he got. The offense does zippo under Garbers.

Doesn't mean I'm down on Garbers as a prospect. He was just a frost. But crediting him with wins the defense single handedly achieved is silly. This year is one big lesson in how poor we are on offense generally and at QB specifically. He flat out wasn't and isn't ready.

I love the staff, but yanking all eggs out of the Bowers basket and going all in on Garbers and McIlwain was a huge mistake. I'm not saying Bowers wins the starting job (though I think he has been unquestionably the best of the three). But going into the Spring with Garbers the only option and no competition (or even back up) is frankly close to a disaster
Funny that you should mention Marino. He is my poster guy for stats over wins. The SF/Miami Super Bowl was the classic example of why being a complete quarterback requires more skills/attributes than simply piling up gaudy stats.

Forget Bowers for the moment, let's talk about Davis Webb - a guy who made all the plays except when it counted. He piled up a lot of big numbers but no one will remember him in the long run. Bowers was cut from the same cloth. Cal's only chance to reach bowl status this year was to bench Bowers and put the offense in the hands of Garbers. I said that before the season and nothing that transpired this season has changed my mind.

We knew Garbers would struggle at times. Heck, he is 19 years old. He is just getting started. Assuming he receives an upgrade in support (i.e., OLers and WR's), I suggest that we will see a big leap in his results next season. He certainly possesses the confidence and physical ability to be successful. I liken it to a hoops player who wants the ball at a critical juncture in a game as opposed to a guy who chooses to pass the ball at that same point in a game. Garbers wants the ball because he knows he will bury the shot. That is the guy I want leading the team.

Are you talking about Chase Garbers here or some other Garbers? Because Chase Garbers, repeatedly on 3rd down, didn't take the shot. Instead he panicked and ran before getting tackled before the 1st down marker.

Look, Garbers may improve. But if you called for Garbers over Bowers in 2018, you made a bad call and have been bailed out by Bowers disappearance and Cal's defense.

Are you talking about Ross Bowers here or some other Bowers? Because Ross Bowers repeatedly on 3rd down didn't make a positive play. Instead he held the ball too long, took bad sacks and threw interceptions into obvious double coverage. Completions and first down conversion would have been ideal; but running with the ball for a modest gain is far better than taking a sack like Bowers often did.

I was hoping Bowers would play and take the next step this past year. For reasons we still don't know, that didn't happen though obviously he was injured at some point. Garbers' play was uneven (much like Bowers the year before). But let's not be revisionist and pretend Bower's 3rd down play was better.


Look up thread, to the green highlighted box, I believe #14.
Quote:

On 3rd and longs (10+ yards)

Bowers had a 134 passer rating, Garbers had an 84 rating.



Passer rating ignores sacks, fumbles, designed runs and scrambles. It also ignores context (i.e., whether the game is on the line vs. other scenarios).

By no means will I claim that Garbers is clearly better than Bowers or should have played over a healthy bowers. But Bower's passer rating on the third down is not the end of the story or (at least to me) all that persuasive.



3rd down passer rating may not be the end of the story but 3rd down was worth you writing a whole paragraph above. 50 points of passer rating equates to a helluva lot of fumbles, sacks, and rushing yards - none of which you back up with data.
Yogi Bear
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OaktownBear said:


The offense moved and scored under McIlwain, but he gave up more than he got.
https://calbears.com/boxscore.aspx?id=19799&path=football

Tied for 2nd from season low in offensive TD's for a game (Washington was worst with zero offensive TD's). And he only produced 17 points in his other start.

The myth that the offense scored more with McIlwain is a myth that needs to die.
BearGoggles
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dajo9 said:

BearGoggles said:

Another Bear said:

BearGoggles said:

dajo9 said:

71Bear said:

OaktownBear said:

71Bear said:

hotlanta said:

How did Bowers 2017 passing yardage compare to the 2018 Garbers/McIlwain passing yardage?
How did Cal's record in 2017 compare to 2018?

Bottom line - who gives a damn about QB yardage. The object of the game is to win not pile up stats.


I love ya, 71, but I can't get behind the logic in this reasoning. Our record is better because our defense went from middling to awesome. If our defense played each opponent last year as they did this year, we would have won four more games last year. Our offense scored 30 points five times last year. They scored 20 points four times this year. There were two major differences in Cal this year. The defense got dramatically better and the passing game got dramatically worse. The run game with almost the same personnel was less effective because everyone stacked the box because we couldn't throw.

I'll tell you why the passing yards matter. It is like a three point shooter who hits 40% by taking only the most wide open shots and going 8 for 20 on the season comparing to the guy who takes 5 shots a game. Garbers will not make a tough throw. If it isn't wide open, he pulls it down and runs, takes a sack, or throws it away. At some point, if you won't take a chance, the offense can't move or score. It is also telling that the OC goes into his shell when Garbers is in.

