Coach Wilcox, stop reading this thread. You know doing so is not healthy. Turn the computer off.
We are 0-3 and looking at 0-5, Wilcox is on the hot seat next year
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Last: 3 yr ago by calumnus
Coach Wilcox, stop reading this thread. You know doing so is not healthy. Turn the computer off.
You didn't see that the K chili-dipped it?Big Dog said:I ran the video several times on that PAT, and while our kicker can be low, this miss is mostly on the OL. Stanford over-loaded their left, our right. Booker, a 6'4" DE lined up in the gap between center and right guard. As the right side was over-loaded, upon the snap, the right guard turned his focus to his right, leaving Booker with an easy swim move to split the center-guard gap; he was barely touched at the line, much less blocked. Booker was 2+ yards deep when the ball was kicked.StarsDoMatter said:LunchTime said:
Oregon lost to Oregon State.
Everyone placing any weight on this season should think a little harder.
Let's be serious: the absolute biggest failure coaching (and really, the only one that actually exists outside the simpleton fans mind) this season is that we didn't assign living situations in a way that a single positive test wouldn't obliterate a position group, or even a number of starters. Play calling is absolutely fine (7 YPC and morons here are crying about too many runs). ST is atrocious, but that seems to be Cal, for three coaches and how many ADs? 4 or 5? Our former ST coaches go on to do much better elsewhere. Maybeeeee our decades of NFL longsnappers and kickers was the nut, and its gone now.
Everything else is just working with an insane compressed anything-can-happen-season.
The "simpleton fans" you are referring too are just asking for a competent kicker to make an XP to tie the big game. Covid or not, this isn't much to ask from out staff.
This post is made in sarcasm, right? In a normal year, you cannot separate depth issues from the coaching staff. In 2020, you can absolutely separate depth issues from the coaching staff (and their ability to recruit). Covid-19 safety protocols wiped out 80% of our offensive line and then an in-game injury knocked out the last starter against OSU. Coaches can be blamed if they fail to recruit quality back-ups in a normal season, but entire units are not wiped out by a pandemic normally. No staff can plan for that.Unit3IdaSproul said:
You can't separate the depth problems on this team from the coaching staff. At this point, nearly all of Cal's players are JW recruits. Yet, somehow the defense has steadily lost talent and become less effective. Though the offense has improved, it still is nowhere near the top of the Pac 12. I love the 2021 class (if we can hold it), but it should not have taken 4 years to put together a solid class. The opt-outs, injuries, and COVID positives this season were unlucky, but would not have destroyed a deeper team. I still like JW and the direction of the program, but this season is not a fluke.
2020 is an anomaly. And it is an anomaly that is felt differently depending on where you play. For example, the 49ers cannot practice or play in Santa Clara for 3 weeks. Those regulations aren't hitting all NFL teams equally. The protocols of the City of Berkeley are different than pretty much any city in the country.
We had a chance to sneak into the Pac-12 championship because of Covid craziness. We also had a chance to go 0-7. Unfortunately, while I don't think a winless season will happen, we clearly missed our chance to sneak into the Pac-12 championship.
We should be thankful to have Cal football back to bring some sense of normalcy back. The seniors get a chance to play. The freshmen are getting valuable reps. It could have been a special season, but it won't be. Let's hope to avoid major injuries, get a few wins and set ourselves up for a better 2021.
Sure, taking a divot never helps, but a defender easily splitting the center-guard gap should never happen. It's the straightest line to block the kick. Even a simple brush block on Booker slows him enuf for the kick to be good.Rushinbear said:You didn't see that the K chili-dipped it?Big Dog said:I ran the video several times on that PAT, and while our kicker can be low, this miss is mostly on the OL. Stanford over-loaded their left, our right. Booker, a 6'4" DE lined up in the gap between center and right guard. As the right side was over-loaded, upon the snap, the right guard turned his focus to his right, leaving Booker with an easy swim move to split the center-guard gap; he was barely touched at the line, much less blocked. Booker was 2+ yards deep when the ball was kicked.StarsDoMatter said:LunchTime said:
Oregon lost to Oregon State.
Everyone placing any weight on this season should think a little harder.
Let's be serious: the absolute biggest failure coaching (and really, the only one that actually exists outside the simpleton fans mind) this season is that we didn't assign living situations in a way that a single positive test wouldn't obliterate a position group, or even a number of starters. Play calling is absolutely fine (7 YPC and morons here are crying about too many runs). ST is atrocious, but that seems to be Cal, for three coaches and how many ADs? 4 or 5? Our former ST coaches go on to do much better elsewhere. Maybeeeee our decades of NFL longsnappers and kickers was the nut, and its gone now.
Everything else is just working with an insane compressed anything-can-happen-season.
The "simpleton fans" you are referring too are just asking for a competent kicker to make an XP to tie the big game. Covid or not, this isn't much to ask from out staff.
I guess the reason I am not panicking is looking at the per team game stats:
First Downs - Cal 20, Stanford 16
Total Yards - Cal 393, Stanford 300
Yards Rushing - Cal 241, Stanford 95
Yards Per Carry - Cal 6.9. Stanford 2.7
Yards Passing - Cal 151, Stanford 205
Yards Per Pass - Cal 5.0, Stanford 6.4
Penalties - Cal 1, Stanford 6
Turnovers - Cal 2, Stanford 0
The difference in the final score was the two TO's and the missed extra point. So work on TO's and kicking.
First Downs - Cal 20, Stanford 16
Total Yards - Cal 393, Stanford 300
Yards Rushing - Cal 241, Stanford 95
Yards Per Carry - Cal 6.9. Stanford 2.7
Yards Passing - Cal 151, Stanford 205
Yards Per Pass - Cal 5.0, Stanford 6.4
Penalties - Cal 1, Stanford 6
Turnovers - Cal 2, Stanford 0
The difference in the final score was the two TO's and the missed extra point. So work on TO's and kicking.
Here is my main depth concern: our elite defense of 2018 and good defense of 2019 (which drove team success) were formed of mainly Dykes recruits. Since then we have lost studs like Weaver, Davis, Hawkins, Kunaszk and added one stud (Brett Johnson). There are very few new difference makers emerging on defense to replace departing talent. To me, it just seems like we are losing talent on that side of the ball.
You're right that reps are valuable, and I'm thankful we could even play football this year, but i think we need to reset expectations for 2021. In my mind, it's more of a rebuild than a reload.
You're right that reps are valuable, and I'm thankful we could even play football this year, but i think we need to reset expectations for 2021. In my mind, it's more of a rebuild than a reload.
Here is my main depth concern: our elite defense of 2018 and good defense of 2019 (which drove team success) were formed of mainly Dykes recruits. Since then we have lost studs like Weaver, Davis, Hawkins, Kunaszk and added one stud (Brett Johnson). There are very few new difference makers emerging on defense to replace departing talent. To me, it just seems like we are losing talent on that side of the ball.
You're right that reps are valuable, and I'm thankful we could even play football this year, but i think we need to reset expectations for 2021. In my mind, it's more of a rebuild than a reload.
You're right that reps are valuable, and I'm thankful we could even play football this year, but i think we need to reset expectations for 2021. In my mind, it's more of a rebuild than a reload.
It was the Wilcox staff that moved Weaver from DE to ILB and coached him up.Unit3IdaSproul said:
Here is my main depth concern: our elite defense of 2018 and good defense of 2019 (which drove team success) were formed of mainly Dykes recruits. Since then we have lost studs like Weaver, Davis, Hawkins, Kunaszk and added one stud (Brett Johnson). There are very few new difference makers emerging on defense to replace departing talent. To me, it just seems like we are losing talent on that side of the ball.
You're right that reps are valuable, and I'm thankful we could even play football this year, but i think we need to reset expectations for 2021. In my mind, it's more of a rebuild than a reload.
