boredom said:OaktownBear said:boredom said:LunchTime said:The extension is a safety move for us. If he was snatched up by another program after next season, Cal only gets paid $250k. Now we probably get $5mfatmoon said:
I think you all are crazy. It's too early to give him an extension. This is a dumb move by Cal. This reminded me of the extension Tedford got. If Beau remain as the OC next season, JW will be a bust.
The cost of firing him probably isnt much higher, since his previous contract was weighted towards the last years. Cal doesnt lose much.
In other words, we dont lose much on the down side, and we gain a lot of protection on the up side.
He was absurdly underpaid as a HC because he was a new coach with no experience. Now he is paid as a mid-tier Pac12 coach. Just like a 6-8 win coach should be.
So, we gain if he doesnt bust. We dont lose much more if he does bust. We keep his pay in line with his known value. We give him more to work with to get better assistants. Win win win win.
Do we actually know what his new buyout is? I like Wilcox so far but I could see this going anywhere from "8-10 wins every year, competing for the conference when there's no great team" to "around .500 every year" to "offense still sucks, defense regresses".
It's odd to me that most people seemed to realize in real time that Dykes' extension after this type of season was a mistake and some in retrospect believe that giving Tedford an extension after better seasons than this was a mistake but this one - an extension with a doubling of salary following a 7-5 4-5 season - is universally celebrated.
Let's be fair here. First of all Wilcox is currently the lowest paid head coach in P5. Second of all, this isn't close to double. It isn't double if you take his AVERAGE salary under the old agreement, but that isn't the right metric. His salary was ramping up to $2.8 million year 5 (plus he'd get $500K for just completing the contract. I'd assume a similar ramp, but we don't know that. In any case if it's truly $3.3m, that is a 50% raise over the average remaining years on the original contract. Given that Cal paid such a low salary to start and with 2 years he is more valuable on the market, it is a fair salary
ok, he got a 50% raise. My mistake. Doesn't change my point. The buyout is important as there isn't a ton of evidence yet that Wilcox can make us a regular contender and it'd suck if we're sitting here in a year or two stuck with a mediocre or worse coaching situation because we don't have the $10M+ to make a change.
I like Wilcox and this isn't anywhere near as dumb as the Dykes extension (or the Dykes hiring which seemed like a terrible idea at the time). So far his records very similar to Dykes' post year 1 and burned out Tedford's.
For those saying we're on an upward trajectory with a high ceiling, I'm curious why you think that? It could be true, I really hope it is, but what's the evidence? After the 2003 season it was obvious we were on our way up and would be really good really soon. Right now it seems like it could go either way. Our offense got markedly worse and is now terrible. Our defense is really good and I don't know how much better it could get in the near term, especially if key guys leave early. I don't follow recruiting much but it doesn't sound like there's any surefire instant impact playmakers coming or a qb who can get the other team to have a defender line up more than 8 yards from the line of scrimmage.
This is why I disagree with you. My analysis, unlike others, is not "we're on the upswing! Lock him up before someone steals him!" I would say that your analysis is relying on his initial salary being some baseline for "competent P5 football coach". Like if he were making $1m and got a $500k raise you'd still be making the same argument because what has he done to get a 50% raise.
However, Cal got him cheap because he had no experience and no record. He was literally the lowest paid coach in P5. Essentially, it is like when you hire a kid out of college with no experience. You get him cheap, but as he gains experience his salary goes up significantly as he becaomes a full fledged worker in his field. Or you lose him.
Cal paid the right amount for no experience. Now that he has 2 competent seasons behind him they are paying the right amount for a coach with 2 years of ok results in P5. If we had hired such a coach in the first place, we would have paid more initially and wouldn't have given a 50% increase now.
