Almost no communication with fans (shouldn't they be pushing hard to get butts in seats). No social media presence to speak of (His last tweet is a meaningless picture of a sign at Oakland International). July 4th Instagram. Radio silence. Almost no excitement.

It is going to be an AWFUL season (I am again offering a bet that we have 9 or fewer wins). At that point you have to believe that they will make a chance.

Does Fox know this and is he simply playing out the string?

socaltownie said:

---

Almost no communication with fans (shouldn't they be pushing hard to get butts in seats). No social media presence to speak of (His last tweet is a meaningless picture of a sign at Oakland International). July 4th Instagram. Radio silence. Almost no excitement.

It is going to be an AWFUL season (I am again offering a bet that we have 9 or fewer wins). At that point you have to believe that they will make a chance.

Does Fox know this and is he simply playing out the string?

---

Well he does have a guaranteed seven figure a year contract. Based on the way "insiders" support him here I wouldn't be shocked if he got an extension.

many support mediocrity .. I had my questions about the hiring process and am now a strong believer that a change needs to be made, sooner rather than later

BearGreg said:

---

calumnus said:

---

socaltownie said:

---

Almost no communication with fans (shouldn't they be pushing hard to get butts in seats). No social media presence to speak of (His last tweet is a meaningless picture of a sign at Oakland International). July 4th Instagram. Radio silence. Almost no excitement.

It is going to be an AWFUL season (I am again offering a bet that we have 9 or fewer wins). At that point you have to believe that they will make a chance.

Does Fox know this and is he simply playing out the string?

---

Well he does have a guaranteed seven figure a year contract. Based on the way "insiders" support him here I wouldn't be shocked if he got an extension.

---

Not sure who qualifies as an Insider here at BI, but our view is that this is a make or break season for Coach Fox

---

Yes, I haven't detected too much Fox support over the last six months or so... from anybody.

As far as "make or break", there seems to be a gray area in the middle which would leave things in limbo. If we finish WAY in undisputed last place, with a record similar to last season's, that would be "break", barring some sort of amazing recruiting coup (and even then).

Obviously, if we were to pull off a winning conference record, that would be an incredible coaching job. "Make".

But what if something happens that is between those two? Say we finish 7-11 in conference, in 9th place. That would exceed everybody's expectations and demonstrate clear improvement from last season, but would it be enough to buy him a Year Four? My answer is "maybe", depending on how the games passed the eye test and what the recruiting class looked like. (It would be easy to say I'm setting the bar too low here and I might agree. I'm used to a low bar right now for Cal Basketball.)


The "radio silence" is ever so perplexing.

Big C said:

---

BearGreg said:

---

calumnus said:

---

socaltownie said:

---

Almost no communication with fans (shouldn't they be pushing hard to get butts in seats). No social media presence to speak of (His last tweet is a meaningless picture of a sign at Oakland International). July 4th Instagram. Radio silence. Almost no excitement.

It is going to be an AWFUL season (I am again offering a bet that we have 9 or fewer wins). At that point you have to believe that they will make a chance.

Does Fox know this and is he simply playing out the string?

---

Well he does have a guaranteed seven figure a year contract. Based on the way "insiders" support him here I wouldn't be shocked if he got an extension.

---

Not sure who qualifies as an Insider here at BI, but our view is that this is a make or break season for Coach Fox

---

Yes, I haven't detected too much Fox support over the last six months or so... from anybody.

As far as "make or break", there seems to be a gray area in the middle which would leave things in limbo. If we finish WAY in undisputed last place, with a record similar to last season's, that would be "break", barring some sort of amazing recruiting coup (and even then).

Obviously, if we were to pull off a winning conference record, that would be an incredible coaching job. "Make".

But what if something happens that is between those two? Say we finish 7-11 in conference, in 9th place. That would exceed everybody's expectations and demonstrate clear improvement from last season, but would it be enough to buy him a Year Four? My answer is "maybe", depending on how the games passed the eye test and what the recruiting class looked like. (It would be easy to say I'm setting the bar too low here and I might agree. I'm used to a low bar right now for Cal Basketball.)


The "radio silence" is ever so perplexing.

---

4th Gen is one insider I was thinking of and has been posting positive things about Fox and the team as recently as a few weeks ago. I take it as a sign of what other insiders are saying.

More than a few people have written off last year completely and blame the current state of the team on the coach we had 6 years ago. I don't think it will happen, but if we finish in 9th or 10th place someone on this board will argue he needs more time and he needs an extension for recruiting purposes. I am not sure what Knowlton will do, but unless there is a huge outcry or a donor steps forward to make a change, I think he will be very reluctant to admit he made a mistake and take another financial hit to make a change. I hope I am wrong.

Big C said:

---

BearGreg said:

---

calumnus said:

---

socaltownie said:

---

Almost no communication with fans (shouldn't they be pushing hard to get butts in seats). No social media presence to speak of (His last tweet is a meaningless picture of a sign at Oakland International). July 4th Instagram. Radio silence. Almost no excitement.