It was the Wilcox staff that moved Davis from CB to S and coached him up.
It was the Wilcox staff that coached up Kunaszyk & Hawkins.
I doubt any of the aforementioned players make it to the league w/o the Wilcox staff.
Several young players on defense are flashing: Tevis, Woodson, Drayden, Paster. Additionally recruiting on defense, should it hold up, looks very good this year especially on the DL. Browning (DL coach) is proving to be an excellent coach w/ good recruiting chops. It has taken a while put it appears that recruiting is starting to get better (this season may change that momentum). IMO we now need to get better recruits in the defensive backfield and OL.
Absolutely, forgot to mention how great of a job they have done developing that talent. You're completely right on that. That development is what gave me such a high expectation for this year, because I assumed they would continue to develop new players at the same rate along with an improved offense. For whatever reason, this development just hasn't kept the same pace IMO. I wouldn't call Drayden young, and Paster/Woodson still have a long way to realize their potential. The struggles of Tattersall and Deng are just another example. Totally agree with you that recruiting is encouraging and must continue, but I just wanted to point out a bit of a concerning trend.
Absolutely, forgot to mention how great of a job they have done developing that talent. You're completely right on that. That development is what gave me such a high expectation for this year, because I assumed they would continue to develop new players at the same rate along with an improved offense. For whatever reason, this development just hasn't kept the same pace IMO. I wouldn't call Drayden young, and Paster/Woodson still have a long way to realize their potential. The struggles of Tattersall and Deng are just another example. Totally agree with you that recruiting is encouraging and must continue, but I just wanted to point out a bit of a concerning trend.
Gerald Alexander was the difference (added 2-3 wins each year, especially the wins over UW) and doesn't get enough credit.UrsineMaximus said:It was the Wilcox staff that moved Weaver from DE to ILB and coached him up.Unit3IdaSproul said:
Here is my main depth concern: our elite defense of 2018 and good defense of 2019 (which drove team success) were formed of mainly Dykes recruits. Since then we have lost studs like Weaver, Davis, Hawkins, Kunaszk and added one stud (Brett Johnson). There are very few new difference makers emerging on defense to replace departing talent. To me, it just seems like we are losing talent on that side of the ball.
You're right that reps are valuable, and I'm thankful we could even play football this year, but i think we need to reset expectations for 2021. In my mind, it's more of a rebuild than a reload.
It was the Wilcox staff that moved Davis from CB to S and coached him up.
It was the Wilcox staff that coached up Kunaszyk & Hawkins.
I doubt any of the aforementioned players make it to the league w/o the Wilcox staff.
Several young players on defense are flashing: Tevis, Woodson, Drayden, Paster. Additionally recruiting on defense, should it hold up, looks very good this year especially on the DL. Browning (DL coach) is proving to be an excellent coach w/ good recruiting chops. It has taken a while put it appears that recruiting is starting to get better (this season may change that momentum). IMO we now need to get better recruits in the defensive backfield and OL.
Well I for one give him a lot of credit. He established a culture that still exists today. Curiously, he was never able to bring in a blue chip, which always surprised me given how awesome he was at developing talent. But who knows what goes through the minds of teenage recruits.rafterfan180 said:Gerald Alexander was the difference (added 2-3 wins each year, especially the wins over UW) and doesn't get enough credit.UrsineMaximus said:It was the Wilcox staff that moved Weaver from DE to ILB and coached him up.Unit3IdaSproul said:
Here is my main depth concern: our elite defense of 2018 and good defense of 2019 (which drove team success) were formed of mainly Dykes recruits. Since then we have lost studs like Weaver, Davis, Hawkins, Kunaszk and added one stud (Brett Johnson). There are very few new difference makers emerging on defense to replace departing talent. To me, it just seems like we are losing talent on that side of the ball.
You're right that reps are valuable, and I'm thankful we could even play football this year, but i think we need to reset expectations for 2021. In my mind, it's more of a rebuild than a reload.
It was the Wilcox staff that moved Davis from CB to S and coached him up.
It was the Wilcox staff that coached up Kunaszyk & Hawkins.
I doubt any of the aforementioned players make it to the league w/o the Wilcox staff.
Several young players on defense are flashing: Tevis, Woodson, Drayden, Paster. Additionally recruiting on defense, should it hold up, looks very good this year especially on the DL. Browning (DL coach) is proving to be an excellent coach w/ good recruiting chops. It has taken a while put it appears that recruiting is starting to get better (this season may change that momentum). IMO we now need to get better recruits in the defensive backfield and OL.
The first thing that goes through their minds -- do they win? Remember 5* DJ Williams said he would have been at Cal in a heartbeat if we weren't so bad (and this was during the Holmoe years yet he tried to give us a chance).UrsineMaximus said:Well I for one give him a lot of credit. He established a culture that still exists today. Curiously, he was never able to bring in a blue chip, which always surprised me given how awesome he was at developing talent. But who knows what goes through the minds of teenage recruits.rafterfan180 said:Gerald Alexander was the difference (added 2-3 wins each year, especially the wins over UW) and doesn't get enough credit.UrsineMaximus said:It was the Wilcox staff that moved Weaver from DE to ILB and coached him up.Unit3IdaSproul said:
Here is my main depth concern: our elite defense of 2018 and good defense of 2019 (which drove team success) were formed of mainly Dykes recruits. Since then we have lost studs like Weaver, Davis, Hawkins, Kunaszk and added one stud (Brett Johnson). There are very few new difference makers emerging on defense to replace departing talent. To me, it just seems like we are losing talent on that side of the ball.
You're right that reps are valuable, and I'm thankful we could even play football this year, but i think we need to reset expectations for 2021. In my mind, it's more of a rebuild than a reload.
It was the Wilcox staff that moved Davis from CB to S and coached him up.
It was the Wilcox staff that coached up Kunaszyk & Hawkins.
I doubt any of the aforementioned players make it to the league w/o the Wilcox staff.
Several young players on defense are flashing: Tevis, Woodson, Drayden, Paster. Additionally recruiting on defense, should it hold up, looks very good this year especially on the DL. Browning (DL coach) is proving to be an excellent coach w/ good recruiting chops. It has taken a while put it appears that recruiting is starting to get better (this season may change that momentum). IMO we now need to get better recruits in the defensive backfield and OL.
I think the bottom line here is that, if ANY coach in a power conference has two bad years in a row, they are on the hot seat.
Blocked place kicks are rarely the fault of the kicker and this one is on the protection. There's much to be dissatisfied with this season but Wilcox is not anywhere near the top of the list. His seat is very un-hot!StarsDoMatter said:LunchTime said:
Oregon lost to Oregon State.
Everyone placing any weight on this season should think a little harder.
Let's be serious: the absolute biggest failure coaching (and really, the only one that actually exists outside the simpleton fans mind) this season is that we didn't assign living situations in a way that a single positive test wouldn't obliterate a position group, or even a number of starters. Play calling is absolutely fine (7 YPC and morons here are crying about too many runs). ST is atrocious, but that seems to be Cal, for three coaches and how many ADs? 4 or 5? Our former ST coaches go on to do much better elsewhere. Maybeeeee our decades of NFL longsnappers and kickers was the nut, and its gone now.
Everything else is just working with an insane compressed anything-can-happen-season.
The "simpleton fans" you are referring too are just asking for a competent kicker to make an XP to tie the big game. Covid or not, this isn't much to ask from out staff.
4 years is usually the critical year, but this year will be a mulligan. Wilcox's conference record is 10-19 and unfortunately could be 10-21.
By comparison the 4 year conference records and results:
Theder 13-19 fired
Kapp 10-23-1 retained, fired next year.
