BearSD said:
ducky23 said:
BearSD said:
ducky23 said:
Sure, they could still beat the warriors, but it would require the dubs to turn over the ball like crazy and absolutely fail to rebound anything.
This is exactly what happened in the play-in game last season when the Grizzlies beat the Warriors.
I mean…sure. But last year the warriors were the 8th seed and this year they are currently the title favorites, so it's possible they could be a slightly better team this year.
And again, it's a 7 game series. **** can happen in a one game series.
I'd put the W's probability of winning a series against Memphis at 60%. Not 80 or 90%.
I don't think anyone thinks the dubs are 90% to win the series. Right now, they are -200, which is roughly a little over 65% which seems more or less right to me. If maybe a tad low.
Again, I think what most people forget is that regular season basketball is COMPLETELY different than playoff basketball. During the regular season, you consistently get half ass efforts from most teams, there is almost zero game planning and there are certainly no game to game adjustments being made as in a 7 game series. I mean, in the past, the warriors would even hide certain looks or strategies against certain teams so they could save it for the playoffs.
So there are some teams who are going to be much better in the playoffs than the regular season because of style of play/personnel (Boston, mil, warriors) and some who will be worse (Memphis, Utah).
Even before the playoffs started I believed Memphis was slightly overrated when compared to their regular season performance. The playoffs tend to be more grind it out. More half court. More strategy and adjustments. Depth is less relevant. Centers are less relevant (unless you have an elite one). Playoffs are More about BBIQ and experience. It's why a young team (no matter how talented) almost never wins a title.
After watching every game of their series, Memphis absolutely looks like a regular season team. Now, it could have just been the matchup against minn but this is what I saw from Memphis
- very young and very inexperienced. And very poor basketball IQ. Constantly missing assignments, taking bad shots, etc
- adams (their best offensive rebounder) was played off the court
- Ja looks hurt. He shot sub 40% for the series. No way that can happen against the dubs
- Ja is a complete liability on defense. He got hunted relentlessly
-JJJ can't stay on the court, especially if adams isn't playing besides him
- Memphis has zero strategy and made zero adjustments. Say what you want about Denver, but they made numerous game by game adjustments
- Memphis was shockingly bad at guarding the PnR, especially considering they switch everything. But again, a lot of that has to do with hunting Ja
- Memphis is even worse in the half court then a thought. They have one shooter (bane) but if you put him on an island, I don't see how Memphis scores in the half court unless Ja plays significantly better. They have no other shooters or creators. Zero.
- the only player I saw who outperformed his reg season performance was Brandon Clarke. He's an absolute beast and probably the only reason Memphis was able to squeak out that series. Bane and jones were also as advertised.
- minn thoroughly outplayed Memphis the majority of the series. It basically took a historic collapse (no team has ever lost three double digit leads in the 4thq in the playoffs ever) for Memphis to survive
I just don't think Memphis has the experience or the mental fortitude to beat the most playoff tested team left in the field. The playoffs is a grind. You have to focus every possession. Memphis doesn't seem at all prepared for that. And their coach doesn't seem at all prepared to go against a very savvy GS coaching staff who know all the tricks.
I mean, yes the warriors will be outrebounded and at times their turnovers are going to drive Kerr crazy. This is just a given. But for the warriors to lose a 7 game series, they will have to play very poorly. They will have to beat themselves. And I just don't see the core 3 letting that happen.
I could be wrong though. I'm curious what you saw from watching the MInn series that makes you think Memphis is such a poor matchup for the warriors.