Your argument that he does enough to win while Bowers does enough to lose could apply equally to arguing Dilfer is better than Marino. There are 22 positions on the field. Sometimes the other 21 are just better. Garbers did exactly one thing enough to win. Nothing. In other words, he wasn't Brandon McIlwain. He didn't majorly screw up. (though this conversation would be going differently if WSU doesn't coug the pick six or Laird doesn't break through the line on fourth down after Garbers inexplicably slides against SC). Forrest could have done that. I could have done that. We have to stop being so scarred as fans that because the first QB is a turnover machine we think simply not turning the ball over without moving or scoring equals good. Bottom line, the offense moved and scored under Bowers. The offense moved and scored under McIlwain, but he gave up more than he got. The offense does zippo under Garbers.

Doesn't mean I'm down on Garbers as a prospect. He was just a frost. But crediting him with wins the defense single handedly achieved is silly. This year is one big lesson in how poor we are on offense generally and at QB specifically. He flat out wasn't and isn't ready.

I love the staff, but yanking all eggs out of the Bowers basket and going all in on Garbers and McIlwain was a huge mistake. I'm not saying Bowers wins the starting job (though I think he has been unquestionably the best of the three). But going into the Spring with Garbers the only option and no competition (or even back up) is frankly close to a disaster
Funny that you should mention Marino. He is my poster guy for stats over wins. The SF/Miami Super Bowl was the classic example of why being a complete quarterback requires more skills/attributes than simply piling up gaudy stats.

Forget Bowers for the moment, let's talk about Davis Webb - a guy who made all the plays except when it counted. He piled up a lot of big numbers but no one will remember him in the long run. Bowers was cut from the same cloth. Cal's only chance to reach bowl status this year was to bench Bowers and put the offense in the hands of Garbers. I said that before the season and nothing that transpired this season has changed my mind.

We knew Garbers would struggle at times. Heck, he is 19 years old. He is just getting started. Assuming he receives an upgrade in support (i.e., OLers and WR's), I suggest that we will see a big leap in his results next season. He certainly possesses the confidence and physical ability to be successful. I liken it to a hoops player who wants the ball at a critical juncture in a game as opposed to a guy who chooses to pass the ball at that same point in a game. Garbers wants the ball because he knows he will bury the shot. That is the guy I want leading the team.

Are you talking about Chase Garbers here or some other Garbers? Because Chase Garbers, repeatedly on 3rd down, didn't take the shot. Instead he panicked and ran before getting tackled before the 1st down marker.

Look, Garbers may improve. But if you called for Garbers over Bowers in 2018, you made a bad call and have been bailed out by Bowers disappearance and Cal's defense.

Are you talking about Ross Bowers here or some other Bowers? Because Ross Bowers repeatedly on 3rd down didn't make a positive play. Instead he held the ball too long, took bad sacks and threw interceptions into obvious double coverage. Completions and first down conversion would have been ideal; but running with the ball for a modest gain is far better than taking a sack like Bowers often did.

I was hoping Bowers would play and take the next step this past year. For reasons we still don't know, that didn't happen though obviously he was injured at some point. Garbers' play was uneven (much like Bowers the year before). But let's not be revisionist and pretend Bower's 3rd down play was better.


Look up thread, to the green highlighted box, I believe #14.
Quote:

On 3rd and longs (10+ yards)

Bowers had a 134 passer rating, Garbers had an 84 rating.



Passer rating ignores sacks, fumbles, designed runs and scrambles. It also ignores context (i.e., whether the game is on the line vs. other scenarios).

By no means will I claim that Garbers is clearly better than Bowers or should have played over a healthy bowers. But Bower's passer rating on the third down is not the end of the story or (at least to me) all that persuasive.



3rd down passer rating may not be the end of the story but 3rd down was worth you writing a whole paragraph above. 50 points of passer rating equates to a helluva lot of fumbles, sacks, and rushing yards - none of which you back up with data.
The overall passer rating for Bowers 2017 v Garbers 2018 was about even. So if you ascribe great significance to that stat (which I don't) then its hard to argue there is much difference between the two. Having a higher passing rating on 3rd and long (without any analysis of whether you actually converted first downs on those plays) is literally meaningless.

Here is one big difference. Bowers rushed 60 times for -142 yards (obviously negative due to sacks being counted as rushing yards). Garbers rushed 90 times for +398 yards.

There are so many variables (different years, different OL/WR) that you can't conclude much when comparing the two players. That is why I said they would/should both be in competition for the job next year if Bowers weren't leaving.