Snyder 9-17-4 retained, great 1991 season followed
Gilbertson 11-21 fired
Holmoe 6-23 retained, fired next year
Tedford 20-12 enthusiastically retained
Dykes 10-26 fired
Wilcox's 4 year conference record is comparable to most Cal HCs of the last 4 decades. Only Tedford was obviously a keeper after 4 years. Only Holmoe was obviously worse (yet we retained him anyway). Theder, Gilbertson and Dykes were fired with the same or more conference wins. Snyder, Kapp and Holmoe were retained with comparable or worse conference records. The hope is Wilcox is a Snyder, poised on the brink of greatness. The fear is he is a Kapp or Holmoe, loved by Cal fans so given a 5th year but 5 years was enough.
Wilcox obviously will get a 5th year no matter what happens in this bizarre year. I think he will get an unprecedented 6th even with another year with a losing conference record. This year will be a mulligan. The fans here love him and Knowlton would never make a move without overwhelming fan/donor support (he was going to retain Wyking after all). If we have a winning conference record In year 5 or in year 6, Wilcox's contract will be extended.
By comparison the 4 year conference records and results:
Theder 13-19 fired
Kapp 10-23-1 retained, fired next year.
Snyder 9-17-4 retained, great 1991 season followed
Gilbertson 11-21 fired
Holmoe 6-23 retained, fired next year
Tedford 20-12 enthusiastically retained
Dykes 10-26 fired
Wilcox's 4 year conference record is comparable to most Cal HCs of the last 4 decades. Only Tedford was obviously a keeper after 4 years. Only Holmoe was obviously worse (yet we retained him anyway). Theder, Gilbertson and Dykes were fired with the same or more conference wins. Snyder, Kapp and Holmoe were retained with comparable or worse conference records. The hope is Wilcox is a Snyder, poised on the brink of greatness. The fear is he is a Kapp or Holmoe, loved by Cal fans so given a 5th year but 5 years was enough.
Wilcox obviously will get a 5th year no matter what happens in this bizarre year. I think he will get an unprecedented 6th even with another year with a losing conference record. This year will be a mulligan. The fans here love him and Knowlton would never make a move without overwhelming fan/donor support (he was going to retain Wyking after all). If we have a winning conference record In year 5 or in year 6, Wilcox's contract will be extended.
I am not sure why you're only looking at conference record. That definitely makes a major impact on Wilcox. His nonconference record is perfect, if I am not mistaken.calumnus said:
4 years is usually the critical year, but this year will be a mulligan. Wilcox's conference record is 10-19 and unfortunately could be 10-21.
By comparison the 4 year conference records and results:
Theder 13-19 fired
Kapp 10-23-1 retained, fired next year.
Snyder 9-17-4 retained, great 1991 season followed
Gilbertson 11-21 fired
Holmoe 6-23 retained, fired next year
Tedford 20-12 enthusiastically retained
Dykes 10-26 fired
Wilcox's 4 year conference record is comparable to most Cal HCs of the last 4 decades. Only Tedford was obviously a keeper after 4 years. Only Holmoe was obviously worse (yet we retained him anyway). Theder, Gilbertson and Dykes were fired with the same or more conference wins. Snyder, Kapp and Holmoe were retained with comparable or worse conference records. The hope is Wilcox is a Snyder, poised on the brink of greatness. The fear is he is a Kapp or Holmoe, loved by Cal fans so given a 5th year but 5 years was enough.
Wilcox obviously will get a 5th year no matter what happens in this bizarre year. I think he will get an unprecedented 6th even with another year with a losing conference record. This year will be a mulligan. The fans here love him and Knowlton would never make a move without overwhelming fan/donor support (he was going to retain Wyking after all). If we have a winning conference record In year 5 or in year 6, Wilcox's contract will be extended.
Here's looking at the coaches listed with both conference and overall record. I have included this year's three losses, but I think this year is an anomaly and should not be factored in.
Going into this year, Wilcox had over a .500 record overall. He is now one game under .500. I understand that we do not think .500 is good enough, but he came into his 4th year with a winning overall record. Tedford and Snyder both had records over .500. None of the other recent Cal coaches came close.
Conference Conf. % Overall Overall %
Theder 13-19 0.406 17-28 0.378
Kapp 10-23 0.303 20-34-1 0.370
Snyder 9-17 0.346 29-24-4 0.547
Gilbertson 11-21 0.344 20-26 0.435
Holmoe 6-23 0.207 16-39 0.291
Tedford 20-12 0.625 82-57 0.590
Dykes 10-26 0.278 19-30 0.388
Wilcox 10-17 0.370 20-21 0.488
I am disappointed by how Deng played in the first couple games, but he showed up against Stanford. I also think we have to be very careful with judging player evaluations this season. When a good chunk of the D-line is out due to Covid, I assume that has an impact on how Deng and the other linebackers perform.UrsineMaximus said:It was the Wilcox staff that moved Weaver from DE to ILB and coached him up.Unit3IdaSproul said:
Here is my main depth concern: our elite defense of 2018 and good defense of 2019 (which drove team success) were formed of mainly Dykes recruits. Since then we have lost studs like Weaver, Davis, Hawkins, Kunaszk and added one stud (Brett Johnson). There are very few new difference makers emerging on defense to replace departing talent. To me, it just seems like we are losing talent on that side of the ball.
You're right that reps are valuable, and I'm thankful we could even play football this year, but i think we need to reset expectations for 2021. In my mind, it's more of a rebuild than a reload.
It was the Wilcox staff that moved Davis from CB to S and coached him up.
It was the Wilcox staff that coached up Kunaszyk & Hawkins.
I doubt any of the aforementioned players make it to the league w/o the Wilcox staff.
Several young players on defense are flashing: Tevis, Woodson, Drayden, Paster. Additionally recruiting on defense, should it hold up, looks very good this year especially on the DL. Browning (DL coach) is proving to be an excellent coach w/ good recruiting chops. It has taken a while put it appears that recruiting is starting to get better (this season may change that momentum). IMO we now need to get better recruits in the defensive backfield and OL.
This year is about getting kids experience, getting in some game action and hopefully avoiding injuries. A few weeks ago, I would have said this was the year to win the Pac-12, but that is obviously out the window. Time to set realistic expectations for this whacky year.
He played OLB v. Furd which gave him more freedom to do his thing.adujan said:I am disappointed by how Deng played in the first couple games, but he showed up against Stanford. I also think we have to be very careful with judging player evaluations this season. When a good chunk of the D-line is out due to Covid, I assume that has an impact on how Deng and the other linebackers perform.UrsineMaximus said:It was the Wilcox staff that moved Weaver from DE to ILB and coached him up.Unit3IdaSproul said:
Here is my main depth concern: our elite defense of 2018 and good defense of 2019 (which drove team success) were formed of mainly Dykes recruits. Since then we have lost studs like Weaver, Davis, Hawkins, Kunaszk and added one stud (Brett Johnson). There are very few new difference makers emerging on defense to replace departing talent. To me, it just seems like we are losing talent on that side of the ball.
You're right that reps are valuable, and I'm thankful we could even play football this year, but i think we need to reset expectations for 2021. In my mind, it's more of a rebuild than a reload.
It was the Wilcox staff that moved Davis from CB to S and coached him up.
It was the Wilcox staff that coached up Kunaszyk & Hawkins.
I doubt any of the aforementioned players make it to the league w/o the Wilcox staff.
Several young players on defense are flashing: Tevis, Woodson, Drayden, Paster. Additionally recruiting on defense, should it hold up, looks very good this year especially on the DL. Browning (DL coach) is proving to be an excellent coach w/ good recruiting chops. It has taken a while put it appears that recruiting is starting to get better (this season may change that momentum). IMO we now need to get better recruits in the defensive backfield and OL.