It is going to be an AWFUL season (I am again offering a bet that we have 9 or fewer wins). At that point you have to believe that they will make a chance.

Does Fox know this and is he simply playing out the string?

---

Well he does have a guaranteed seven figure a year contract. Based on the way "insiders" support him here I wouldn't be shocked if he got an extension.

---

Not sure who qualifies as an Insider here at BI, but our view is that this is a make or break season for Coach Fox

---

Yes, I haven't detected too much Fox support over the last six months or so... from anybody.

As far as "make or break", there seems to be a gray area in the middle which would leave things in limbo. If we finish WAY in undisputed last place, with a record similar to last season's, that would be "break", barring some sort of amazing recruiting coup (and even then).

Obviously, if we were to pull off a winning conference record, that would be an incredible coaching job. "Make".

But what if something happens that is between those two? Say we finish 7-11 in conference, in 9th place. That would exceed everybody's expectations and demonstrate clear improvement from last season, but would it be enough to buy him a Year Four? My answer is "maybe", depending on how the games passed the eye test and what the recruiting class looked like. (It would be easy to say I'm setting the bar too low here and I might agree. I'm used to a low bar right now for Cal Basketball.)


The "radio silence" is ever so perplexing.

---

I think the issue here is making the comparison with *last season* rather than looking at where we should be after 3 years of a new coach's tenure. If, at the time of Fox's hire, someone could have told you that in his 3rd year we would be 7-11 in conference and in 9th place, who would have been happy with that? I think we all would have agreed that was unacceptable. To me, that's the lens with which to view this. The attrition from the program (Seing, MacNeil, Vanover, and now Bradley), the inability to recruit both from the high school levels as well as from the transfer portals, the complete indifference to engaging the fan base in any way, all have to be laid at his feet. The fact that he may have the occasional win (or few wins) where the team comes together or we finish a slot or two above where our natural talent would indicate should not hide the fact that this roster is 100% his and that 7-11 should be considered a poor result for a coach in his 3rd year.

CalLifer said:

---

Big C said:

---

BearGreg said:

---

calumnus said:

---

socaltownie said:

---

Almost no communication with fans (shouldn't they be pushing hard to get butts in seats). No social media presence to speak of (His last tweet is a meaningless picture of a sign at Oakland International). July 4th Instagram. Radio silence. Almost no excitement.

It is going to be an AWFUL season (I am again offering a bet that we have 9 or fewer wins). At that point you have to believe that they will make a chance.

Does Fox know this and is he simply playing out the string?

---

Well he does have a guaranteed seven figure a year contract. Based on the way "insiders" support him here I wouldn't be shocked if he got an extension.

---

Not sure who qualifies as an Insider here at BI, but our view is that this is a make or break season for Coach Fox

---

Yes, I haven't detected too much Fox support over the last six months or so... from anybody.

As far as "make or break", there seems to be a gray area in the middle which would leave things in limbo. If we finish WAY in undisputed last place, with a record similar to last season's, that would be "break", barring some sort of amazing recruiting coup (and even then).

Obviously, if we were to pull off a winning conference record, that would be an incredible coaching job. "Make".

But what if something happens that is between those two? Say we finish 7-11 in conference, in 9th place. That would exceed everybody's expectations and demonstrate clear improvement from last season, but would it be enough to buy him a Year Four? My answer is "maybe", depending on how the games passed the eye test and what the recruiting class looked like. (It would be easy to say I'm setting the bar too low here and I might agree. I'm used to a low bar right now for Cal Basketball.)


The "radio silence" is ever so perplexing.

---

I think the issue here is making the comparison with *last season* rather than looking at where we should be after 3 years of a new coach's tenure. If, at the time of Fox's hire, someone could have told you that in his 3rd year we would be 7-11 in conference and in 9th place, who would have been happy with that? I think we all would have agreed that was unacceptable. To me, that's the lens with which to view this. The attrition from the program (Seing, MacNeil, Vanover, and now Bradley), the inability to recruit both from the high school levels as well as from the transfer portals, the complete indifference to engaging the fan base in any way, all have to be laid at his feet. The fact that he may have the occasional win (or few wins) where the team comes together or we finish a slot or two above where our natural talent would indicate should not hide the fact that this roster is 100% his and that 7-11 should be considered a poor result for a coach in his 3rd year.

---

Not entirely his roster, two players, Kelly and Anticevich, were brought in by Jones. The fact that they were secondary players but are probably our two best returning scorers and will be gone next year is concerning and likely means we will be very young next year. We have already been one of the lowest scoring teams in the country (#305) and will likely finish even lower this year and next.

calumnus said:

---

CalLifer said:

---

Big C said:

---

BearGreg said:

---

calumnus said:

---

socaltownie said:

---

Almost no communication with fans (shouldn't they be pushing hard to get butts in seats). No social media presence to speak of (His last tweet is a meaningless picture of a sign at Oakland International). July 4th Instagram. Radio silence. Almost no excitement.