OaktownBear
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Yogi Bear said:

OaktownBear said:


The offense moved and scored under McIlwain, but he gave up more than he got.
https://calbears.com/boxscore.aspx?id=19799&path=football

Tied for 2nd from season low in offensive TD's for a game (Washington was worst with zero offensive TD's). And he only produced 17 points in his other start.

The myth that the offense scored more with McIlwain is a myth that needs to die.


First of all, I should have just said "moved". That was what I meant. Don't know why I said scored. His turnovers certainly impacted scoring. I don't want him to start again, but my point was the offense could move. Just the only one that moved it would make critical errors that nullified the point of moving

That said 17 points by the offense is a veritable onslaught of scoring by our offense compared to most of the year.
OaktownBear
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BearGoggles said:

OaktownBear said:

BearGoggles said:

dajo9 said:

71Bear said:

OaktownBear said:

71Bear said:

hotlanta said:

How did Bowers 2017 passing yardage compare to the 2018 Garbers/McIlwain passing yardage?
How did Cal's record in 2017 compare to 2018?

Bottom line - who gives a damn about QB yardage. The object of the game is to win not pile up stats.


I love ya, 71, but I can't get behind the logic in this reasoning. Our record is better because our defense went from middling to awesome. If our defense played each opponent last year as they did this year, we would have won four more games last year. Our offense scored 30 points five times last year. They scored 20 points four times this year. There were two major differences in Cal this year. The defense got dramatically better and the passing game got dramatically worse. The run game with almost the same personnel was less effective because everyone stacked the box because we couldn't throw.

I'll tell you why the passing yards matter. It is like a three point shooter who hits 40% by taking only the most wide open shots and going 8 for 20 on the season comparing to the guy who takes 5 shots a game. Garbers will not make a tough throw. If it isn't wide open, he pulls it down and runs, takes a sack, or throws it away. At some point, if you won't take a chance, the offense can't move or score. It is also telling that the OC goes into his shell when Garbers is in.

Your argument that he does enough to win while Bowers does enough to lose could apply equally to arguing Dilfer is better than Marino. There are 22 positions on the field. Sometimes the other 21 are just better. Garbers did exactly one thing enough to win. Nothing. In other words, he wasn't Brandon McIlwain. He didn't majorly screw up. (though this conversation would be going differently if WSU doesn't coug the pick six or Laird doesn't break through the line on fourth down after Garbers inexplicably slides against SC). Forrest could have done that. I could have done that. We have to stop being so scarred as fans that because the first QB is a turnover machine we think simply not turning the ball over without moving or scoring equals good. Bottom line, the offense moved and scored under Bowers. The offense moved and scored under McIlwain, but he gave up more than he got. The offense does zippo under Garbers.

Doesn't mean I'm down on Garbers as a prospect. He was just a frost. But crediting him with wins the defense single handedly achieved is silly. This year is one big lesson in how poor we are on offense generally and at QB specifically. He flat out wasn't and isn't ready.

I love the staff, but yanking all eggs out of the Bowers basket and going all in on Garbers and McIlwain was a huge mistake. I'm not saying Bowers wins the starting job (though I think he has been unquestionably the best of the three). But going into the Spring with Garbers the only option and no competition (or even back up) is frankly close to a disaster
Funny that you should mention Marino. He is my poster guy for stats over wins. The SF/Miami Super Bowl was the classic example of why being a complete quarterback requires more skills/attributes than simply piling up gaudy stats.

Forget Bowers for the moment, let's talk about Davis Webb - a guy who made all the plays except when it counted. He piled up a lot of big numbers but no one will remember him in the long run. Bowers was cut from the same cloth. Cal's only chance to reach bowl status this year was to bench Bowers and put the offense in the hands of Garbers. I said that before the season and nothing that transpired this season has changed my mind.

We knew Garbers would struggle at times. Heck, he is 19 years old. He is just getting started. Assuming he receives an upgrade in support (i.e., OLers and WR's), I suggest that we will see a big leap in his results next season. He certainly possesses the confidence and physical ability to be successful. I liken it to a hoops player who wants the ball at a critical juncture in a game as opposed to a guy who chooses to pass the ball at that same point in a game. Garbers wants the ball because he knows he will bury the shot. That is the guy I want leading the team.

Are you talking about Chase Garbers here or some other Garbers? Because Chase Garbers, repeatedly on 3rd down, didn't take the shot. Instead he panicked and ran before getting tackled before the 1st down marker.

Look, Garbers may improve. But if you called for Garbers over Bowers in 2018, you made a bad call and have been bailed out by Bowers disappearance and Cal's defense.

Are you talking about Ross Bowers here or some other Bowers? Because Ross Bowers repeatedly on 3rd down didn't make a positive play. Instead he held the ball too long, took bad sacks and threw interceptions into obvious double coverage. Completions and first down conversion would have been ideal; but running with the ball for a modest gain is far better than taking a sack like Bowers often did.

