socaltownie said:
Cause really that is the only suspense right now - does he get canned next year or the year after and we can try our hand at another guy to try to execute the rebuild.
IIRC The guy that Mike Williams hired gets one more year (next year, right?) of salary (though surely we negotiated a buy out).
You are asking the wrong question. He will absolutely get a fourth year. This is Cal. Barring something ethical, and I do not think Fox is the kind of guy to have an ethical violation, the only way he gets fired is if the players not only lose but completely and obviously tank or they walk into the AD's office en masse saying they are all leaving. Beyond Dykes straight up humiliating the AD, those are the only ways Cal coaches get fired.
The question for next year is does he get extended, for how long, and what are the buyout terms.
Cal has stupidly bought into this fiction that you can't have a coach with only 2 years on his contract because recruits will think the coach is on borrowed time. This is an immensely stupid concept for two reasons. 1. Every coach is on an annual contract. Period. Coaches get fired all the time with lots of time on their contract and recruits know that. 2. Coaches finishing in the bottom half of conference 3 years running are on the hot seat no matter what an AD says and recruits know that. The extension is just a different version of the dreaded vote of confidence.
But Cal falls for this agent ploy every time. If they don't this time it means one of two things:
1. Cal has finally gotten a brain. (HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!! Yeah, okay)
2. Knowlton has gotten the point that Mike Williams got. Winning in basketball is a money losing proposition for Cal. Firing Jones and hiring Fox at almost twice the salary plus paying Jones buyout was an incredibly stupid financial move. Since Fox's salary is set, let him coach out the string, fire him, and pay someone 6 figures to coach. It doesn't matter if that hurts recruiting because we aren't trying to win. Fox will have killed Cal basketball because his failure will have proven to the new administration that the old one was right when they hired Jones. This, believe it or not is only the second worst option.
Now the other thing Cal can do is what they usually do. Extend him with full buyout. Then, not only does he get his fourth year, but the idiot apologists will be back for 1, 2, 3, 4 years saying "we can't afford to fire him now, so he won't be fired no matter what you say. So shut up and support the team". This despite all the times people have made this argument and been proven wrong when we have paid coachs' buyouts including just paying Dykes a full, long expensive buyout, not because he failed (though he did) but because he failed and humiliated the Cal administration by getting his extension and having his agent continue to trash Cal and shop him around. Fox will continue on as coach up until the point the players lay down and die on the court and then they will find the money to fire him. If Cal does this, it is the worst worst option. It means Cal will continue to trudge along, being stupid, paying twice the cost necessary to suck as badly as they do.
The best option you can hope for is Cal does what Sandy did once with Braun. Give a contract extension, but the buyout is not increased. It either stays at one year's salary or it stays at one year salary for the remainder of the original contract and goes even lower, like $500K after the original contract expires. Cal will still be too stupid or cheap to fire him, but will show some modicum of a brain and a desire to build a program that once in a while gets to .500 in conference. After year 5, they will finally figure out that Fox can't do that and they will have temporarily learned their lesson that paying more for a Fox type coach doesn't work and they will hire a cheap coach from mid major level with the hope of only increasing his salary if he wins. That is probably a 5% chance, but it is 4.9% more than you have now.
Of course the best option is to fire him now. Second best option is to fire him after next year. Neither will happen though.