It is going to be an AWFUL season (I am again offering a bet that we have 9 or fewer wins). At that point you have to believe that they will make a chance.

Does Fox know this and is he simply playing out the string?

---

Well he does have a guaranteed seven figure a year contract. Based on the way "insiders" support him here I wouldn't be shocked if he got an extension.

---

Not sure who qualifies as an Insider here at BI, but our view is that this is a make or break season for Coach Fox

---

Yes, I haven't detected too much Fox support over the last six months or so... from anybody.

As far as "make or break", there seems to be a gray area in the middle which would leave things in limbo. If we finish WAY in undisputed last place, with a record similar to last season's, that would be "break", barring some sort of amazing recruiting coup (and even then).

Obviously, if we were to pull off a winning conference record, that would be an incredible coaching job. "Make".

But what if something happens that is between those two? Say we finish 7-11 in conference, in 9th place. That would exceed everybody's expectations and demonstrate clear improvement from last season, but would it be enough to buy him a Year Four? My answer is "maybe", depending on how the games passed the eye test and what the recruiting class looked like. (It would be easy to say I'm setting the bar too low here and I might agree. I'm used to a low bar right now for Cal Basketball.)


The "radio silence" is ever so perplexing.

---

I think the issue here is making the comparison with *last season* rather than looking at where we should be after 3 years of a new coach's tenure. If, at the time of Fox's hire, someone could have told you that in his 3rd year we would be 7-11 in conference and in 9th place, who would have been happy with that? I think we all would have agreed that was unacceptable. To me, that's the lens with which to view this. The attrition from the program (Seing, MacNeil, Vanover, and now Bradley), the inability to recruit both from the high school levels as well as from the transfer portals, the complete indifference to engaging the fan base in any way, all have to be laid at his feet. The fact that he may have the occasional win (or few wins) where the team comes together or we finish a slot or two above where our natural talent would indicate should not hide the fact that this roster is 100% his and that 7-11 should be considered a poor result for a coach in his 3rd year.

---

Not entirely his roster, two players, Kelly and Anticevich, were brought in by Jones. The fact that they were secondary players but are probably our two best returning scorers and will be gone next year is concerning and likely means we will be very young next year. We have already been one of the lowest scoring teams in the country (#305) and will likely finish even lower this year and next.

---

Apologies, I used a little bit of artistic license when I said the entire roster was Fox's. If anything, it's completely damning that the two best returning players on the team in Fox's 3rd year were really 2nd tier players on the roster at the time that Jones was fired... it's actually doubly damning in that all of the better players left and Fox has been unable to recruit better players. I apologize for the lack of exactness in my initial post, but if anything, it makes Fox look even worse.

CalLifer said:

---

calumnus said:

---

CalLifer said:

---

Big C said:

---

BearGreg said:

---

calumnus said:

---

socaltownie said:

---

Almost no communication with fans (shouldn't they be pushing hard to get butts in seats). No social media presence to speak of (His last tweet is a meaningless picture of a sign at Oakland International). July 4th Instagram. Radio silence. Almost no excitement.

It is going to be an AWFUL season (I am again offering a bet that we have 9 or fewer wins). At that point you have to believe that they will make a chance.

Does Fox know this and is he simply playing out the string?

---

Well he does have a guaranteed seven figure a year contract. Based on the way "insiders" support him here I wouldn't be shocked if he got an extension.

---

Not sure who qualifies as an Insider here at BI, but our view is that this is a make or break season for Coach Fox

---

Yes, I haven't detected too much Fox support over the last six months or so... from anybody.

As far as "make or break", there seems to be a gray area in the middle which would leave things in limbo. If we finish WAY in undisputed last place, with a record similar to last season's, that would be "break", barring some sort of amazing recruiting coup (and even then).

Obviously, if we were to pull off a winning conference record, that would be an incredible coaching job. "Make".

But what if something happens that is between those two? Say we finish 7-11 in conference, in 9th place. That would exceed everybody's expectations and demonstrate clear improvement from last season, but would it be enough to buy him a Year Four? My answer is "maybe", depending on how the games passed the eye test and what the recruiting class looked like. (It would be easy to say I'm setting the bar too low here and I might agree. I'm used to a low bar right now for Cal Basketball.)


The "radio silence" is ever so perplexing.

---

I think the issue here is making the comparison with *last season* rather than looking at where we should be after 3 years of a new coach's tenure. If, at the time of Fox's hire, someone could have told you that in his 3rd year we would be 7-11 in conference and in 9th place, who would have been happy with that? I think we all would have agreed that was unacceptable. To me, that's the lens with which to view this. The attrition from the program (Seing, MacNeil, Vanover, and now Bradley), the inability to recruit both from the high school levels as well as from the transfer portals, the complete indifference to engaging the fan base in any way, all have to be laid at his feet. The fact that he may have the occasional win (or few wins) where the team comes together or we finish a slot or two above where our natural talent would indicate should not hide the fact that this roster is 100% his and that 7-11 should be considered a poor result for a coach in his 3rd year.