I was hoping Bowers would play and take the next step this past year. For reasons we still don't know, that didn't happen though obviously he was injured at some point. Garbers' play was uneven (much like Bowers the year before). But let's not be revisionist and pretend Bower's 3rd down play was better.




You are confusing good with better. He wasn't good. (Although he was in the okay range). He was clearly better.

And as far as I'm concerned, that isn't the whole point. There is no way in hell Garbers performance this year earned him the spot on the depth chart without earning it in Spring and Fall, especially if Bowers is back. For some reason there are some here that want to pretend it has. Bowers shouldn't have the spot either. They should be competing for it. (But I'm pretty sure Bower isn't coming back)
Too many pronouns in your response - not sure who you think was better. In any event, I agree Garbers performance this year has earned him nothing. Bowers won't be back, but I hope and expect there is competition from a true freshman qb and grad transfer.




To clarify, you said not to pretend that Bowers third down play was better. But his third down play was better. That is demonstrated by third down conversion rate. I don't like QB rating generally, But it is one thing to say 130 might not be better than 120 under circumstances, but 134 to 84 is not a difference that any set of circumstances can overcome.

The point about third downs came in response to 71Bears argument that Garbers was some fearless clutch player and Bowers wasn't, so it was making a narrow point about their respective skills, not about their play overall.
calumnus
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BearGoggles said:

dajo9 said:

BearGoggles said:

Another Bear said:

BearGoggles said:

dajo9 said:

71Bear said:

OaktownBear said:

71Bear said:

hotlanta said:

How did Bowers 2017 passing yardage compare to the 2018 Garbers/McIlwain passing yardage?
How did Cal's record in 2017 compare to 2018?

Bottom line - who gives a damn about QB yardage. The object of the game is to win not pile up stats.


I love ya, 71, but I can't get behind the logic in this reasoning. Our record is better because our defense went from middling to awesome. If our defense played each opponent last year as they did this year, we would have won four more games last year. Our offense scored 30 points five times last year. They scored 20 points four times this year. There were two major differences in Cal this year. The defense got dramatically better and the passing game got dramatically worse. The run game with almost the same personnel was less effective because everyone stacked the box because we couldn't throw.

I'll tell you why the passing yards matter. It is like a three point shooter who hits 40% by taking only the most wide open shots and going 8 for 20 on the season comparing to the guy who takes 5 shots a game. Garbers will not make a tough throw. If it isn't wide open, he pulls it down and runs, takes a sack, or throws it away. At some point, if you won't take a chance, the offense can't move or score. It is also telling that the OC goes into his shell when Garbers is in.

Your argument that he does enough to win while Bowers does enough to lose could apply equally to arguing Dilfer is better than Marino. There are 22 positions on the field. Sometimes the other 21 are just better. Garbers did exactly one thing enough to win. Nothing. In other words, he wasn't Brandon McIlwain. He didn't majorly screw up. (though this conversation would be going differently if WSU doesn't coug the pick six or Laird doesn't break through the line on fourth down after Garbers inexplicably slides against SC). Forrest could have done that. I could have done that. We have to stop being so scarred as fans that because the first QB is a turnover machine we think simply not turning the ball over without moving or scoring equals good. Bottom line, the offense moved and scored under Bowers. The offense moved and scored under McIlwain, but he gave up more than he got. The offense does zippo under Garbers.

Doesn't mean I'm down on Garbers as a prospect. He was just a frost. But crediting him with wins the defense single handedly achieved is silly. This year is one big lesson in how poor we are on offense generally and at QB specifically. He flat out wasn't and isn't ready.

I love the staff, but yanking all eggs out of the Bowers basket and going all in on Garbers and McIlwain was a huge mistake. I'm not saying Bowers wins the starting job (though I think he has been unquestionably the best of the three). But going into the Spring with Garbers the only option and no competition (or even back up) is frankly close to a disaster
Funny that you should mention Marino. He is my poster guy for stats over wins. The SF/Miami Super Bowl was the classic example of why being a complete quarterback requires more skills/attributes than simply piling up gaudy stats.

Forget Bowers for the moment, let's talk about Davis Webb - a guy who made all the plays except when it counted. He piled up a lot of big numbers but no one will remember him in the long run. Bowers was cut from the same cloth. Cal's only chance to reach bowl status this year was to bench Bowers and put the offense in the hands of Garbers. I said that before the season and nothing that transpired this season has changed my mind.