This year is about getting kids experience, getting in some game action and hopefully avoiding injuries. A few weeks ago, I would have said this was the year to win the Pac-12, but that is obviously out the window. Time to set realistic expectations for this whacky year.
adujan said:I am not sure why you're only looking at conference record. That definitely makes a major impact on Wilcox. His nonconference record is perfect, if I am not mistaken.calumnus said:
4 years is usually the critical year, but this year will be a mulligan. Wilcox's conference record is 10-19 and unfortunately could be 10-21.
By comparison the 4 year conference records and results:
Theder 13-19 fired
Kapp 10-23-1 retained, fired next year.
Snyder 9-17-4 retained, great 1991 season followed
Gilbertson 11-21 fired
Holmoe 6-23 retained, fired next year
Tedford 20-12 enthusiastically retained
Dykes 10-26 fired
Wilcox's 4 year conference record is comparable to most Cal HCs of the last 4 decades. Only Tedford was obviously a keeper after 4 years. Only Holmoe was obviously worse (yet we retained him anyway). Theder, Gilbertson and Dykes were fired with the same or more conference wins. Snyder, Kapp and Holmoe were retained with comparable or worse conference records. The hope is Wilcox is a Snyder, poised on the brink of greatness. The fear is he is a Kapp or Holmoe, loved by Cal fans so given a 5th year but 5 years was enough.
Wilcox obviously will get a 5th year no matter what happens in this bizarre year. I think he will get an unprecedented 6th even with another year with a losing conference record. This year will be a mulligan. The fans here love him and Knowlton would never make a move without overwhelming fan/donor support (he was going to retain Wyking after all). If we have a winning conference record In year 5 or in year 6, Wilcox's contract will be extended.
Here's looking at the coaches listed with both conference and overall record. I have included this year's three losses, but I think this year is an anomaly and should not be factored in.
Going into this year, Wilcox had over a .500 record overall. He is now one game under .500. I understand that we do not think .500 is good enough, but he came into his 4th year with a winning overall record. Tedford and Snyder both had records over .500. None of the other recent Cal coaches came close.
Conference Conf. % Overall Overall %
Theder 13-19 0.406 17-28 0.378
Kapp 10-23 0.303 20-34-1 0.370
Snyder 9-17 0.346 29-24-4 0.547
Gilbertson 11-21 0.344 20-26 0.435
Holmoe 6-23 0.207 16-39 0.291
Tedford 20-12 0.625 82-57 0.590
Dykes 10-26 0.278 19-30 0.388
Wilcox 10-17 0.370 20-21 0.488
Agreed, I don't know why non-conference games should be excluded from his record. If you include all games then Wilcox clearly has the third-best record among all of these coaches, the other two of which were retained happily after their fourth year. It makes perfect sense in that context.
So far, his only non-conference loss is to TCU.
adujan said:I am not sure why you're only looking at conference record. That definitely makes a major impact on Wilcox. His nonconference record is perfect, if I am not mistaken.calumnus said:
4 years is usually the critical year, but this year will be a mulligan. Wilcox's conference record is 10-19 and unfortunately could be 10-21.
By comparison the 4 year conference records and results:
Theder 13-19 fired
Kapp 10-23-1 retained, fired next year.
Snyder 9-17-4 retained, great 1991 season followed
Gilbertson 11-21 fired
Holmoe 6-23 retained, fired next year
Tedford 20-12 enthusiastically retained
Dykes 10-26 fired
Wilcox's 4 year conference record is comparable to most Cal HCs of the last 4 decades. Only Tedford was obviously a keeper after 4 years. Only Holmoe was obviously worse (yet we retained him anyway). Theder, Gilbertson and Dykes were fired with the same or more conference wins. Snyder, Kapp and Holmoe were retained with comparable or worse conference records. The hope is Wilcox is a Snyder, poised on the brink of greatness. The fear is he is a Kapp or Holmoe, loved by Cal fans so given a 5th year but 5 years was enough.
Wilcox obviously will get a 5th year no matter what happens in this bizarre year. I think he will get an unprecedented 6th even with another year with a losing conference record. This year will be a mulligan. The fans here love him and Knowlton would never make a move without overwhelming fan/donor support (he was going to retain Wyking after all). If we have a winning conference record In year 5 or in year 6, Wilcox's contract will be extended.
Here's looking at the coaches listed with both conference and overall record. I have included this year's three losses, but I think this year is an anomaly and should not be factored in.
Going into this year, Wilcox had over a .500 record overall. He is now one game under .500. I understand that we do not think .500 is good enough, but he came into his 4th year with a winning overall record. Tedford and Snyder both had records over .500. None of the other recent Cal coaches came close.
Conference Conf. % Overall Overall %
Theder 13-19 0.406 17-28 0.378
Kapp 10-23 0.303 20-34-1 0.370
Snyder 9-17 0.346 29-24-4 0.547
Gilbertson 11-21 0.344 20-26 0.435
Holmoe 6-23 0.207 16-39 0.291
Tedford 20-12 0.625 82-57 0.590
Dykes 10-26 0.278 19-30 0.388
Wilcox 10-17 0.370 20-21 0.488
I used conference record because the quality of non-conference is variable and the objective is to win the conference. I used 4 years because that appears to be the deciding point. Nobody is fired after 3 years.
Wilcox is currently 10-19 in conference and 10-1 out of conference. He will need to win out to gave a winning record after 4 years.
Moreover, under Wilcox we have yet to beat a FBS team with a winning record. In our two bowl games we played two 6-6 teams, wining one and losing one (making TCU the only FBS team we played OOC that ended up with a winning record).
2017
North Carolina 3-9, 1-7 in ACC
FCS Weber State
Ole Miss 6-6, 3-5 in the SEC
2018
North Carolina 2-9, 1-7 in ACC
BYU 6-6
FCS Idaho State
Loss to 6-6 TCU in Cheezit Bowl
2019
FCS UC Davis
North Texas 4-8, 3-5 in C-USA
Ole Miss 4-8, 2-6 in SEC
Illinois 6-6, 4-5 in Big Ten
Again, I think conference record is the best way to compare relative success of a Cal coach. There should not be too much reward for beating FCS teams or penalties for taking on winning/ranked OOC teams.
Wilcox falls right into the Snyder, Kapp, Holmoe range of a guy who is well liked, people are rooting for, and is going to get another year regardless of year 4 (and I am saying year 5 too) results.
The hope is we have a breakout year like under Snyder and this time we keep him. However if we just go 3-0 OOC and 5-4 in conference everyone will he more than happy. 2021 OOC opponents are Nevada, TCU and Sacramento State. 2022 opponents are UC Davis, UNLV and Norte Dame.
Some of the comments on this thread were expected and this is one reason i would have been just as happy not playing any games this "Season".Northside91 said:Strykur said:
Unless we beat Oregon (beating Washington State means nothing) the heat is on. ***le needs to be fired tonight, what is the point of his recruiting if he can't even correct overload penetration on an extra point that had already resulted in a blocked kick.
When Cal fans say things like this, the AD is actually thinking about a contract extension. Something about integrity, sound bites, being on the right track, feeling lucky to have him and intermittent fasting.
1. COVID has played havoc with the starting lineups among many teams. The last three games Cal had 3 starting linemen out and replace by people who had not played much if at all. And it showed.Cal has been missing its premiere running back replaced much of the time by a starting Freshman.
2. Yes the Offense has been lacking but has been improving. i pointed out that with a new OC implementing a new system, there were going to be glitches even if Cal had had a Spring Camp and a Fall Camp and normal practices .
3. i pointed out that JW gets his teams ready for games and for the Season (especially the D) with practice, Practice, PRACTICE!!!!! The team has had little practice. The results are to have been expected. Break down after breakdown.
4. The team's performance so far is not a legitimate test of how the team will play in 2021 nor of the various coaches' abilities (except maybe special teams) a blocked punt vs OSU, a blocked FG and PAT vs the Furd shows an ominous inconsistency.