---

Not entirely his roster, two players, Kelly and Anticevich, were brought in by Jones. The fact that they were secondary players but are probably our two best returning scorers and will be gone next year is concerning and likely means we will be very young next year. We have already been one of the lowest scoring teams in the country (#305) and will likely finish even lower this year and next.

---

Apologies, I used a little bit of artistic license when I said the entire roster was Fox's. If anything, it's completely damning that the two best returning players on the team in Fox's 3rd year were really 2nd tier players on the roster at the time that Jones was fired... it's actually doubly damning in that all of the better players left and Fox has been unable to recruit better players. I apologize for the lack of exactness in my initial post, but if anything, it makes Fox look even worse.

---

Have to agree - recruiting has been substandard (even with difficult admission standards) and this season is critical to Fox and staff (wish he had replaced one key assistant who is only partially respected by the players). I do support the HC getting 3 seasons to prove his results and allow sufficient rebuild time. While I am incredibly loyal for Cal and the key sports of Football and Basketball, I would not be in favor of keeping our HC if we finished 9/10th or worse and an early exit in league tourney. His contract remaining and the AD personal hiring would give him the 4th year in that scenario. Team is working hard (as they should) and will be better, but I would be very surprised if that equates to a 7th place or better standing in league.

4thGenCal said:

---

CalLifer said:

---

calumnus said:

---

CalLifer said:

---

Big C said:

---

BearGreg said:

---

calumnus said:

---

socaltownie said:

---

Almost no communication with fans (shouldn't they be pushing hard to get butts in seats). No social media presence to speak of (His last tweet is a meaningless picture of a sign at Oakland International). July 4th Instagram. Radio silence. Almost no excitement.

It is going to be an AWFUL season (I am again offering a bet that we have 9 or fewer wins). At that point you have to believe that they will make a chance.

Does Fox know this and is he simply playing out the string?

---

Well he does have a guaranteed seven figure a year contract. Based on the way "insiders" support him here I wouldn't be shocked if he got an extension.

---

Not sure who qualifies as an Insider here at BI, but our view is that this is a make or break season for Coach Fox

---

Yes, I haven't detected too much Fox support over the last six months or so... from anybody.

As far as "make or break", there seems to be a gray area in the middle which would leave things in limbo. If we finish WAY in undisputed last place, with a record similar to last season's, that would be "break", barring some sort of amazing recruiting coup (and even then).

Obviously, if we were to pull off a winning conference record, that would be an incredible coaching job. "Make".

But what if something happens that is between those two? Say we finish 7-11 in conference, in 9th place. That would exceed everybody's expectations and demonstrate clear improvement from last season, but would it be enough to buy him a Year Four? My answer is "maybe", depending on how the games passed the eye test and what the recruiting class looked like. (It would be easy to say I'm setting the bar too low here and I might agree. I'm used to a low bar right now for Cal Basketball.)


The "radio silence" is ever so perplexing.

---

I think the issue here is making the comparison with *last season* rather than looking at where we should be after 3 years of a new coach's tenure. If, at the time of Fox's hire, someone could have told you that in his 3rd year we would be 7-11 in conference and in 9th place, who would have been happy with that? I think we all would have agreed that was unacceptable. To me, that's the lens with which to view this. The attrition from the program (Seing, MacNeil, Vanover, and now Bradley), the inability to recruit both from the high school levels as well as from the transfer portals, the complete indifference to engaging the fan base in any way, all have to be laid at his feet. The fact that he may have the occasional win (or few wins) where the team comes together or we finish a slot or two above where our natural talent would indicate should not hide the fact that this roster is 100% his and that 7-11 should be considered a poor result for a coach in his 3rd year.

---

Not entirely his roster, two players, Kelly and Anticevich, were brought in by Jones. The fact that they were secondary players but are probably our two best returning scorers and will be gone next year is concerning and likely means we will be very young next year. We have already been one of the lowest scoring teams in the country (#305) and will likely finish even lower this year and next.

---

Apologies, I used a little bit of artistic license when I said the entire roster was Fox's. If anything, it's completely damning that the two best returning players on the team in Fox's 3rd year were really 2nd tier players on the roster at the time that Jones was fired... it's actually doubly damning in that all of the better players left and Fox has been unable to recruit better players. I apologize for the lack of exactness in my initial post, but if anything, it makes Fox look even worse.

---

Have to agree - recruiting has been substandard (even with difficult admission standards) and this season is critical to Fox and staff (wish he had replaced one key assistant who is only partially respected by the players). I do support the HC getting 3 seasons to prove his results and allow sufficient rebuild time. While I am incredibly loyal for Cal and the key sports of Football and Basketball, I would not be in favor of keeping our HC if we finished 9/10th or worse and an early exit in league tourney. His contract remaining and the AD personal hiring would give him the 4th year in that scenario. Team is working hard (as they should) and will be better, but I would be very surprised if that equates to a 7th place or better standing in league.

---

Question: Would Knowlton agree with, "...the key sports of Football and Basketball."