We knew Garbers would struggle at times. Heck, he is 19 years old. He is just getting started. Assuming he receives an upgrade in support (i.e., OLers and WR's), I suggest that we will see a big leap in his results next season. He certainly possesses the confidence and physical ability to be successful. I liken it to a hoops player who wants the ball at a critical juncture in a game as opposed to a guy who chooses to pass the ball at that same point in a game. Garbers wants the ball because he knows he will bury the shot. That is the guy I want leading the team.

Are you talking about Chase Garbers here or some other Garbers? Because Chase Garbers, repeatedly on 3rd down, didn't take the shot. Instead he panicked and ran before getting tackled before the 1st down marker.

Look, Garbers may improve. But if you called for Garbers over Bowers in 2018, you made a bad call and have been bailed out by Bowers disappearance and Cal's defense.

Are you talking about Ross Bowers here or some other Bowers? Because Ross Bowers repeatedly on 3rd down didn't make a positive play. Instead he held the ball too long, took bad sacks and threw interceptions into obvious double coverage. Completions and first down conversion would have been ideal; but running with the ball for a modest gain is far better than taking a sack like Bowers often did.

I was hoping Bowers would play and take the next step this past year. For reasons we still don't know, that didn't happen though obviously he was injured at some point. Garbers' play was uneven (much like Bowers the year before). But let's not be revisionist and pretend Bower's 3rd down play was better.


Look up thread, to the green highlighted box, I believe #14.
Quote:

On 3rd and longs (10+ yards)

Bowers had a 134 passer rating, Garbers had an 84 rating.



Passer rating ignores sacks, fumbles, designed runs and scrambles. It also ignores context (i.e., whether the game is on the line vs. other scenarios).

By no means will I claim that Garbers is clearly better than Bowers or should have played over a healthy bowers. But Bower's passer rating on the third down is not the end of the story or (at least to me) all that persuasive.



3rd down passer rating may not be the end of the story but 3rd down was worth you writing a whole paragraph above. 50 points of passer rating equates to a helluva lot of fumbles, sacks, and rushing yards - none of which you back up with data.
The overall passer rating for Bowers 2017 v Garbers 2018 was about even. So if you ascribe great significance to that stat (which I don't) then its hard to argue there is much difference between the two. Having a higher passing rating on 3rd and long (without any analysis of whether you actually converted first downs on those plays) is literally meaningless.

Here is one big difference. Bowers rushed 60 times for -142 yards (obviously negative due to sacks being counted as rushing yards). Garbers rushed 90 times for +398 yards.

There are so many variables (different years, different OL/WR) that you can't conclude much when comparing the two players. That is why I said they would/should both be in competition for the job next year if Bowers weren't leaving.







Bowers better 3rd down (or third and long?) passer rating might be attributed to:
1) Wharton and Noa hanging on to tough catches last year and Noa being out so much and everyone having dropsies this year.
2) Garbers throwing the ball away or trying to force something often on 3rd down and Bowers too often taking a big sack. In that case Bowers would end up with the bettter passer rating, but that is not actually better play.

Garbers' ability to avoid sacks and run for positive yardage is a huge advantage on a team that cannot maintain protection and whose receivers are rarely open (and too often drop the ball when they are). That does not show up in passing stats. It is scary to think how bad we would have been without that.

BearGoggles
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OaktownBear said:

BearGoggles said:

OaktownBear said:

BearGoggles said:

dajo9 said:

71Bear said:

OaktownBear said:

71Bear said:

hotlanta said:

How did Bowers 2017 passing yardage compare to the 2018 Garbers/McIlwain passing yardage?
How did Cal's record in 2017 compare to 2018?

Bottom line - who gives a damn about QB yardage. The object of the game is to win not pile up stats.


I love ya, 71, but I can't get behind the logic in this reasoning. Our record is better because our defense went from middling to awesome. If our defense played each opponent last year as they did this year, we would have won four more games last year. Our offense scored 30 points five times last year. They scored 20 points four times this year. There were two major differences in Cal this year. The defense got dramatically better and the passing game got dramatically worse. The run game with almost the same personnel was less effective because everyone stacked the box because we couldn't throw.

I'll tell you why the passing yards matter. It is like a three point shooter who hits 40% by taking only the most wide open shots and going 8 for 20 on the season comparing to the guy who takes 5 shots a game. Garbers will not make a tough throw. If it isn't wide open, he pulls it down and runs, takes a sack, or throws it away. At some point, if you won't take a chance, the offense can't move or score. It is also telling that the OC goes into his shell when Garbers is in.