Maybe these can be blamed on the 3 missing Cal OLine starters.
But I think back to the Cal v. USC game of 2003 where Cal suffered a similar series of blocked kicks. To avoid a repeat of the blocked FG's the Special Teams Coach had Cal kick the game-winning FG from 2 yards farther back than usual (thus giving the ball 2 extra yards to add to its trajectory and gain a foot or two of extra height by the time it passed over the rushers at the line of scrimmage.) [At least this was JT's post-game explanation. So maybe the Special Teams Coach might have to do some serious explaining.]
Be careful using the conference record as a barometer of success. There are some on this board that might get upset with the reference. It is however accurate and IMO a point of concern.calumnus said:adujan said:I am not sure why you're only looking at conference record. That definitely makes a major impact on Wilcox. His nonconference record is perfect, if I am not mistaken.calumnus said:
4 years is usually the critical year, but this year will be a mulligan. Wilcox's conference record is 10-19 and unfortunately could be 10-21.
By comparison the 4 year conference records and results:
Theder 13-19 fired
Kapp 10-23-1 retained, fired next year.
Snyder 9-17-4 retained, great 1991 season followed
Gilbertson 11-21 fired
Holmoe 6-23 retained, fired next year
Tedford 20-12 enthusiastically retained
Dykes 10-26 fired
Wilcox's 4 year conference record is comparable to most Cal HCs of the last 4 decades. Only Tedford was obviously a keeper after 4 years. Only Holmoe was obviously worse (yet we retained him anyway). Theder, Gilbertson and Dykes were fired with the same or more conference wins. Snyder, Kapp and Holmoe were retained with comparable or worse conference records. The hope is Wilcox is a Snyder, poised on the brink of greatness. The fear is he is a Kapp or Holmoe, loved by Cal fans so given a 5th year but 5 years was enough.
Wilcox obviously will get a 5th year no matter what happens in this bizarre year. I think he will get an unprecedented 6th even with another year with a losing conference record. This year will be a mulligan. The fans here love him and Knowlton would never make a move without overwhelming fan/donor support (he was going to retain Wyking after all). If we have a winning conference record In year 5 or in year 6, Wilcox's contract will be extended.
Here's looking at the coaches listed with both conference and overall record. I have included this year's three losses, but I think this year is an anomaly and should not be factored in.
Going into this year, Wilcox had over a .500 record overall. He is now one game under .500. I understand that we do not think .500 is good enough, but he came into his 4th year with a winning overall record. Tedford and Snyder both had records over .500. None of the other recent Cal coaches came close.
Conference Conf. % Overall Overall %
Theder 13-19 0.406 17-28 0.378
Kapp 10-23 0.303 20-34-1 0.370
Snyder 9-17 0.346 29-24-4 0.547
Gilbertson 11-21 0.344 20-26 0.435
Holmoe 6-23 0.207 16-39 0.291
Tedford 20-12 0.625 82-57 0.590
Dykes 10-26 0.278 19-30 0.388
Wilcox 10-17 0.370 20-21 0.488
I used conference record because the quality of non-conference is variable and the objective is to win the conference. I used 4 years because that appears to be the deciding point. Nobody is fired after 3 years.
Wilcox is currently 10-19 in conference and 10-1 out of conference. He will need to win out to gave a winning record after 4 years.
Moreover, under Wilcox we have yet to beat a FBS team with a winning record. In our two bowl games we played two 6-6 teams, wining one and losing one (making TCU the only FBS team we played OOC that ended up with a winning record).
2017
North Carolina 3-9, 1-7 in ACC
FCS Weber State
Ole Miss 6-6, 3-5 in the SEC
2018
North Carolina 2-9, 1-7 in ACC
BYU 6-6
FCS Idaho State
Loss to 6-6 TCU in Cheezit Bowl
2019
FCS UC Davis
North Texas 4-8, 3-5 in C-USA
Ole Miss 4-8, 2-6 in SEC
Illinois 6-6, 4-5 in Big Ten
Again, I think conference record is the best way to compare relative success of a Cal coach. There should not be too much reward for beating FCS teams or penalties for taking on winning/ranked OOC teams.
Wilcox falls right into the Snyder, Kapp, Holmoe range of a guy who is well liked, people are rooting for, and is going to get another year regardless of year 4 (and I am saying year 5 too) results.
The hope is we have a breakout year like under Snyder and this time we keep him. However if we just go 3-0 OOC and 5-4 in conference everyone will he more than happy. 2021 OOC opponents are Nevada, TCU and Sacramento State. 2022 opponents are UC Davis, UNLV and Norte Dame.
6956bear said:Be careful using the conference record as a barometer of success. There are some on this board that might get upset with the reference. It is however accurate and IMO a point of concern.calumnus said:adujan said:I am not sure why you're only looking at conference record. That definitely makes a major impact on Wilcox. His nonconference record is perfect, if I am not mistaken.calumnus said:
4 years is usually the critical year, but this year will be a mulligan. Wilcox's conference record is 10-19 and unfortunately could be 10-21.
By comparison the 4 year conference records and results:
Theder 13-19 fired
Kapp 10-23-1 retained, fired next year.
Snyder 9-17-4 retained, great 1991 season followed
Gilbertson 11-21 fired
Holmoe 6-23 retained, fired next year
Tedford 20-12 enthusiastically retained
Dykes 10-26 fired
Wilcox's 4 year conference record is comparable to most Cal HCs of the last 4 decades. Only Tedford was obviously a keeper after 4 years. Only Holmoe was obviously worse (yet we retained him anyway). Theder, Gilbertson and Dykes were fired with the same or more conference wins. Snyder, Kapp and Holmoe were retained with comparable or worse conference records. The hope is Wilcox is a Snyder, poised on the brink of greatness. The fear is he is a Kapp or Holmoe, loved by Cal fans so given a 5th year but 5 years was enough.
Wilcox obviously will get a 5th year no matter what happens in this bizarre year. I think he will get an unprecedented 6th even with another year with a losing conference record. This year will be a mulligan. The fans here love him and Knowlton would never make a move without overwhelming fan/donor support (he was going to retain Wyking after all). If we have a winning conference record In year 5 or in year 6, Wilcox's contract will be extended.
Here's looking at the coaches listed with both conference and overall record. I have included this year's three losses, but I think this year is an anomaly and should not be factored in.
Going into this year, Wilcox had over a .500 record overall. He is now one game under .500. I understand that we do not think .500 is good enough, but he came into his 4th year with a winning overall record. Tedford and Snyder both had records over .500. None of the other recent Cal coaches came close.
Conference Conf. % Overall Overall %
Theder 13-19 0.406 17-28 0.378
Kapp 10-23 0.303 20-34-1 0.370
Snyder 9-17 0.346 29-24-4 0.547
Gilbertson 11-21 0.344 20-26 0.435
Holmoe 6-23 0.207 16-39 0.291
Tedford 20-12 0.625 82-57 0.590
Dykes 10-26 0.278 19-30 0.388
Wilcox 10-17 0.370 20-21 0.488
I used conference record because the quality of non-conference is variable and the objective is to win the conference. I used 4 years because that appears to be the deciding point. Nobody is fired after 3 years.
Wilcox is currently 10-19 in conference and 10-1 out of conference. He will need to win out to gave a winning record after 4 years.
Moreover, under Wilcox we have yet to beat a FBS team with a winning record. In our two bowl games we played two 6-6 teams, wining one and losing one (making TCU the only FBS team we played OOC that ended up with a winning record).
2017
North Carolina 3-9, 1-7 in ACC
FCS Weber State
Ole Miss 6-6, 3-5 in the SEC
2018
North Carolina 2-9, 1-7 in ACC
BYU 6-6
FCS Idaho State
Loss to 6-6 TCU in Cheezit Bowl
2019
FCS UC Davis
North Texas 4-8, 3-5 in C-USA
Ole Miss 4-8, 2-6 in SEC
Illinois 6-6, 4-5 in Big Ten
Again, I think conference record is the best way to compare relative success of a Cal coach. There should not be too much reward for beating FCS teams or penalties for taking on winning/ranked OOC teams.