I think if he pulls in Mahaney or some other stud recruit(s), he may be able to convince Knowlton to give him another year. Not convinced he can sign a difference maker, though.

4thGenCal said:

---

CalLifer said:

---

calumnus said:

---

CalLifer said:

---

Big C said:

---

BearGreg said:

---

calumnus said:

---

socaltownie said:

---

Almost no communication with fans (shouldn't they be pushing hard to get butts in seats). No social media presence to speak of (His last tweet is a meaningless picture of a sign at Oakland International). July 4th Instagram. Radio silence. Almost no excitement.

It is going to be an AWFUL season (I am again offering a bet that we have 9 or fewer wins). At that point you have to believe that they will make a chance.

Does Fox know this and is he simply playing out the string?

---

Well he does have a guaranteed seven figure a year contract. Based on the way "insiders" support him here I wouldn't be shocked if he got an extension.

---

Not sure who qualifies as an Insider here at BI, but our view is that this is a make or break season for Coach Fox

---

Yes, I haven't detected too much Fox support over the last six months or so... from anybody.

As far as "make or break", there seems to be a gray area in the middle which would leave things in limbo. If we finish WAY in undisputed last place, with a record similar to last season's, that would be "break", barring some sort of amazing recruiting coup (and even then).

Obviously, if we were to pull off a winning conference record, that would be an incredible coaching job. "Make".

But what if something happens that is between those two? Say we finish 7-11 in conference, in 9th place. That would exceed everybody's expectations and demonstrate clear improvement from last season, but would it be enough to buy him a Year Four? My answer is "maybe", depending on how the games passed the eye test and what the recruiting class looked like. (It would be easy to say I'm setting the bar too low here and I might agree. I'm used to a low bar right now for Cal Basketball.)


The "radio silence" is ever so perplexing.

---

I think the issue here is making the comparison with *last season* rather than looking at where we should be after 3 years of a new coach's tenure. If, at the time of Fox's hire, someone could have told you that in his 3rd year we would be 7-11 in conference and in 9th place, who would have been happy with that? I think we all would have agreed that was unacceptable. To me, that's the lens with which to view this. The attrition from the program (Seing, MacNeil, Vanover, and now Bradley), the inability to recruit both from the high school levels as well as from the transfer portals, the complete indifference to engaging the fan base in any way, all have to be laid at his feet. The fact that he may have the occasional win (or few wins) where the team comes together or we finish a slot or two above where our natural talent would indicate should not hide the fact that this roster is 100% his and that 7-11 should be considered a poor result for a coach in his 3rd year.

---

Not entirely his roster, two players, Kelly and Anticevich, were brought in by Jones. The fact that they were secondary players but are probably our two best returning scorers and will be gone next year is concerning and likely means we will be very young next year. We have already been one of the lowest scoring teams in the country (#305) and will likely finish even lower this year and next.

---

Apologies, I used a little bit of artistic license when I said the entire roster was Fox's. If anything, it's completely damning that the two best returning players on the team in Fox's 3rd year were really 2nd tier players on the roster at the time that Jones was fired... it's actually doubly damning in that all of the better players left and Fox has been unable to recruit better players. I apologize for the lack of exactness in my initial post, but if anything, it makes Fox look even worse.

---

Have to agree - recruiting has been substandard (even with difficult admission standards) and this season is critical to Fox and staff (wish he had replaced one key assistant who is only partially respected by the players). I do support the HC getting 3 seasons to prove his results and allow sufficient rebuild time. While I am incredibly loyal for Cal and the key sports of Football and Basketball, I would not be in favor of keeping our HC if we finished 9/10th or worse and an early exit in league tourney. His contract remaining and the AD personal hiring would give him the 4th year in that scenario. Team is working hard (as they should) and will be better, but I would be very surprised if that equates to a 7th place or better standing in league.

---

To me, this is a sign that Fox feels like his job is safe and/or Knowlton has done nothing to impress upon him the urgency of the situation. I would feel a tiny bit encouraged if Fox felt like something needed to change, or felt like he was under enough pressure that the status quo was not sufficient. But carrying on with the status quo indicates to me he is not feeling any pressure.

Seems like a lot of speculation. Regardless of personnel, if the team plays well, Fox proves himself. And, regardless of personnel, if the team plays poorly, Fox proves himself. We will all know in a few months. In two years, the play of the team has improved markedly throughout the season. Unfortunately, the loss of key players has left Fox starting over. The covid season was particularly unfortunate for the Bears.

CalLifer said:

---

bearchamp said:

---

Seems like a lot of speculation. Regardless of personnel, if the team plays well, Fox proves himself. And, regardless of personnel, if the team plays poorly, Fox proves himself. We will all know in a few months. In two years, the play of the team has improved markedly throughout the season. Unfortunately, the loss of key players has left Fox starting over. The covid season was particularly unfortunate for the Bears.