Your argument that he does enough to win while Bowers does enough to lose could apply equally to arguing Dilfer is better than Marino. There are 22 positions on the field. Sometimes the other 21 are just better. Garbers did exactly one thing enough to win. Nothing. In other words, he wasn't Brandon McIlwain. He didn't majorly screw up. (though this conversation would be going differently if WSU doesn't coug the pick six or Laird doesn't break through the line on fourth down after Garbers inexplicably slides against SC). Forrest could have done that. I could have done that. We have to stop being so scarred as fans that because the first QB is a turnover machine we think simply not turning the ball over without moving or scoring equals good. Bottom line, the offense moved and scored under Bowers. The offense moved and scored under McIlwain, but he gave up more than he got. The offense does zippo under Garbers.

Doesn't mean I'm down on Garbers as a prospect. He was just a frost. But crediting him with wins the defense single handedly achieved is silly. This year is one big lesson in how poor we are on offense generally and at QB specifically. He flat out wasn't and isn't ready.

I love the staff, but yanking all eggs out of the Bowers basket and going all in on Garbers and McIlwain was a huge mistake. I'm not saying Bowers wins the starting job (though I think he has been unquestionably the best of the three). But going into the Spring with Garbers the only option and no competition (or even back up) is frankly close to a disaster
Funny that you should mention Marino. He is my poster guy for stats over wins. The SF/Miami Super Bowl was the classic example of why being a complete quarterback requires more skills/attributes than simply piling up gaudy stats.

Forget Bowers for the moment, let's talk about Davis Webb - a guy who made all the plays except when it counted. He piled up a lot of big numbers but no one will remember him in the long run. Bowers was cut from the same cloth. Cal's only chance to reach bowl status this year was to bench Bowers and put the offense in the hands of Garbers. I said that before the season and nothing that transpired this season has changed my mind.

We knew Garbers would struggle at times. Heck, he is 19 years old. He is just getting started. Assuming he receives an upgrade in support (i.e., OLers and WR's), I suggest that we will see a big leap in his results next season. He certainly possesses the confidence and physical ability to be successful. I liken it to a hoops player who wants the ball at a critical juncture in a game as opposed to a guy who chooses to pass the ball at that same point in a game. Garbers wants the ball because he knows he will bury the shot. That is the guy I want leading the team.

Are you talking about Chase Garbers here or some other Garbers? Because Chase Garbers, repeatedly on 3rd down, didn't take the shot. Instead he panicked and ran before getting tackled before the 1st down marker.

Look, Garbers may improve. But if you called for Garbers over Bowers in 2018, you made a bad call and have been bailed out by Bowers disappearance and Cal's defense.

Are you talking about Ross Bowers here or some other Bowers? Because Ross Bowers repeatedly on 3rd down didn't make a positive play. Instead he held the ball too long, took bad sacks and threw interceptions into obvious double coverage. Completions and first down conversion would have been ideal; but running with the ball for a modest gain is far better than taking a sack like Bowers often did.

I was hoping Bowers would play and take the next step this past year. For reasons we still don't know, that didn't happen though obviously he was injured at some point. Garbers' play was uneven (much like Bowers the year before). But let's not be revisionist and pretend Bower's 3rd down play was better.




You are confusing good with better. He wasn't good. (Although he was in the okay range). He was clearly better.

And as far as I'm concerned, that isn't the whole point. There is no way in hell Garbers performance this year earned him the spot on the depth chart without earning it in Spring and Fall, especially if Bowers is back. For some reason there are some here that want to pretend it has. Bowers shouldn't have the spot either. They should be competing for it. (But I'm pretty sure Bower isn't coming back)
Too many pronouns in your response - not sure who you think was better. In any event, I agree Garbers performance this year has earned him nothing. Bowers won't be back, but I hope and expect there is competition from a true freshman qb and grad transfer.




To clarify, you said not to pretend that Bowers third down play was better. But his third down play was better. That is demonstrated by third down conversion rate. I don't like QB rating generally, But it is one thing to say 130 might not be better than 120 under circumstances, but 134 to 84 is not a difference that any set of circumstances can overcome.

The point about third downs came in response to 71Bears argument that Garbers was some fearless clutch player and Bowers wasn't, so it was making a narrow point about their respective skills, not about their play overall.
Bowers third down play was only better if you use QB rating as the only metric. Your argument is circular because you are assuming that QBR is roughly equivalent to (or a reasonable metric of) the quality of QB play. QBR is flawed for the reasons I already stated (failure to take into account sacks, time of game, etc.). Most notably, Garbers gets no QBR credit for his running yardage.

We are comparing different years with different personnel, different schedules, and lots of other variables. Bowers played with a dominant/healthy Laird, better (or healthier) wrs, and arguably an easier pathway (he was the clear starter). Garbers played with a lesser running game and without the benefit of taking first string reps for much of the year. QBR takes none of this into account.

The bottom line is that neither player has shown that they are clearly better overall or in a specific scenario such as third down. If Bowers were willing to come back (which by all accounts he is not), I would have no problem having him compete for and possibly be the starter. But his QBR on third down in 2017 is largely irrelevant.