Wilcox falls right into the Snyder, Kapp, Holmoe range of a guy who is well liked, people are rooting for, and is going to get another year regardless of year 4 (and I am saying year 5 too) results.
The hope is we have a breakout year like under Snyder and this time we keep him. However if we just go 3-0 OOC and 5-4 in conference everyone will he more than happy. 2021 OOC opponents are Nevada, TCU and Sacramento State. 2022 opponents are UC Davis, UNLV and Norte Dame.
I would hope that the most ardent Wilcox fans believe we have underperformed relative to Wilcox's potential/capabilities. After all he has achieved the results he has with one of the worst offenses in college football four years running. Even an average offense improves the team dramatically. Hopefully we get there.
How dumb are Cal fans?calumnus said:
I would hope that the most ardent Wilcox fans believe we have underperformed relative to Wilcox's potential/capabilities. After all he has achieved the results he has with one of the worst offenses in college football four years running. Even an average offense improves the team dramatically. Hopefully we get there.
Holmoe will be good once he gets a good offensive coordinator.
Braun will be good once he gets someone to coach his offense.
Tedford will be good once he gets a quarterback.
Monty will be better once he gets a recruiter.
Dykes will be good once he gets a defensive coordinator.
Wyking will be good once he teaches his team how to inbound the ball vs a press.
Wilcox will be good once he gets an offense is just another variant of this same lie that Cal fans tell themselves over and over again. The "this year doesn't count because of COVID" is another variant of that.
Stop lying to yourselves and see your programs for what they are.
LOLStrykur said:
Unless we beat Oregon (beating Washington State means nothing) the heat is on. ***le needs to be fired tonight, what is the point of his recruiting if he can't even correct overload penetration on an extra point that had already resulted in a blocked kick.
I am guessing that "special teams" as a unit has gotten in less than 25 reps. Total. Why? Because of all the COVID and other crap keeping guys out of practice.
Look, it is a lost year. There are a ton of structural reasons why this is the case - starting with lack of depth compared to the football machines.
Overall I liked a lot of what we did. The issue with the west coast offense is that it HATES negative yardage on First down. Just HATES and lack of practice means that a bunch of the dink and dump first down passing plays (essentially long handoffs) are going to have bad timing. Add in that Brown has been out - the kind of kid you WANT in the WC offense (think Roger Craig like back) and things get dicey on the O Side.
Overall I thought we outplayed OSU and Furd so overall I am as happy as I could be at 0-3. But see above - it is a lost year. Sadly that means a year of eligibility lost as well but c'est la vi.
IMO it's poor analysis to leave ANY real results out of the picture. You can adjust if you think the schedule was harder at a given time, or for weird things like this COVID year and I'd be happy to discuss all of it, but to leave out something like 1/5 to 1/4 of the games just seems foolish to me. An AD should be considering all of it when deciding whether or not to retain a coach.6956bear said:Be careful using the conference record as a barometer of success. There are some on this board that might get upset with the reference. It is however accurate and IMO a point of concern.calumnus said:adujan said:I am not sure why you're only looking at conference record. That definitely makes a major impact on Wilcox. His nonconference record is perfect, if I am not mistaken.calumnus said:
4 years is usually the critical year, but this year will be a mulligan. Wilcox's conference record is 10-19 and unfortunately could be 10-21.
By comparison the 4 year conference records and results:
Theder 13-19 fired
Kapp 10-23-1 retained, fired next year.
Snyder 9-17-4 retained, great 1991 season followed
Gilbertson 11-21 fired
Holmoe 6-23 retained, fired next year
Tedford 20-12 enthusiastically retained
Dykes 10-26 fired
Wilcox's 4 year conference record is comparable to most Cal HCs of the last 4 decades. Only Tedford was obviously a keeper after 4 years. Only Holmoe was obviously worse (yet we retained him anyway). Theder, Gilbertson and Dykes were fired with the same or more conference wins. Snyder, Kapp and Holmoe were retained with comparable or worse conference records. The hope is Wilcox is a Snyder, poised on the brink of greatness. The fear is he is a Kapp or Holmoe, loved by Cal fans so given a 5th year but 5 years was enough.
Wilcox obviously will get a 5th year no matter what happens in this bizarre year. I think he will get an unprecedented 6th even with another year with a losing conference record. This year will be a mulligan. The fans here love him and Knowlton would never make a move without overwhelming fan/donor support (he was going to retain Wyking after all). If we have a winning conference record In year 5 or in year 6, Wilcox's contract will be extended.
Here's looking at the coaches listed with both conference and overall record. I have included this year's three losses, but I think this year is an anomaly and should not be factored in.
Going into this year, Wilcox had over a .500 record overall. He is now one game under .500. I understand that we do not think .500 is good enough, but he came into his 4th year with a winning overall record. Tedford and Snyder both had records over .500. None of the other recent Cal coaches came close.
Conference Conf. % Overall Overall %
Theder 13-19 0.406 17-28 0.378
Kapp 10-23 0.303 20-34-1 0.370
Snyder 9-17 0.346 29-24-4 0.547
Gilbertson 11-21 0.344 20-26 0.435
Holmoe 6-23 0.207 16-39 0.291
Tedford 20-12 0.625 82-57 0.590
Dykes 10-26 0.278 19-30 0.388
Wilcox 10-17 0.370 20-21 0.488
I used conference record because the quality of non-conference is variable and the objective is to win the conference. I used 4 years because that appears to be the deciding point. Nobody is fired after 3 years.
Wilcox is currently 10-19 in conference and 10-1 out of conference. He will need to win out to gave a winning record after 4 years.
Moreover, under Wilcox we have yet to beat a FBS team with a winning record. In our two bowl games we played two 6-6 teams, wining one and losing one (making TCU the only FBS team we played OOC that ended up with a winning record).
2017
North Carolina 3-9, 1-7 in ACC
FCS Weber State
Ole Miss 6-6, 3-5 in the SEC
2018
North Carolina 2-9, 1-7 in ACC
BYU 6-6
FCS Idaho State
Loss to 6-6 TCU in Cheezit Bowl
2019
FCS UC Davis
North Texas 4-8, 3-5 in C-USA
Ole Miss 4-8, 2-6 in SEC
Illinois 6-6, 4-5 in Big Ten
Again, I think conference record is the best way to compare relative success of a Cal coach. There should not be too much reward for beating FCS teams or penalties for taking on winning/ranked OOC teams.
Wilcox falls right into the Snyder, Kapp, Holmoe range of a guy who is well liked, people are rooting for, and is going to get another year regardless of year 4 (and I am saying year 5 too) results.
The hope is we have a breakout year like under Snyder and this time we keep him. However if we just go 3-0 OOC and 5-4 in conference everyone will he more than happy. 2021 OOC opponents are Nevada, TCU and Sacramento State. 2022 opponents are UC Davis, UNLV and Norte Dame.
Can we stop with the "lost year" bull***** We LOST the Axe in 2020 and it will be forever noted on it with the final score of 24-23 in case you guys think what happened last Saturday somehow doesn't matter because of how this year is going.socaltownie said:Overall I thought we outplayed OSU and Furd so overall I am as happy as I could be at 0-3. But see above - it is a lost year.Strykur said:
Unless we beat Oregon (beating Washington State means nothing) the heat is on. ***le needs to be fired tonight, what is the point of his recruiting if he can't even correct overload penetration on an extra point that had already resulted in a blocked kick.