---

I don't mean to pick on you, bearchamp, but the use of the passive voice here really drives me a bit crazy. It's as if Fox was an innocent bystander to these key players leaving. Fox had the chance to keep all of these key players and he failed. Fox is 100% responsible for the players who are here and the players who left. It would be more correct to say "Fox's failure to keep his most talented players and his inability to recruit have left him with a roster that does not compare well with the rest of the league."

Do not absolve him of the situations that are of his own making.

---

Exactly. Also, the team has generally NOT improved over the course of the season. We tend to have upsets early and late, and bad losses early and late. All teams improve over the course of the season, but the metrics show most teams improve more than we do and we regress relative to the rest of college basketball.

CalLifer said:

---

Big C said:

---

BearGreg said:

---

calumnus said:

---

socaltownie said:

---

Almost no communication with fans (shouldn't they be pushing hard to get butts in seats). No social media presence to speak of (His last tweet is a meaningless picture of a sign at Oakland International). July 4th Instagram. Radio silence. Almost no excitement.

It is going to be an AWFUL season (I am again offering a bet that we have 9 or fewer wins). At that point you have to believe that they will make a chance.

Does Fox know this and is he simply playing out the string?

---

Well he does have a guaranteed seven figure a year contract. Based on the way "insiders" support him here I wouldn't be shocked if he got an extension.

---

Not sure who qualifies as an Insider here at BI, but our view is that this is a make or break season for Coach Fox

---

Yes, I haven't detected too much Fox support over the last six months or so... from anybody.

As far as "make or break", there seems to be a gray area in the middle which would leave things in limbo. If we finish WAY in undisputed last place, with a record similar to last season's, that would be "break", barring some sort of amazing recruiting coup (and even then).

Obviously, if we were to pull off a winning conference record, that would be an incredible coaching job. "Make".

But what if something happens that is between those two? Say we finish 7-11 in conference, in 9th place. That would exceed everybody's expectations and demonstrate clear improvement from last season, but would it be enough to buy him a Year Four? My answer is "maybe", depending on how the games passed the eye test and what the recruiting class looked like. (It would be easy to say I'm setting the bar too low here and I might agree. I'm used to a low bar right now for Cal Basketball.)


The "radio silence" is ever so perplexing.

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I think the issue here is making the comparison with *last season* rather than looking at where we should be after 3 years of a new coach's tenure. If, at the time of Fox's hire, someone could have told you that in his 3rd year we would be 7-11 in conference and in 9th place, who would have been happy with that? I think we all would have agreed that was unacceptable. To me, that's the lens with which to view this. The attrition from the program (Seing, MacNeil, Vanover, and now Bradley), the inability to recruit both from the high school levels as well as from the transfer portals, the complete indifference to engaging the fan base in any way, all have to be laid at his feet. The fact that he may have the occasional win (or few wins) where the team comes together or we finish a slot or two above where our natural talent would indicate should not hide the fact that this roster is 100% his and that 7-11 should be considered a poor result for a coach in his 3rd year.

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Yes, I totally get what you're saying and it is a quite reasonable perspective. Like i alluded to, my expectations have been beaten into the ground to the point where 7-11, 9th place doesn't look so bad (as a stepping stone to something better). This is why I wrote that a season like that would have to be complimented by passing an "eye test" and having an improved recruiting class lined up.

At any rate, I would describe the upcoming season as "make or break, with a little gray area in the middle".

Big C said:

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CalLifer said:

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Big C said:

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BearGreg said:

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calumnus said:

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socaltownie said:

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Almost no communication with fans (shouldn't they be pushing hard to get butts in seats). No social media presence to speak of (His last tweet is a meaningless picture of a sign at Oakland International). July 4th Instagram. Radio silence. Almost no excitement.

It is going to be an AWFUL season (I am again offering a bet that we have 9 or fewer wins). At that point you have to believe that they will make a chance.

Does Fox know this and is he simply playing out the string?

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Well he does have a guaranteed seven figure a year contract. Based on the way "insiders" support him here I wouldn't be shocked if he got an extension.

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Not sure who qualifies as an Insider here at BI, but our view is that this is a make or break season for Coach Fox

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Yes, I haven't detected too much Fox support over the last six months or so... from anybody.

As far as "make or break", there seems to be a gray area in the middle which would leave things in limbo. If we finish WAY in undisputed last place, with a record similar to last season's, that would be "break", barring some sort of amazing recruiting coup (and even then).

Obviously, if we were to pull off a winning conference record, that would be an incredible coaching job. "Make".

But what if something happens that is between those two? Say we finish 7-11 in conference, in 9th place. That would exceed everybody's expectations and demonstrate clear improvement from last season, but would it be enough to buy him a Year Four? My answer is "maybe", depending on how the games passed the eye test and what the recruiting class looked like. (It would be easy to say I'm setting the bar too low here and I might agree. I'm used to a low bar right now for Cal Basketball.)


The "radio silence" is ever so perplexing.