OaktownBear
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BearGoggles said:

OaktownBear said:

BearGoggles said:

OaktownBear said:

BearGoggles said:

dajo9 said:

71Bear said:

OaktownBear said:

71Bear said:

hotlanta said:

How did Bowers 2017 passing yardage compare to the 2018 Garbers/McIlwain passing yardage?
How did Cal's record in 2017 compare to 2018?

Bottom line - who gives a damn about QB yardage. The object of the game is to win not pile up stats.


I love ya, 71, but I can't get behind the logic in this reasoning. Our record is better because our defense went from middling to awesome. If our defense played each opponent last year as they did this year, we would have won four more games last year. Our offense scored 30 points five times last year. They scored 20 points four times this year. There were two major differences in Cal this year. The defense got dramatically better and the passing game got dramatically worse. The run game with almost the same personnel was less effective because everyone stacked the box because we couldn't throw.

I'll tell you why the passing yards matter. It is like a three point shooter who hits 40% by taking only the most wide open shots and going 8 for 20 on the season comparing to the guy who takes 5 shots a game. Garbers will not make a tough throw. If it isn't wide open, he pulls it down and runs, takes a sack, or throws it away. At some point, if you won't take a chance, the offense can't move or score. It is also telling that the OC goes into his shell when Garbers is in.

Your argument that he does enough to win while Bowers does enough to lose could apply equally to arguing Dilfer is better than Marino. There are 22 positions on the field. Sometimes the other 21 are just better. Garbers did exactly one thing enough to win. Nothing. In other words, he wasn't Brandon McIlwain. He didn't majorly screw up. (though this conversation would be going differently if WSU doesn't coug the pick six or Laird doesn't break through the line on fourth down after Garbers inexplicably slides against SC). Forrest could have done that. I could have done that. We have to stop being so scarred as fans that because the first QB is a turnover machine we think simply not turning the ball over without moving or scoring equals good. Bottom line, the offense moved and scored under Bowers. The offense moved and scored under McIlwain, but he gave up more than he got. The offense does zippo under Garbers.

Doesn't mean I'm down on Garbers as a prospect. He was just a frost. But crediting him with wins the defense single handedly achieved is silly. This year is one big lesson in how poor we are on offense generally and at QB specifically. He flat out wasn't and isn't ready.

I love the staff, but yanking all eggs out of the Bowers basket and going all in on Garbers and McIlwain was a huge mistake. I'm not saying Bowers wins the starting job (though I think he has been unquestionably the best of the three). But going into the Spring with Garbers the only option and no competition (or even back up) is frankly close to a disaster
Funny that you should mention Marino. He is my poster guy for stats over wins. The SF/Miami Super Bowl was the classic example of why being a complete quarterback requires more skills/attributes than simply piling up gaudy stats.

Forget Bowers for the moment, let's talk about Davis Webb - a guy who made all the plays except when it counted. He piled up a lot of big numbers but no one will remember him in the long run. Bowers was cut from the same cloth. Cal's only chance to reach bowl status this year was to bench Bowers and put the offense in the hands of Garbers. I said that before the season and nothing that transpired this season has changed my mind.

We knew Garbers would struggle at times. Heck, he is 19 years old. He is just getting started. Assuming he receives an upgrade in support (i.e., OLers and WR's), I suggest that we will see a big leap in his results next season. He certainly possesses the confidence and physical ability to be successful. I liken it to a hoops player who wants the ball at a critical juncture in a game as opposed to a guy who chooses to pass the ball at that same point in a game. Garbers wants the ball because he knows he will bury the shot. That is the guy I want leading the team.

Are you talking about Chase Garbers here or some other Garbers? Because Chase Garbers, repeatedly on 3rd down, didn't take the shot. Instead he panicked and ran before getting tackled before the 1st down marker.

Look, Garbers may improve. But if you called for Garbers over Bowers in 2018, you made a bad call and have been bailed out by Bowers disappearance and Cal's defense.

Are you talking about Ross Bowers here or some other Bowers? Because Ross Bowers repeatedly on 3rd down didn't make a positive play. Instead he held the ball too long, took bad sacks and threw interceptions into obvious double coverage. Completions and first down conversion would have been ideal; but running with the ball for a modest gain is far better than taking a sack like Bowers often did.

I was hoping Bowers would play and take the next step this past year. For reasons we still don't know, that didn't happen though obviously he was injured at some point. Garbers' play was uneven (much like Bowers the year before). But let's not be revisionist and pretend Bower's 3rd down play was better.




You are confusing good with better. He wasn't good. (Although he was in the okay range). He was clearly better.