GivemTheAxe said:Some of the comments on this thread were expected and this is one reason i would have been just as happy not playing any games this "Season".Northside91 said:Strykur said:
Unless we beat Oregon (beating Washington State means nothing) the heat is on. ***le needs to be fired tonight, what is the point of his recruiting if he can't even correct overload penetration on an extra point that had already resulted in a blocked kick.
When Cal fans say things like this, the AD is actually thinking about a contract extension. Something about integrity, sound bites, being on the right track, feeling lucky to have him and intermittent fasting.
1. COVID has played havoc with the starting lineups among many teams. The last three games Cal had 3 starting linemen out and replace by people who had not played much if at all. And it showed.Cal has been missing its premiere running back replaced much of the time by a starting Freshman.
2. Yes the Offense has been lacking but has been improving. i pointed out that with a new OC implementing a new system, there were going to be glitches even if Cal had had a Spring Camp and a Fall Camp and normal practices .
3. i pointed out that JW gets his teams ready for games and for the Season (especially the D) with practice, Practice, PRACTICE!!!!! The team has had little practice. The results are to have been expected. Break down after breakdown.
4. The team's performance so far is not a legitimate test of how the team will play in 2021 nor of the various coaches' abilities (except maybe special teams) a blocked punt vs OSU, a blocked FG and PAT vs the Furd shows an ominous inconsistency.
Maybe these can be blamed on the 3 missing Cal OLine starters.
But I think back to the Cal v. USC game of 2003 where Cal suffered a similar series of blocked kicks. To avoid a repeat of the blocked FG's the Special Teams Coach had Cal kick the game-winning FG from 2 yards farther back than usual (thus giving the ball 2 extra yards to add to its trajectory and gain a foot or two of extra height by the time it passed over the rushers at the line of scrimmage.) [At least this was JT's post-game explanation. So maybe the Special Teams Coach might have to do some serious explaining.]
Moving the XP/FG placement back helps if the problem is weak blocking in the center of the line or the kicker not getting a high enough trajectory, but it also makes it easier to block the kick by coming around the ends.
Bottom line, they should be able to figure out the spot to kick that maximizes success and the kicker needs to be able to get the ball up in the air.
Sure. It sucked. It also sucked that the City of Berkeley imposed rules on the football team at variance with the rest of the state and that UCB didn't tell them to pound sand.Strykur said:Can we stop with the "lost year" bull***** We LOST the Axe in 2020 and it will be forever noted on it with the final score of 24-23 in case you guys think what happened last Saturday somehow doesn't matter because of how this year is going.socaltownie said:Overall I thought we outplayed OSU and Furd so overall I am as happy as I could be at 0-3. But see above - it is a lost year.Strykur said:
Unless we beat Oregon (beating Washington State means nothing) the heat is on. ***le needs to be fired tonight, what is the point of his recruiting if he can't even correct overload penetration on an extra point that had already resulted in a blocked kick.
LA County is on a shut down order. Guess what, USC is still playing. If you can't see why this is a very strange year to draw conclusion from I give up.
Strykur said:Can we stop with the "lost year" bull***** We LOST the Axe in 2020 and it will be forever noted on it with the final score of 24-23 in case you guys think what happened last Saturday somehow doesn't matter because of how this year is going.socaltownie said:Overall I thought we outplayed OSU and Furd so overall I am as happy as I could be at 0-3. But see above - it is a lost year.Strykur said:
Unless we beat Oregon (beating Washington State means nothing) the heat is on. ***le needs to be fired tonight, what is the point of his recruiting if he can't even correct overload penetration on an extra point that had already resulted in a blocked kick.
Since I never miss a Big Game and I wasn't there this time, it didn't happen. Just put an asterisk next to it. Problem solved.
(Yes, I am pretty much kidding.)
Bingo. And right now Wilcox is in the middle of his first. If Cal wins next year, all is forgiven. If not, well, he's earned his hot seat.Big C said:
I think the bottom line here is that, if ANY coach in a power conference has two bad years in a row, they are on the hot seat.
I see reasons to be concerned going forward, but also reasons this could in fact be a fluke. Time will tell. But no, his seat isn't hot in 2021.
That's basically where I sit. Definitely reasons for concern, but then again there were concerns before 2020 anyway. The program still showed an upward trajectory under Wilcox until this year, in which there are a LOT of mitigating circumstances.Uthaithani said:
I see reasons to be concerned going forward, but also reasons this could in fact be a fluke. Time will tell. But no, his seat isn't hot in 2021.
So it's all a big "I dunno" from me and just wait until we have a more normal season on which to evaluate.
sycasey said:That's basically where I sit. Definitely reasons for concern, but then again there were concerns before 2020 anyway. The program still showed an upward trajectory under Wilcox until this year, in which there are a LOT of mitigating circumstances.Uthaithani said:
I see reasons to be concerned going forward, but also reasons this could in fact be a fluke. Time will tell. But no, his seat isn't hot in 2021.
So it's all a big "I dunno" from me and just wait until we have a more normal season on which to evaluate.
We all agree his seat won't be hot next year.
sycasey said:IMO it's poor analysis to leave ANY real results out of the picture. You can adjust if you think the schedule was harder at a given time, or for weird things like this COVID year and I'd be happy to discuss all of it, but to leave out something like 1/5 to 1/4 of the games just seems foolish to me. An AD should be considering all of it when deciding whether or not to retain a coach.6956bear said:Be careful using the conference record as a barometer of success. There are some on this board that might get upset with the reference. It is however accurate and IMO a point of concern.calumnus said:adujan said:I am not sure why you're only looking at conference record. That definitely makes a major impact on Wilcox. His nonconference record is perfect, if I am not mistaken.calumnus said:
4 years is usually the critical year, but this year will be a mulligan. Wilcox's conference record is 10-19 and unfortunately could be 10-21.
By comparison the 4 year conference records and results:
Theder 13-19 fired
Kapp 10-23-1 retained, fired next year.
Snyder 9-17-4 retained, great 1991 season followed
Gilbertson 11-21 fired
Holmoe 6-23 retained, fired next year
Tedford 20-12 enthusiastically retained
Dykes 10-26 fired
Wilcox's 4 year conference record is comparable to most Cal HCs of the last 4 decades. Only Tedford was obviously a keeper after 4 years. Only Holmoe was obviously worse (yet we retained him anyway). Theder, Gilbertson and Dykes were fired with the same or more conference wins. Snyder, Kapp and Holmoe were retained with comparable or worse conference records. The hope is Wilcox is a Snyder, poised on the brink of greatness. The fear is he is a Kapp or Holmoe, loved by Cal fans so given a 5th year but 5 years was enough.
Wilcox obviously will get a 5th year no matter what happens in this bizarre year. I think he will get an unprecedented 6th even with another year with a losing conference record. This year will be a mulligan. The fans here love him and Knowlton would never make a move without overwhelming fan/donor support (he was going to retain Wyking after all). If we have a winning conference record In year 5 or in year 6, Wilcox's contract will be extended.
Here's looking at the coaches listed with both conference and overall record. I have included this year's three losses, but I think this year is an anomaly and should not be factored in.
Going into this year, Wilcox had over a .500 record overall. He is now one game under .500. I understand that we do not think .500 is good enough, but he came into his 4th year with a winning overall record. Tedford and Snyder both had records over .500. None of the other recent Cal coaches came close.
Conference Conf. % Overall Overall %
Theder 13-19 0.406 17-28 0.378
Kapp 10-23 0.303 20-34-1 0.370
Snyder 9-17 0.346 29-24-4 0.547
Gilbertson 11-21 0.344 20-26 0.435
Holmoe 6-23 0.207 16-39 0.291
Tedford 20-12 0.625 82-57 0.590
Dykes 10-26 0.278 19-30 0.388
Wilcox 10-17 0.370 20-21 0.488
I used conference record because the quality of non-conference is variable and the objective is to win the conference. I used 4 years because that appears to be the deciding point. Nobody is fired after 3 years.