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I think the issue here is making the comparison with *last season* rather than looking at where we should be after 3 years of a new coach's tenure. If, at the time of Fox's hire, someone could have told you that in his 3rd year we would be 7-11 in conference and in 9th place, who would have been happy with that? I think we all would have agreed that was unacceptable. To me, that's the lens with which to view this. The attrition from the program (Seing, MacNeil, Vanover, and now Bradley), the inability to recruit both from the high school levels as well as from the transfer portals, the complete indifference to engaging the fan base in any way, all have to be laid at his feet. The fact that he may have the occasional win (or few wins) where the team comes together or we finish a slot or two above where our natural talent would indicate should not hide the fact that this roster is 100% his and that 7-11 should be considered a poor result for a coach in his 3rd year.

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Yes, I totally get what you're saying and it is a quite reasonable perspective. Like i alluded to, my expectations have been beaten into the ground to the point where 7-11, 9th place doesn't look so bad (as a stepping stone to something better). This is why I wrote that a season like that would have to be complimented by passing an "eye test" and having an improved recruiting class lined up.

At any rate, I would describe the upcoming season as "make or break, with a little gray area in the middle".

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Yeah, I totally get it. I do think that for me, if I use the lens of the trajectory from the point of his hiring, I'd think that the "gray area" would be more of a 9-9 7th/8th place finish (and even that bar might be too low). I know that the immediate reaction to last year's debacle is that 7-11 and 9th/10th seems like a miraculous turnaround, but I have to hope that Knowlton is taking more of a big picture view. I really really hope so.

Well Cal improves during the season relative to Stanford

calumnus said:

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CalLifer said:

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bearchamp said:

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Seems like a lot of speculation. Regardless of personnel, if the team plays well, Fox proves himself. And, regardless of personnel, if the team plays poorly, Fox proves himself. We will all know in a few months. In two years, the play of the team has improved markedly throughout the season. Unfortunately, the loss of key players has left Fox starting over. The covid season was particularly unfortunate for the Bears.

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I don't mean to pick on you, bearchamp, but the use of the passive voice here really drives me a bit crazy. It's as if Fox was an innocent bystander to these key players leaving. Fox had the chance to keep all of these key players and he failed. Fox is 100% responsible for the players who are here and the players who left. It would be more correct to say "Fox's failure to keep his most talented players and his inability to recruit have left him with a roster that does not compare well with the rest of the league."

Do not absolve him of the situations that are of his own making.

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Exactly. Also, the team has generally NOT improved over the course of the season. We tend to have upsets early and late, and bad losses early and late. All teams improve over the course of the season, but the metrics show most teams improve more than we do and we regress relative to the rest of college basketball.

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CalLifer said:

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I think the issue here is making the comparison with *last season* rather than looking at where we should be after 3 years of a new coach's tenure.

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This point convinces me more than all the other good points presented in this thread. My personal standard at the end of year three would be .500 in conference and an improving roster.

Shocky is an Insider within an Insider within an Insider.

Sorry folks, but even finishing in 7th place or around .500 is not enough to retain Fox. IMHO the program needs to show that it's firing on ALL cylinders by the end of the season. That includes:

• Playing well including results in the W/L column
• Dramatic Individual player improvement from three of four of (Thieman, Brown, Kuany and Thore ) who are all his guys in their THIRD year in the program.
• Shaking ALL of the rust off a bizarre Covid season
• Recruiting, recruiting, recruiting
• Engagement by Anyone in the program with the fans and an improved HAAS experience

Some may say that this is not all under his control, but HE is the head coach and making $Million+. In three years under FOX, we have seen some glimpses of competence and fodder for HOPE, but not much in results. The P12 seems to be improving and our coach needs to GAIN ground, not show incremental improvement.

calumnus said:

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socaltownie said:

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Almost no communication with fans (shouldn't they be pushing hard to get butts in seats). No social media presence to speak of (His last tweet is a meaningless picture of a sign at Oakland International). July 4th Instagram. Radio silence. Almost no excitement.

It is going to be an AWFUL season (I am again offering a bet that we have 9 or fewer wins). At that point you have to believe that they will make a chance.

Does Fox know this and is he simply playing out the string?

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Well he does have a guaranteed seven figure a year contract. Based on the way "insiders" support him here I wouldn't be shocked if he got an extension.

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"Insiders" here, and I assume you are talking about staff folks, have an influence on contract extensions? I didn't realize Knowlton had created that group of advisors....

mbBear said:

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calumnus said:

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socaltownie said:

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Almost no communication with fans (shouldn't they be pushing hard to get butts in seats). No social media presence to speak of (His last tweet is a meaningless picture of a sign at Oakland International). July 4th Instagram. Radio silence. Almost no excitement.

It is going to be an AWFUL season (I am again offering a bet that we have 9 or fewer wins). At that point you have to believe that they will make a chance.

Does Fox know this and is he simply playing out the string?

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Well he does have a guaranteed seven figure a year contract. Based on the way "insiders" support him here I wouldn't be shocked if he got an extension.

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"Insiders" here, and I assume you are talking about staff folks, have an influence on contract extensions? I didn't realize Knowlton had created that group of advisors....