And as far as I'm concerned, that isn't the whole point. There is no way in hell Garbers performance this year earned him the spot on the depth chart without earning it in Spring and Fall, especially if Bowers is back. For some reason there are some here that want to pretend it has. Bowers shouldn't have the spot either. They should be competing for it. (But I'm pretty sure Bower isn't coming back)
Too many pronouns in your response - not sure who you think was better. In any event, I agree Garbers performance this year has earned him nothing. Bowers won't be back, but I hope and expect there is competition from a true freshman qb and grad transfer.




To clarify, you said not to pretend that Bowers third down play was better. But his third down play was better. That is demonstrated by third down conversion rate. I don't like QB rating generally, But it is one thing to say 130 might not be better than 120 under circumstances, but 134 to 84 is not a difference that any set of circumstances can overcome.

The point about third downs came in response to 71Bears argument that Garbers was some fearless clutch player and Bowers wasn't, so it was making a narrow point about their respective skills, not about their play overall.
Bowers third down play was only better if you use QB rating as the only metric. Your argument is circular because you are assuming that QBR is roughly equivalent to (or a reasonable metric of) the quality of QB play. QBR is flawed for the reasons I already stated (failure to take into account sacks, time of game, etc.). Most notably, Garbers gets no QBR credit for his running yardage.

We are comparing different years with different personnel, different schedules, and lots of other variables. Bowers played with a dominant/healthy Laird, better (or healthier) wrs, and arguably an easier pathway (he was the clear starter). Garbers played with a lesser running game and without the benefit of taking first string reps for much of the year. QBR takes none of this into account.

The bottom line is that neither player has shown that they are clearly better overall or in a specific scenario such as third down. If Bowers were willing to come back (which by all accounts he is not), I would have no problem having him compete for and possibly be the starter. But his QBR on third down in 2017 is largely irrelevant.


Aaron Rodgers' third down play was only better if you use QB rating as the only metric. Your argument is circular because you are assuming that QBR is roughly equivalent to (or a reasonable metric of) the quality of QB play. QBR is flawed for the reasons I already stated (failure to take into account sacks, time of game, etc.). Most notably, Garbers gets no QBR credit for his running yardage.

We are comparing different years with different personnel, different schedules, and lots of other variables. Rodgers played with a dominant/healthy JJ Arrington and Marshawn Lynch, better (or healthier) wrs, and arguably an easier pathway (he was the clear starter). Garbers played with a lesser running game and without the benefit of taking first string reps for much of the year. QBR takes none of this into account.

The bottom line is that neither player has shown that they are clearly better overall or in a specific scenario such as third down. If Rodgers were willing to come back (which by all accounts he is not), I would have no problem having him compete for and possibly be the starter. But his QBR on third down in 2004 is largely irrelevant.

Point being, you have essentially made it impossible to do any kind of statistical analysis.

1. QBR is very flawed as you say. However, it is not useless. If the difference were 10 points, I'd blow it off. A 50 point differential is massive. Unless Garbers were putting up like 1500 yards rushing there is no making up that difference. The offensivie personnel was largely the same. Laird's reduced productivity and ypc continued long after he was healthy and you omit the fact that he was banged up part of last year as well. The primary reason our running game dropped off with almost the exact same personnel is that everyone was stacking the box because we couldn't pass. Add to that, we are talking about 3rd down passing downs where the percentage of play calls that are runs are small so not particularly relevant.
2. I didn't only rely on QBR. I also pointed out that our third down conversion rate was much higher in 2017.
3. Add another stat. Overall, Bowers' yards per attempt was significantly higher, even with a slightly lower completion percentage. That is because Bowers did more than just dump off plays to the back.
4. Yes I know you are gearing up to write "But yards per attempt doesn't count sacks and running yardage where Garbers has a distinct advantage" Except that if you add rushing attempts and yards into the equation, Bowers average gain in every play he ran or passed was still significantly higher than Garbers' average gain in every play he ran or passed.
5. And bottom line, we scored a lot more points in 2017.
6. You can't come up with one data point on third down success where Bowers doesn't come out on top by a good sized margin. All you have done is set up an impossible scenario to make a comparison by saying unless two quarterbacks with the exact same personnel, face the exact same personnel, under the exact same conditions, wind velocity, temperature, game attendance, etc., we can't compare them. Your arguments may mitigate but they don't make all statistics, especially overwhelming ones like a 50 disparity in QBR, irrelevant. An 84 QBR is dreadful. I'll give you an example. Brock Mansion completed 48% of his passes in his career. He had a 4.4 yards per attempt. He threw 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Those stats gave him an 85 QBR. As I said, unless he is primarily a runner and gets like 1500 yards a season, there is no way to get those stats into the ballpark of 134. It's a flawed statistic. But it isn't that flawed.
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