Wilcox is currently 10-19 in conference and 10-1 out of conference. He will need to win out to gave a winning record after 4 years.
Moreover, under Wilcox we have yet to beat a FBS team with a winning record. In our two bowl games we played two 6-6 teams, wining one and losing one (making TCU the only FBS team we played OOC that ended up with a winning record).
2017
North Carolina 3-9, 1-7 in ACC
FCS Weber State
Ole Miss 6-6, 3-5 in the SEC
2018
North Carolina 2-9, 1-7 in ACC
BYU 6-6
FCS Idaho State
Loss to 6-6 TCU in Cheezit Bowl
2019
FCS UC Davis
North Texas 4-8, 3-5 in C-USA
Ole Miss 4-8, 2-6 in SEC
Illinois 6-6, 4-5 in Big Ten
Again, I think conference record is the best way to compare relative success of a Cal coach. There should not be too much reward for beating FCS teams or penalties for taking on winning/ranked OOC teams.
Wilcox falls right into the Snyder, Kapp, Holmoe range of a guy who is well liked, people are rooting for, and is going to get another year regardless of year 4 (and I am saying year 5 too) results.
The hope is we have a breakout year like under Snyder and this time we keep him. However if we just go 3-0 OOC and 5-4 in conference everyone will he more than happy. 2021 OOC opponents are Nevada, TCU and Sacramento State. 2022 opponents are UC Davis, UNLV and Norte Dame.
I still think the goal is to win the conference and in that case only conference games count. Beating three OOC patsies to win 6 or 7 games while finishing in the bottom half of the conference and going to a minor bowl is better than finishing with a losing record is not the long term goal but it will get you renewed at Cal. However, if we include ALL the games best way to take into account the wide variance in SOS is the rankings in Sagarin.
The Sagarin rankings for the last two years of the last four coaches:
Holmoe: #61 #121 fired
Tedford: #34 #73 fired
Dykes: #26 #62 fired
Wilcox: #50 #64 (#92 in recent) mulligan
Obviously perception matters. I am certain Wilcox will be our coach in 2022, no matter what our results are this and next year. He will only be on the hot seat in 2022 if next year is a bad year (#70 or above) and will be extended if either year we are #50 or below.
calumnus said:sycasey said:IMO it's poor analysis to leave ANY real results out of the picture. You can adjust if you think the schedule was harder at a given time, or for weird things like this COVID year and I'd be happy to discuss all of it, but to leave out something like 1/5 to 1/4 of the games just seems foolish to me. An AD should be considering all of it when deciding whether or not to retain a coach.6956bear said:Be careful using the conference record as a barometer of success. There are some on this board that might get upset with the reference. It is however accurate and IMO a point of concern.calumnus said:adujan said:I am not sure why you're only looking at conference record. That definitely makes a major impact on Wilcox. His nonconference record is perfect, if I am not mistaken.calumnus said:
4 years is usually the critical year, but this year will be a mulligan. Wilcox's conference record is 10-19 and unfortunately could be 10-21.
By comparison the 4 year conference records and results:
Theder 13-19 fired
Kapp 10-23-1 retained, fired next year.
Snyder 9-17-4 retained, great 1991 season followed
Gilbertson 11-21 fired
Holmoe 6-23 retained, fired next year
Tedford 20-12 enthusiastically retained
Dykes 10-26 fired
Wilcox's 4 year conference record is comparable to most Cal HCs of the last 4 decades. Only Tedford was obviously a keeper after 4 years. Only Holmoe was obviously worse (yet we retained him anyway). Theder, Gilbertson and Dykes were fired with the same or more conference wins. Snyder, Kapp and Holmoe were retained with comparable or worse conference records. The hope is Wilcox is a Snyder, poised on the brink of greatness. The fear is he is a Kapp or Holmoe, loved by Cal fans so given a 5th year but 5 years was enough.
Wilcox obviously will get a 5th year no matter what happens in this bizarre year. I think he will get an unprecedented 6th even with another year with a losing conference record. This year will be a mulligan. The fans here love him and Knowlton would never make a move without overwhelming fan/donor support (he was going to retain Wyking after all). If we have a winning conference record In year 5 or in year 6, Wilcox's contract will be extended.
Here's looking at the coaches listed with both conference and overall record. I have included this year's three losses, but I think this year is an anomaly and should not be factored in.
Going into this year, Wilcox had over a .500 record overall. He is now one game under .500. I understand that we do not think .500 is good enough, but he came into his 4th year with a winning overall record. Tedford and Snyder both had records over .500. None of the other recent Cal coaches came close.
Conference Conf. % Overall Overall %
Theder 13-19 0.406 17-28 0.378
Kapp 10-23 0.303 20-34-1 0.370
Snyder 9-17 0.346 29-24-4 0.547
Gilbertson 11-21 0.344 20-26 0.435
Holmoe 6-23 0.207 16-39 0.291
Tedford 20-12 0.625 82-57 0.590
Dykes 10-26 0.278 19-30 0.388
Wilcox 10-17 0.370 20-21 0.488
I used conference record because the quality of non-conference is variable and the objective is to win the conference. I used 4 years because that appears to be the deciding point. Nobody is fired after 3 years.
Wilcox is currently 10-19 in conference and 10-1 out of conference. He will need to win out to gave a winning record after 4 years.
Moreover, under Wilcox we have yet to beat a FBS team with a winning record. In our two bowl games we played two 6-6 teams, wining one and losing one (making TCU the only FBS team we played OOC that ended up with a winning record).
2017
North Carolina 3-9, 1-7 in ACC
FCS Weber State
Ole Miss 6-6, 3-5 in the SEC
2018
North Carolina 2-9, 1-7 in ACC
BYU 6-6
FCS Idaho State
Loss to 6-6 TCU in Cheezit Bowl
2019
FCS UC Davis
North Texas 4-8, 3-5 in C-USA
Ole Miss 4-8, 2-6 in SEC
Illinois 6-6, 4-5 in Big Ten
Again, I think conference record is the best way to compare relative success of a Cal coach. There should not be too much reward for beating FCS teams or penalties for taking on winning/ranked OOC teams.
Wilcox falls right into the Snyder, Kapp, Holmoe range of a guy who is well liked, people are rooting for, and is going to get another year regardless of year 4 (and I am saying year 5 too) results.
The hope is we have a breakout year like under Snyder and this time we keep him. However if we just go 3-0 OOC and 5-4 in conference everyone will he more than happy. 2021 OOC opponents are Nevada, TCU and Sacramento State. 2022 opponents are UC Davis, UNLV and Norte Dame.
I still think the goal is to win the conference and in that case only conference games count. Beating three OOC patsies to win 6 or 7 games while finishing in the bottom half of the conference and going to a minor bowl is better than finishing with a losing record is not the long term goal but it will get you renewed at Cal. However, if we include ALL the games best way to take into account the wide variance in SOS is the rankings in Sagarin.
The Sagarin rankings for the last two years of the last four coaches:
Holmoe: #61 #121 fired
Tedford: #34 #73 fired
Dykes: #26 #62 fired
Wilcox: #50 #64 (#92 in recent) mulligan
Obviously perception matters. I am certain Wilcox will be our coach in 2022, no matter what our results are this and next year. He will only be on the hot seat in 2022 if next year is a bad year (#70 or above) and will be extended if either year we are #50 or below.
Of course the goal is to win the conference. But we're not trying to determine who already won the conference, because if we already had that guy there would be no debate about keeping him. This is about whether or not the coach has POTENTIAL to win the conference. I think out of conference games are relevant to that analysis, especially if they are against other Power 5 teams. The conference is also bigger than it used to be, so the unbalanced conference records aren't even apples-to-apples within a season anymore, much less across eras.
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