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No, I was saying Knowlton won't make a move unless pushed to do so by insiders/donors. The vibe I was getting from insiders was most would view a 9th place finish (say) as "progress" and not push Knowlton to do something he doesn't want to do.

I'm curious how much fan involvement/ student involvement play a role in anything. I'm guessing it doesn't, since Haas has been pretty empty since Jaylen Brown left.

Fan disinvolvement speaks loudly to me.

BeachedBear said:

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Sorry folks, but even finishing in 7th place or around .500 is not enough to retain Fox. IMHO the program needs to show that it's firing on ALL cylinders by the end of the season. That includes:

• Playing well including results in the W/L column
• Dramatic Individual player improvement from three of four of (Thieman, Brown, Kuany and Thore ) who are all his guys in their THIRD year in the program.
• Shaking ALL of the rust off a bizarre Covid season
• Recruiting, recruiting, recruiting
• Engagement by Anyone in the program with the fans and an improved HAAS experience

Some may say that this is not all under his control, but HE is the head coach and making $Million+. In three years under FOX, we have seen some glimpses of competence and fodder for HOPE, but not much in results. The P12 seems to be improving and our coach needs to GAIN ground, not show incremental improvement.

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I don't disagree that this is where we SHOULD be eight months from now, but since there seems like such a miniscule chance that we can improve that much, why even continue like we are?

If the answer is that we couldn't afford to fire another coach after only two seasons, hey, I get that, financially, but it makes it sound like we're spinning in neutral, writing off a whole season.

Now, I realize that I'm probably not setting the bar high enough and that what I wrote above... um... barely makes sense, but my point is this: If the agreed-upon benchmarks for the upcoming season are basically UNREACHABLE by the current staff, why didn't we replace them four months ago?

This is why I'm suggesting that IF we go 7-11 or 8-10 this coming season (within reason and well out of the conference cellar) AND the team meets the "eye test" of looking reasonably well-coached with notable individual player progress AND the recruiting seems to be progressing, maybe Fox survives to Year Four.

Nice hypothetical to have, considering it's unlikely we will even be able to do that.

Big C said:

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BeachedBear said:

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Sorry folks, but even finishing in 7th place or around .500 is not enough to retain Fox. IMHO the program needs to show that it's firing on ALL cylinders by the end of the season. That includes:

• Playing well including results in the W/L column
• Dramatic Individual player improvement from three of four of (Thieman, Brown, Kuany and Thore ) who are all his guys in their THIRD year in the program.
• Shaking ALL of the rust off a bizarre Covid season
• Recruiting, recruiting, recruiting
• Engagement by Anyone in the program with the fans and an improved HAAS experience

Some may say that this is not all under his control, but HE is the head coach and making $Million+. In three years under FOX, we have seen some glimpses of competence and fodder for HOPE, but not much in results. The P12 seems to be improving and our coach needs to GAIN ground, not show incremental improvement.

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I don't disagree that this is where we SHOULD be eight months from now, but since there seems like such a miniscule chance that we can improve that much, why even continue like we are?

If the answer is that we couldn't afford to fire another coach after only two seasons, hey, I get that, financially, but it makes it sound like we're spinning in neutral, writing off a whole season.

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I think this is the key point that those of us who thought we should move on from Fox after the most recent season were trying to make. Any realistic view of the coming season (especially once Bradley transferred) would have to acknowledge that we are unlikely to reach the levels listed above, and the lack of recruiting success also means that Year 4 is likely to not meet the bar we should be meeting in Yr 4 of a new coach. So basically Cal is giving Fox a third year (or more?) to simply say we won't fire a coach after 2 years, when we for all intents and purposes know that Fox will not reach the levels he should have been held too after his 3rd year. Or maybe the admin is all-in on Football and just doesn't care about basketball. If that's the case, we should have just kept Jones (as OaktownBear has said in the past) and saved the money. Jones is def a better recruiter than Fox, so at least we could have fantasized about a higher level of recruit.

Edited:
I now see that Big C edited his post and asked the question I also just asked:

Quote:

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Now, I realize that I'm probably not setting the bar high enough and that what I wrote above... um... barely makes sense, but my point is this: If the agreed-upon benchmarks for the upcoming season are basically UNREACHABLE by the current staff, why didn't we replace them four months ago?

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Maybe it is because Knowlton doesn't want to have the stink of replacing two successive coaches after two years (though we know that doing the same thing worked wonders on the Farm when they hired Harbaugh). Maybe he doesn't care. Maybe all of his focus is on football and he can't be bothered about basketball. Maybe he likes Fox too much and can't pull the trigger despite the clear need to replace him.

It's so sad that Cal hoops has deteriorated this far for us to be debating how bad of a season it will take to get a new coach.

You mean like we've done for every coach but Monty?

philbert said:

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It's so sad that Cal hoops has deteriorated this far for us to be debating how bad of a season it will take to get a new coach.

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Or that an objectively bad season (7-11, ninth place) might be enough to keep our current coach.